Depends of course on what they're offering, but it's common knowledge around here that I'm fine with trading Hermida. And if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise. I want him to be worth something nice.

 

And I have very little confidence that Hermida would be that successful anywhere, but any hitter's numbers are bound to improve if they play at CBP.

Depends of course on what they're offering, but it's common knowledge around here that I'm fine with trading Hermida. And if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise. I want him to be worth something nice.

 

And I have very little confidence that Hermida would be that successful anywhere, but any hitter's numbers are bound to improve if they play at CBP.

 

 

 

Hermida did just fine away from Dolphin Stadium last year, just as he's done just fine away from Dolphin Stadium his entire career.

 

Send him to Philly, and the Marlins FO will be regretting it. Not only will Hermida produce nice #'s, but Philly doesn't really have good value that they'd trade to give us back in return. Plus...why trade a 25 year old OF'er, who had an OPS+ of 125 as a 23 year old, and just last year produced an .851 .OPS away from the football stadium...to a division rival???

 

Makes no sense. Plus, the Marlins currently only have 3 outfielders, to speak of. Ross, Maybin, Hermida. The rest aren't starters...even guys like Raynor in the minors, who don't project to be starters.

 

As for "if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise." What does that mean? The numbers speak for themselves. The best stat for defense is believed to be the +/- stat, and Hermida has been a +.

shows you how much this guy knows when he calls Hermida's D slightly above average

Yes, it means he knows more than alot of the people here.

 

I think he was playing lackadaisical defense the past season. Almost like he was afraid of getting hurt or something. We have seen him play some pretty nice D out there. He has a cannon and unlike what some may want us to think, it is pretty accurate. But if some people don't like a particular player they will say, for instance, he dosen't dive much for balls. When you point out they do it when it is the right decision, they will say if he ran faster he wouldn't have to dive for them.

I thought Cody Ross looked fantastic defensively in right. Brett Carroll seems like he is capable of being a fourth outfielder. However, I am not sure that Maybin will prove ready to be the regular centerfielder based on just his September performance. He wasn't so hot in the minors.

Really? Hermida's defense is slightly above average?

Yes.

How do you figure? He's below average in RZR and also in making outs on balls outside his zone and although he ahs a strong arm it's not particulalry an accurate one.

 

Hey Polo,

 

I made a thread with the plus/minus scores of all the Marlin's last season aswell as in '07. You can check it out >

 

http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/forums/inde...showtopic=85864

 

going via plus/minus, hermida's career has been

 

06: -3 (21st)

07: +7 (9th)

08: +2 (14th)

 

Going by that, I think it's fair to say Hermida is basically an average RFer defensively. And I believe I've gone over with you before why I prefer +/- over rzr/ooz. But even going by RZR/OOZ, I believe Hermida has been roughly average over his career.

 

 

I think defensive stats (even the better ones such as + / - or RZR/OOZ) are still lacking so I would only a put so much weight on them when basing what kind of a defensive player someone is especially if it's a player I watch on a regular basis. This is not the case with offensive stats. For example if my eyes tell me Player XYZ can't hit but the stats tell me otherwise, I would go with the stats over my eyes and say he can hit. But with defensive stats, if the stats tell me Hermida is about average and my eyes tell me he's bad I would go with a combination of the two and say he's below average. Offensive stats paint a very accurate picture of what a player actually did but defensive stats do not paint such an accurate picture.

Depends of course on what they're offering, but it's common knowledge around here that I'm fine with trading Hermida. And if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise. I want him to be worth something nice.

 

And I have very little confidence that Hermida would be that successful anywhere, but any hitter's numbers are bound to improve if they play at CBP.

 

 

 

Hermida did just fine away from Dolphin Stadium last year, just as he's done just fine away from Dolphin Stadium his entire career.

 

Send him to Philly, and the Marlins FO will be regretting it. Not only will Hermida produce nice #'s, but Philly doesn't really have good value that they'd trade to give us back in return. Plus...why trade a 25 year old OF'er, who had an OPS+ of 125 as a 23 year old, and just last year produced an .851 .OPS away from the football stadium...to a division rival???

 

Makes no sense. Plus, the Marlins currently only have 3 outfielders, to speak of. Ross, Maybin, Hermida. The rest aren't starters...even guys like Raynor in the minors, who don't project to be starters.

 

As for "if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise." What does that mean? The numbers speak for themselves. The best stat for defense is believed to be the +/- stat, and Hermida has been a +.

He had a 685 OPS away from DS in 2006. Oh yeah, that's right, his rookie year doesn't count. Just don't here and say something factually incorrect like "his entire career".

 

I don't know what the Phillies have to offer, and I'd like to hear it before I dismiss it. But whether it's the Phillies or anyone else, I think what we get in return for him is much more important than where it comes from or where he goes.

 

Why trade Hermida?

#1 - I don't have any confidence that he will hit well consistently over a whole season ever. I'm not saying he cannot, I am saying I don't have confidence in him, and I doubt the FO has much confidence in him either.

#2 - EVEN IF his problems had everything to do with playing in DS, that doesn't make the problem irrelevant. He's gonna play half his games there while he's here. So even if I assume that he would blossom anywhere else, that doesn't mean that he will do so here.

#3 - I honestly don't buy into the whole "he hits well away" analysis, I think it's a statistical anomaly. And while he did have an OPS away of 851, his overall OPS for the season was 729. That's not something to brag about.

 

Hermida projected to be a starter, and it hasn't worked out that well, so I don't put too much stock into such projections. I'm willing to give new guys an opportunity, and I also think that in a worst case scenario we could still probably move someone who has been versatile like Cantu into LF with McPherson/Helms at 3B and Sanchez at 1B with Ross in RF. Losing Hermida wouldn't present that big a problem, even if we didn't get a replacement in return.

 

Most people disagree about the value of defensive numbers, and I tend to trust my own eyes more than I do complex computations. Hermida is not a good defender.

Depends of course on what they're offering, but it's common knowledge around here that I'm fine with trading Hermida. And if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise. I want him to be worth something nice.

 

And I have very little confidence that Hermida would be that successful anywhere, but any hitter's numbers are bound to improve if they play at CBP.

 

 

 

Hermida did just fine away from Dolphin Stadium last year, just as he's done just fine away from Dolphin Stadium his entire career.

 

Send him to Philly, and the Marlins FO will be regretting it. Not only will Hermida produce nice #'s, but Philly doesn't really have good value that they'd trade to give us back in return. Plus...why trade a 25 year old OF'er, who had an OPS+ of 125 as a 23 year old, and just last year produced an .851 .OPS away from the football stadium...to a division rival???

 

Makes no sense. Plus, the Marlins currently only have 3 outfielders, to speak of. Ross, Maybin, Hermida. The rest aren't starters...even guys like Raynor in the minors, who don't project to be starters.

 

As for "if they think he plays above average defense, wonderful. Don't tell anyone otherwise." What does that mean? The numbers speak for themselves. The best stat for defense is believed to be the +/- stat, and Hermida has been a +.

He had a 685 OPS away from DS in 2006. Oh yeah, that's right, his rookie year doesn't count. Just don't here and say something factually incorrect like "his entire career".

 

I don't know what the Phillies have to offer, and I'd like to hear it before I dismiss it. But whether it's the Phillies or anyone else, I think what we get in return for him is much more important than where it comes from or where he goes.

 

Why trade Hermida?

#1 - I don't have any confidence that he will hit well consistently over a whole season ever. I'm not saying he cannot, I am saying I don't have confidence in him, and I doubt the FO has much confidence in him either.

#2 - EVEN IF his problems had everything to do with playing in DS, that doesn't make the problem irrelevant. He's gonna play half his games there while he's here. So even if I assume that he would blossom anywhere else, that doesn't mean that he will do so here.

#3 - I honestly don't buy into the whole "he hits well away" analysis, I think it's a statistical anomaly. And while he did have an OPS away of 851, his overall OPS for the season was 729. That's not something to brag about.

 

Hermida projected to be a starter, and it hasn't worked out that well, so I don't put too much stock into such projections. I'm willing to give new guys an opportunity, and I also think that in a worst case scenario we could still probably move someone who has been versatile like Cantu into LF with McPherson/Helms at 3B and Sanchez at 1B with Ross in RF. Losing Hermida wouldn't present that big a problem, even if we didn't get a replacement in return.

 

Most people disagree about the value of defensive numbers, and I tend to trust my own eyes more than I do complex computations. Hermida is not a good defender.

 

Reasons not to trade Jeremy Hermida

 

#1- He's going to be 25 years old heading into next year. You dont trade a 25 year old player with that much potential just because he struggled. Remember, he had an .870 OPS in 2007.

 

#2- If we trade Jeremy Hermida, we are not going to get enough back from him. IMO, he will out produce what we get for him next year.

 

#3- Who's going to replace him? Say we trade away Jeremy hermida. We are not going to pick up any FAs that can out produce Hermida IMO. And there is nobody in our minor league system that will out produce Jeremy Hermida either.

 

#4- If he does have an off year next year, it's not like he will cost us a playoff spot. This year, we almost went to the playoffs with a terrible rotation, awful defense, and players that only swing for the fences. If we almost advanced to the playoffs with that team, then we can most defenitely go to the playoffs with Hermida in RF.

Here we go again...

Reasons not to trade Jeremy Hermida

 

#1- He's going to be 25 years old heading into next year. You dont trade a 25 year old player with that much potential just because he struggled. Remember, he had an .870 OPS in 2007.

Potential not realized isn't worth much at all. Now again, let's stop projecting this fallacy that Hermida played well all through 2007. He had a 744 OPS during the first half of the season, when the team was actually somewhat in contention. To his credit, he did put up a ridiculous 956 OPS in the second half, when we were safely out of the race. But pretending he had a consistent productive season is disingenuous. We all know he got hot in the second half and his been cold the rest of his MLB career.

 

#2- If we trade Jeremy Hermida, we are not going to get enough back from him. IMO, he will out produce what we get for him next year.

Well it's a good thing we have you here to tell us the future, but since you really can't, should I take this seriously? Hermida put up a 729 OPS last season, so you cannot say it would be inconceivable that he will perform at that level, perhaps maybe putting up a 750 OPS. I don't think it is that unrealistic to imagine we can plug in someone else who will outperform that. Beyond that, you have no clue what we might get back for him.

 

#3- Who's going to replace him? Say we trade away Jeremy hermida. We are not going to pick up any FAs that can out produce Hermida IMO. And there is nobody in our minor league system that will out produce Jeremy Hermida either.

You also have no idea what potential FA we might acquire, and again, for 5/6ths of Hermida's MLB career, he has consistently put up an OPS below 750 - it is not that high a bar. Even Luis Gonzalez's meager 749 OPS beat Hermida in 2008.

 

#4- If he does have an off year next year, it's not like he will cost us a playoff spot. This year, we almost went to the playoffs with a terrible rotation, awful defense, and players that only swing for the fences. If we almost advanced to the playoffs with that team, then we can most defenitely go to the playoffs with Hermida in RF.

More telling the future eh? And honestly - an off year? Tell me what you think would be a regular year from Hermida, not an especially great or especially bad season, would be like? What do you think Hermida's OPS would be if he had a regular season? Look at his totals from his 3 MLB seasons before you answer that.

You don't know what will happen next year and niether do I. Our success this year had as much to do with the problems other teams in the division had. If we face a much better Braves and Nationals team next year then the same product on the field will not get us as far. We need to improve where possible and we can improve the OF, offensively and defensively, by replacing Hermida.

Well, I, for one, don't want to trade Hermi, especially to the Phillies.

Here we go again...

Reasons not to trade Jeremy Hermida

 

#1- He's going to be 25 years old heading into next year. You dont trade a 25 year old player with that much potential just because he struggled. Remember, he had an .870 OPS in 2007.

Potential not realized isn't worth much at all. Now again, let's stop projecting this fallacy that Hermida played well all through 2007. He had a 744 OPS during the first half of the season, when the team was actually somewhat in contention. To his credit, he did put up a ridiculous 956 OPS in the second half, when we were safely out of the race. But pretending he had a consistent productive season is disingenuous. We all know he got hot in the second half and his been cold the rest of his MLB career.

 

#2- If we trade Jeremy Hermida, we are not going to get enough back from him. IMO, he will out produce what we get for him next year.

Well it's a good thing we have you here to tell us the future, but since you really can't, should I take this seriously? Hermida put up a 729 OPS last season, so you cannot say it would be inconceivable that he will perform at that level, perhaps maybe putting up a 750 OPS. I don't think it is that unrealistic to imagine we can plug in someone else who will outperform that. Beyond that, you have no clue what we might get back for him.

 

#3- Who's going to replace him? Say we trade away Jeremy hermida. We are not going to pick up any FAs that can out produce Hermida IMO. And there is nobody in our minor league system that will out produce Jeremy Hermida either.

You also have no idea what potential FA we might acquire, and again, for 5/6ths of Hermida's MLB career, he has consistently put up an OPS below 750 - it is not that high a bar. Even Luis Gonzalez's meager 749 OPS beat Hermida in 2008.

 

#4- If he does have an off year next year, it's not like he will cost us a playoff spot. This year, we almost went to the playoffs with a terrible rotation, awful defense, and players that only swing for the fences. If we almost advanced to the playoffs with that team, then we can most defenitely go to the playoffs with Hermida in RF.

More telling the future eh? And honestly - an off year? Tell me what you think would be a regular year from Hermida, not an especially great or especially bad season, would be like? What do you think Hermida's OPS would be if he had a regular season? Look at his totals from his 3 MLB seasons before you answer that.

You don't know what will happen next year and niether do I. Our success this year had as much to do with the problems other teams in the division had. If we face a much better Braves and Nationals team next year then the same product on the field will not get us as far. We need to improve where possible and we can improve the OF, offensively and defensively, by replacing Hermida.

 

Yea, I know he had a .744 OPS before he exploded for a .956 OPS. But remember, he was injured for a month and a half before he came back. Im sure that played a huge part in him having a bad first half.

 

Unless we get a player younger then 25 with as much potential as Hermida, it isnt enough.

 

OK, name me a Free agent that we can sign to produce an .800 OPS next year.

 

How is this me telling the future? And yes, he did have an off year. HE CAME OFF AN .856 OPS YEAR! AT 23 YEARS OLD! last year was an off year, no matter how you look at it.

 

And no, keeping Hermida will not keep us away from the playoffs. You know what will keep us away from the playoffs? Bad pitching and terrible defense. We already got MUCH better pitching heading into next year, and our defense, IMO, will be much better as well.

 

Really, theres absolutely no reason to trade away Hermida. He's 25 heading into next year, and has so much potential. And he WILL NOT cost us a playoff spot. Trading him will be very stupid.

The problem with trading Hermida is that we don't really have a good replacement for him. If Bonafacio is really going to play second base, we already have our lead off/speed/slappy happy guy and I wouldn't want another guy like Raynor in the line up as well.

I've stated my opinion of Hermida enough on this forum, so all I will say is if we are going to trade Hermida, I would rather not do it within the division, but would be glad to see him traded before the start of next season.

I'm not much of a Hermida fan either but I'm sick of watching the Marlins trade inside the division. Trade him to the American League if you're serious about moving him. The A's, Mariners, Indians, Blue Jays and Orioles could all use a player like Hermida. In the N.L. the Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cubs and Padres would all probably like to have him too. But, the Marlins don't have to move him unless they get exactly what they want which would likely include his replacement in the outfield.

Here we go again...

Reasons not to trade Jeremy Hermida

 

#1- He's going to be 25 years old heading into next year. You dont trade a 25 year old player with that much potential just because he struggled. Remember, he had an .870 OPS in 2007.

Potential not realized isn't worth much at all. Now again, let's stop projecting this fallacy that Hermida played well all through 2007. He had a 744 OPS during the first half of the season, when the team was actually somewhat in contention. To his credit, he did put up a ridiculous 956 OPS in the second half, when we were safely out of the race. But pretending he had a consistent productive season is disingenuous. We all know he got hot in the second half and his been cold the rest of his MLB career.

 

#2- If we trade Jeremy Hermida, we are not going to get enough back from him. IMO, he will out produce what we get for him next year.

Well it's a good thing we have you here to tell us the future, but since you really can't, should I take this seriously? Hermida put up a 729 OPS last season, so you cannot say it would be inconceivable that he will perform at that level, perhaps maybe putting up a 750 OPS. I don't think it is that unrealistic to imagine we can plug in someone else who will outperform that. Beyond that, you have no clue what we might get back for him.

 

#3- Who's going to replace him? Say we trade away Jeremy hermida. We are not going to pick up any FAs that can out produce Hermida IMO. And there is nobody in our minor league system that will out produce Jeremy Hermida either.

You also have no idea what potential FA we might acquire, and again, for 5/6ths of Hermida's MLB career, he has consistently put up an OPS below 750 - it is not that high a bar. Even Luis Gonzalez's meager 749 OPS beat Hermida in 2008.

 

#4- If he does have an off year next year, it's not like he will cost us a playoff spot. This year, we almost went to the playoffs with a terrible rotation, awful defense, and players that only swing for the fences. If we almost advanced to the playoffs with that team, then we can most defenitely go to the playoffs with Hermida in RF.

More telling the future eh? And honestly - an off year? Tell me what you think would be a regular year from Hermida, not an especially great or especially bad season, would be like? What do you think Hermida's OPS would be if he had a regular season? Look at his totals from his 3 MLB seasons before you answer that.

You don't know what will happen next year and niether do I. Our success this year had as much to do with the problems other teams in the division had. If we face a much better Braves and Nationals team next year then the same product on the field will not get us as far. We need to improve where possible and we can improve the OF, offensively and defensively, by replacing Hermida.

 

Jeremy Hermida has been better than/as good as Bernie Williams through the same points in their respective careers... 'nuff said

Yea, I know he had a .744 OPS before he exploded for a .956 OPS. But remember, he was injured for a month and a half before he came back. Im sure that played a huge part in him having a bad first half.

 

Unless we get a player younger then 25 with as much potential as Hermida, it isnt enough.

What year hasn't he been injured? And why isn't that also relevant for a guy who is only 25 to be that fragile?

 

OK, name me a Free agent that we can sign to produce an .800 OPS next year.

Is this serious? Again, Hermida would be showing improvment if he was able to put up a 760 OPS next year, so why do I need to come up with an 800+ OPS in the first place? Anyway, among OF FAs, there are 5 type As and 6 type Bs. Even if I don't believe that we will likely pick up one of those, it's pretty silly IMO to act as if there are no FA OF better than Jeremy Hermida.

 

How is this me telling the future? And yes, he did have an off year. HE CAME OFF AN .856 OPS YEAR! AT 23 YEARS OLD! last year was an off year, no matter how you look at it.

No, it wasn't, at least not the way I see it. And since you ignored my question, let me repeat it - considering that in 5/6ths of Hermida's time in MLB he has put up an OPS below 750, how is it that you can qualify his 2008 season as being an "off year"? The excluded 1/6th of his MLB career (his second half of 2007) was far out of line with his production at any other time, and I really cannot understand why some of you insist that this should be what we look at as Hermida's "normal" production as opposed to what he has done more often as in throughout 2008. I mean in trying to assess what a "normal year" (as opposed to an "off year") would be for Hermida, and perhaps I approach this in too simple a way, I think that what someone has done about 83% of the time in his career should be considered normal. So I reject the notion that 2008 was an off year. It was not especially different from any other time in Hermida's MLB career EXCEPT that second half of 2007.

An example of an off-year would be Mike Lowell in 2005, where his numbers were far below the numbers he had put up in his preceding seasons as a starting MLB position player. Hermida's numbers in 2008 line up well with most of what he has done as major league starter.

 

And no, keeping Hermida will not keep us away from the playoffs. You know what will keep us away from the playoffs? Bad pitching and terrible defense. We already got MUCH better pitching heading into next year, and our defense, IMO, will be much better as well.

 

Really, theres absolutely no reason to trade away Hermida. He's 25 heading into next year, and has so much potential. And he WILL NOT cost us a playoff spot. Trading him will be very stupid.

Assuming (and I will) that you haven't seen the 2009 season yet and you don't know how we finish in the standings, you cannot assert this. You can believe it, but you cannot state it as a matter of fact.

As for defense, Hermida doesn't add much there in my opinion and that of many others on here.

 

And you can call it stupid and talk up Hermida as much as you like. In 2008, Hermida ranked 19th out of 21 full-time RFs in OPS. Expand that to all full-time MLB OFs and Hermida ranks 51 out of 58. And his numbers were like they have been most of his MLB career.

let me repeat it - considering that in 5/6ths of Hermida's time in MLB he has put up an OPS below 750, how is it that you can qualify his 2008 season as being an "off year"? The excluded 1/6th of his MLB career (his second half of 2007) was far out of line with his production at any other time, and I really cannot understand why some of you insist that this should be what we look at as Hermida's "normal" production as opposed to what he has done more often as in throughout 2008.

Really? 5/6ths the time he has been horrible. Nice way to split seasons into pre and post and just say, yea 5 of them have been bad. Your characterization of the facts is horrendous.

 

2008

HOME, 251 PA, .203/.273/.312 (.584) < - This is beyond horrible

AWAY, 299 PA, .288/.364/.487 (.851) < - Oh snap!

 

So last year Hermida was what we expected from him at 24 years old on the road, and just somehow didn't get any god dam hits at home. This is a fluke. Players do not have 300 OPS HOME/ROAD splits (I can understand LHP/RHP, but Home/Road? This isn't Colorado in the 90s, our right field isn't that dominant over left handers), where one of them is above average production, and one is outrageously outrageously below. Yea, it was a disappointing year. No one is arguing against that. But it's not like Hermida was an across the board failure in 08 where the stats suggest he can't hit anything. It's absolutely to the contrary, and people like you who want to drive him out of town at the first big speed bump in his development, are literally insane. Yes, I said the first big speed bump. Because that is what this is.

 

2007

The Home/Away are both over .750 which is your number, but I'll throw you a bone.

 

PRE, 196 PA, .231/.322/.422 (.744) < - Typical of a 23 year old second time through league

POST 280 PA, .340/.401/.555 (.956) < - On Fire

 

He was also hurt the first half of the season (not a speed bump, an injury where he came out and was completely fine all of 2008) before obliterating pitching for 3 months. The POST is easily overachieving. It's a BA spike and no one is expecting him to be a .950 OPS player right now. But let's look at his 2008 away and post. These are strong indicators when he settles into his own as a player. He could hit .300, with a .375 OBP, and .500+ slugging. Yea, he is tentative in his approach. Yea, he sits on offspeed pitches and doesn't like to take the fastballs he is given. He's also 24, and baseball was never a challenge for him at any level of competition until he got to the bigs. The learning curve is taking effect. You don't dump him because he got hurt when he was 22 and because he didn't hit at home in 2008. That is foolish. I'm not stretching very fair into splits-insanity to make this argument. I'm not arguing Hermida led this team in 2 out RBI doubles in August and that's why we should keep him. There are very strong indicators he will hit.

 

He has not been a constant failure as you incorrectly characterize. The thing is, when he's good. He's really good. When he's bad, he's really bad. The offense in 2008 shows this completely. Defense too. People are harping on his dropped balls in the outfield, but then don't give him credit for the however many extra balls he gets to a year because he has PLUS range for right fielders. I'm not saying he is anything more than a neutral defender at best, but it's individual situations of absolute tomfoolery that people focus on instead of looking at the cumulation of what he does as a player. This isn't fair to Hermida. Also, I believe Marlins fans are delusional to player development because of the absolute gifts of players we've received with Beckett, Cabrera, and Hanley. They immediately were awesome. It took years for Marlins fans to figure out what we had with Derek Lee, and you still see idiots on the board saying he was a whatever player for us. It's the same situation with Hermida. Top prospect, initial struggles, people's expectations are so high they overly judge him when he isn't immediately awesome, aggravation sets in for people who have a clue as people want to trade him for 50 cents on the dollars with no way to replace him.

 

It's to our benefit to see if Hermida comes into camp on fire after 6 months of sitting on his ass after a failure of a season. I'm not saying you are going to be wrong, I'm saying there are legitimate factors to keep him around, and if he becomes what those factors suggest, that is worth losing whatever diminished 'trade value' he currently has after a disappointing 2008. He got benched for the first time in his life. I'm hoping that pissed him off and he starts WANTING it. When that happens, watch out. All this kid needs is some focus. We'll know after 2009 what we have with Hermida. If he repeats 2008, we tried. We followed the development process, it didn't work, and then we can move onto other options (and even at this point Hermida isn't done as a player, but a chance of scenery would simply have to occur). Furthermore, considering we have only 2 MLB outfielders in our organization (Hermida, Ross), Maybin jumping from AA, and a lot of question marks with Raynor, Cousins, Petersen, Carroll, J. Miller, and De Aza, it's idiotic to remove any OF talent from this organization right now. We need Hermida whether you like it or not.

 

I will be perfectly happy not saying his name in any fashion until March, and then we can rev this up again as we see what shows up in Spring Training. These posts need to end already.

I'm not saying he is anything more than a neutral defender at best, but it's individual situations of absolute tomfoolery that people focus on instead of looking at the cumulation of what he does as a player.

 

 

I was going to heap praise all over that long post, but hell you had me at "tomfoolery".

 

:wub:

MarlinsLou, greatest post regarding Jeremy Hermida ever. Sums up all my thoughts.

Lou wins

but...but...I hate Hermida

 

but...but...I hate Hermida

 

 

That's no excuse why not to keep him. :whistle

By the way, great post Lou. I always seem to get an orgasm when reading your posts.

Yet even through all that reading, the fact remains if the marlins get a good deal they will and should trade him. Don't ditch him on a deal like the willingham/olsen one, but a good deal? Foolish not to, in baseball and sports in general if a good trade comes up its usually a good idea to do it.

 

And before I hear the "who will play OF" argument again, this whole thread is based on a hypothetical of trading hermida, so we don't know who we'd get back.

Really? 5/6ths the time he has been horrible. Nice way to split seasons into pre and post and just say, yea 5 of them have been bad. Your characterization of the facts is horrendous.

My characterization of the facts is accurate. I cut his career up by half seasons because the longest strecth of time over which he was CONSISTENTLY (that is important right?) PRODUCTIVE was the second half of 2007, while all of the Hermida homers want to throw out the 870 OPS as if it was indicative of a consistent season. It's not, and that is the reason I split up the numbers the way I do, to isolate and show exactly when Hermida was productive rather than mislead people with meaningless splits. I'm also starting to really get tired of how everyone of you completely ignores 2006 as though it never happened, and aren't even willing to concede that Hermida belonged in the minors that year. Had we not wasted that first season of his, he wouldn't be up for arbitration and we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

2008

HOME, 251 PA, .203/.273/.312 (.584) < - This is beyond horrible

AWAY, 299 PA, .288/.364/.487 (.851) < - Oh snap!

 

So last year Hermida was what we expected from him at 24 years old on the road, and just somehow didn't get any god dam hits at home. This is a fluke. Players do not have 300 OPS HOME/ROAD splits (I can understand LHP/RHP, but Home/Road? This isn't Colorado in the 90s, our right field isn't that dominant over left handers), where one of them is above average production, and one is outrageously outrageously below. Yea, it was a disappointing year. No one is arguing against that. But it's not like Hermida was an across the board failure in 08 where the stats suggest he can't hit anything. It's absolutely to the contrary, and people like you who want to drive him out of town at the first big speed bump in his development, are literally insane. Yes, I said the first big speed bump. Because that is what this is.

I agree, the split is a fluke. And DS isn't to blame. That's why I consider Hermida's numbers as a whole and ignore this ridiculous splits. I'm sure if I split his numbers between his multihit games and the rest that it would also look very different, but it would mean nothing just the same. Home/Away splits are irrelevant unless you're talking about someone who is primarily a power hitter, and Hermida isn't.

I guess the real question is what are you calling a fluke here? The split itself? Do you think Hermida's inability to put up that 850 OPS at home was a fluke? Take the season as a whole and it's basically the same thing he did in 2006 and the first half of 2007.

 

2007

The Home/Away are both over .750 which is your number, but I'll throw you a bone.

That's because he played both home and away during the second half, which I've already acknowledged a thousand times that Hermida hit insanely well. But I'll restate that I think Home vs Away splits are of negligible importance if not entirely irrelevant.

 

PRE, 196 PA, .231/.322/.422 (.744) < - Typical of a 23 year old second time through league

POST 280 PA, .340/.401/.555 (.956) < - On Fire

 

He was also hurt the first half of the season (not a speed bump, an injury where he came out and was completely fine all of 2008) before obliterating pitching for 3 months. The POST is easily overachieving. It's a BA spike and no one is expecting him to be a .950 OPS player right now. But let's look at his 2008 away and post. These are strong indicators when he settles into his own as a player. He could hit .300, with a .375 OBP, and .500+ slugging. Yea, he is tentative in his approach. Yea, he sits on offspeed pitches and doesn't like to take the fastballs he is given. He's also 24, and baseball was never a challenge for him at any level of competition until he got to the bigs. The learning curve is taking effect. You don't dump him because he got hurt when he was 22 and because he didn't hit at home in 2008. That is foolish. I'm not stretching very fair into splits-insanity to make this argument. I'm not arguing Hermida led this team in 2 out RBI doubles in August and that's why we should keep him. There are very strong indicators he will hit.

I'm gonna assume you mean 2007 there at the top because I remember him starting 2008 on the DL as well.

Either way, the only game you have to play here is make excuses - he was young here, hurt there, never challenged before, etc etc. The bottom line is that the only time he has ever performed well for a significant stretch, even you concede that he was vastly overachieving, and that even that stretch of time was only half a season. At what point does putting up a 729 OPS over an entire season become a problem to all of you? When he's 25? 26? 27?

 

He has not been a constant failure as you incorrectly characterize. The thing is, when he's good. He's really good. When he's bad, he's really bad. The offense in 2008 shows this completely. Defense too. People are harping on his dropped balls in the outfield, but then don't give him credit for the however many extra balls he gets to a year because he has PLUS range for right fielders. I'm not saying he is anything more than a neutral defender at best, but it's individual situations of absolute tomfoolery that people focus on instead of looking at the cumulation of what he does as a player. This isn't fair to Hermida. Also, I believe Marlins fans are delusional to player development because of the absolute gifts of players we've received with Beckett, Cabrera, and Hanley. They immediately were awesome. It took years for Marlins fans to figure out what we had with Derek Lee, and you still see idiots on the board saying he was a whatever player for us. It's the same situation with Hermida. Top prospect, initial struggles, people's expectations are so high they overly judge him when he isn't immediately awesome, aggravation sets in for people who have a clue as people want to trade him for 50 cents on the dollars with no way to replace him.

The problem I have is that he's been "really bad" for 2? seasons and insanely good for ? season, and people act as though the bad times are the irregularity. As for his "plus range", all I can say is that as a plain ol fan, I don't recall seeing as much of that as the opposite. But moreover, I can more forgive a guy like Willingham who maybe doesn't have amazing range but actually looks like he's really hustling and working hard when he has a play to make.

I also think you're being ridiculous in bringing up all these other players. If Hermida's a victim of expectations, than it's the expectations set up by all the hype he had coming into 2006 where he was expected to be a top ROTY candidate on Opening Day. It has nothing to do with Cabrera or Beckett or Derrek Lee.

It's to our benefit to see if Hermida comes into camp on fire after 6 months of sitting on his ass after a failure of a season. I'm not saying you are going to be wrong, I'm saying there are legitimate factors to keep him around, and if he becomes what those factors suggest, that is worth losing whatever diminished 'trade value' he currently has after a disappointing 2008. He got benched for the first time in his life. I'm hoping that pissed him off and he starts WANTING it. When that happens, watch out. All this kid needs is some focus. We'll know after 2009 what we have with Hermida. If he repeats 2008, we tried. We followed the development process, it didn't work, and then we can move onto other options (and even at this point Hermida isn't done as a player, but a chance of scenery would simply have to occur). Furthermore, considering we have only 2 MLB outfielders in our organization (Hermida, Ross), Maybin jumping from AA, and a lot of question marks with Raynor, Cousins, Petersen, Carroll, J. Miller, and De Aza, it's idiotic to remove any OF talent from this organization right now. We need Hermida whether you like it or not.

I have no issue with giving Hermida a chance in ST unless it means we passed up a good deal that would've improved the team. But on the other side of your hypothetical 2009 ST & regular season, I would have a real problem if Hermida came back just the same and was being payed arbitration while again getting benched. And again, considering that Hermida was outperformed offensively by the ancient Luis Gonzalez last season, I reject the idea that we NEED Hermida.

 

I will be perfectly happy not saying his name in any fashion until March, and then we can rev this up again as we see what shows up in Spring Training. These posts need to end already.

And I don't think you can say that it's better to wait until ST unless you what is being offered for him.

I can;t speak for anyone else on the board, but my argument isn't and has never been that Hermida sucks, or that he won't ever be better than he is now. The key is that we should shop him around and see whats on the table. To completely turn down even great offers on the hope he'll have his breakout year this year is not smart team management.