The problem I have is that he's been "really bad" for 2? seasons and insanely good for ? season, and people act as though the bad times are the irregularity.

My problem is you don't know what the hell you're talking about on this one.

 

You can cut it up however you want, but it doesn't mean you are being accurate or fair. That's the point. You are stating your opinion on a wild 5/6th of the time Hermida is bad statistic, when this is clearly not the case. He hasn't been bad for 2 1/2 seasons of the 3 he's played. I've already obliterated this once, but you are forcing me to use a second methodology to come up with the same result.

 

You seem to like using PRE/POST numbers, meaning a collection of months. How about we take your preferred method of evaluation and break it down even further. Let's use months and see if we come up with 5/6ths of the time Jeremy Hermida sucks.

 

2006

April/May - .675 OPS

June - .935 OPS

July - .724 OPS

Aug/Sep - .450 OPS

 

Ok, so 1/4 we're good. I had to combine the months for sample size accuracy compared to other months is this showing. Every 'month' needs to be relatively the same for this to be an honest showing of fact.

 

2007

May - .794 OPS

June - .627 OPS

July - .976 OPS

August - 1.033 OPS

September - .897

 

4/5s of the time he is good. So in total, we're at 5/9 good now. Also, I'm going to start referring to 2007 as "a bad June" and not just a "great post." I think that's a lot fairer.

 

2008

April - .805 OPS

May - .708 OPS

June - .788 OPS

July - .827 OPS

August - .540 OPS

September - .613 OPS

 

Surprise surprise! Hermida was fine in 3/6 months of the 2008 season. This matchs his HOME/AWAY insanity splits perfectly. Above average half the time, way below average the other half. Overall total, 8/15 months Hermida has been average/above average in the major leagues. That is a far cry from 1/6th the time being good. Is this shocking or what for a 22-24 year old player. And I could have combined Aug/Sep 2008 for sample size purposes and included his 2005, but I'm throwing you freebies on those because I combined his 2006 injury months. I'm sure you are going to argue .788-.805 monthly totals aren't good enough to try and sway this to your side. Don't waste your breath as that is a very adequate production level in a month to month analysis where we have to account for huge sample size fluctuations.

 

Even using this primitive methodology, the evidence still supports the conclusion that Hermida is more than fine half the time and just goes through hellacious slumps. This shows even further, when he is bad, he's real bad. This says to me he is a young player trying to figure it out. A kid 22-24 years old without going to AAA and who got injured his first two years hasn't transitioned perfectly to the bigs. Shocking it's not a perfect transition. He is nowhere near bad 5/6ths the time. Get over it.

 

At what point does putting up a 729 OPS over an entire season become a problem to all of you? When he's 25? 26? 27?

For us right now, he gets 2009 to prove what's real. His "bad June 2007" and road splits from 2008 versus his overall 2008 line. Something is going to give here. His splits are to drastic on both ends of the spectrum for him not to shift in one of the directions. It's perfectly fine if you think that shift happens DOWN and he becomes the next Mark Teahen. But the problem I have with people like you is, you are making this determinative. We have to find out which way this production swing goes before we make a decision. This is basic player development.

I don't even know why anyone is arguing Hermida's past performance here, or whether he's good or bad. The Florida Marlins will trade him if a good offer comes up, regardless of how you analyze his past performance. It is the positive speculation of his future performance that may in fact bring about a good trade offer.

 

So I agree with Lou on what he's saying, and still think he will and should be traded if a great offer comes our way.

Trading Willingham should have silenced all the trade-Hermida talk. But apparently you guys don't get it.

 

We have 2 major league outfielders (Ross, Hermida), a likely jump from AA (Maybin), some 5th Outfielders who should never play (Amezaga, Bonifacio), decent prospects in AAA needing another year in the minors (Raynor, Carroll), and better prospects in AA who need 1-2 full years (Cousins, Petersen, and especially Morrison). Stanton is also in A+. What does this tell us? This tells us we have a lot of legitimate outfielder talent in this organization for 2010. This follows, we need 1 year to see how the AAA/AA players do, then we could trade both Hermida and Ross and bring up all the kids if they pan out. Right now, we don't have options. We flat out need Hermida to fill a role.

 

Further, we need to add another veteran outfielder, a left-handed player that can play 1B/LF for 2009, because of our limited MLB options and the uncertainty with Maybin producing immediately, Hermida bouncing back, and Ross in general is an ordinary performer and could easily regress against RHP. Subtracting Hermida from this team, where we presumably would not get another outfielder back because why would a team trading for an outfielder send us a MLB ready OF back, creates TWO needs of bringing in TWO left handed outfielders that could both start, and provide bench flexibility for 1B/LF. This is a highly unlikely goal to satisfy in free agency, where the best options in our budget are named Luis Gonzalez, Mark Kotsay, Daryle Ward, and Cliff Floyd. Hermida is the best left handed hitter in the Marlins organization right now. We need him even if there is a great trade offer, which is incredibly unlikely off a low 700 OPSing year. Classic buy low scenario.

 

You want to trade if a good offer comes along? The answer is Cantu and his $4-4.5 million dollar salary. The Marlins can deploy G. Sanchez and McPherson at the corners, can replace Cantu's spot on the 25 man roster with a left handed 1B/LF to further back up Gaby and fix the OF depth situation, have Helms to play against LHP for McPherson, and use Bonifacio for spots at 3B and defense (which Beinfest has alluded too). That's a situation where we can live without a player if the right deal comes along. Hermida? Not at this time.

Lou, I just love the way you keep bringing up Cliff Floyd. It's such a joke. There is more chance I will push Cameron Maybin out of the way and back to the minors when I win the CF spot than Cliff Floyd ever wearing a Marlins uniform again.

 

I don't think I need to repeat the litany of things he did while he was here and said afterwards for multiple years every time he had a chance to stick the knife in as it regards the Fish, let's leave it at Cliff Floyd openly admitting to watching the 2003 World Series rooting against the Marlins. Not rooting for the Yankees, rooting against the Marlins.

 

At least try to be realistic. I don't disagree with your "big picture" (although I'm not sure trading Cantu is a wise move) but bringing up Cliffie only undermines your case.

Lou, I just love the way you keep bringing up Cliff Floyd. It's such a joke. There is more chance I will push Cameron Maybin out of the way and back to the minors when I win the CF spot than Cliff Floyd ever wearing a Marlins uniform again.

 

I don't think I need to repeat the litany of things he did while he was here and said afterwards for multiple years every time he had a chance to stick the knife in as it regards the Fish, let's leave it at Cliff Floyd openly admitting to watching the 2003 World Series rooting against the Marlins. Not rooting for the Yankees, rooting against the Marlins.

 

At least try to be realistic. I don't disagree with your "big picture" (although I'm not sure trading Cantu is a wise move) but bringing up Cliffie only undermines your case.

I wouldn't move Cantu either, we can afford him and Gaby can stay in AAA for a bit.

 

Cliff is part of the class of players that could fit the role. That is all. And it shows you how lacking the FA class of left handers is if Cliff is legitimately one of the better options.

Lou, I just love the way you keep bringing up Cliff Floyd. It's such a joke. There is more chance I will push Cameron Maybin out of the way and back to the minors when I win the CF spot than Cliff Floyd ever wearing a Marlins uniform again.

 

I don't think I need to repeat the litany of things he did while he was here and said afterwards for multiple years every time he had a chance to stick the knife in as it regards the Fish, let's leave it at Cliff Floyd openly admitting to watching the 2003 World Series rooting against the Marlins. Not rooting for the Yankees, rooting against the Marlins.

 

At least try to be realistic. I don't disagree with your "big picture" (although I'm not sure trading Cantu is a wise move) but bringing up Cliffie only undermines your case.

I wouldn't move Cantu either, we can afford him and Gaby can stay in AAA for a bit.

 

Cliff is part of the class of players that could fit the role. That is all. And it shows you how lacking the FA class of left handers is if Cliff is legitimately one of the better options.

 

Aside from signing a veteran OF, theres no reason why the team can;t experiment with McPherson, Bonifacio, or even Cantu in LF. Cabrera wasn't a LF, yet we put him there and won a championship with him there. The we have no other OF argument is weak for that very reason. Not to mention we have no idea what will come in as part of a Hermida trade, perhaps even an OF for the bench that will allow us to slide Ross to RF.

 

So if a good tarde comes along it would be idiotic to sit on Hermida and put our hands on the good book and pray he'll live up to his potential. At this time or at any time, if a good deal comes along trading Hermida, who still has value because of his potential is a great idea. And please stop with the 'you guys' nonsense and focus on my argument. Which is not and has never been that Hermida sucks or should be traded. It is that if a good deal comes along he should be traded.

Aside from signing a veteran OF, theres no reason why the team can;t experiment with McPherson, Bonifacio, or even Cantu in LF. Cabrera wasn't a LF, yet we put him there and won a championship with him there. The we have no other OF argument is weak for that very reason. Not to mention we have no idea what will come in as part of a Hermida trade, perhaps even an OF for the bench that will allow us to slide Ross to RF.

 

So if a good tarde comes along it would be idiotic to sit on Hermida and put our hands on the good book and pray he'll live up to his potential. At this time or at any time, if a good deal comes along trading Hermida, who still has value because of his potential is a great idea. And please stop with the 'you guys' nonsense and focus on my argument. Which is not and has never been that Hermida sucks or should be traded. It is that if a good deal comes along he should be traded.

That is the wildcard, if Cantu or McPherson can legitimately play LF, we don't have problems with our position players (except upgrading backup catcher). Don't include Bonifacio because he has no slugging potential. We need a slugging option out there. I'd be very happy if Cantu or McPherson could play 40 games in LF. That would set us up perfectly.

 

I'm not ignoring your argument, I'm saying we need Hermida whether we get a good trade offer for him or not because the lack of our MLB ready talent, the lack of realistic FA replacements, and the lack of trade targets we could acquire for an expendable player to fill a need. Coupled with his potential which has easily been shown, no brainer to keep him. We'd need a great, not a good, trade offer for Hermida that hooks us up so amazingly elsewhere, we could slum RF for a year or two as a result. That's not going to happen off a low 700 OPSing year. He stays.

Lou, I just love the way you keep bringing up Cliff Floyd. It's such a joke. There is more chance I will push Cameron Maybin out of the way and back to the minors when I win the CF spot than Cliff Floyd ever wearing a Marlins uniform again.

 

 

Why is that? The team brought back Wes Helms, no? You guys need to lay off the whole "he said, she said." At the end of the day, it's a business, and winning leads to better business. The Marlins will get the best available player that will fit their payroll limit. If that guy is Cliff Floyd...it'll be Cliff Floyd.

The problem I have is that he's been "really bad" for 2? seasons and insanely good for ? season, and people act as though the bad times are the irregularity.

My problem is you don't know what the hell you're talking about on this one.

 

You can cut it up however you want, but it doesn't mean you are being accurate or fair. That's the point. You are stating your opinion on a wild 5/6th of the time Hermida is bad statistic, when this is clearly not the case. He hasn't been bad for 2 1/2 seasons of the 3 he's played. I've already obliterated this once, but you are forcing me to use a second methodology to come up with the same result.

 

You seem to like using PRE/POST numbers, meaning a collection of months. How about we take your preferred method of evaluation and break it down even further. Let's use months and see if we come up with 5/6ths of the time Jeremy Hermida sucks.

 

2006

April/May - .675 OPS

June - .935 OPS

July - .724 OPS

Aug/Sep - .450 OPS

 

Ok, so 1/4 we're good. I had to combine the months for sample size accuracy compared to other months is this showing. Every 'month' needs to be relatively the same for this to be an honest showing of fact.

 

2007

May - .794 OPS

June - .627 OPS

July - .976 OPS

August - 1.033 OPS

September - .897

 

4/5s of the time he is good. So in total, we're at 5/9 good now. Also, I'm going to start referring to 2007 as "a bad June" and not just a "great post." I think that's a lot fairer.

 

2008

April - .805 OPS

May - .708 OPS

June - .788 OPS

July - .827 OPS

August - .540 OPS

September - .613 OPS

 

Surprise surprise! Hermida was fine in 3/6 months of the 2008 season. This matchs his HOME/AWAY insanity splits perfectly. Above average half the time, way below average the other half. Overall total, 8/15 months Hermida has been average/above average in the major leagues. That is a far cry from 1/6th the time being good. Is this shocking or what for a 22-24 year old player. And I could have combined Aug/Sep 2008 for sample size purposes and included his 2005, but I'm throwing you freebies on those because I combined his 2006 injury months. I'm sure you are going to argue .788-.805 monthly totals aren't good enough to try and sway this to your side. Don't waste your breath as that is a very adequate production level in a month to month analysis where we have to account for huge sample size fluctuations.

 

Even using this primitive methodology, the evidence still supports the conclusion that Hermida is more than fine half the time and just goes through hellacious slumps. This shows even further, when he is bad, he's real bad. This says to me he is a young player trying to figure it out. A kid 22-24 years old without going to AAA and who got injured his first two years hasn't transitioned perfectly to the bigs. Shocking it's not a perfect transition. He is nowhere near bad 5/6ths the time. Get over it.

 

At what point does putting up a 729 OPS over an entire season become a problem to all of you? When he's 25? 26? 27?

For us right now, he gets 2009 to prove what's real. His "bad June 2007" and road splits from 2008 versus his overall 2008 line. Something is going to give here. His splits are to drastic on both ends of the spectrum for him not to shift in one of the directions. It's perfectly fine if you think that shift happens DOWN and he becomes the next Mark Teahen. But the problem I have with people like you is, you are making this determinative. We have to find out which way this production swing goes before we make a decision. This is basic player development.

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

Lou, I just love the way you keep bringing up Cliff Floyd. It's such a joke. There is more chance I will push Cameron Maybin out of the way and back to the minors when I win the CF spot than Cliff Floyd ever wearing a Marlins uniform again.

 

 

Why is that? The team brought back Wes Helms, no? You guys need to lay off the whole "he said, she said." At the end of the day, it's a business, and winning leads to better business. The Marlins will get the best available player that will fit their payroll limit. If that guy is Cliff Floyd...it'll be Cliff Floyd.

 

You obviously have no idea what you're talking about in this case. No offense. Not a chance.

If you make a bad argument, you get called out. It's that simple.

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

 

This is the thing we "Hermida Homers" have never said Jeremy will be the next Admin Walker... we are advocating keeping an ML-ready outfielder with the upside to be among the top outfielders in the game... something like an .850 OPS

 

We've never said he's anything more than an average defensive player...

 

We just want to keep a YOUNG player with HIGH UPSIDE... because he's still reasonably priced and still very much worth a shot

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

 

dont be so extremist.

 

sure, hermida has been inconsistent, and at times looked like he doesnt give a damn, but the main point that is trying to be made is that Hermida fills a need right now, and for that reason we dont want to see him get shipped, and in fact, he likely will not be shipped.

 

we need OF help right now. I would like to see an addition in this department. I still would not be surprised if Uggla gets dealt for a quality OF talent. With the number of options we have in the infield, and the fact that Uggs will be our highest paid arbitration eligible guy, this seems like a decent enough idea.

 

Only time will tell. This board needs some news to stir the pot. Drooling over Hanley's new house and speculating as to the size of his bowel movements is getting old.

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

 

 

Only time will tell. This board needs some news to stir the pot. Drooling over Hanley's new house and speculating as to the size of his bowel movements is getting old.

 

Concur. Admin Beinfest should have thought of us and spread out the trades a little bit. They all came at once, and now we might not have anything else to talk about until March.

 

Hopefully we get some Dan Uggla rumors to speculate on soon...

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

That's just annoying. You got beaten by numbers, don't throw a hissyfit.

The problem I have is that he's been "really bad" for 2? seasons and insanely good for ? season, and people act as though the bad times are the irregularity.

My problem is you don't know what the hell you're talking about on this one.

 

You can cut it up however you want, but it doesn't mean you are being accurate or fair. That's the point. You are stating your opinion on a wild 5/6th of the time Hermida is bad statistic, when this is clearly not the case. He hasn't been bad for 2 1/2 seasons of the 3 he's played. I've already obliterated this once, but you are forcing me to use a second methodology to come up with the same result.

 

You seem to like using PRE/POST numbers, meaning a collection of months. How about we take your preferred method of evaluation and break it down even further. Let's use months and see if we come up with 5/6ths of the time Jeremy Hermida sucks.

 

2006

April/May - .675 OPS

June - .935 OPS

July - .724 OPS

Aug/Sep - .450 OPS

 

Ok, so 1/4 we're good. I had to combine the months for sample size accuracy compared to other months is this showing. Every 'month' needs to be relatively the same for this to be an honest showing of fact.

 

2007

May - .794 OPS

June - .627 OPS

July - .976 OPS

August - 1.033 OPS

September - .897

 

4/5s of the time he is good. So in total, we're at 5/9 good now. Also, I'm going to start referring to 2007 as "a bad June" and not just a "great post." I think that's a lot fairer.

 

2008

April - .805 OPS

May - .708 OPS

June - .788 OPS

July - .827 OPS

August - .540 OPS

September - .613 OPS

 

Surprise surprise! Hermida was fine in 3/6 months of the 2008 season. This matchs his HOME/AWAY insanity splits perfectly. Above average half the time, way below average the other half. Overall total, 8/15 months Hermida has been average/above average in the major leagues. That is a far cry from 1/6th the time being good. Is this shocking or what for a 22-24 year old player. And I could have combined Aug/Sep 2008 for sample size purposes and included his 2005, but I'm throwing you freebies on those because I combined his 2006 injury months. I'm sure you are going to argue .788-.805 monthly totals aren't good enough to try and sway this to your side. Don't waste your breath as that is a very adequate production level in a month to month analysis where we have to account for huge sample size fluctuations.

 

Even using this primitive methodology, the evidence still supports the conclusion that Hermida is more than fine half the time and just goes through hellacious slumps. This shows even further, when he is bad, he's real bad. This says to me he is a young player trying to figure it out. A kid 22-24 years old without going to AAA and who got injured his first two years hasn't transitioned perfectly to the bigs. Shocking it's not a perfect transition. He is nowhere near bad 5/6ths the time. Get over it.

 

At what point does putting up a 729 OPS over an entire season become a problem to all of you? When he's 25? 26? 27?

For us right now, he gets 2009 to prove what's real. His "bad June 2007" and road splits from 2008 versus his overall 2008 line. Something is going to give here. His splits are to drastic on both ends of the spectrum for him not to shift in one of the directions. It's perfectly fine if you think that shift happens DOWN and he becomes the next Mark Teahen. But the problem I have with people like you is, you are making this determinative. We have to find out which way this production swing goes before we make a decision. This is basic player development.

You know what? I quit. You homers win. Hermida is God's gift to the Marlins, and Heaven help us if we ever trade him. I'll put all this crap in my sig after he wins us a ring next year while also winning the MVP award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. I believe everything you say over my lying eyes, and Hermida is a superstar about to explode and start putting up Barry Bonds-like offensive numbers. I don't know how I ever felt like I could deny it.

 

Wow, that mad that you lost an argument?

You obviously have no idea what you're talking about in this case. No offense. Not a chance.

 

Oh, enlighten me.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

 

If you're too lazy to do a couple of simple searches not my problem. As for your ridiculous notion that somehow Cliff Floyd would ever be allowed back in this organization, it would require an ownership change.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

 

If you're too lazy to do a couple of simple searches not my problem. As for your ridiculous notion that somehow Cliff Floyd would ever be allowed back in this organization, it would require an ownership change.

Or you could try backing your point up with statements.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

 

If you're too lazy to do a couple of simple searches not my problem. As for your ridiculous notion that somehow Cliff Floyd would ever be allowed back in this organization, it would require an ownership change.

Or you could try backing your point up with statements.

 

Oh really Rabb? All the kid has to do is simply search and learn for himself. In fact I think I mentioned one of his transgressions in this thread (or another I really don't care or remember). The rest are a simple search away.

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

 

If you're too lazy to do a couple of simple searches not my problem. As for your ridiculous notion that somehow Cliff Floyd would ever be allowed back in this organization, it would require an ownership change.

 

 

Yeah b/c Wes Helms NEVER said anything bad about the organization after his first departure. Who does he play for now, again?

 

It's a business.

 

*Unless if you actually know Jeffrey Loria and the gang personally...which I doubt you do.*

Oh, enlighten me.

 

It's not my job to be your research assistant. Try going through the archives, its been spoken about for years...start in 2002.

 

 

Then you could go back through google new archives from 2002-2005.

 

 

And yet, you're still missing my point.

 

If you're too lazy to do a couple of simple searches not my problem. As for your ridiculous notion that somehow Cliff Floyd would ever be allowed back in this organization, it would require an ownership change.

 

 

Yeah b/c Wes Helms NEVER said anything bad about the organization after his first departure. Who does he play for now, again?

 

It's a business.

 

*Unless if you actually know Jeffrey Loria and the gang personally...which I doubt you do.*

 

 

 

Isn't it past your bedtime? There's no comparison between Cliff Floyd and Wes Helms. It isn't even close.

Isn't it past your bedtime? There's no comparison between Cliff Floyd and Wes Helms. It isn't even close.

 

Do you have anything relevant to your little theory to add? Or is this your "man, I lost the argument, let me comeback with a kid joke, since I know he's only a teenager." Bravo. I hear people your age have bedtimes too. Isn't it past yours?

 

Oh wait...almost forgot. You work for the organization. That is how you KNOW for a FACT that this team isn't even looking at Cliff Floyd as a possibility right now. How dare we question that fact opinion? Keep up the good work, sir.