Everything posted by Keyswayne
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Hopes high on Pudge Staying
I know this is an unpopular view, but I think we're better off letting Pudge go. I don't think the fish can afford him anyway. Castro is ready, and will do well. The offense will fine without him. He hit ok, but not really much better statistically than Lee did for the regular season. Marlins fans aren't used to having star players, and so aren't used to letting them go. LIke Cliff Floyd, and Preston Wilson. I don't think it makes sense for any baseball reasons to sign Pudge long term. PR is the only reason I can think of that makes any sense. It's time to let him go. He's going to try to find a monster contract. That money can be better spent on other players.
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Cuban Defectors
Umm Yankees have po load of money.. marlins have the advantage IMO large hispanic...cuban population just won the world series many hispanic players on the team I doubt the yankees would pay the guy THAT much as an unproven MLB pitcher. so he's right in our bullpark, no pun intended Yeah, you'd have to go all the way back to last year to find them doing that. (Contreras). The Yankees are going to lose most of their pitching staff. If they want a free agent pitcher, they are likely to get him.
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Tough choices are coming BUT one.....
The only way keeping AJ makes any sense is if he can be signed long term. ANd that's a huge gamble for a small market budget. Many pitchers come back stronger after the surgery, but you tend not to hear about the ones that don't. Some of them just slip away into obscurity. They don't make very good stories, so you don't hear about them. Paying AJ 2.5 mil for a recovery year, and then letting him go as a free agent the following season doesn't make sense. Most of the decisions about big money contracts are probably going to hinge on the stadium deal. From where I sit, they're stillabout $200 mil short, and that's not chump change. If this stadium deal drive falls short, like the previous ones have, their won't be any future revenue projected to cover these investments. They simply won't happen. I hope Loria and co have a plan, and aren't just hoping for a miracle. They've been playing it pretty close to the vest so far, but have put their cards on the table now. But I haven't even heard a suggestion of where that 200 mil was coming from.
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Jose Guillen?
That's a good question. He's never made a million in a season yet, and had a good contract drive year. He should be affordable.
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Linstening to Hank show...
I don't think Hank is a financial pundit. He's a race track bum. He doesn't know anything at all about high finance, . And neither do most of us. And he knows less about baseball. There are SO many ways for that money to be put together that is beyond our limited comprehension. All we get of what is really going on is the PR releases. What they want us to know, or think we know. Hank has been bad mouthing the Marlins all season, except right at the end. He is a negative guy, who appears to be unhappy with his miserable life, and his miserable career. I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in his opinion about finances or baseball, just because WQAM gives him some air time. WQAM is the same "sports station" that has Neal Rogers as it's top rated spot. And that doesn''t have absolutely anything to do with sports at all. No cred.
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Tough choices are coming BUT one.....
It's the old "a bird in the hand...." cliche. I'm not going to be the least bit surprised if they let AJ go. There is a limit to the financial resources. I am going to be more surprised if Pudge is still around. He is going to command HUGE money, and Castro is the real deal. It's the same kind of thinking that made it hard to see how obvious it was that Cliff Floyd had to go, or Preston WIlson, that makes it hard for people to see that some of these stars aren't going to be here next year. That's the nature of MLB these days. For every team. We're just not used to success and it's the fear of the unknown that makes it so hard to let go. The variables here are the guys we don't know about who are being considered to fill holes when some of these guys go. That's part of the fun of being a fan. Growing with the changes. On the other hand, you never know what kind of creative deal they may come up with for AJ, and whether or not AJ still wants to stick around enough to negotiate long term. Don't forget he was somewhat disgruntled about his situation last season.
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New 2nd baseman?
As much as most of us don't like to accept it. it is unlikely to me that Luis will be back next season. He is going to command too much money. He isn't the best value for a small market team. I have considered who might replace him, especially since the organization isn't particulary deep in middle infielders (anymore). It won't be Alomar. I'm guessing it will be somebody you don't think about much, who could do the job, and contribute on offense. The white sox have a guy who had a cup of coffee with them this season by the name of Aaron Miles, who might be ready. Do the Sox need a 1st baseman, or right fielder? Of the free agents available you might see somebody like Chris Gomez get some attention. He is very affordable, and a veteran. However, the best deal I see in the free agent market for 2nd baseman is Eric Young. He could be had for under 2 mil, and is still a very good player, and hit 15 HRs last season. He would fill that 2 hole quite nicely.
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The Official 25-man Roster Prediction Thread
How would Pudge get less money than he made this season? He got $10 mil coming off two consecutive sub par (for him) injury riddled seasons. He just had a monster year, and just signed with a predatory agent. He is going to be looking for at least 12-14 mil and three years. Any "home town discount" will be in single digit percentage points. These guys don't give 50% discounts and give away 5-7 mil per year. They just don't. Not for anything. The Marlins will make an offer, and it will be far below what IRod's people will accept. There will be some negotiating and then he will sign with someone who can afford him. I don't consider him a key to the off season at all. What they get for Lee and Encarnacion is.
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Here's something you might want to know.
I think it's going to be harder than usual to predict possible moves. The climate has changed in MLB and no one is quite sure what is going to happen. However, the Red Sox just put Manny Ramirez on waivers. They didn't even try to trade him. It's just a salary dump for one of the best hitters in the game. GMs are more cautious than ever about getting value, and some of the big money guys are going to be looking for a job. I don't think the owners are as keen on trying to keep up with Steinbrenner as they used to be either. Especially after the Angels, and then the Marlins winning the world series. I think it's very possible that the Marlins will not try to sign any big name players, and probably not even any very established players out of the free agent market. They dont' really need any. They are holding several good trading cards, and if they're smart, they will snap up some top propspects for guys like Encarnacion, and Lee. Then can then play a journeyman type in rightfield. Someone who has occaisional power, maybe left handed, that can play some d. A one year deal like they did with Hollandsworthless.
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What do YOU hope the offseason will look like?
I haven't heard a lot of talk about Walker being a target. It seems to me the Marlins would have to have a better defensive 2nd baseman. Walker hits well but I doubt if he will provide enough D. Plus, I gotta believe if there are other teams looking for 2nd baseman the Marlins aren't going to be in any position to win a bidding war. I don't think they'll spend much on 2nd base.
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UK Fan need Help
Ok i'm going to make a real a** of myself now - what does it mean by Runs Batted In - is it that the batter just hits the ball? If you guys help me out here I may go into some of the rules of British Cricket - which really is a minefield of crazy rules - but not a disimilar sport to Basball. It's when a batter causes a runner to score. That could be by getting a hit when there's a runner on base and he runs all the way around to home; or if he hits a sacrifice fly or a sacrifice bunt with a runner on third who scores; or he grounds out to an infielder and the runner on third scores as a result; or if a batter is hit by a pitch or walked (base on balls) with the bases loaded and a run scores as a result; or if he hits a home run thereby batting himself in. There may be more, but that's the basics. An RBI is not scored when a hitter hits into a double play causing a run to score, or on an error that would have prevented the run from scoring had it not occured. These are all my own words, and not necessarily the same as the official rules of MLB. 100 RBIs in a season is roughly the equivalent of hitting .300 as a hallmark. Or 30 home runs. Again, that's just my opinion.
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My 2004 opening roster...
I 've gotta say, I disagree with many of your picks. For one thing I doubt that there will be a 60-70 mil payroll. Where did you get that number? I'd be willing to bet (about a quarter) that the payroll will be no higher than 55 mil or so. Don't forget Pudge just jumped ship to agent Boras this year. Boras is known for big money contracts. Everybody will say all the right things about him trying to stay with the fish, but he's coming off a monster year when he commanded 10 mil as a question mark after two injury riddled seasons. He's in for the big bucks this time, and the Marlins can't afford him. But not to worry, I think Castro is going to more than carry the load. Lee is never going to be worth more on the trading block, and with Conine on board, it's adios Lee. They should get some good value for him. Castillo is going to command too much to justify resigning him. He will be missed but not for as long as you might think. Encarnacion may very well be traded too, if they can get anything for him. 90+ RBIs make him a fair trade value. THe super subs will for the most part, be gone, because they become an unaffordable luxury. There are other big leaugers available who will be adequate, and more affordable. Gonalez will be here. He's adequate as a 8 hitter, and above avg defensively. And they can pay him. The money saved on letting some of those guys go can be spent to keep as much of that pitching staff together as possible. Although I think Uggie is history. I would like to see Lowell resigned. I think he is a 30+ HR guy, and has a nose for the RBI. The more important thing for me is that he has consistently good ABs. He continues to improve as a hitter, and with him and Conine in the linueup, yoiu have two guys with great approaches.
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What do you do in the offseason?
All other sports are just methadone to this baseball junkie. I scour the internet for news and waste countless hours on forums like this one, arguing with Jonny, and other incurable seamheads. Golf seems to help, and scuba diving, and Carribean baseball, when I can get it. Oh, and I almost forgot. My winter softball league has started, and barring injuries, should help a little.
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Another piece of crap article
That's funny. I already emailed him this morning as soon as I read that article. I pointed out the same things I've emailed LeBartard and Berardino when they were spouting that crap. I also mentioned that they are all a bunch of sheep, and always check to see what the other guy says before they write a story, so it looks like they know what they're talking about. What other market in this economy blames the consumer for not buying an inferior product, and one that has been blatently and consistently tampered with, and then not returning quickly when the product appears to be improved? BTW, this article is no where near as bad as LeBatard saying a week or two ago, that the Marlins would be dismantled. When I emailed him about it, he replyed that he only "speaks the truth" and to "buck up". I hope people don't forget about his statement.
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Neyer seems to still miss the point
I agree that he is underestimating the intangibles, but he makes several good points. Speed alone is not winning games, nor is pitching and defense alone. But the same can be said for any aspect of the game. It still takes a whole balanced team, playing well together to win it all. And that's what the Marlins had this season. They got pitching when they needed it, and they got good defense when they needed it. They didn't get great defense in the world series, but steady. The speed was pretty much neutralized. The Yankees defensed Pierre by bringing Soriano in to edge of the grass to take away the drag bunt. I haven't seen anyone do that ever before. It seemed to be very effective, and I would be surprised if NL teams didn't adopt it for next season.
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2004 Team
Where was Pujols in that lineup?
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ANDY Fox!
I heard that Andy Fox was left off the post-season roster. Does anyone know why? I think it was because of the clutch hits Mordecai had down the stretch. Plus you have two other left handed PH off the bench in Hollandsworth and Harris.
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Bench Lowell for Encarnacion?
Redmond wouldn't get benched for Castro because he is the backup catcher.? That's not rocket science man... But who is the better player? Whose the bigger threat? Same point goes for Lowell/Encarnacion. Obviously they think Redmond is, or Castro would be on the roster. There is absolutely no consideration given to "who deserves it" because they've been there. None at all, not a second of consideration. This isn't Little League, it's the freakin world series.
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Beckett Starting Game 6
One of things this move does that I haven't heard an awful lot about is that it adds another quality lefthander out of the bullpen. Which could be a very important factor. Now you have Redman to use as a situational leftie too, and he is pretty dependable to come in and throw strikes.
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Bandwagoners are the Epitomy of Hypocracy
I'm an die hard fan from a year before the inaugural season. I've followed every move this team has ever made. I think every fan is a bandwagoner at some point or another. So I welcome any new fan to come and enjoy this great game, and this team with me. The more the merrier. I also hope some of you will have so much fun with it, that you will come back next season and help us die hards support this team. Because we can't do it by ourselves. This is not a private club.
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game 6 starter
Not desperation if we win tonight so no Josh in Game 6. McKeon would be second guessed for life if it failed. When you're 72 it isn't all that long anyway. He makes moves to win NOW. I'll bet Beckett starts game 6
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game 6 starter
Yes, you can't have a game 7 starter unless you make it to game 7. If the Marlins win game 5 they may be able to gamble on the extra day of rest for Beckett, but I wouldn't count on it. McKeon has shown he tends to stay in the "right now". I look for Beckett to start game 6.
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Still want to dump Gonzalez?
I was one of the people defending him before the season started. And I'm glad he was able to hit that walk off home run. It is frequently people like him who get to shine in the world series. However, it is very frustrating to watch repeat the same mistakes over and over again. He doens't seem to be getting any better offensively, and I've about given up on seeing that happen. The problem with replacing him is this: There are higher priorities for this team this off season. I don't know of anyone in the organization that could do any better offensively, and almost certainly no one is available to replace his glove. And I don't think they'll trade away valuable talent for a shortstop for next season. I think we're stuck with him for one more season. He is much more than adequate for the small market budget the Marlins have.
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Bench Lowell for Encarnacion?
No, it's a case of misleading stats. His two hits were both bloopers, and not representative of good ABs. You don't take Lowell because Encarnacion lucked in a couple of hits. If Encarnacion hits the ball hard twice, and Lowell doesn't, then you might consider it.
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One last column....
I'm already a very satisfied customer no matter how they do from here on out. That sure makes it easy to cheer them on. Remember we were arguing about contraction, moving the team, etc a few months ago.