Baseball Prospectus | Cold Takes: How The Marlins

[Erick]

Buck played in 2011 and salty was in 2013. So salty, if you consider him a FA of note.

 

It's not strong, but there are plenty of OF options. The team doesn't have to sit on its hands. They can make moves. 

 

Well, yeah.

 

Another reason why I'd like to deal Stanton for a package of young players & sign an OF'er.

 

 

[Erick]

Free agents I remember the team signing following the 2012 debacle are Salty, Morse, Chen, Ichiro, Polanco, Olivo, Pierre, Marmol, Wolf, Jones, McGehee, and Don Kelly.

 

The real notable names in that list to talk about are Salty, Morse, Chen, Ichiro, Jones, and McGehee. I'd say McGehee and Ichiro have been success stories for this franchise, signed for cheap and have been important contributors.

 

Salty, Morse, Chen, and Jones are guys we gave our real free agency money to and have seen fail spectacularly. Chen is too early to decide but the other three just didn't do their jobs.

 

To be completely honest, there aren't enough "real" free agent signings to form a real opinion of Hill's ability to sign free agents. I agreed with signing Salty, Morse, and Chen at the time that they joined. All were reasonable contracts that simply backfired. I don't remember too many if any egregiously bad signings that have hurt the team's cap long term yet (although Stanton will get there).

 

It's interesting how the Marlins "big" free agent signings the last four years would be considered middle of the line moves for just about every other franchise. Looking back it just shows even more how little resources Hill and the front office are given to work with. A few bad draft picks, which is what has happened, and suddenly the team has no depth because of an ownership unwilling to give his team a fair chance.

 

Forgot about Jones and Morse. Some more awful signings. A lot of negative WAR players on the list.

 

 

[Erick]

A lot of this Stanton discussion is dependent on what you think Marcell Ozuna is worth via trade. Quite frankly, I don't think he's worth much via trade especially after his second half struggle.

 

One thing is clear: We're not making the playoffs with our current pitching and lack of depth, with or without Stanton. I'm ready to try something new because this isn't going to work. 

 

While a lot of things recently went wrong, a lot of things also went right that allowed this team to overachieve for a good part of the year. We had a winning record with a negative run differential for quite a long time. It's not a very good team, and you can't continually count on everything going right to maybe sneak into a wildcard play-in game. Terrible way to run a franchise.

 

 

[Erick]

Stanton is a top OF entering his prime. You don't trade him for prospects especially when he is affordable and the team showed pretty good results this year. Also, how does stanton have value with a massive contract, injury history, and sucking for 1/2 of the season but ozuna with club control and the same 1/2 season suck but doesnt have value?

 

Because Stanton's upside is much better and a team with deep pockets might be willing to take a chance. 

 

Dim brought up a good example the other day of trading Stanton for a package of young players starting with Urias (who is big league ready). I wouldn't want strictly prospects; I would want a package of young players, some of whom would be ready to help as soon as next year.

 

Stanton's trade value is much higher than Ozuna's despite the injury history. The best thing we can acquire for Ozuna is a #3 starter, if that. What type of pitcher are we looking to get for Ozuna? Last offseason, we were talking about guys like Carrasco and Salazar; that would be lovely, but also had/has no chance of happening unless if the Indians GM is dumb -- and he's actually pretty good at his job, so...

 

 

[Erick]

Also, on top of the fact that Ozuna isn't nearly as talented as Stanton, he's also developing his own injury history. He suffered a serious injury in 2013, and fucked himself up last night pretty good, as well. It wouldn't surprise me if he's out for the remainder of the season. We're not getting much for him. 

 

 

[pollythewog]

They'll blame the injuries but I think the depth issue is obvious and they'll at least attempt to address that now that it's clearly something they can't ignore any longer.

 

it was clear before this season though is the thing. And they've actually made the situation worse with their dumb ass trades

 

 

[Admin]

The Marlins should have traded Ozuna in July.

 

 

[pollythewog]

The Marlins should have traded Ozuna in July.

 

They really should have traded Ramos considering what teams gave up for RPs. That was an obvious one. I think Erick was all about that one. Now you 2 kith and make up

 

 

[Admin]

They really should have traded Ramos considering what teams gave up for RPs. I think Erick was all about that one. Now you 2 kith and make up

 

Well that would have made the Rodney trade all the more silly. I'm not at all opposed to moving Ramos, though.

 

 

[Erick]

I did want Ramos traded at the deadline, but that's not something this team does.

 

 

[Erick]

I still want Ramos traded this offseason too.

 

 

[dim]

The Marlins should have traded Ozuna in July.

 

No team in major league baseball would've traded a guy playing like Ozuna was while they led the wild card. PR-wise that kind of move would be a nightmare.

 

Ozuna would net us a nice starting pitcher in the offseason regardless of his recent struggles. He's a 25 year old outfielder with 30 home run a season power who isn't even arbitration eligible until 2017. He's got great value in terms of the player he is.

 

The problem becomes the offseason market. There's a ton of outfielders available to get this free agency. Teams will go there first before trying to trade for Ozuna. If we even look to trade Ozuna, we won't be able to find teams even giving realistic offers until January at the earliest. 

 

 

[Erick]

Of course its higher, but you act as if ozuna has no value and will net nothing. Thats simply not true. Keeping stanton makes the team better than moving him for 1 mlb ready player and prospects for the future. Moving ozuna + for a sp, sign a sp, sign of, and sign depth is a move for 2017. That's not impossible to do. Trading stanton kills this teams offense. look at the offensive numbers before and after his injury. you think singles and lack of power are a problem now, imagine without stanton. 

 

I'm not sure what you have in mind, but it doesn't seem realistic. Any specific names in mind?

 

 

[Erick]

Trading Ozuna in July would've made no sense. These are the type of trades you make in the offseason, not during the season. Who was going to replace Ozuna in the OF? Ichiro?

 

 

[Erick]

No team in major league baseball would've traded a guy playing like Ozuna was while they led the wild card. PR-wise that kind of move would be a nightmare.

 

Ozuna would net us a nice starting pitcher in the offseason regardless of his recent struggles. He's a 25 year old outfielder with 30 home run a season power who isn't even arbitration eligible until 2017. He's got great value in terms of the player he is.

 

The problem becomes the offseason market. There's a ton of outfielders available to get this free agency. Teams will go there first before trying to trade for Ozuna. If we even look to trade Ozuna, we won't be able to find teams even giving realistic offers until January at the earliest. 

 

Exactly. I agree 100%.

 

Edit: Not 100% because I don't agree with the 2nd paragraph actually. I don't know if he has great trade value. I don't think he does, and the point about the offseason market is a good one. 

 

 

[pollythewog]

I still want Ramos traded this offseason too.

 

not sure he worth anything. check his stats lately?  pretty replacement level

 

 

[dim]

It's fine the Marlins haven't traded Ramos or Ozuna yet. The team has spent the entire season in a playoff race and had no reason to ship off two players who play important roles in that. The problem with a message board atmosphere is that everybody here is anxious to make moves all the time. Neither of those guys are even being considered to be traded until the playoffs end. 

 

I don't even see how we killed Ramos' or Ozuna's value. Both of those guys, despite recent struggles, have had really solid seasons that have only improved their value compared to where they were at the end of last season. If we want to, we could definitely fill some empty spaces in our farm system and potentially our major league squad by offering these guys in trades. 

 

I listed it before but the players the team should look to placing in offers this offseason are Ozuna, Ramos, Bour, Dietrich, and Koehler. Ozuna/Ramos are pieces to rebuild the major league squad while Bour/Dietrich/Koehler would have to be guys to help fill back up the farm. The only problem with this is doing any of that would be admitting that their are flaws with the current construct of the team and breaking it up a bit. I don't consider getting rid of these guys a fire sale or giving up on next season at all. I view it as 5 guys who are either inconsistent, playing above value, or would net us something valuable from other teams. 

 

I'm repeating myself from other threads but when I'm building the team next season, the guys I'm looking to build around are

 

1. Lineup wise (Yelich, Stanton, Gordon, Realmuto, Prado). 

 

2. SP wise (Fernandez, Conley, Chen).

 

3. Bullpen wise (Everybody since I like our major league guys and have ok farm depth at this position).

 

Anybody else I feel is expendable in one way or another. I'm worried that the team will try David Phelps in the rotation to start next season when he's perfect for the 8th inning role. 

 

There's definitely a strategy that can make this team competitive. But the depth has to be addressed. It's not a one year fix in that regard. But I think there are ways to begin improving the depth while keeping the major league team competitive in 2017.

 

 

[Erick]

Sign Trumbo to 1b, sign fowler/desmond OF, trade ozuna and ramos for best value sp, sign hellickson. Thats not a bad team at all. 

 

I am not a fan of that idea. I don't want Trumbo and I don't want Desmond. A couple more guys coming off career years seeking bloated contracts that would probably backfire here. And Loria isn't going to spend nearly that much money anyway. There's also the issue that not every (or any) top free agent is going to want to sign here. We are not exactly the top destination. 

 

I actually hate the Trumbo to 1B idea. That would be really terrible. 

 

 

[Erick]

not sure he worth anything. check his stats lately?  pretty replacement level

 

Still a high K reliever with closing experience. Once the top 2-3 closers sign in the offseason, he should have trade value. And even if his trade value isn't great, I wouldn't want to pay him in the near future anyway so I'd take whatever assets I can get. Our bullpen depth should be fine moving forward.

 

 

[dim]

Sign Trumbo to 1b, sign fowler/desmond OF, trade ozuna and ramos for best value sp, sign hellickson. Thats not a bad team at all. 

 

Trumbo is a classic guy who will be overpaid, regress and will not provide nearly as much as value as people believe. I'm totally against getting him when his value is clearly higher than it'll ever be.

 

Fowler is interesting, but again I think he's out of the team's price range. We're also getting basically as much value from Ozuna as we would be getting from Fowler, so trading Ozuna (who isn't even arbitration eligible yet) and replacing him with a $10 million+ a year player is just a bad move.

 

Hellickson is a guy who was putting up mid 4 and high 5 ERA's the last three years before an ok season now. Like every free agent, he'll be overpaid and is more likely to regress to what he was than remain a low end #3 starter. In terms of gambles this team needs to make, he is likely not the right one.

 

All four of these guys signing would increase payroll by an average of $30 million to $40 million all while improving the team by maybe a single win or two. I like the ideas, but I don't see this as an improving the team kind of offseason.

 

 

[Erick]

No you don't. You just spent multiple posts trying to convince me Ozuna has no value lol. But suddenly you agree that it will difficult to trade ozuna but it will be oh so easy to trade stanton for a kings ransom. Stanton plays OF too, you know. 

 

But Stanton is better than any OF on the market. Ozuna isn't. Stanton's trade value is just fine.

 

 

[Erick]

Desmond has done this 3 other seasons. Trumbo at 1B would be the gamble move that can seriously pay off. Help from Hill and him not playing the OF should improve his defense significantly. I'm OK with finding a real platoon partner for bour, but this team doesn't believe in platoons so. 

 

I could live with Desmond (even though realistically Loria's not paying him).

 

The Trumbo move seems very Marlins and one that could seriously backfire. The guy is a one-dimensional player having a career year playing half his games in a hitter's park. And he's really not that good at 1B either. I'm fine with Bour/Scruggs next year, and I bet, pending health, that they won't be much worse than Trumbo.

 

 

[Erick]

Remember, just one offseason ago, Mark Trumbo was traded for Steve Clevenger (who?).

 

Trumbo is the kind of player you buy low on and hope he hits HR's because it's all he does. He's not the guy you invest in long-term. He could easily revert back to a 25-30 HR guy and be a negative WAR player because he's so terrible at everything else. 

 

 

[Erick]

What would our payroll be? For all the talk of how unrealistic trading Stanton would be, this seems more unrealistic. Loria isn't increasing payroll at this rate.

 

Trumbo, Fowler, and Hellickson are all going to get nice contracts this offseason. I would guess Trumbo's deal is going to be rather absurd actually.

 

 

[Erick]

And, quite frankly, I'm not sure that those moves improve the team that much. If that's what the offseason turned out to be, it would project as a .500 team with a terrible future, IMO. The worst of both worlds.