51 minutes ago, Spike said:

Again, there are only 16 hitters in MLB worse than Lopez. He is not a "good hitter". He is objectively awful.

This is just flat wrong. First of all, it’s 17.

Second, his expected weighed on base average is .342, which is 66th out of 144 qualified players. AKA alive average. Plus I imagine the “qualified players” sample skews toward the better performers.

Relatedly, his BABIP is .267, while every predictive algorithm fangraphs shows expected at last .299. His expected batting average and slugging are a good bit higher, giving the impression that he has been quite unlucky.

On 9/23/2025 at 8:29 AM, rmc523 said:

They always have "depth" on paper and then it fizzles 3 innings into the season lol.

Unless you get the haul you want, at this point, I'd say keep Sandy and see if we're competitive....if we are, he'll help keep us in contention/for a potential playoff push. If not, hope he performs well, and trade him at the deadline for a haul.

Exactly. And Sandy has 4+ WAR upside, not to mention the benefit to the bullpen because he actually pitches a lot of innings. Only Sandy and Eury have ace upside to me, and that is invaluable, including if you make the playoffs.

7 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

This is just flat wrong. First of all, it’s 17.

Second, his expected weighed on base average is .342, which is 66th out of 144 qualified players. AKA alive average. Plus I imagine the “qualified players” sample skews toward the better performers.

Relatedly, his BABIP is .267, while every predictive algorithm fangraphs shows expected at last .299. His expected batting average and slugging are a good bit higher, giving the impression that he has been quite unlucky.

His BABIP was .318 last year and his WRC+ was still 91.

There's also a big difference between his xSLG and xISO. I would guess its because while he does barrel the ball decently but he makes such soft contact.

He is an objectively awful hitter.

9 minutes ago, Spike said:

His BABIP was .318 last year and his WRC+ was still 91.

There's also a big difference between his xSLG and xISO. I would guess its because while he does barrel the ball decently but he makes such soft contact.

He is an objectively awful hitter.

So? He was 25 last year, and he’s allowed to improve.

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say about SLG vs ISO. xISO is just xSLG minus xBA, so of course it’s much lower.

He’s 44th percentile in barrels per plate appearance, and 26th percentile in hard hit rate. Not great, but also not a bottom 20 hitter.

Except he is a bottom 20 hitter. Nothing suggests he will improve or be markedly different.

He will likely be at best a bottom 25 hitter in baseball in his best years.

4 hours ago, Spike said:

Except he is a bottom 20 hitter. Nothing suggests he will improve or be markedly different.

He will likely be at best a bottom 25 hitter in baseball in his best years.

Ok

23 hours ago, Spike said:

Again, there are only 16 hitters in MLB worse than Lopez. He is not a "good hitter". He is objectively awful.

Lopez had a wRC+ of 92 last year. So 8% under league agerage. This year his BB%, K%, and isolated power all trended in the right direction. However, the babip shrank well below league average. If that returns to the mean you are probably looking at a wRC+ of league average or better. Look at guys with similar BB%, K%, and iso, but more reasonable babip's. Sal Frelick- 116 wRC+, Brendon Donovan (All-Star)- 118 wRC+, Gleyber Torres- 116 wRC+, Bryson Stott- 100 wRC+. With his combination of speed and defense, he provides plus value. And should his babip even out, he's not gonna be a detriment at the plate.

4 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

Lopez had a wRC+ of 92 last year. So 8% under league agerage. This year his BB%, K%, and isolated power all trended in the right direction. However, the babip shrank well below league average. If that returns to the mean you are probably looking at a wRC+ of league average or better. Look at guys with similar BB%, K%, and iso, but more reasonable babip's. Sal Frelick- 116 wRC+, Brendon Donovan (All-Star)- 118 wRC+, Gleyber Torres- 116 wRC+, Bryson Stott- 100 wRC+. With his combination of speed and defense, he provides plus value. And should his babip even out, he's not gonna be a detriment at the plate.

WRONG HE IS BOTTOM 20 THERE IS NO PROOF EVIDENCE OR HOPE OTHERWISE

AAA team just won the International League title.

49 minutes ago, Michael said:

AAA team just won the International League title.

They play at las Vegas Saturday ( athletics affiliate) for the AAA title. Guessing snelling will start on short rest.

Btw, take the over on Saturday. Ball flies out of right in Vegas thin air

Fans think keep Sandy and Cabrera would win how many more games, front office guys think trade Sandy and Cabrera would save how much more money, front office guys would never be the fans.

4 hours ago, TaiwanMarlins said:

Remember back in .....I think it was '07 and '08 where we knocked the Mets out of the last playoff spot 2 years in a row....I think both at Shea.

At least we have something to play for.....

Edited September 26, 2025Sep 26 by rmc523

On 9/25/2025 at 12:52 PM, FishFan95 said:

Lopez had a wRC+ of 92 last year. So 8% under league agerage. This year his BB%, K%, and isolated power all trended in the right direction. However, the babip shrank well below league average. If that returns to the mean you are probably looking at a wRC+ of league average or better. Look at guys with similar BB%, K%, and iso, but more reasonable babip's. Sal Frelick- 116 wRC+, Brendon Donovan (All-Star)- 118 wRC+, Gleyber Torres- 116 wRC+, Bryson Stott- 100 wRC+. With his combination of speed and defense, he provides plus value. And should his babip even out, he's not gonna be a detriment at the plate.

There are only 17 players with a lower ISO in the league. Even if you bump up the #s to match his BABIP from last year, with additional xbh factored in, his WRC+ would likely go down. He has such little power and makes soft contact, you'd likely at most get another 2B out of the additional ~28 to 30 hits(he is averaging a 2B every 24 AB; HR every 36).

So he would go from 14th from the bottom to tied for 10th from the bottom in wrc+.

He was awful last year. Hes been beyond awful this year. He was never a good hitter at any level of the minors.

Lopez is fine to have as a sub or utility infielder. But his bat is unplayable on a team that is so poor offensively.

3 hours ago, Spike said:

There are only 17 players with a lower ISO in the league. Even if you bump up the #s to match his BABIP from last year, with additional xbh factored in, his WRC+ would likely go down. He has such little power and makes soft contact, you'd likely at most get another 2B out of the additional ~28 to 30 hits(he is averaging a 2B every 24 AB; HR every 36).

How do you come to the conclusion that if balls hit in play go for singles, doubles, and triples instead of outs, that his wRC+ would go down? His batting average would be .290. If you assume the same rate ouf singles, doubles, and triples in these non outs, then his slugging would go up to .419. His iso actually goes from .123 to .129 in this scenario. I do not see how you conclude that his wRC+ would go down.

Edited September 27, 2025Sep 27 by FishFan95

3 hours ago, Spike said:

There are only 17 players with a lower ISO in the league. Even if you bump up the #s to match his BABIP from last year, with additional xbh factored in, his WRC+ would likely go down. He has such little power and makes soft contact, you'd likely at most get another 2B out of the additional ~28 to 30 hits(he is averaging a 2B every 24 AB; HR every 36).

So he would go from 14th from the bottom to tied for 10th from the bottom in wrc+.

He was awful last year. Hes been beyond awful this year. He was never a good hitter at any level of the minors.

Lopez is fine to have as a sub or utility infielder. But his bat is unplayable on a team that is so poor offensively.

He has 444 balls hit in play this year (prior to Saturday's game). His babip went from .318 to .268. That means his drop in babip has cost him 22 hits (444 x 0.05). Of his hits in play, he has 98 singles, and 21 doubles (homers are considered out of play for babip). Based on his hit quantities, you would expect 3.8 more doubles if you give him 22 more hits, not just one. I gave you a bone and calculated it as if he got an aditional 19 singles and just 3 more doubles.

On 9/25/2025 at 8:07 PM, TheMarlinsProject said:

Btw, take the over on Saturday. Ball flies out of right in Vegas thin air

On 9/25/2025 at 8:07 PM, TheMarlinsProject said:

They play at las Vegas Saturday ( athletics affiliate) for the AAA title. Guessing snelling will start on short rest.

Shrimp up 6-2, give up 5 runs in top of 9th. Then the chicken, er, jumbo shrimp ran at midnight

Jacob f'n Berry hits a two run walk off (fonzi was on base) to, you guessed it, right field.

Jumbo shrimp are AAA national champs, 8-7 over Las Vegas.

Again, we are coming.

14 hours ago, TheMarlinsProject said:

Shrimp up 6-2, give up 5 runs in top of 9th. Then the chicken, er, jumbo shrimp ran at midnight

Jacob f'n Berry hits a two run walk off (fonzi was on base) to, you guessed it, right field.

Jumbo shrimp are AAA national champs, 8-7 over Las Vegas.

Again, we are coming.

I was at the game. I don't often go but great weather last night. I was divided, but ultimately wanted to see Jax win. It was cool to see Mack hit a huge bomb to right also. I was sitting on the right side, in between 1B and RF and there was a heckler roasting Berry all night, guess Berry got the last laugh!

Frankly, with that terrible stretch after the trade deadline, I think they responded pretty well. Not that there's any moral victories.

No moral victories that is, except for ruining the Mets season.