They will sell out the games against Boston and New York (Yanks) next year to boost the overall attendance but the average will be interesting otherwise.

 

To reach the Wolverine targets, they'll need 200,000 a game for the Yanks and Red Sox.....lots of standing room only. Pack em in like sardines at the Budweiser Bar and poolside. Maybe a clothing optional promotion to attract all lechers. Buffoons.  

 

 

Either the Wolverine report shows the dishonesty in the, may I say Loria tactic of crying poverty, ownership group or the report is a horrible example of financial projections gone wrong and made up.  I have no idea how they could make the report and actually use assumptions of attendance as high as they did.  Might as well project World Series revenues for next year-that would be just as much a fantasy.  Reminds me of the old investment partnerships sold by scam attorneys and promoters.

 

 

Keeping everyone but Dee and adding one or two of Chatwood/Chacin level pitchers to this team (which is what they could have afforded with this hypothetical budget) would not turn them into a contender. Not happening under any scenario. Criticize their goals of increasing attendance, which do seem specious at best and I agree with you it's silly, but the keeping together the team narrative isn't an informed one. The decision to trade out the guys is unarguably the right move. That team was never going to win without Fernandez and healthy Chen/Volquez. It's sad, but it is what is is. Loria drove the farm into the ground through lack of spending on picks and IFA, and they need to shed all of their assets that have under 5 years of club control to bring in young pitching and build around Yelich.

 

So to answer your question, it's the attendance. They should have expected the backlash even if its the smart baseball move. None of this matters if they build a longterm winner in 2-3 years though, which is what their focus should be. Blame Loria at every opportunity and be cold hearted building a longterm sustainable winner.

 

Their projected attendance increase in 2 years is only 15 million more than this year. That buys, what, one decent (not all-star) pitcher? Baseball revenue is not tremendously affected by attendance. It’s the bad tv contract and the lack of a name on the building. 

 

To reiterate, the Marlins won 77 games last year with a negative WAR for the pitching staff. With a pitching staff like the Braves had hast year - not exactly world beaters - they would have been in the playoff hunt. There’s nobody in the entire organization now - nobody - who projects to be an MVP-caliber player down the line. They just traded two of them for pitchers who nobody thinks can be aces and players nobody thinks will ever hit enough to be better than Sierra, whose ceiling seems to be Juan Pierre. The guys who will be the stars of the next Marlins playoff team are not in the organization right now, and won’t be ready until about 2022-3.

 

 

The Wolverine project doesn't show them crying poverty because it was written up way before they owned the team... to me it shows their unrealistic and borderline delusional projections. 

 

I think they have great plans for this franchise I just don't think they realize how difficult their targets currently are to achieve. That's what the problem here is. 

 

 

They would have had to added $60 million in payroll to keep building on this core and give them a fighting chance, and then it would have likely all fallen apart just like 98 because its non sustainable for more than a year or two. Maybe 97/03 would have happened again, which I mean would be great, but likely not and then the cycle repeats itself and we're back to where we are now.

 

I agree with your comment they need to get the public perception of the team going in a positive direction. They need to sell this rebuild significantly better and not have Jeter being semi-sarcastic in a town hall saying it needs to happen with a smirk. He's right, but this shouldn't be that hard of a sell when Straily is your ace and your 4th/5th SP are Peters and Caleb Smith? No offense to them, but that's not Verlander/Keuchel/McCullers.

 

I just can't see how throwing money on a losing team inspires confidence.

 

Regardless, I think the move is signing Realmuto for 5 years so you have something positive to talk about and focus on him and Yelich being the new core. It's not fixing things overnight, but it's a start and shows a longterm vision that you're building even when selling. 

 

Believe me I agree with you from a business/baseball perspective. It would be putting lipstick on a pig to add to last years team. But the fans should have been the first priority. cause the more interest there is, the more thy make in ticket/concession revenue and most importantly, higher ratings equals big time TV deal. Which as we all know is what is really fueling these super teams. So that’s why I think that despite it being stupid to do it, it was a necessary evil.

 

 

Believe me I agree with you from a business/baseball perspective. It would be putting lipstick on a pig to add to last years team. But the fans should have been the first priority. cause the more interest there is, the more thy make in ticket/concession revenue and most importantly, higher ratings equals big time TV deal. Which as we all know is what is really fueling these super teams. So that’s why I think that despite it being stupid to do it, it was a necessary evil.

 

That might work for teams like the Dodgers Yankees and Cubs but throwing more money at this team "for the fans" wasn't gonna create any additional revenue. It was not a necessary evil for the Marlins. It wasn't increasing anything for them. Only 820,000 paid tickets were sold in 2017 when we had our highest payroll ever, the MVP, a 60 home run chase, the All Star game, and even things like Ichiro and the positive community support after Jose's death. 

 

 

To reach the Wolverine targets, they'll need 200,000 a game for the Yanks and Red Sox.....lots of standing room only. Pack em in like sardines at the Budweiser Bar and poolside. Maybe a clothing optional promotion to attract all lechers. Buffoons.  

 

Don't forget that Latin music. Vital to the plan.

 

 

That might work for teams like the Dodgers Yankees and Cubs but throwing more money at this team "for the fans" wasn't gonna create any additional revenue. It was not a necessary evil for the Marlins. It wasn't increasing anything for them. Only 820,000 paid tickets were sold in 2017 when we had our highest payroll ever, the MVP, a 60 home run chase, the All Star game, and even things like Ichiro and the positive community support after Jose's death. 

 

We’ll agree to disagree on this one man cause I still believe the number one priority was to change public perception of the team. There have already been 2-3 generations of fans that should have built some kind of tradition of following the team and passing it on to their kids. But every two years there’s some new bullshit going on that pretty much ruins it for everyone who isn’t suffering from this odd variation of Stockholm syndrome we all suffer from on here. 

 

 

To reiterate, the Marlins won 77 games last year with a negative WAR for the pitching staff. With a pitching staff like the Braves had hast year - not exactly world beaters - they would have been in the playoff hunt. There’s nobody in the entire organization now - nobody - who projects to be an MVP-caliber player down the line. They just traded two of them for pitchers who nobody thinks can be aces and players nobody thinks will ever hit enough to be better than Sierra, whose ceiling seems to be Juan Pierre. The guys who will be the stars of the next Marlins playoff team are not in the organization right now, and won’t be ready until about 2022-3.

 

Marlins had 5.9 WAR pitching last year, but that is besides the point.

 

So you want to eliminate Gordon (3.3 WAR), meaning the Marlins would need to add minimum 14+ wins to their team to get into the wild card race. The top free agent pitchers last year:

 

Darvish 3.5 WAR

 

Arrieta 2.4 WAR

 

Lynn 1.4 WAR

 

Cobb 2.4 WAR

 

Chatwood 1.1 WAR

 

Chacin 2.3 WAR

 

So your plan is basically, they would need to spend $125+ million on one of Arrieta or Darvish and hope they revert to older form and throw a 5+ WAR season (of course, I am ignoring why would they sign with Miami), then sign two more SP and hope they match last year's production/improve and throw 2.5 WAR seasons, then hope Prado/Rojas/Anderson/Dietrich/Bour all make up Dee's production from 2018, and then have no regression from Stanton, Ozuna, and Realmuto who all had the best seasons of their career. 

 

This isn't a realistic plan with them throwing, minimum, $200 million in longterm pitching contracts to players, and in a best case scenario, they get into a wild card discussion for a season before they have to trade out more assets because arbitration 2019 would look scary.

 

I appreciate you wishing they could have kept the team together, but it is a lot more difficult than just having a blanket statement of "get some pitchers."

 

 

Believe me I agree with you from a business/baseball perspective. It would be putting lipstick on a pig to add to last years team. But the fans should have been the first priority. cause the more interest there is, the more thy make in ticket/concession revenue and most importantly, higher ratings equals big time TV deal. Which as we all know is what is really fueling these super teams. So that’s why I think that despite it being stupid to do it, it was a necessary evil.

 

That is delaying the inevitable - for all 800,000 paid tickets. Then the same criticism will happen when they trade Ozuna and Stanton next offseason for less of a return.

 

Cut the cord, tank 2018, and build a winner.

 

 

That is delaying the inevitable - for all 800,000 paid tickets. Then the same criticism will happen when they trade Ozuna and Stanton next offseason for less of a return.

 

Cut the cord, tank 2018, and build a winner.

 

I get that part, I do! Lol but then we end up in this same situation. A team worth watching, but no one around to watch it. No one came in ‘09 either. But we blamed the stadium. Now what?

 

 

I still believe the number one priority was to change public perception of the team.

 

You think public perception of this team would have changed had they kept the 2017 team together and "went for it" again? 

 

 

I get that part, I do! Lol but then we end up in this same situation. A team worth watching, but no one around to watch it. No one came in ‘09 either. But we blamed the stadium. Now what?

 

It's like any brand, they have to build trust with the consumer by building something consistent. The 2017 team isn't a short or longterm winner. You just have to blow it up and have a good PR blitz explaining what is going on. They have failed as to the later of those so far, but they have plenty of time until opening day to start a new narrative. Hopefully around a Yelich/signed Realmuto core and being able to point to a vastly improved farm with a dozen young SP candidates in the minors.

 

 

Hopefully around a Yelich/signed Realmuto core and being able to point to a vastly improved farm with a dozen young SP candidates in the minors.

 

So your suggestion is that the Marlins do keep them both? What if they do receive an offer too good to pass up? Personally I would like them both on the team as well. I would prefer the Marlins absorb some money on bad contracts but can also try and see if the value goes up by the Trade deadline.

 

 

Marlins had 5.9 WAR pitching last year, but that is besides the point.

 

So you want to eliminate Gordon (3.3 WAR), meaning the Marlins would need to add minimum 14+ wins to their team to get into the wild card race. The top free agent pitchers last year:

 

Darvish 3.5 WAR

 

Arrieta 2.4 WAR

 

Lynn 1.4 WAR

 

Cobb 2.4 WAR

 

Chatwood 1.1 WAR

 

Chacin 2.3 WAR

 

So your plan is basically, they would need to spend $125+ million on one of Arrieta or Darvish and hope they revert to older form and throw a 5+ WAR season (of course, I am ignoring why would they sign with Miami), then sign two more SP and hope they match last year's production/improve and throw 2.5 WAR seasons, then hope Prado/Rojas/Anderson/Dietrich/Bour all make up Dee's production from 2018, and then have no regression from Stanton, Ozuna, and Realmuto who all had the best seasons of their career. 

 

This isn't a realistic plan with them throwing, minimum, $200 million in longterm pitching contracts to players, and in a best case scenario, they get into a wild card discussion for a season before they have to trade out more assets because arbitration 2019 would look scary.

 

I appreciate you wishing they could have kept the team together, but it is a lot more difficult than just having a blanket statement of "get some pitchers."

 

1) Got my info from baseball reference. I don't want to get rid of Dee, but I figure that the return of Prado would help defray the loss of Gordon.

 

2) Part of the problem, of course, is the dead money on Chen, Tazawa, Ziegler, and Volquez. Maybe the Marlins don't have the resources of the big clubs, which can eat bad contracts, but in the long run a 30 million dollar short-term loss means nothing when you take club appreciation into account.

 

3) Stanton, Ozuna, and Realmuto had the best years of their careers because they are now in their peak performance years of 26-30. Bill James found that for a majority of players the peak is 27. 2018 will be the 27-year-old season for Realmuto and Ozuna, while Stanton just had his.

 

4) Let's do a hypothetical. You're a FA starting pitcher. You look at the Marlins roster from 2017 and see one of the two-best hitting teams in the NL but no pitching. You see a park that's very friendly to pitchers - your 3.8 ERA elsewhere could be a 3.2 ERA here, especially if you're a fly ball pitcher. You see Derek Jeter running the club, after Jeter has announced that he's not concerned about short-term losses and wants to win right away in an attempt to generate fan, corporate and TV interest. You see a state with no state income tax, which is even a bigger deal now that the new GOP tax bill became law. So why not come here?

 

5) Now contrast that with what Jeter has actually done. Once he decides to increase the payroll, some time in the late 2030s, why would any FA want to come here? Still no fan support. There's no history of keeping players, so there's no reason to think your 5-year contract will be spent in Miami if things don't work out. And Project Wolverine makes it clear that financial considerations are much more important than baseball considerations.

 

6) For years and years the club argued that the team could be competitive if only South Florida built the Marlins a brand new ballpark. That park has been built, yet there's no reason to believe that this club under Jeter/Sherman will ever raise the payroll to even the league median, which last year was 135 million.

 

 

For years and years the club argued that the team could be competitive if only South Florida built the Marlins a brand new ballpark. That park has been built, yet there's no reason to believe that this club under Jeter/Sherman will ever raise the payroll to even the league median, which last year was 135 million.

 

Those arguments were made by the previous ownership, not by Jeter and Sherman. So why is there no reason to believe Jeter and Sherman will ever raise payroll to league median? 

 

 

Project Wolverine makes it clear that financial considerations are much more important than baseball considerations.

 

This was a leaked document that was provided to potential investors, of course it would focus on financial considerations.

 

 

The problem is merely tanking 2018 won't solve anything. Building the Astros way lost 416 games in 4 years, and required drafting both very high and well for several years and spending money in the international market. So sure, let's build the Astros way and we'll see in 2023 if things start to get better.

 

Or, if you like, we can build the Cubs way, which included 3 bad years - though not nearly as bad as the Astros, eating tens of millions of dollars in dead weight / traded players and, once things got better, raising the salary by 60 million from '15 to '16.

 

 

This was a leaked document that was provided to potential investors, of course it would focus on financial considerations.

 

Yes, but lying on that type of document can have some pretty dire consequences. And when you add to that is has been reported that there will be no cash calls, it's clear that financial concerns are the priority.

 

 

Yes, but lying on that type of document can have some pretty dire consequences.

 

How did they lie? They could end up wrong, but it wasn't a lie to project. It is a prediction. Investors know there are risks.

 

 

Those arguments were made by the previous ownership, not by Jeter and Sherman. So why is there no reason to believe Jeter and Sherman will ever raise payroll to league median? 

 

I would say because they dropped payroll to match revenue, and are pretty much banking almost 100% of their success on their hopes that people will show up (as it says in that wolverine crap). So when the reality check Hits them, and no one shows up, they will continue that excuse. I’m sure the loria administration had the same high hopes/expectations. I just don’t think you can convince a broke ass, welfare, section 8, food stamp selling family to spend $50-$100 on a weekday to take their family to see a baseball game. The demographic here is horrible. 

 

 

I just don’t think you can convince a broke ass, welfare, section 8, food stamp selling family to spend $50-$100 on a weekday to take their family to see a baseball game. The demographic here is horrible. 

 

Woah... The family you described is not a fair representation of the demographic here. There is a market here but the welfare family you described isn't it. Not even close. 

 

 

Woah... The family you described is not a fair representation of the demographic here. There is a market here but the welfare family you described isn't it. Not even close. 

 

Dude it’s a lot better representation than you think. Clearly I’m exaggerating, but a lot of this city is low income immigrants with much more important things to spend their money on than games-it is what it is. I know because I’m a real estate developer and knowing the demographics of the areas I build in is how I know how much I can sell for and who I’m selling to. Apart from pockets of wealthy areas, it’s pretty bad for the most part man.

 

 

Dude it’s a lot better representation than you think. Clearly I’m exaggerating, but a lot of this city is low income immigrants with much more important things to spend their money on than games-it is what it is. I know because I’m a real estate developer and knowing the demographics of the areas I build in is how I know how much I can sell for and who I’m selling to. Apart from pockets of wealthy areas, it’s pretty bad for the most part man.

 

Does it represent the people who flocked to Miami Heat games for several years until just recently? The people who filled Marlins Park for the World Baseball Classic and the All Star game? The people who loaded up Hard Rock Stadium for the Hurricanes this season? The people who get all excited about the Dolphins every year? Because those are the people that the Marlins need to attract. The "broke ass" families you described do exist but they are not the ones who are gonna create the market that the Marlins need but the market IS out there. Every city has poor people, that doesn't mean a sports team can't still thrive there. 

 

 

That argument is silly. The Heat play in an arena nearby and sell the place out at I believe higher prices.

 

Dude I was given free heat tickets at the mall yesterday for listening to some guy tell me about a vacation club and giving him my email address. Plus basketball is the number one growing sport right now and baseball is trending in the other direction so it’s only gonna get worse.