Posted September 1, 200915 yr I'm not going to cover the last few games, and playoffs for the most part. It is what it is at this point. --- NOLA (AAA) Cameron Maybin August - 56 AB, .286/.328/.429 (.756), 4/11 BB/K, 1 SB Season - 298 AB, .319/.399/.463 (.862), 3 HR, 26 2B/3B, 38/58 BB/K, 8/2 SB Was banged up a little bit which explains the decreased AB. He is now with the MLB club for probably here on out. All and all, a pretty good year in AAA. If he hits 60+ XBH hits in the majors over 650 AB, that’s going to be one hell of a player. Hopefully more of them turn into HR, and those SB numbers triple-quadruple, but this was an excellent year for Cam and hopefully he holds his own in the 15+ starts he’ll have with the Marlins in September. He should be penned into center field in 2010. Gaby Sanchez August - 66 AB, .318/.458/.576 (1.034), 5 HR, 15/5 BB/K Season - 298 AB, .292/.377/.470 (.847), 14 HR, 38/42 BB/K, 5/0 SB Organization won’t let him play at the MLB level, but he continues to rake. The BB/K is pretty excellent, and this could be a .775-.825 OPSing player at the big league level. Which is a very solid starter. Morrison may have more upside, but it should be his job to lose in Spring training for 1B. He deserves the opportunity. Jai Miller August - 91 AB, .253/.346/.495 (.841), 6 HR, 11/35 BB/K Season - 323 AB, .282/.353/.502 (.855), 15 HR, 35/99 BB/K, 6/3 SB Nothing has changed report to report. Still to many strikeouts. This is the next in the Reggie Abercrombie-Charleston Jimerson line of AAAA toolsy outfielders who will get a few shots in the bigs, but probably aren’t good enough to hold down a backup job because lack of contact. Jai has to be on our 25 man roster in 2010, as he is out of options, so it’s likely he is back for Spring Training 2010 and he must win a job to stay in the organization. Alejandro De Aza August - 58 AB, .293/.379/.534 (.913), 2 HR, 6/15 BB/K, 0/2 SB Season - 258 AB, .295/.359/.508 (.867), 8 HR, 23/51 BB/K, 8/5 SB This is a lot better than I thought before I did this. He’ll have a shot at the backup job in spring training, and I believe we can stick him in AAA for one more year. John Raynor August - 85 AB, .306/.388/.459 (.847), 2 HR, 10/19 BB/K, 4/2 SB Season - 423 AB, .258/.327/.362 (.689), 6 HR, 39/114 BB/K, 18/8 SB Ending strong which is nice to see. He’ll be more than likely placed on the 40 man roster before the Rule5 draft and sent back to NOLA in 2010. Those strikeouts are a bit worrisome though. Brett Hayes August - 68 AB, .176/.250/.235 (.485), 1 HR, 6/20 BB/K Season - 322 AB, .239/.281/.323 (.604), 4 HR, 20/66 BB/K, 2/0 SB Up with the club for September, back to NOLA in April as our 3rd catcher. After this year, he has no chance at the backup roll for 2010. Brett Carroll August - 76 AB, .276/.329/.539 (.869), 5 HR, 6/16 BB/K, 0/1 SB Season - 103 AB, .233/.295/.427 (.722), 5 HR, 8/23 BB/K, 0/1 SB BC is out of options after this season, so he will more than likely be the Marlins 4th or 5th outfielder for next year. Hopefully they give him more playing time, as he clearly is the best defensive outfielder in the organization and he has power potential. If he can OPS a mid 700 in a platoon role, that’s a very good player to have around. JACKSONVILLE (AA) Bryan Petersen August - 98 AB, .337/.411/.510 (.921), 3 HR, 13/7 BB/K, 1/6 SB/CS Season - 410 AB, .302/.375/.422 (.797), 7 HR, 49/66 BB/K, 12/12 SB/CS He’s been on fire for three months, but the fact he is an outfielder, and pretty much a corner outfielder, makes that lack of HR pop a bit concerning for the longterm. The BB/K and average easily suggest he’ll hit MLB pitching, but even if it’s .290/.360/.440, we’re talking an average OF as the HIGH, with no real longterm potential to turn into an above average producer (which is the goal of every position). I like BP. I think by 2011, he and Cousins will be in a platoon in LF/RF (depending on where Stanton and Morrison land), but I can only get excited in a “matt murtonâ€� kind of way, and not as a future starter kind of way. Logan Morrison August - 99 AB, .293/.393/.434 (.828), 1 HR, 16/17 BB/K, 3/2 SB/CS Season - 257 AB, .280/.419/.459 (.878), 8 HR, 61/42 BB/K, 7/3 SB/CS It’s pretty exciting his “badâ€� month is “Chris Coghlan.â€� Because of the low quantity of AB, I’d like to see him play winter ball somewhere in the DR, and then get 200 PA in NOLA before the inevitable callup. He will be placed on the 40 man roster by the Rule5 draft. Scott Cousins August - 93 AB, .269/.340/.495 (.834), 3 HR, 10/19 BB/K, 5/4 SB/CS Season - 463 AB, .259/.322/.443 (.765), 39 2B/3B, 12 HR, 42/99 BB/K, 26/9 SB/CS Ending strong. The strikeouts are a big concern, and you’d like to have seen an extra 15-20 BB on the year, but this was an OK year. Not the breakout we hoped, but he still holds his own and shows enough promise to potentially turn into a longterm starter. Look at the huge quantity of XBH, the speed, and remember he is the second best defensive outfielder we have next to BC. He will be going to the AFL, and probably promoted to AAA next year. He will have to go on the 40 man roster before the Rule5 draft too. Mike Stanton August - 100 AB, .210/.281/.390 (.671), 4 HR, 11/34 BB/K Season AA - 278 AB, .234/.310/.453 (.763), 14 HR, 27/93 BB/K, 1/1 SB Season A+ - 180 AB, .294/.390/.578 (.968), 12 HR, 28/45 BB/K, 2/2 SB I’m going to say a .763 OPS as a 19 year old in AA is pretty impressive. Obviously need to see the whiffs go down, walks go up, and add at least 50 points in average, but he held his own which is all you can ask for. He will probably start 2010 in AA again, and if he comes out like he did in Jupiter this year, see a summer promotion to AAA. I still think the first we see him is a September callup in 2010, and maybe become a starting option if everything goes perfect summer 2011. I think it’s likely he’ll be a top 5 overall prospect in MLB when Baseball America releases their new list in the fall. Matt Dominguez August/Season AA - 82 AB, .183/.280/.280 (.560), 1 HR, 11/19 BB/K Season A+ - 381 AB, .262/.333/.420 (.753), 11 HR, 38/68 BB/K, 1/0 SB Brutal promotion, but he was tearing up A+ (had a horrible start, awesome end of his team in Jupiter which explains the low overall line. Also remember park factors). He will begin in AA next year, and probably stay there the entire season. JUPITER (A+) Literally no one of interest. GREENSBORO (A) Thomas Hickman August/Season - 76 AB, .355/.473/.750 (1.223), 7 HR, 16/22 BB/K, 2/2 SB Blast from the past is killing baseballs. Very old for this level, I’m guessing they move him to Jacksonville to start 2010 and maybe he can reclaim some of his prospect status. If you don’t know who Hickman is, he was considered a “Hermida Liteâ€� when drafted because he walks a ton. But Hickman also likes to strikeout every 3rd AB which really hurts his prospect status. Jake Smolinski August - 44 AB, .409/.458/.545 (1.004), 2/8 BB/K Season - .285/.380/.449 (.829), 7 HR, 36/44 BB/K, 2/5 SB Got banged up a little, but was ending the year really strong before he did. I hope this is not a trend where he is injury prone, because when he plays he produces pretty well. Very solid season in GBO coming back from a major arm injury. He will probably open in Jupiter and start comparing comparisons to Coghlan if he relatively repeats the success of this season. Isaac Galloway August - 95 AB, .263/.283/.368 (.651), 1 HR, 6/28 BB/K, 7/2 SB Season - 313 AB, .265/.293/.380 (.673), 3 HR, 12//83 BB/K, 14/8 SB All tools. Way to many Ks. He probably repeats Greensboro. It’s to early to tell, but this may be the next Greg Burns who everyone loves athletically, but just doesn’t put it together as a player. But he’s very young so this could turn around real quick. Kyle Skipworth August - 17 AB, .235/.316/.647 (.963), 2 HR, 2/4 BB/K Season - 264 AB, .208/.263/.348 (.612), 7 HR, 18/91 BB/K, 1/2 SB Got hurt, but he hit some HR. Anything positive. He will start again in Greensboro, and it just has to be better. He’s the biggest bust of the 2008 draft as of right now. JAMESTOWN (A-) No one of interest. GCL Marlins ® Marcell Ozuna August - 91 AB, .264/.349/.396 (.744), 2 HR, 13/26 BB/K Season - 214 AB, .313/.377/.486 (.863), 5 HR, 22/52 BB/K, 4/2 SB Slowed down a bit, but looking OK. That’s a lot of strikeouts, but he’s extremely young. He’ll probably get some time in Jamestown and Greensboro next year where the real talent evaluation will begin. -------------------- Position Prospects Rankings Post 2009 (and I realize some of them aren't prospects as BC, ADA, Maybin, have accrued some time, but this is a list for what's in the minors) Scale A-Potential Stars B+-Potential Above Average Starters B-Potential Average Starters C+-Potential Solid Platoon/Role/Backend Rotation/Middle Relief C-Potential Backend Bench/Bullpen C- Fringe MLB players A Mike Stanton Cameron Maybin Logan Morrison B+ Matt Dominguez B Kyle Skipworth (on reputation alone at least for one more season) Gaby Sanchez Jake Smolinski C+ Scott Cousins Bryan Petersen C Brett Carroll John Raynor Brett Hayes C- Alejandro De Aza Jai Miller To Young to rank Isaac Galloway Marcell Ozuna
September 1, 200915 yr Thanks for the write-up. It's pretty cool that this team is all of a sudden extremely deep with position players. Especially nice is that 2 out of 3 "A" prospects are just about ready, in Cameron and Logan. Also, of the players who most of us were projecting to be the 2011 starters, no one has really disappointed. If anything, I've become more impressed with Logan for sure, Stanton's beastness, and Dominguez showing the pop which could make him a really stellar 3B.
September 2, 200915 yr I'd put Gaby as a C+ as a 1B. B- to MAYBE B if he can field 3b average. Average 1b hovers around the mid to midlow 800s. Average 3b hovers around mid to midhigh 700 OPS. But if he puts up a, say, 800 OPS, he's have to save 10 runs on defense to be average 1B. And I think 800 OPS is kinda optimistic. The only way I see it happening is if he breaks over a .150 ISO. He doesn't show good BABIP skills and we can basically pencil in his good BB% and K%. Though a .150 ISO might be low-balling him, .199 ISO last year and .183 ISO this year. 800 OPS basically banks on him putting up something like a .175 ISO which isn't that far fetched. And while we can't really say what his D at 3b is, we have to assume the fact that he's not there full time means it's basically just a prayer at this point. But if he's average D at 3b, that means he's average O at 3b with maybe above average O. I was going to say Pete and Cousins should be B- but I thought average corner OPS was around same as 3b but it's actually basically 800 OPS. However, both can play CF, and Cousins can play CF well, so I think that should be enough to rank them to B- (CF is mid to midlow 700 OPSs, which they should match offensively at least). Maybe even B for Cousins since it's both defense and base running for him. I mean, we have a cornerstone in CF, so I understand that for us their CF value doesn't mean anything, but prospect status should be based on the individuals value than the value he is to the team he's currently on.
September 2, 200915 yr I'd put Gaby as a C+ as a 1B. B- to MAYBE B if he can field 3b average. Average 1b hovers around the mid to midlow 800s. Average 3b hovers around mid to midhigh 700 OPS. But if he puts up a, say, 800 OPS, he's have to save 10 runs on defense to be average 1B. And I think 800 OPS is kinda optimistic. The only way I see it happening is if he breaks over a .150 ISO. He doesn't show good BABIP skills and we can basically pencil in his good BB% and K%. Though a .150 ISO might be low-balling him, .199 ISO last year and .183 ISO this year. 800 OPS basically banks on him putting up something like a .175 ISO which isn't that far fetched. And while we can't really say what his D at 3b is, we have to assume the fact that he's not there full time means it's basically just a prayer at this point. But if he's average D at 3b, that means he's average O at 3b with maybe above average O. I was going to say Pete and Cousins should be B- but I thought average corner OPS was around same as 3b but it's actually basically 800 OPS. However, both can play CF, and Cousins can play CF well, so I think that should be enough to rank them to B- (CF is mid to midlow 700 OPSs, which they should match offensively at least). Maybe even B for Cousins since it's both defense and base running for him. I mean, we have a cornerstone in CF, so I understand that for us their CF value doesn't mean anything, but prospect status should be based on the individuals value than the value he is to the team he's currently on. I'm no expert at this, and it's why I ask...but isn't .BABIP a "luck" stat?
September 2, 200915 yr no, it's a skill that is the most affected by luck. I asked b/c most of the time when people mention .BABIP it's to note how lucky/unlucky a certain player has been. Example being Dan Uggla, this year.
September 2, 200915 yr BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in play, isn't it? So, the higher your BABIP is, the higher you're BA will be. If it is higher than the average BABIP, you are lucky, and if it is lower, then you are unlucky. Funny thing is, Albert Pujol's BABIP is lower than the average BABIP.
September 2, 200915 yr Author I'd put Gaby as a C+ as a 1B. B- to MAYBE B if he can field 3b average. Average 1b hovers around the mid to midlow 800s. Average 3b hovers around mid to midhigh 700 OPS. But if he puts up a, say, 800 OPS, he's have to save 10 runs on defense to be average 1B. And I think 800 OPS is kinda optimistic. The only way I see it happening is if he breaks over a .150 ISO. He doesn't show good BABIP skills and we can basically pencil in his good BB% and K%. Though a .150 ISO might be low-balling him, .199 ISO last year and .183 ISO this year. 800 OPS basically banks on him putting up something like a .175 ISO which isn't that far fetched. And while we can't really say what his D at 3b is, we have to assume the fact that he's not there full time means it's basically just a prayer at this point. But if he's average D at 3b, that means he's average O at 3b with maybe above average O. I was going to say Pete and Cousins should be B- but I thought average corner OPS was around same as 3b but it's actually basically 800 OPS. However, both can play CF, and Cousins can play CF well, so I think that should be enough to rank them to B- (CF is mid to midlow 700 OPSs, which they should match offensively at least). Maybe even B for Cousins since it's both defense and base running for him. I mean, we have a cornerstone in CF, so I understand that for us their CF value doesn't mean anything, but prospect status should be based on the individuals value than the value he is to the team he's currently on. I think Gaby can pull off a close to .800 OPS at 1B/3B. I really wasn't looking at it compared to average production at a position, which would be a more exact analysis I agree, but more of a generally speaking "Gaby should become a starter." That BB/K is going to translate, and he's going to hit. The only question is whether it's going to be a .425 slug, or a .475 slug. Making him just an average kind of Cantu player, or more of Lyle Overbay/Sean Casey who can have a peak years here or there. I'm with you where I see the former, but I don't see anything wrong with a .270/.350/.425 Gaby, that rarely strikes out and racks up RBIs as a result batting 6th or 7th. It's someone you want to improve from, but that's a solid player. Petersen, no slugging. I can't get behind him as a starter even if he is very similar to Gaby with good contact rates. Sanchez being able to cover infield slots gets him over corner outfielders that do the same thing prospect wise for me. And Petersen really isn't a longterm CF to bump him up there even if he could do it. Cousins is still striking out a bit to much for me to bump him into the B range. The thing with him is, I find your defense/speed argument very persuasive, but that's more for his upside then what he is doing now. Cousins has the chance to be a B+ easily because of his tools, but I can't jump him over the solid BB/K "safe" prospects because he has ancillary production (even though it 100% counts). I love his slugging, he walks OK, but he needs to improve with the bat. I'm not to pumped with striking out 20-22% of the time in AA. Especially since he's a lefty and will start getting LOOGY'd more per level (2009 - .793 RHP / .672 LHP). He has a lot of work to do before we pencil him into RF longterm.
September 2, 200915 yr BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in play, isn't it? So, the higher your BABIP is, the higher you're BA will be. If it is higher than the average BABIP, you are lucky, and if it is lower, then you are unlucky. Funny thing is, Albert Pujol's BABIP is lower than the average BABIP. Yeah, that's amazing. My question is, though...(for those who know the stat really well), would you call Hanley Ramirez a bit "lucky" this year, considering his .BABIP is at .401? Or how would that work?
September 2, 200915 yr Author BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in play, isn't it? So, the higher your BABIP is, the higher you're BA will be. If it is higher than the average BABIP, you are lucky, and if it is lower, then you are unlucky. Funny thing is, Albert Pujol's BABIP is lower than the average BABIP. Yeah, that's amazing. My question is, though...(for those who know the stat really well), would you call Hanley Ramirez a bit "lucky" this year, considering his .BABIP is at .401? Or how would that work? Yes. With his speed he should have a perpetual "over achieving BABIP" as he can beat out those extra 10 hits a year in the infield, but he's certainly gotten more hits than the average from the balls he's hit. He's probably closer to a .320-.330 hitter based on his performance. Nothing crazy, but it is a drop.
September 2, 200915 yr BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in play, isn't it? So, the higher your BABIP is, the higher you're BA will be. If it is higher than the average BABIP, you are lucky, and if it is lower, then you are unlucky. Funny thing is, Albert Pujol's BABIP is lower than the average BABIP. Yeah, that's amazing. My question is, though...(for those who know the stat really well), would you call Hanley Ramirez a bit "lucky" this year, considering his .BABIP is at .401? Or how would that work? Yes. With his speed he should have a perpetual "over achieving BABIP" as he can beat out those extra 10 hits a year in the infield, but he's certainly gotten more hits than the average from the balls he's hit. He's probably closer to a .320-.330 hitter based on his performance. Nothing crazy, but it is a drop. Ok...what's the league average .BABIP? EDIT: Forget it. Looking at the baseball reference stats page, it looks like it's .265.
September 2, 200915 yr don't compare hitters to league average. The best thing to do is to compare it to their pro career, while keeping in mind that minor league babip is gonna drop going to MLB. every hitter has a different ability to hit for balls in play. A lot of things go into it. basically keep this in mind when it comes to hitters .330-.350+ = where a topend player's career will normally be around. Either because they're very fast or very good at hitting or a mixture of the two (hanley falls in this catagory. A realistic BABIP option for him is around .350). .310-.330 = good but not special ability to hit .300-.310 = where you're average joe is going to fall below .300 = either massive power hitters (Think Mark McGwire, career .260 BABIP. Carlos Pena is another) or players who aren't going to make it in the majors also, league average BABIP is basically always around .300. I'd assume you're looking at the wrong thing if you got .265 Following that you can more or less say if a hitter is lucky or not. A quick run down of our top guys...Maybin should be in catagory 1, Logan will hopefully be in catagory 1 but might be catagory 2, Dominguez should be average, and Stanton will hopefully be average because of his athleticism but he has not shown much of an ability in the minors and might fall under .300 catagory. For Gaby, his MILB career BABIP is only .320, he does not have an impressive LD rate though it's not bad either (17.7%), he's doesn't hit a lot of GBs and hits a good amount of FBs (good for power, not good for BABIP), he has decent but not great speed, yadda yadda. With his plate discipline maybe he can got knocked into the second catagory but I'd wager he's .300-.310
September 2, 200915 yr BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in play, isn't it? So, the higher your BABIP is, the higher you're BA will be. If it is higher than the average BABIP, you are lucky, and if it is lower, then you are unlucky. Funny thing is, Albert Pujol's BABIP is lower than the average BABIP. Yeah, that's amazing. My question is, though...(for those who know the stat really well), would you call Hanley Ramirez a bit "lucky" this year, considering his .BABIP is at .401? Or how would that work? Yes. With his speed he should have a perpetual "over achieving BABIP" as he can beat out those extra 10 hits a year in the infield, but he's certainly gotten more hits than the average from the balls he's hit. He's probably closer to a .320-.330 hitter based on his performance. Nothing crazy, but it is a drop. Yeah, Hanley's BABIP skillset is probably around .350. A .400 BABIP skillset would make hanley the greatest hitter of all time. I was trying to find the best comparison for Hanley in the history of the game based off what he's done as his age, and the only thing I could even come up with is Derek Jeter with power. I'm sure there's better things out there but oh well. Actually David Wright was the best I came up with but he's still young so can't really go off anything. BR has Jeter #4, Wright #5 as comps through age 24 but I also don't really like those ahead of them (Nomar, McCann, and Cano in that order). NEWAY The Jeter comp isn't perfect because Hanley has more speed, and Jeter hits a lot more GBs, but Jeter has a career .361 BABIP. Jeter has a career .317/.387/.460/.847 line. We can say that although hanley will probably have a lower BABIP, he hits more HRs because he hits more FBs, so average is basically wash, since they K at the same rate, meaning OBP is a wash because they walk at the same rate. I think right now that's basically what we can wright hanley down as, except adding in his 70 point ISO advantage. So I think we can basically say Hanley's skill set is roughly .320/.390/.535/.925. That's basically his career line atm.
September 2, 200915 yr I'd put Gaby as a C+ as a 1B. B- to MAYBE B if he can field 3b average. Average 1b hovers around the mid to midlow 800s. Average 3b hovers around mid to midhigh 700 OPS. But if he puts up a, say, 800 OPS, he's have to save 10 runs on defense to be average 1B. And I think 800 OPS is kinda optimistic. The only way I see it happening is if he breaks over a .150 ISO. He doesn't show good BABIP skills and we can basically pencil in his good BB% and K%. Though a .150 ISO might be low-balling him, .199 ISO last year and .183 ISO this year. 800 OPS basically banks on him putting up something like a .175 ISO which isn't that far fetched. And while we can't really say what his D at 3b is, we have to assume the fact that he's not there full time means it's basically just a prayer at this point. But if he's average D at 3b, that means he's average O at 3b with maybe above average O. I was going to say Pete and Cousins should be B- but I thought average corner OPS was around same as 3b but it's actually basically 800 OPS. However, both can play CF, and Cousins can play CF well, so I think that should be enough to rank them to B- (CF is mid to midlow 700 OPSs, which they should match offensively at least). Maybe even B for Cousins since it's both defense and base running for him. I mean, we have a cornerstone in CF, so I understand that for us their CF value doesn't mean anything, but prospect status should be based on the individuals value than the value he is to the team he's currently on. I think Gaby can pull off a close to .800 OPS at 1B/3B. I really wasn't looking at it compared to average production at a position, which would be a more exact analysis I agree, but more of a generally speaking "Gaby should become a starter." That BB/K is going to translate, and he's going to hit. The only question is whether it's going to be a .425 slug, or a .475 slug. Making him just an average kind of Cantu player, or more of Lyle Overbay/Sean Casey who can have a peak years here or there. I'm with you where I see the former, but I don't see anything wrong with a .270/.350/.425 Gaby, that rarely strikes out and racks up RBIs as a result batting 6th or 7th. It's someone you want to improve from, but that's a solid player. Petersen, no slugging. I can't get behind him as a starter even if he is very similar to Gaby with good contact rates. Sanchez being able to cover infield slots gets him over corner outfielders that do the same thing prospect wise for me. And Petersen really isn't a longterm CF to bump him up there even if he could do it. Cousins is still striking out a bit to much for me to bump him into the B range. The thing with him is, I find your defense/speed argument very persuasive, but that's more for his upside then what he is doing now. Cousins has the chance to be a B+ easily because of his tools, but I can't jump him over the solid BB/K "safe" prospects because he has ancillary production (even though it 100% counts). I love his slugging, he walks OK, but he needs to improve with the bat. I'm not to pumped with striking out 20-22% of the time in AA. Especially since he's a lefty and will start getting LOOGY'd more per level (2009 - .793 RHP / .672 LHP). He has a lot of work to do before we pencil him into RF longterm. I agree with more or less what you're saying, just not the ranks you gave them (except pete and to a lesser extent Cousins). A B prospect status is someone who's going to be, as you put it and I agree with, above average. And the chances of Gaby being above average are real slim. I'd also agree with the fact that a 3b is > corner OFer everything being equal, but there's the question of can Gaby be 3b, and for 1b I'd put corner OF > 1b. And at this point Gaby is basically a 1b, with both being basically equal on defense at their respective positions. So gaby is a bit better defensively, Pete gets a slight positional advantage, which would make them a wash, both C+ to me (Unless gaby proves he can handle 3b of coarse. But until he has, it hasn't). I can agree that Gaby is safer, is more ready, has seen better pitching from AAA, ect that he's > Pete but nowhere to the point of one being B and the other C+. Also, I think Cousins defense makes him safer than you make it out to be. Because even if he puts up something like .250/.300/.420/.720, the fact you can pencil him in for 10 runs on defense means you know you're going to get more value than what he does offensively. No that's not good for us because we have CF marked and accounted for and that's a lot lot less impressive coming from RF than CF but I don't think he should have his prospect status docked because of Maybin. I imagine defense is easily the safest tool a prospect can have. Baserunning you never really know lol, hitting has indicators, but a fly ball is a fly ball and a throw to second is a throw to second.
September 2, 200915 yr Author I hear you. I have no problem if you want Gaby a C+ for those reasons, but when it comes down to it, I still like him a little better for the "safe" factor. And if he can be even Cantu bad at 3B, that's a starter. Maybe in the 18-24 range of 3B starters overall, but still a starter. I also don't see how he can't be Loneyish at 1B. Cousins might not even hit a .720 OPS with those whiffs. Maybe they hold constant, but I'm just saying. At this point, it also doesn't look like he'll hit lefties at all. He could be a GREAT platoon player if he can .750+ versus RHP with the defense/speed, but I just don't see him as an everyday player from his current career progression. I really hope he proves me wrong and puts it together, because damn does he hit a lot of XBH, but when it comes down to it he needs a semi-significant bat improvement to make it to the bigs. But even projecting him as a CF, I still see a C+ right now acknowledging the lower level of offense. That's how much I'm concerned with his bat. He's a B- at absolute best, but I didn't make the rankings that exact. And ignoring the positional thing, assuming Morrison can flip between 1B/LF, who do you see starting in 2012 in a vacuum. Gaby, Cousins, Petersen? Those are the three likeliest candidates. And really, I'm taking Gaby if I have to pick just one of those even if Cousins has the most upside. Ideally you'd hope for the "eighth starting player platoon" to take advantage of RHP/LHP splits, when we need defense (Petco, Citifield, etc) and when we need offense (Citizens Bank, Great American, etc), but if we have to rely on just one, I like Gaby here.
September 3, 200915 yr Author Couldn't the Marlins just afford one of Nick Johnson/Cantu? Build your own team C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Dan Uggla $8,000,000 3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Jeremy Hermida $3,500,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Cody Ross $4,200,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B Brett Carroll $415,000 B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,600,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,600,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Scott Proctor $1,200,000 $53,895,000 C Brett Hayes $405,000 1B Nick Johnson $4,000,000 (total free agent guess, probably for 2 years minimum. Could be $1-2 million more per year) 1B Logan Morrison $410,000 2B Chris Coghlan $405,000 OF Ross Gload $2,600,000 (club option) OF Alejandro De Aza $405,000 OF Jai Miller $405,000 LHP Sean West $405,000 --- Figures will be updated at the end of the year, but you can scale Hermida up $250k, Cantu and Nolasco down $250k, if you are looking to JUST sneak under a certain payroll level. Everything else should be pretty close.
September 3, 200915 yr Author I think it's going to be something like this: C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Chris Coghlan $405,000 3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Brett Carroll $415,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Jeremy Hermida $3,750,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B “Veteran OF� $750,000 B “Veteran Bat� $750,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,250,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Sean West $405,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,600,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Tim Wood $405,000 RP Burke Badenhop $415,000 $39,625,000 This is trading Uggla, Ross(or Hermida doesn't matter), Amezaga, Anibal, and Lindstrom. Basic Lineup R Maybin L Coghlan R Hanley R Cantu R Ross L Baker R G. Sanchez R Carroll / S Bonifacio And then Morrison penciled in for the Summer.
September 3, 200915 yr Yo MarlinsLou, why the hell would we have Carroll starting in LF with Hermida in RF? I assume that is a typo on your part, as it should be the other way around in that scenario.
September 3, 200915 yr I would honestly rather have NJ for $4-6 million than Cantu for $6 million. And looking at that line-up, it should make a lot of contact, with the exceptions being possibly Maybin, Cody, and the Carroll/Bonifacio spot in the line-up (I'm keeping Lou's model and just switching out Cantu and Nick Johnson). Of course I suppose the FO would have to believe in Gaby's 3B defense enough to do this, and we don't know if they do/should. A drawback is that this forces Morrison into LF because NJ can't play anywhere else, whereas if Logan is mashing and/or Gaby is struggling worse than Carroll/Bonifacio, we could put Logan at 1B and shift Cantu over to 3B. It doesn't hurt to have as an option, but Gaby's numbers do project to him being at least a passable player with the bat. He may not excel but he seems like near-0% to OPS below .700. By mid-summer I'd want to see something like this: Coghlan L Johnson L Hanley R Ross R Logan L Maybin R Baker L Sanchez R Or some variation. Me likes.
September 3, 200915 yr I have to disagree with you, mystikol. I would rather have Cantu for 6 million than NJ. Cantu can net us two draft picks when he hits FA. I'm not so sure NJ can. Also, If Cantu leaves, who plays third base for the Marlins? Keeping him, we can plug Gaby Sanchez at first base, and if he struggles, Morrison can take over in June. If we keep NJ, third base will be open. And that will give the FO a chance to start Bonifacio again.
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