In seriousness, Nolasco is coming off a horrific season overall. To think Nolasco isn't guaranteed to be a top 30 pitcher isn't outlandish.

 

 

But to say he has the same question marks as Anibal? The guy with two major arm surgeries under his belt who hasn't thrown a full season ever and who is highly unlikely to ever fully recover from his labrum injury?

 

That is a different story. One is based on a previous performance inconsistencies (if you check Nolasco's statline from last year, he had tons of great starts, but other starts he just bombed), and the other has been phenomenal early on in his career, but suffered an injury most pitchers don't ever fully recover from.

 

Obviously Nolasco is a much safer bet to succeed than Anibal this year, I was responding more to the fact that everybody seems to consider him an automatic Cy Young candidate for next year and completely ignore last years numbers for him. People need to find a happy median with him (I'm expecting a high 3 ERA this year, which would be fantastic).

 

The problem with your argument is that Nolasco's peripherals were REALLY GOOD. His ERA was high, but it's because he ran into a ton of bad luck. This has been mentioned by other posters. There is also an article on ESPN.com about it. If Nolasco's peripherals are the same this year as they were last year and he is neither lucky nor unlucky, expect an ERA of about 3.50, which is quite good.

When in God's name did I say that Nolasco was an injury question? No... no not at all. "being in the same boat" is a completely different reference. Volstad is in the same boat. That boat would be the boat that players who can be great or can be upsetting ride on. Nolasco had quite a few bad games last year. If he cant stop that, he falls down the same road Anibal falls down. Everybody knows Anibal can be pretty good, or he could be pretty bad this season. Everybody knows Volstad's got the stuff but needs to put it together. How can you not see that with Ricky - who had a 5.00+ ERA last year? Regardless of "being unlucky" if he puts up those numbers again, which is entirely possible, he is gonna upset a lot of fans. I just dont understand how you can think that Nolasco is a sure thing if he DIDNT put up the numbers last year.

By the way Dr. B., just to be clear: I wasn't saying that your comment was rude; I was referring to the comment by the guy who called you an idiot.

When in God's name did I say that Nolasco was an injury question? No... no not at all. "being in the same boat" is a completely different reference. Volstad is in the same boat. That boat would be the boat that players who can be great or can be upsetting ride on. Nolasco had quite a few bad games last year. If he cant stop that, he falls down the same road Anibal falls down. Everybody knows Anibal can be pretty good, or he could be pretty bad this season. Everybody knows Volstad's got the stuff but needs to put it together. How can you not see that with Ricky - who had a 5.00+ ERA last year? Regardless of "being unlucky" if he puts up those numbers again, which is entirely possible, he is gonna upset a lot of fans. I just dont understand how you can think that Nolasco is a sure thing if he DIDNT put up the numbers last year.

 

 

 

Nolasco is a much better pitcher than Anibal Sanchez. He had a terrible start last year, that likely won't repeat itself, again. If people are being optimistic about Nolasco, they have good reason to be.

 

As for Anibal, he's actually the opposite. He was very fortunate his ERA ended up being under 4 last year.

 

Anything can happen as you said, but I'd very much expect the opposite this year, regarding their ERA's.

When in God's name did I say that Nolasco was an injury question? No... no not at all. "being in the same boat" is a completely different reference. Volstad is in the same boat. That boat would be the boat that players who can be great or can be upsetting ride on. Nolasco had quite a few bad games last year. If he cant stop that, he falls down the same road Anibal falls down. Everybody knows Anibal can be pretty good, or he could be pretty bad this season. Everybody knows Volstad's got the stuff but needs to put it together. How can you not see that with Ricky - who had a 5.00+ ERA last year? Regardless of "being unlucky" if he puts up those numbers again, which is entirely possible, he is gonna upset a lot of fans. I just dont understand how you can think that Nolasco is a sure thing if he DIDNT put up the numbers last year.

 

 

 

Nolasco is a much better pitcher than Anibal Sanchez. He had a terrible start last year, that likely won't repeat itself, again. If people are being optimistic about Nolasco, they have good reason to be.

 

As for Anibal, he's actually the opposite. He was very fortunate his ERA ended up being under 4 last year.

 

Anything can happen as you said, but I'd very much expect the opposite this year, regarding their ERA's.

 

Im well aware that Nolasco is much better. Im also aware of last season. Im aware Nolasco had the rocky start. I dont know why people wouldnt fear it again. Any pitcher with a short history in the majors and a season of rocky starts should be watched.

By the way Dr. B., just to be clear: I wasn't saying that your comment was rude; I was referring to the comment by the guy who called you an idiot.

 

 

I know lol semi-ass = semi-colon

When in God's name did I say that Nolasco was an injury question? No... no not at all. "being in the same boat" is a completely different reference. Volstad is in the same boat. That boat would be the boat that players who can be great or can be upsetting ride on. Nolasco had quite a few bad games last year. If he cant stop that, he falls down the same road Anibal falls down. Everybody knows Anibal can be pretty good, or he could be pretty bad this season. Everybody knows Volstad's got the stuff but needs to put it together. How can you not see that with Ricky - who had a 5.00+ ERA last year? Regardless of "being unlucky" if he puts up those numbers again, which is entirely possible, he is gonna upset a lot of fans. I just dont understand how you can think that Nolasco is a sure thing if he DIDNT put up the numbers last year.

 

 

 

Nolasco is a much better pitcher than Anibal Sanchez. He had a terrible start last year, that likely won't repeat itself, again. If people are being optimistic about Nolasco, they have good reason to be.

 

As for Anibal, he's actually the opposite. He was very fortunate his ERA ended up being under 4 last year.

 

Anything can happen as you said, but I'd very much expect the opposite this year, regarding their ERA's.

 

Im well aware that Nolasco is much better. Im also aware of last season. Im aware Nolasco had the rocky start. I dont know why people wouldnt fear it again. Any pitcher with a short history in the majors and a season of rocky starts should be watched.

 

 

The reason why I wouldn't worry about it is because he pitched like an ace the year before (2008), and last year after those first 9 starts which were horrible...he was sent down to the minors, and when he came back, he came back putting ace-like #'s again.

 

So to me, the 9 horrendus starts to begin the year last year was more an abberation, than anything else.

Exactly. You can get unlucky one year, but getting unlucky two years in a row is very very unlikely. It can happen, but the chances are very low. The article on ESPN.com showed that in the history of MLB pitchers with similar K/BB and K/9IP as Ricky had last year all performed incredibly well in terms of ERA. In fact, the worst ERA recorded among those pitchers was a 3.45. Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

Exactly. You can get unlucky one year, but getting unlucky two years in a row is very very unlikely. It can happen, but the chances are very low. The article on ESPN.com showed that in the history of MLB pitchers with similar K/BB and K/9IP as Ricky had last year all performed incredibly well in terms of ERA. In fact, the worst ERA recorded among those pitchers was a 3.45. Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

 

That's the same way I feel about my poker career right now....if I can just play through the variance :lol

Exactly. You can get unlucky one year, but getting unlucky two years in a row is very very unlikely. It can happen, but the chances are very low. The article on ESPN.com showed that in the history of MLB pitchers with similar K/BB and K/9IP as Ricky had last year all performed incredibly well in terms of ERA. In fact, the worst ERA recorded among those pitchers was a 3.45. Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

 

That's the same way I feel about my poker career right now....if I can just play through the variance :lol

:lol

Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

I have no idea why people always make excuses for Nolasco.

 

According to fangraphs his babip was .336 and his LD% was 21.8%.

 

The rule of thumb is to add .110 or .120 to the LD% to get the expected babip.

 

If the rule of thumb is right then he wasn't unlucky.

Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

I have no idea why people always make excuses for Nolasco.

 

According to fangraphs his babip was .336 and his LD% was 21.8%.

 

The rule of thumb is to add .110 or .120 to the LD% to get the expected babip.

 

If the rule of thumb is right then he wasn't unlucky.

 

Where are you getting this rule of thumb? I haven't found it anywhere.

 

Also, you are ignoring all of the other peripherals and just focusing on this one. As you probably know, ERA is a function of several variables (multiple regression).

Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

I have no idea why people always make excuses for Nolasco.

 

According to fangraphs his babip was .336 and his LD% was 21.8%.

 

The rule of thumb is to add .110 or .120 to the LD% to get the expected babip.

 

If the rule of thumb is right then he wasn't unlucky.

 

Where are you getting this rule of thumb? I haven't found it anywhere.

 

Also, you are ignoring all of the other peripherals and just focusing on this one. As you probably know, ERA is a function of several variables (multiple regression).

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/if-line-drives-could-speak/

 

and

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-the-best-babip-estimator/

Exactly. You can get unlucky one year, but getting unlucky two years in a row is very very unlikely. It can happen, but the chances are very low. The article on ESPN.com showed that in the history of MLB pitchers with similar K/BB and K/9IP as Ricky had last year all performed incredibly well in terms of ERA. In fact, the worst ERA recorded among those pitchers was a 3.45. Ricky's problem was that when a hitter put the ball in play their BA was something like .361, which is way higher than you would expect given the line-drive rate, etc.

 

In other words, Ricky's performance last year (ERA wise) was an EXTREME OUTLIER given his peripherals. If he can repeat his peripherals, the guy's going to be a Cy Young candidate.

 

 

I think it's a bit too early for Cy Young candidate. He'd have to have a flawless season, unlike last year of course and an even better season than the season before.

 

And I understand the statistics you are playing, outliers and whatnot. But it happened for a reason. He had an early season slump.

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

 

 

This just means they want the lefty in the middle of the rotation. Nothing more than that.

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

 

 

This just means they want the lefty in the middle of the rotation. Nothing more than that.

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

 

Exactly.

 

Means the Marlins will have one lefty in the majority of the series they face other teams. If Robertson stayed 5th, teams facing Righty Righty Righty on us just would've stacked the lineup with lefty hitters.

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

 

 

This just means they want the lefty in the middle of the rotation. Nothing more than that.

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

 

Exactly.

 

Means the Marlins will have one lefty in the majority of the series they face other teams. If Robertson stayed 5th, teams facing Righty Righty Righty on us just would've stacked the lineup with lefty hitters.

 

 

yeah i see what your saying.

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

 

 

This just means they want the lefty in the middle of the rotation. Nothing more than that.

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

 

Thats what I figured.

 

As for Anibal, I'm so sick of hearing about "when healthy" when people talk about him. Hes never healthy! I root for Anibal pretty hard because of all hes gone through with the injury and his sons death. However hes the starter I have the least amount of confidence in.

 

Ricky's stuff is so much better than Anibal's imo.

My biggest concern with Anibal Sanchez is, even beyond the injury(which worries me), is that even when 100% he has average stuff. He gets by alot on location and pitching to contact.

 

To go hand and hand with his injury, if his shoulder is even bugging him a little bit and he isnt able to locate his pitches, he will get batted around pretty easily, as he has the most hittable stuff on the staff IMO.

Robertson is now the 3rd starter, Anibal is now the 5th.

 

 

 

this could mean a few things. Anibal might be a little hurt and they dont really need a 5th starter right now. maybe just want the Mets to see a lefty. or maybe they just think Anibal isn't ready yet. Probably will be smashed for this but I feel more confident with Robertson than Anibal. No not just based off ST but Anibal was shaky last year and I am just not a fan of him

 

 

This just means they want the lefty in the middle of the rotation. Nothing more than that.

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

 

Exactly.

 

Means the Marlins will have one lefty in the majority of the series they face other teams. If Robertson stayed 5th, teams facing Righty Righty Righty on us just would've stacked the lineup with lefty hitters.

 

That only affects the first series....

 

Righty-righty-lefty-righty-rightyRighty-righty-lefty-righty-rightyRighty-righty-lefty-righty-rightyRighty-righty-lefty-righty-rightyRighty-righty-lefty-righty-rightyRighty-righty-lefty-righty-righty

 

No matter what they do with 1 leftie they are going to have to pitch the same amount of series without a leftie regardless of whether or not he's in the middle.

 

My guess is it's more to do with the schedule than the idea that you want a leftie in the middle of the rotation.

I assume the Cody is in/Robertson is third story has already been posted from the ones above me. I said this several days ago because more than anything else if you didn't move Robertson to third, mathematically it would be impossible to schedule him against Philadelphia, the very team they say they needed to acquire a lefty to use against. Glad you figured it out Fredi.

 

http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/topic/91748-rotation-announced/page__view__findpost__p__1914910

Didn't Nolasco also have a so-so start in 2008? Though, I believe he was in the bullpen for a bit then. So I will be very interested to see how he performs out of the gate, as that seems to be his Achilles's heel.

Yeah, Dr. Beinfest has the right idea. Either way, Robertson will always by 4 righties. I think I buy into what 03 said, that this setup allows them to slot Robertson against the Phillies, at least for the first time we play them. I am curious why we moved Anibal to 5th tho instead of just pushing both him and Volstad back a spot each.