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Josh Johnson 2nd Best Starter Over the Next Decade


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Saw this earlier on ESPN.com, where MLB executives were polled by Jayson Stark on who they thought would be the best pitchers in baseball over the next 10 years. #2 was Josh Johnson, behind Felix Hernandez and ahead of Ubaldo Jimenez. NOTE: Pitchers on this list had to be 26 or UNDER to qualify.

 

2. RHP Josh Johnson, Marlins (age 26)

 

Here's a shocker. The great Ubaldo didn't finish second in this race, either. Johnson actually outpolled him, 12 votes to 11, even though they're the same age.

 

So what's up with that? Well, the Josh Johnson Fan Club loves the chances of this 6-foot-7, 240-pound monster holding up to be "a horse for the next 10 years." Plus, quipped one panelist, "He's already had Tommy John [surgery], so he's got that out of the way."

 

But beyond the "absolutely overpowering weapons," our panelists kept extolling Johnson's "drive to be special" and his "great desire to be the best." He also has the aura of a star who's on the rise. Since this guy came back from his Tommy John surgery just before the 2008 All-Star break, he's 28-8 and has the best winning percentage (.778) among all big league starters not named Chris Carpenter (24-6, .800).

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings100604

 

 

Full list:

 

1. Felix Hernandez

2. Josh Johnson

3. Ubaldo Jimenez

4. David Price

5. Brett Anderson

6. Jon Lester

7. Zach Greinke (basically because he's with the Royals)

8. Clayton Kershaw

9 (tie). Ricky Romero, Tim Lincecum (execs are scared of his mechanics and believe it's going to derail his career down the road), Brian Matusz

 

Everyone else receiving votes: Tommy Hanson, Jaime Garcia, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, Rick Porcello, Yovani Gallardo, John Danks

 

Notables who received zero votes: Cole Hamels, Clay Buchholz

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Johnson just gives fans confidence of 220 innings of around 2.50-3 ERA ball every season for the forseeable future, and now he has the ability to match K's to IP.

 

From the "others" category I think Phil Hughes could be pretty special in the long run. Already showing this year how good he can be. While it is tougher pitching in the AL, especially the AL East, if considering wins as a measure of success (I know it is not always a good way to value a pitcher), Hughes is a guy I can see posting 16-20 wins annually for a long time in the Bronx.

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When are people going to get over Lince's mechanics? They're wonderful and he's been using them for like 20 years (not a typo, he's had the same mechanics since he was 5-years-old). These same guys wouldn't have touched Satchel Paige if he was around these days either.

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The only reason why I don't think Lincecum continues his dominance over the next decade is simply because of the number of pitches he throws every year. Forget the number of innings he chews up year in and year out. When you strike out the number of batters he does, that ultimately takes a toll on your arm. simply put, when you strike out more batters, it requires you to throw more pitches. Add that on top of the number of innings pitched, it takes a lot out of you.

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The only reason why I don't think Lincecum continues his dominance over the next decade is simply because of the number of pitches he throws every year. Forget the number of innings he chews up year in and year out. When you strike out the number of batters he does, that ultimately takes a toll on your arm. simply put, when you strike out more batters, it requires you to throw more pitches. Add that on top of the number of innings pitched, it takes a lot out of you.

 

 

Saying that he throws a lot of pitches just because he strikes out a lot of batters is very short sighted. There are a lot, lot of other things that go into it (i.e. because players make less contact, that means they foul off less pitches).

 

From that list, here's total amount of pitches and IP, their K/9, and their average pitch per IP

 

Felix Hernandez

Pitches: 3632

IP: 238.7

P/IP: 15.22

K/9: 8.18

 

Josh Johnson

Pitches: 3284

IP: 209

P/IP: 15.71

K/9: 8.22

 

Ubaldo Jimenez

Pitches: 3570

IP: 218

P/IP: 16.38

K/9: 8.17

 

David Price

Pitches: 2281

IP: 128.3

P/IP: 17.78

K/9: 7.15

 

Brett Anderson

Pitches: 2816

IP: 175.3

P/IP: 16.06

K/9: 7.70

 

Jon Lester

Pitches: 3404

IP: 203.3

P/IP: 16.74

K/9: 9.96

 

Zack Greinke

Pitches: 3477

IP: 229.3

P/IP: 15.16

K/9: 9.50

 

Clayton Kershaw

Pitches: 3030

IP: 171

P/IP: 17.72

K/9: 9.74

 

Ricky Romero

Pitches: 2989

IP: 178

P/IP: 16.79

K/9: 7.13

 

Tim Lincecum

Pitches: 3439

IP: 225.3

P/IP: 15.26

K/9: 10.42

 

So even though he has the highest K/9 of the list, only two pitchers averaged less pitches per inning last year than he did, and both barely beat him. Meanwhile, those with the lowest K/9 also were the ones throwing the most pitches

 

And three players threw more pitches than he did, but no complaints about them.

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say what u will about mechanics... i just think his small frame, mixed with the amount of innings and his mechanics are all going to catch up with him. jj is such a beast i cant see his body breaking down like lincecum

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Give me 100 Lincecums (his body type, his motion, etc.) and compare them to 100 JJ's and I would say the average JJ lasts a lot longer. Nevertheless, we're talking about a sample size of 1. In other words, it's hard to make a prediction about one individual player.

 

Also note that JJ has already broken down once before and Lincecum has not. That has to count for something.

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jesus man, it's not science. The more pitches you throw and the smaller the stature, the more likely he is of breaking down. Do me a favor, waste a couple more hours of your life and give me ten pitchers who had the same small stature as Lincecum and threw as many pitches as he did. now tell me how many of those pitchers were dominant for over 15 years? You'll be hard pressed to find a lot... lmao

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jesus man, it's not science. The more pitches you throw and the smaller the stature, the more likely he is of breaking down. Do me a favor, waste a couple more hours of your life and give me ten pitchers who had the same small stature as Lincecum and threw as many pitches as he did. now tell me how many of those pitchers were dominant for over 15 years? You'll be hard pressed to find a lot... lmao

 

 

Wait... are you sure that wouldn't be science?

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jesus man, it's not science. The more pitches you throw and the smaller the stature, the more likely he is of breaking down. Do me a favor, waste a couple more hours of your life and give me ten pitchers who had the same small stature as Lincecum and threw as many pitches as he did. now tell me how many of those pitchers were dominant for over 15 years? You'll be hard pressed to find a lot... lmao

 

 

There aren't many dominant pitchers for over 15 years in the first place. Only a handful of guys can claim that kind of career.

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jesus man, it's not science. The more pitches you throw and the smaller the stature, the more likely he is of breaking down. Do me a favor, waste a couple more hours of your life and give me ten pitchers who had the same small stature as Lincecum and threw as many pitches as he did. now tell me how many of those pitchers were dominant for over 15 years? You'll be hard pressed to find a lot... lmao

 

 

Wait... are you sure that wouldn't be science?

You beat me too it, it really really is science.

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jesus man, it's not science. The more pitches you throw and the smaller the stature, the more likely he is of breaking down. Do me a favor, waste a couple more hours of your life and give me ten pitchers who had the same small stature as Lincecum and threw as many pitches as he did. now tell me how many of those pitchers were dominant for over 15 years? You'll be hard pressed to find a lot... lmao

 

 

So, you say something you have no backing on then get mad when you get called out on it?

 

ok.

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Some people have noticed that Lincecum's average velocity per pitch has decreased by about 1 MPH per year. Originally he was throwing around 93 MPH average per pitch, but as of this year he's down to 89 MPH.

 

He's at 91 this year, but yeah, that might be looking something to think about. But on top if that it wasn't really a gradual drop, he was at 94 in 2008 and at 92 in 2009. It might be on purpose but I don't know.

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Some people have noticed that Lincecum's average velocity per pitch has decreased by about 1 MPH per year. Originally he was throwing around 93 MPH average per pitch, but as of this year he's down to 89 MPH.

 

He's at 91 this year, but yeah, that might be looking something to think about. But on top if that it wasn't really a gradual drop, he was at 94 in 2008 and at 92 in 2009. It might be on purpose but I don't know.

Baseballprospectus had an article on how he's throwing slower but with more movement.

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Here's an interesting question...instead of predicting the future; as of right now, (based on not only this year which has only been 2 months, but the past couple years, as well), how many pitchers would you take over Josh Johnson? Basically...name the best pitchers in baseball.

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Here's an interesting question...instead of predicting the future; as of right now, (based on not only this year which has only been 2 months, but the past couple years, as well), how many pitchers would you take over Josh Johnson? Basically...name the best pitchers in baseball.

 

 

For what time frame? A game, a season, 5 years, etc?

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Here's an interesting question...instead of predicting the future; as of right now, (based on not only this year which has only been 2 months, but the past couple years, as well), how many pitchers would you take over Josh Johnson? Basically...name the best pitchers in baseball.

 

 

For what time frame? A game, a season, 5 years, etc?

 

 

Just the best pitchers in baseball right now. Obviously this season has only been 2 months, so taking the past couple of years into account, as well. I guess since it's about Josh Johnson...best starting pitchers since 2008 (the year JJ came back from Tommy John).

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Here's an interesting question...instead of predicting the future; as of right now, (based on not only this year which has only been 2 months, but the past couple years, as well), how many pitchers would you take over Josh Johnson? Basically...name the best pitchers in baseball.

 

 

For what time frame? A game, a season, 5 years, etc?

 

 

Just the best pitchers in baseball right now. Obviously this season has only been 2 months, so taking the past couple of years into account, as well. I guess since it's about Josh Johnson...best starting pitchers since 2008 (the year JJ came back from Tommy John).

Chris Carpenter maybe?

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Where's that guy who was arguing that the Marlins made a huge mistake in extending Johnson's contract?

 

 

It was Marlins1; he wanted them to set aside that money for Gaby.

No, he wanted Stanton's arbitration buyout money to be set aside for Gaby.

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