The Yankees with their plethora of A grade farm talent should have parted with at least one of those pieces, and I'd say two of them, and if it took the Sherman-Jeter group having to kick in more than 35M to make that happen they should have done it.

 

I don't think spending $30+ million in cash on an additional prospect is a good idea. That probably buys you another Guzman. That's a lot of money for a Guzman. Spend that in IFA/overslot draft to get a signability problem guy. Spread the risk.

 

Also to mention, a WAR in free agency is $10 million, so pre-opt out Stanton is worth let's say 6 WAR a season (he's averaged under 5 last 4 years, but we'll bump him up to 6 as he is entering his peak and he should be good for that even when the inevitably 40 game injury comes. So he's worth $180 million in a fair estimate, being paid $77 million, so Stanton is give/take, worth around $110 million in surplus value. (ESPN values him $200+, so let's say a range is $100-130 million eye of the beholder).

 

But what if he doesn't opt out? He's getting older. ESPN did an analysis (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21446022/projecting-giancarlo-stanton-2018-27-seasons-potential-landing-spot). 2021-2027, they think Stanton gets 25+ WAR. So he's worth $250+ million, contract pays $218. So Stanton might reasonably be worth another $30+ million in surplus value over the backend of his deal. That moves up to $60+ million as the Marlins are kicking in money.

 

So, our scenarios:

 

Opt-Out - Stanton is worth $100-130 million

No Opt-Out - Stanton is worth $160-190 million, including Marlins money

 

The caveat here is, if he doesn't opt out, gets hurt, or goes all Pujols (7.6 WAR last 5 seasons WOOF), his contract is crushing even for the Yankees. That surplus value could drop quickly into the red. The lowest 5 year stretch of Stanton in ESPN's projection is 15 WAR - double Pujols (who was an amazing -2.0 last year).

 

How do you value that risk? It's MASSIVE risk. MASSIVE! Likewise, how do you value only a few teams can take that risk, as it's not like KC could trade for him.

 

I think you have to slice his values in half (which I know is unscientific) as that contract is a potential albatross. So a pre-opt out Stanton is worth $50-$65 million in surplus value, and maybe $65-80 million if he doesn't opt out (not including Marlins $30 million kicked in, which is $95-110 then).

 

So this brings us to Castro, Guzman, and Devers. Let's call Guzman a FV50 pitcher and Devers a FV45 hitter - $25 million in surplus value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/). Castro is probably good for 4 WAR the next 2 years entering his peak, minus his contract, he's worth probably $20+, and he has an option, so let's bump him up another $10 million in potential real value/or likely draft pick compensatory draft pick. So he's $30 million.

 

It's really not a bad trade when you crunch those numbers, with a note that if you don't slice his value in half because of that contract, it doesn't work. He's a massive contractual liability to me. There has to be some value reduction given the potential scope of the deal. If anything, they should have gotten another "Yamamoto" level guy added.

 

I don't mind the deal so much. Ozuna, they should have gotten a better player, but Stanton not so much to me. 

 

Where it becomes a bad trade - for both the Yankees and Marlins - if he doesn't opt out. Yankees get killed if something happens to him risk wise. Marlins get crushed because they have to spend $30 million more, AND don't get the benefit of theoretically another $30+ million in surplus value (which is basically another Guzman and another Devers). That would make it terrible, but we won't know for 3 years.

 

Let's hope he opts out for that Dodger blue. To Stanton's health the next 3 years. Cheers.

 

 

They'll dodge 100 if they keep everyone they currently have until the deadline, sign a veteran OF and # 4 SP who is useful, and then Brinson, Anderson, Sierra, Peters, Gallen, and the rest of them can pick up the slack as immediate productive MLB players when they get called up to replace guys.

 

However, I don't expect that to happen as I expect at least 2-3 more preseason trades, someone (like Prado, Dietrich, Rojas, whoever) totally bombs, and some prospect(s) aren't going to work out at least immediate.

 

I'll take the under on 64.5 right now pending further moves, but the strong over that the team is doing the right thing scorching earth.

 

I keep seeing you talk about Rojas but hes not gonna get you anything, we dont have any SS's who are gonna be up in the next 2 years at the very least, and he's under team control for 3 more years.  Dietrich and Prado i can see bringing back some value at the deadline, but given our current SS outlook in the system id run out a platoon of Rojas and Riddle the whole year and just reevaluate the position next year.

 

 

Also, given Stanton's contract and his NTC and according to that Jeter article a complete lack of interest from any teams on his list besides the Yankees, I think there is a chance we did really well in that deal.  Guzman has front of the rotation potential and I think will really rise up those rankings by midseason when he establishes himself in full season ball, Devers appears to be incredibly well regarded by both Denbo who would know and various scouts according to that Barry Jackson article, plus we can still hopefully flip Castro for a mid level prospect or 2 at the deadline.

 

You can talk about how they handled the situation and we've already all pretty much beaten that into the ground, but i dont think they did terribly given the confluence of shitty circumstances (NTC, biggest contract in sports history, none of the teams he would accept a trade to were interested) i think they didnt do as bad as its made out to be.  

 

 

I ran into a Texas Rangers fan at work and asked him if he remembered a prospect named Brinson.  The guy said he was sad to see Brinson go to Milwaukee and that when he gets enough experience and figures it out, he will be a helluva player.  Had nothing but high praise.   Take it for what it's worth.

 

 

I ran into a Texas Rangers fan at work and asked him if he remembered a prospect named Brinson.  The guy said he was sad to see Brinson go to Milwaukee and that when he gets enough experience and figures it out, he will be a helluva player.  Had nothing but high praise.   Take it for what it's worth.

 

by all accounts Brinson is an 80 makeup guy.  Between the makeup and being from down here it would really be huge if he worked out. At the very least his enthusiasm for actually being part of this organization is a really nice change from the past.  Not that i blame any of the previous guys given the shit show they had to endure, but Brinson and then hopefully we could sign that Cuban OF'er and that would be 2 great building blocks for various reasons.

 

 

A lot of great quotes and Jeter also gives his side of the story for many things that he says have been falsely reported on such as the dismissal of the 4 special assistants, the firing of Marty Scott, the details on the Stanton trade and the thought of him being threatened, and so much more.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/07/derek-jeter-miami-marlins?utm_campaign=sinow&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

 

Just to play devils advocate, if all of the accusations or criticism were true, do you think they would admit it?  There's always three sides to each story.  Each side's story and then the truth.  The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.  I believe that Jeter is an egomaniac and I believe at lot of what was reported is probably true.  

 

Now, I'm all on board with the plan at this point, I mean I really didn't have much choice, but my point is that I'm done criticising the plan.  However, I will never buy that Jeter is infallible.  I'm not even sure that he is going to get this right.  For God's sake he still has Hill as GM.  

 

I hope for the Marlins and our sake that Jeter gets it right and I'm cheering the team on but I will never have respect for Jeter.  #FuckJeter #GoMarlins 

 

 

Just to play devils advocate, if all of the accusations or criticism were true, do you think they would admit it?  There's always three sides to each story.  Each side's story and then the truth.  The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.  I believe that Jeter is an egomaniac and I believe at lot of what was reported is probably true.  

 

Now, I'm all on board with the plan at this point, I mean I really didn't have much choice, but my point is that I'm done criticising the plan.  However, I will never buy that Jeter is infallible.  I'm not even sure that he is going to get this right.  For God's sake he still has Hill as GM.  

 

I hope for the Marlins and our sake that Jeter gets it right and I'm cheering the team on but I will never have respect for Jeter.  #FuckJeter #GoMarlins 

 

Has literally anyone ever argued that Jeter is infallible?  You might not like Jeter but never have respect for him?  Thats a little much.  

 

 

Honestly curious why you think this. 

 

It’s reaallly hard to only win 62 games in a MLB season.  

 

I mean, 81 games are at home.  

 

And I think new ownership is terrified of 100 losses.  

 

 

It’s reaallly hard to only win 62 games in a MLB season.  

 

I mean, 81 games are at home.  

 

And I think new ownership is terrified of 100 losses.  

 

I dont think new ownership is terrified of 100 losses at all, but i agree that people dont understand how hard it is to lose 100 games in a year.  Go look at those astros teams that lost over 100 games for 3 straight years to begin their rebuild.  Its scary bad.

 

 

and of course barry jackson ends last night with another snarky tweet about the article.

 

 

and of course barry jackson ends last night with another snarky tweet about the article.

 

At this point I can only assume Jeter ignored interview requests from Barry during his career.

 

 

[No message]

At this point I can only assume Jeter ignored interview requests from Barry during his career.

 

its absurd.  theres a fine line between valid criticism and a clear vendetta and a need to criticize everything.

 

 

geez Barry 

 

 

List of people that I need to check their reactions if the rebuild works:

 

1. Barry Jackson

 

2. Joel Sherman

 

3. taiwanmarlin

 

(feel free to add your own names to extend the list)

 

 

List of people that I need to check their reactions if the rebuild works:

 

1. Barry Jackson

 

2. Joel Sherman

 

3. taiwanmarlin

 

(feel free to add your own names to extend the list)

 

I think you know I accept this rebuilding already…

 

 

I think you know I accept this rebuilding already…

 

As out of character as that is for you, I'm glad you're aboard... I still can't wait to see how happy you are if all of this works. 

 

 

I think you know I accept this rebuilding already…

 

When did this happen!!!?

 

 

When did this happen!!!?

 

Apparently when he said he would leave 100 times but never left. 

 

 

Taiwan is a true fan who was just frustrated and didn't know if he wanted to wake up at dawn to watch the marlins while they lose 100 games. He persisted though. 

 

Makes "people" like D*s look even worse.

 

 

I keep seeing you talk about Rojas but hes not gonna get you anything, we dont have any SS's who are gonna be up in the next 2 years at the very least, and he's under team control for 3 more years.  Dietrich and Prado i can see bringing back some value at the deadline, but given our current SS outlook in the system id run out a platoon of Rojas and Riddle the whole year and just reevaluate the position next year.

 

Rojas has 2.6 WAR in just over 800 PA. Can't sell him that short. A solid 1.5+ WAR defensive SS over a full season could be a trade chip. I'm not saying definitely move him, but he's expendable if he shows something and someone wants him as he's not a longterm guy, just a premium bench guy.

 

 

Adeiny got us Braxton Lee and Ethan Clark. Before the Yelich trade they were rated as our 13th and 33rd best prospects (so they'll be moved down a bit in an updated one) http://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/miami-marlins-2018-top-50-prospects/ And Braxton Lee could very well be in our OF at some point this year or even starting things out depending how the Marlins decide to go with veteran FA signings. And at the time Adeiny was making 4.35MM so we wanted to dump that salary and did so on the Rays.

 

Adeiny WAR history -  2014 + .3  / 2015 + 3.1 / 2016 +.5 and in 2017 had a combined +1.3 between us and the Rays. 2015 was his best offensive and defensive season and he seemed to be putting it all together but in 2016 he had his worst offensive season.

 

Rojas WAR history - 2014 for the Dodgers +.3 and then with the Marlins 2015 +.8 / 2016 +.1 / 2017 +1.4 Of course he has far less at bats than Adeiny and small sample size but Rojas had a very respectable batting line of .290/.361/.375 over the 2017 season and anytime you can get a guy with an OPS over .700 playing SS with a good glove, that's VERY valuable. And he's about to make USD 1.2MM this year with two more arbitration years of control. Maybe he doesn't have the name recognition that Adeiny had but in terms of actual baseball value/WAR and money. You could argue that he's even more valuable than Adeiny. But to confirm this, he needs more at bats and be an everyday player.

 

 

Rojas has 2.6 WAR in just over 800 PA. Can't sell him that short. A solid 1.5+ WAR defensive SS over a full season could be a trade chip. I'm not saying definitely move him, but he's expendable if he shows something and someone wants him as he's not a longterm guy, just a premium bench guy.

 

Fair enough.

 

 

List of people that I need to check their reactions if the rebuild works:

 

1. Barry Jackson

 

2. Joel Sherman

 

3. taiwanmarlin

 

(feel free to add your own names to extend the list)

 

Hopefully you’re not implying that over the course of the last 3-4 months that no one had the right to be completely annoyed/frustrated/devastated by another FIRE SALE.  

 

 

Hopefully you’re not implying that over the course of the last 3-4 months that no one had the right to be completely annoyed/frustrated/devastated by another FIRE SALE.  

 

Not at all. Getting upset by the fire sale is natural and I'm not ragging on anyone for that. 

 

But many doubt that a rebuild could even work (almost as if it's never worked ever in history) and I would love to see how they feel if it ends up working here.