The difference between "decent" and "more than decent" power is trivial once you understand that's his only plus attribute and that it's likely to diminish on account of his terrible plate discipline when he faces more major league pitching.

 

As for the walk rate, there is nothing showing improvement outside of the stint in the minors after his demotion this season. His major and minor league track record as a whole shows horrible plate discipline--that easily trumps what he did in a somewhat brief time in AA in 2013. The numbers are rather conclusive on this and there's nothing in the peripheral data indicating that he's likely to improve. If you think that the BB% is going to improve in the majors, you will have to provide more evidence.

 

I would rather end this debate here. I find him a prospect to be excited about. If he has a chance to start this season and improves, we will see what he does with it.

The difference between "decent" and "more than decent" power is trivial once you understand that's his only plus attribute and that it's likely to diminish on account of his terrible plate discipline when he faces more major league pitching.

 

As for the walk rate, there is nothing showing improvement outside of the stint in the minors after his demotion this season. His major and minor league track record as a whole shows horrible plate discipline--that easily trumps what he did in a somewhat brief time in AA in 2013. The numbers are rather conclusive on this and there's nothing in the peripheral data indicating that he's likely to improve. If you think that the BB% is going to improve in the majors, you will have to provide more evidence.

 

Which you can't ignore. It's his most recent performance and he didn't just improve his plate discipline, it looked like his strength rather than his weakness. I agree his past doesn't suggest he'll keep that up, but players do improve...

The difference between "decent" and "more than decent" power is trivial once you understand that's his only plus attribute and that it's likely to diminish on account of his terrible plate discipline when he faces more major league pitching.

 

As for the walk rate, there is nothing showing improvement outside of the stint in the minors after his demotion this season. His major and minor league track record as a whole shows horrible plate discipline--that easily trumps what he did in a somewhat brief time in AA in 2013. The numbers are rather conclusive on this and there's nothing in the peripheral data indicating that he's likely to improve. If you think that the BB% is going to improve in the majors, you will have to provide more evidence.

 

Which you can't ignore. It's his most recent performance and he didn't just improve his plate discipline, it looked like his strength rather than his weakness. I agree his past doesn't suggest he'll keep that up, but players do improve...

If you want to analyze the numbers responsibly, you can definitely bracket that as an outlier because it is far removed from the rest of his career numbers at every level of professional baseball. The sample size is also incredibly small. His K% rate also didn't drop at all, either, which suggests to me that he didn't improve his discipline and that the BB% is more likely a fluke.

Why do we suck so much?

And more importantly, why is every thread a Derek Dietrich analysis thread now?

Because Wild Card thinks he's the next big thing!

I guess Dietrich should be considered among the ranks of Keys and Cox now. It would be nice to have to explain to Wild Card for once why he's underrating a player instead of overrating one.

Trumbo is a very nice player; I would love to make this move happen.

I guess Dietrich should be considered among the ranks of Keys and Cox now. It would be nice to have to explain to Wild Card for once why he's underrating a player instead of overrating one.

 

Being optimistic about my favorite team is simply more exciting than being negative. And many here other than myself also agree, Derek Dietrich IS a player to be a excited about. If you disagree, good for you, continue to sulk about our dim future as a franchise... That sounds like fun...

I guess Dietrich should be considered among the ranks of Keys and Cox now. It would be nice to have to explain to Wild Card for once why he's underrating a player instead of overrating one.

 

Being optimistic about my favorite team is simply more exciting than being negative. And many here other than myself also agree, Derek Dietrich IS a player to be a excited about. If you disagree, good for you, continue to sulk about our dim future as a franchise... That sounds like fun...

Being irrationally optimistic does nobody any good. It just sets you up for massive disappointment.

I guess Dietrich should be considered among the ranks of Keys and Cox now. It would be nice to have to explain to Wild Card for once why he's underrating a player instead of overrating one.

 

Being optimistic about my favorite team is simply more exciting than being negative. And many here other than myself also agree, Derek Dietrich IS a player to be a excited about. If you disagree, good for you, continue to sulk about our dim future as a franchise... That sounds like fun...Right there with you, Wild Card. I like the potential in Dietrich, fiery guy with spunk. Yah ok he needs to learn the strike zone and maybe he won't, but I'm willing to show more patience with him that some of the fantasy GM wannabes on this board with their sabermetic weegie boards. I don't accept this one-trick pony nonsense that his only value is his extra base/HR power and then that somehow this special attribute in a second baseman should somehow be diminished. As far as I'm concerned I don't see him hurting us in the field, he did OK in my book and has decent range. I also won't overlook the fact that when this kid got called up last year, and sure it was premature in terms of his development, our lineup was bereft of any power. Stanton was out. It was his bat that largely provided whatever power and clutch hitting we had, so much so that barely into his big league career he was batting 3rd. I think it put a lot of pressure on him, and combined with the pressure this fiery kid put on himself, to get the big hit and try to be a key RBI producer in a lineup that had no punch at all, he got down on himself, developed some bad habits and began chasing way too many pitches out of the strike zone. Unfortunately, he slumped and wasn't able to turn it around.

In a more balanced lineup, I think Dietrich would do well and I for one hope he gets that chance. I like the kid.

I also won't overlook the fact that when this kid got called up last year, and sure it was premature in terms of his development, our lineup was bereft of any power. Stanton was out. It was his bat that largely provided whatever power and clutch hitting we had, so much so that barely into his big league career he was batting 3rd. I think it put a lot of pressure on him, and combined with the pressure this fiery kid put on himself, to get the big hit and try to be a key RBI producer in a lineup that had no punch at all, he got down on himself, developed some bad habits and began chasing way too many pitches out of the strike zone. Unfortunately, he slumped and wasn't able to turn it around.

In a more balanced lineup, I think Dietrich would do well and I for one hope he gets that chance. I like the kid.

 

100% in agreement. I think the circumstances were far from ideal, and he did what he could for quite a bit, but he probably put a bunch of pressure on himself and tried to hit everything they threw at him. I agree completely that in a normal lineup where it's not all on his shoulders he should do much better.

 

To the disappointment of El Penguino, I AM very excited about Derek Dietrich. I guess it's that irrational optimism.

You guys make some valid points, but I just don't see the same upside that you guys do. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Kelly Johnson to play 2B for the Marlins in 2013, and he would come cheaper than Mark Ellis.

You guys make some valid points, but I just don't see the same upside that you guys do. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Kelly Johnson to play 2B for the Marlins in 2013, and he would come cheaper than Mark Ellis.

 

I feel like Kelly Johnson is a seriously good comparison for the kind of player Dietrich might be, actually. VERY similar players. They even had very similar rookie seasons, at the exact same age of 23... That may be a very good player to pay attention to when trying to evaluate Dietrich.

 

With that said, I think Johnson is on the wrong side of his career at 31, having him and Dietrich would be super redundant.

You guys make some valid points, but I just don't see the same upside that you guys do. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Kelly Johnson to play 2B for the Marlins in 2013, and he would come cheaper than Mark Ellis.

 

I feel like Kelly Johnson is a seriously good comparison for the kind of player Dietrich might be, actually. VERY similar players. They even had very similar rookie seasons, at the exact same age of 23... That may be a very good player to pay attention to when trying to evaluate Dietrich.

 

With that said, I think Johnson is on the wrong side of his career at 31, having him and Dietrich would be super redundant.

If you look at the peripherals for plate discipline, they weren't similar at all.

You guys make some valid points, but I just don't see the same upside that you guys do. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Kelly Johnson to play 2B for the Marlins in 2013, and he would come cheaper than Mark Ellis.

 

I feel like Kelly Johnson is a seriously good comparison for the kind of player Dietrich might be, actually. VERY similar players. They even had very similar rookie seasons, at the exact same age of 23... That may be a very good player to pay attention to when trying to evaluate Dietrich.

 

With that said, I think Johnson is on the wrong side of his career at 31, having him and Dietrich would be super redundant.

If you look at the peripherals for plate discipline, they weren't similar at all.

So because one area of their games aren't identical, that means they aren't similar? It just means they aren't exactly the same.

 

And again, Kelly Johnson had the luxury of probably batting 8th in a stacked Braves lineup. Derek Dietrich was batting third. Kelly Johnson's plate discipline also hasn't been super consistent during his career, either...

You guys make some valid points, but I just don't see the same upside that you guys do. I would rather take a chance on a guy like Kelly Johnson to play 2B for the Marlins in 2013, and he would come cheaper than Mark Ellis.

 

I feel like Kelly Johnson is a seriously good comparison for the kind of player Dietrich might be, actually. VERY similar players. They even had very similar rookie seasons, at the exact same age of 23... That may be a very good player to pay attention to when trying to evaluate Dietrich.

 

With that said, I think Johnson is on the wrong side of his career at 31, having him and Dietrich would be super redundant.

If you look at the peripherals for plate discipline, they weren't similar at all.

So because one area of their games aren't identical, that means they aren't similar? It just means they aren't exactly the same.

 

And again, Kelly Johnson had the luxury of probably batting 8th in a stacked Braves lineup. Derek Dietrich was batting third. Kelly Johnson's plate discipline also hasn't been super consistent during his career, either...

Plate discipline is a major component of a hitter's identity. If two hitters are far apart in that respect, they really aren't that similar. Otherwise you are just looking at power numbers, which is a lazy comparison.

 

And I don't see how position in the line-up would have any bearing on this whatsoever. Johnson hasn't always had a high walk rate, but he has largely been capable of maintaining double digits, which is something that Dietrich never projects to be capable of doing.

 

In his rookie year, Johnson swung at 22% of pitches outside of the zone. Dietrich swung at 40%.

Basically, no two players can be "VERY similar" (your words), if their plate discipline is so far apart.

 

I'm guessing that you didn't even bother to look at those figures before you made that comparison.

This reminds me of the Luis Castillo/Bonifacio comparison.

This reminds me of the Luis Castillo/Bonifacio comparison.

They both wore #1, both played second base, both switch-hit, both had speed, and were both Dominican, they're practically the same player.

I think bringing up Bonifacio/Castillo here is dumb. I don't think he meant Bonifacio would be a similar player to Castillo.

I think bringing up Bonifacio/Castillo here is dumb. I don't think he meant Bonifacio would be a similar player to Castillo.

 

Absolutely correct. There were similarities between both players that I simply observed.

 

I don't think we should disregard the comparison between Dietrich and Johnson simply because one walks more. El Penguino also seems to forget that while Johnson walked more during his age 23 rookie year, Dietrich had superior power. They're not identical players, but their minor league numbers were similar, their rookie years were similar, and they're both left-handed power hitting second basemen.

 

They are, absolutely, worth comparing. Not saying Dietrich will be as good as Kelly Johnson was in his prime, but probably the most comparable player you're going to find.

I don't think we should disregard the comparison between Dietrich and Johnson simply because one walks more. El Penguino also seems to forget that while Johnson walked more during his age 23 rookie year, Dietrich had superior power.

 

This really shows your complete lack of any ability to contextualize statistics. The discrepancy between the numbers shows that Johnson had some noticeable plate discipline while Dietrich had none. But the difference between their power numbers was not very substantial.

They are both 2B, they are both left-handed and they are both white. Thus, they are similar. Deal with it!

They're not identical players, but their minor league numbers were similar, their rookie years were similar, and they're both left-handed power hitting second basemen.

 

The bolded parts aren't true.

 

It also may be worth reminding you that scouts and statistics doubt Dietrich's ability to stay at second base.