Hey guys.

 

First time being on the boards for many years. I've been a poster here since the early 2000s.

 

I was curious as to when you thought this team might be a competitive, playoff-caliber team once more. Will it be in 3 years? 5 years?

 

I wanted to take a second to reflect on the years leading up to the 2003 championship.

 

You may remember that many of the pieces that made up the 2003 team had already been in place for quite a few years.

 

Luis Castillo - Since 1996

Derrek Lee and Alex Gonzalez - Since 1998

A.J. Burnett and Mike Lowell - Since 1999

 

Essentially, all our starting infielders in 2003 were already with the team in 1999.

 

This young core not only grew into highly talented players, but talented players who built great chemistry with one another.

 

Following the 2005 salary dump, it seemed the Marlins wanted to take another stab at building a young nucleus, this time around Hanley, Cabrera, Dontrelle, Uggla, J.J, Hermida, Willingham, and Nolasco. Though most had one or two solid seasons in their own right, those pieces never propelled the team to the postseason and thus were traded away little by little (except Nolasco).

 

The only Marlin who's had any longevity on this team has been Ricky Nolasco and maybe Chris Coghlan (since 2009). Everyone else has been on the team for 3 seasons or fewer.

 

So in addition to predicting what year the team will be competitive, who do you think will comprise the next "core" of this team? Fernandez, Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, and Marisnick? Do you think these guys have the potential to be bona fide stars who can make Miami a winning ballclub again?

I think they could be a contender by 2015/2016 if guys like Yelich, Diestrich, Marisnick, Fernandez, Heaney, Turner can match their potential or become above average MLB players.

A long time from now.

2015/2016, yeah.

If Loria does sell by 2015, then 2016-2017 is a good bet. If Loria hangs on to the team....could be decades. He'll trade all of the young guys as soon as he has to pay them any money, so I doubt we will be too competitive as long as he is around.

In the year 2525 with Zager and Evans...

Competitive? As in being capable of winning 81 games?

 

Next year.

 

Beyond the addition of Yelich, maybe Ozuna, Marisnick and others plus young pitchers with another year of experience, some are overlooking the 25 mill increase in the national TV deal next year. Not to mention that we have to pay 8 mill less next year for guys who aren't here. An extra 33 mill goes a long way when that's about the current payroll.

 

Probably 50% of the current roster will be gone, replaced with actual talent, not rejects and over-the-hill guys.

 

Contending, as in 85-90 wins probably takes another year or two beyond '14.

a) Winning 81 games does not = competitive.

b) lol

Winning 81 games does not = competitive.

 

 

Absolutely it does, being as likely to win as to lose on any given day -- 50/50 -- is the very definition of "competitive."

 

As opposed to not currently being even close to being competitive -- we stand a 75 to 80% chance of losing on any given day.

 

And as also opposed to being a "contender" -- to approach a 60% win rate -- an entirely different deal than merely being "competitive," which is why I drew the distinction.

Winning 81 games does not = competitive.

 

 

Absolutely it does, being as likely to win as to lose on any given day -- 50/50 -- is the very definition of "competitive."

 

 

 

 

It's the very definition of mediocrity.

Either works. And mediocrity defines about 50% of MLB -- you know, teams that are actually competitive, but not necessarily in contention.

 

Both beat "miserable losers" who have trouble winning 30% of the time.

I disagree. "Miserable losers" can get you Strasburg's and Harper's come draft time if you're lucky.

 

Also, you really sound a lot like David Samson sometimes.

Competitive to me is being in a playoff spot or very close to it. A.500 team is Not competitive in my eyes. Sorry but Marlins fans shouldn't hope for a competitive team if it only means playing around .500 ball. My standards are set way higher with the definition of competitive.

I disagree. "Miserable losers" can get you Strasburg's and Harper's come draft time if you're lucky.

 

 

Sure, but miserable losers are miserable losers. Right now, not years from now. Which is different from merely competitive/mediocre, which is different from contender. Which was my point.

 

That is, unless words have lost all meaning.

Competitive to me is being in a playoff spot or very close to it.

 

 

Yup. 81 wins -- being "competitive" (or mediocre, if you prefer) -- is "very close to it." Maybe closer than you think.

 

San Diego made the play-offs in 2005 winning 82 games. Cards won 83 games in 2006 and won the WS. Dodgers made it with 84 in 2008. Royals 84 in 1984. Astros 84 in 1997. Twins 85 in 1987 and won the WS. Indians 86 in 1997. Twins 87 in 2009. Tigers 88 in 2012. Orioles 88 in 1996. Braves 88 in 2001. White Sox 89 in 2008.

 

Baseball is a funny game. Just being "competitive" -- able to win half of your games puts you within spitting distance of the play-offs. Win a few more and you may be there. Win 10 more and you almost certainly are there.

Competitive? As in being capable of winning 81 games?

 

Next year.

 

Beyond the addition of Yelich, maybe Ozuna, Marisnick and others plus young pitchers with another year of experience, some are overlooking the 25 mill increase in the national TV deal next year. Not to mention that we have to pay 8 mill less next year for guys who aren't here. An extra 33 mill goes a long way when that's about the current payroll.

 

Probably 50% of the current roster will be gone, replaced with actual talent, not rejects and over-the-hill guys.

 

Contending, as in 85-90 wins probably takes another year or two beyond '14.

 

 

Your sense of humor had previously escaped my notice

2015

2016

2013

3 years after Jeffy L sells

Sometime after 2015, which will hopefully be when Loria gets the hell out of town.

 

I'm concerned that this could be extended, however, as odds are Stanton gets traded within the calendar year, and I'm not very confident about the long-term status of the pitching. Turner has been very disappointing, and just like with Andrew Miller, I'm worried that we got swindled by Dombrowski yet again. Other guys acquired via trade, such as Nicolino and Eovaldi, are either way too far away to be important to the team for awhile, or are probably going to be average. No standout pitchers are on this team except Fernandez, who hopefully adjusts to being thrown into the fire so soon into his career and becomes a long-term ace. But it's way too soon to say.

 

Yelich SHOULD be good, but I've heard mixed things about Marisnick and someone like Ozuna is still a wild-card.

 

I don't think this team is going to be good enough to make a sustained playoff run in 2015 barring the pitching prospects all reaching potential (which basically never happens), or whoever's in charge bringing in guys to fill in the holes in the lineup/rotation.

 

Overall I don't see the same depth of talent in the system that existed in 2006, or even 2010. The FO cheapening out on the draft has really hurt this team long-term, and they haven't been major players on the international market, either.

Sometime after 2015, which will hopefully be when Loria gets the hell out of town.

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly... What will guarantee that the human baseball team wrecking ball will even sell the team by then?

Well I'm hoping that once the clause in the stadium deal to give a portion of the sale price of the team to the city of Miami expires, he'll be more willing to consider leaving. But I still find it unlikely.

the day we fire Beinfest, and reorganize our front office.

3 years after Jeffy L sells

 

 

3 years might be conservative but I think this is the answer right here.