The Case to Trade Stanton Now

[RIP16]

I am a huge Stanton fan, but I think one must seriously consider trading him now while his trade value is still very high. Is this compelling? Would you consider it?

 

1) Stanton is still paid very little (relative to his contract). His value from this perspective will not get any higher.

 

2) Stanton is 26 years old and constantly injured. Imagine when he hits 30, injuries will plague him more and more often and earlier and earlier in the seasons as time as goes by. Maybe we should be happy to see Stanton play 1/2 to 3/4 of a year every year. This might be his healthy years.

 

3) Stanton is a poor outfielder. Let's be honest. The announcers laud Stanton and his cornerback football speed, but he is slow and lumbering and clumsy in the outfield. The eye test rules like Charlie Francis said. He gives up several bases on defense for every time he throws a guy out or prevents a tag up with his rocket arm. He is best suited as a DH for defensive reasons but mostly due to injury prevention.

 

4) Stanton is a poor hitter. Of course he is an elite home run hitter. But as a situational hitter, he is in AA compared to the likes of Miguel Cabrera (who deserved the contract more than Stanton). He strikes out in key situations and is in general a poor eye at the plate. I cannot count on Stanton when it counts, I can count on Dietrich more (he is severely underrated in my eyes).

 

This is not a rant against Stanton. Every year is similar (poor average, sloppy outfield, strikeouts, streaky, then injured). His value will not get higher in the future (unless he has a full monster year). There is no chance they keep him when his contract begins to skyrocket anyways. They need pitching desperately. Even with him in the lineup, the offense isn't scoring enough.

 

Should the Marlins trade Big G now?

 

 

[Michael]

No trade clause, he'd have to waive it.

 

 

[sdg210]

I am a huge Stanton fan, but I think one must seriously consider trading him now while his trade value is still very high. Is this compelling? Would you consider it?

1) Stanton is still paid very little (relative to his contract). His value from this perspective will not get any higher.

2) Stanton is 26 years old and constantly injured. Imagine when he hits 30, injuries will plague him more and more often and earlier and earlier in the seasons as time as goes by. Maybe we should be happy to see Stanton play 1/2 to 3/4 of a year every year. This might be his healthy years.

3) Stanton is a poor outfielder. Let's be honest. The announcers laud Stanton and his cornerback football speed, but he is slow and lumbering and clumsy in the outfield. The eye test rules like Charlie Francis said. He gives up several bases on defense for every time he throws a guy out or prevents a tag up with his rocket arm. He is best suited as a DH for defensive reasons but mostly due to injury prevention.

4) Stanton is a poor hitter. Of course he is an elite home run hitter. But as a situational hitter, he is in AA compared to the likes of Miguel Cabrera (who deserved the contract more than Stanton). He strikes out in key situations and is in general a poor eye at the plate. I cannot count on Stanton when it counts, I can count on Dietrich more (he is severely underrated in my eyes).

This is not a rant against Stanton. Every year is similar (poor average, sloppy outfield, strikeouts, streaky, then injured). His value will not get higher in the future (unless he has a full monster year). There is no chance they keep him when his contract begins to skyrocket anyways. They need pitching desperately. Even with him in the lineup, the offense isn't scoring enough.

Should the Marlins trade Big G now?

This is a non starter. He has a NTC.

 

 

 

 

[RIP16]

No trade clause, he'd have to waive it.

 

Thank you, I do remember him requiring this (for obvious Marlins history reasons). I think he would waive it if he can hand pick his destination. I don't imagine him not waiving it if he can go back to LA.

 

 

[Admin]

He'd likely ask for compensation to waive it, maybe an acceleration of the opt-out clause to after the 2017 season or something and then it'd make it incredibly difficult to get a good package for him.

 

 

[dim]

Lets even pretend for a second that Stanton wants out of Miami and will waive his no-trade clause.

 

1) Stanton is going to make $14.5 million next season, so he's not making "break the bank" money yet. Trading him now would be both trading him at a low value and giving up a year of reasonable money.

 

2) While it has been said before, a large portion of Stanton's injuries in his career have been to different body parts or freak injuries. He couldn't finish 2014 because he was hit in the face with a baseball. In 2015 he was hit by a pitch in the hand and broke it. This year he had that groin injury when running. The issues prior to 2014 were to his hamstring, shoulder, knee, and quad. If you want to call him a complete mess who'll injure anything then its fine. But I'd be far more worried long-term if it was a singular injury that was recurring constantly. Many of the injuries have just been a product of terrible luck. 

 

3) In regards to Stanton's defense, you would be correct when accounting for the 2016 season. When ranking players by specific defensive metrics, Stanton ranked the 104th best defensive outfielder among players with a certain amount of innings (he did not finish the season as a qualified player). But in 2015 Stanton was ranked 19th in UZR (which factors things such as arm strength, range, errors, etc...) among all outfielders in baseball. That means that while Stanton failed the eye test, he was able to make a great deal of plays look easy and effortless that lesser players wouldn't have made, saving us double digit runs over the course of the season. Stanton has been inconsistent defensively in his career, playing like a top 20 defensive outfielder in 2010, 2012, and 2015, average in 2011/2014, and poor in 2013/2016. There isn't enough consistency to definitively say what kind of defender Stanton is, but when accounting for everything it is safe to say he is average to very slightly above average. 

 

4) Stanton is not a poor hitter. He is a streaky hitter and fans who don't bother to look into the team tend to mistake the two. Stanton has consistently led the majors in isolated power and has a career OBP that mirrors that of Christian Yelich, a player that everybody universally agrees is a fantastic hitter. Before 2016, Stanton had OPS' of .950 and .952, which would put him alongside Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson this season as one of the top 7 hitters in baseball. 

 

Stanton is the same hitter he was in the minors (if not vastly improved in many areas). He's inconsistent and will go through spouts where he strikes out a ton and hits no home runs over the course of a month. And then there'll be moments where he looks like the greatest hitter alive. This season saw more of the former than the latter. He's still a 26 year old player with multiple .900+ OPS seasons and 208 home runs already in the bank. There isn't a single player in the league that can provide the peaks that Stanton's potential offers (and highs that we've seen previously).

 

You are completely wrong in your entire assessment of Stanton as a player. I've followed Stanton's career since he was in Greensboro and I believe I have a fair grasp on the player he is. He's improved his patience, he's maintained the power, and he has the respect of the entire league with his presence alone. He showed in the wake of tragedy that he is a team leader and is still two years shy of when most players even hit their peak. 

 

Is he going to be overpaid when his contract kicks up to $25 million in 2018? Possibly. Is there a chance that Jeffery Loria or whoever the owner is trades him in a few years to Los Angeles or New York to rid themselves of his contract and rebuild a dead farm? Again, possibly. 

 

But Stanton is a generational player. And your sentiment is one that many in the Marlins fanbase has grown to have, and it is 100% false. Frankly, I'm tired of seeing people throwing shade at players whenever anything goes the slightest bit wrong. The smart thing to do, and one I personally believe Miami is going to do, is build around Stanton and play around both his strengths and weaknesses rather than harping on them.

 

 

[dim]

Apologies for the big wall of text, but some information needed to be brought to this discussion. There's been a ton of false opinions thrown around so long in 2016 that they've been reinterpreted as fact. 

 

Oh, and I laughed at "his value will never be higher". Bull...shit. I don't care if he's making $30 million a year. The season Stanton stays healthy and hits 50 home runs (which with 80 grade power it's only a matter of when) somebody will throw their entire farm to acquire him costs notwithstanding. Stanton's value only tanks if he either remains injury prone or puts up continuous poor seasons while getting paid high. Right now he's on 1 poor season in a row. 

 

 

[Admin]

Apologies for the big wall of text, but some information needed to be brought to this discussion

 

Never apologize for that. I personally really appreciate that you do that. The effort you put into your posts is helpful. Quality over quantity always.

 

 

[Admin]

Too many tl;dr posts in this thread, but trading Stanton at this point would be the wrong move.

 

 

[RIP16]

Lets even pretend for a second that Stanton wants out of Miami and will waive his no-trade clause.

 

1) Stanton is going to make $14.5 million next season, so he's not making "break the bank" money yet. Trading him now would be both trading him at a low value and giving up a year of reasonable money.

 

2) While it has been said before, a large portion of Stanton's injuries in his career have been to different body parts or freak injuries. He couldn't finish 2014 because he was hit in the face with a baseball. In 2015 he was hit by a pitch in the hand and broke it. This year he had that groin injury when running. The issues prior to 2014 were to his hamstring, shoulder, knee, and quad. If you want to call him a complete mess who'll injure anything then its fine. But I'd be far more worried long-term if it was a singular injury that was recurring constantly. Many of the injuries have just been a product of terrible luck. 

 

3) In regards to Stanton's defense, you would be correct when accounting for the 2016 season. When ranking players by specific defensive metrics, Stanton ranked the 104th best defensive outfielder among players with a certain amount of innings (he did not finish the season as a qualified player). But in 2015 Stanton was ranked 19th in UZR (which factors things such as arm strength, range, errors, etc...) among all outfielders in baseball. That means that while Stanton failed the eye test, he was able to make a great deal of plays look easy and effortless that lesser players wouldn't have made, saving us double digit runs over the course of the season. Stanton has been inconsistent defensively in his career, playing like a top 20 defensive outfielder in 2010, 2012, and 2015, average in 2011/2014, and poor in 2013/2016. There isn't enough consistency to definitively say what kind of defender Stanton is, but when accounting for everything it is safe to say he is average to very slightly above average. 

 

4) Stanton is not a poor hitter. He is a streaky hitter and fans who don't bother to look into the team tend to mistake the two. Stanton has consistently led the majors in isolated power and has a career OBP that mirrors that of Christian Yelich, a player that everybody universally agrees is a fantastic hitter. Before 2016, Stanton had OPS' of .950 and .952, which would put him alongside Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson this season as one of the top 7 hitters in baseball. 

 

Stanton is the same hitter he was in the minors (if not vastly improved in many areas). He's inconsistent and will go through spouts where he strikes out a ton and hits no home runs over the course of a month. And then there'll be moments where he looks like the greatest hitter alive. This season saw more of the former than the latter. He's still a 26 year old player with multiple .900+ OPS seasons and 208 home runs already in the bank. There isn't a single player in the league that can provide the peaks that Stanton's potential offers (and highs that we've seen previously).

 

You are completely wrong in your entire assessment of Stanton as a player. I've followed Stanton's career since he was in Greensboro and I believe I have a fair grasp on the player he is. He's improved his patience, he's maintained the power, and he has the respect of the entire league with his presence alone. He showed in the wake of tragedy that he is a team leader and is still two years shy of when most players even hit their peak. 

 

Is he going to be overpaid when his contract kicks up to $25 million in 2018? Possibly. Is there a chance that Jeffery Loria or whoever the owner is trades him in a few years to Los Angeles or New York to rid themselves of his contract and rebuild a dead farm? Again, possibly. 

 

But Stanton is a generational player. And your sentiment is one that many in the Marlins fanbase has grown to have, and it is 100% false. Frankly, I'm tired of seeing people throwing shade at players whenever anything goes the slightest bit wrong. The smart thing to do, and one I personally believe Miami is going to do, is build around Stanton and play around both his strengths and weaknesses rather than harping on them.

 

 

 

Apologies for the big wall of text, but some information needed to be brought to this discussion. There's been a ton of false opinions thrown around so long in 2016 that they've been reinterpreted as fact. 

 

Oh, and I laughed at "his value will never be higher". Bull...shit. I don't care if he's making $30 million a year. The season Stanton stays healthy and hits 50 home runs (which with 80 grade power it's only a matter of when) somebody will throw their entire farm to acquire him costs notwithstanding. Stanton's value only tanks if he either remains injury prone or puts up continuous poor seasons while getting paid high. Right now he's on 1 poor season in a row. 

 

I wasn't ranting against Stanton. And I am not meaning to throw shade at Stanton. I love the guy as a player and personally. I did make it seem harsh, I apologize for using words like "poor" to describe his hitting. I was not meaning to criticize him. I meant to challenge that with the need for pitching, is it worth it with all the "negatives". I apologize for this word, I don't know other words to use besides something like "areas that cheaper players could fill better".

 

 

[dim]

It's all ok, no need to apologize, I am not offended so don't worry. My goal is always to work on just thinking before writing and always keeping yourself informed and becoming better as a fan. You didn't do anything off, and my point was directed more at the year of the fanbase souring on Stanton and creating false narratives about him.

 

 

[dim]

In terms of trades, the obvious has been stated with the no trade clause. However, as I said with Jose before the tragedy, I would only be willing to part with them if we were able to loot a team's farm system. Back at the start of this season that would've been the Dodgers and Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, and possibly two more lower ranked players. That kind of deal would've needed to be the return for either Stanton or Fernandez. The other teams with farm systems that would enable a trade like that to happen and would make sense to trade for Stanton or Fernandez would've been the Yankees (Judge, Sanchez, Austin, etc...) and maybe the Astros (Bregman, Fisher, Reed). 

 

Unfortunately, many of these players have made the majors and done great things, making their value far higher than they were back then. If the team is to look towards trading Stanton, it'll need to wait and see how other team's prospects develop as well as how Stanton bounces back from a turbulent 2016. This offseason easily is not the right time.

 

 

[RIP16]

It's all ok, no need to apologize, I am not offended so don't worry. My goal is always to work on just thinking before writing and always keeping yourself informed and becoming better as a fan. You didn't do anything off, and my point was directed more at the year of the fanbase souring on Stanton and creating false narratives about him.

 

You are ok too. I have been watching the Marlins since "in the win column" on WAMI when I was in elementary school and I do tend to judge and assess players on emotion (unfortunately). I guess watching UM losing to FSU is giving me a lot of frustration too. 

 

No need to apologize either on all sides, it's all cool...

 

....

 

....

 

But Stanton does swing at a lot of pitches in the dirt still.

 

 

[dim]

He did that in A ball too though. It's one of those situations that you accept it as a flaw and work on improving in areas that you can. He excels so much in so many things that I'll overlook the inconsistency.

 

 

[TaiwanMarlins]

Maybe think one thing first,how many people would show up in the ballpark without Jose and G.

 

 

[SilverBullet]

Maybe think one thing first,how many people would show up in the ballpark without Jose and G.

The same amount that show up already

[TaiwanMarlins]

The same amount that show up already

 

Afraid would be much less.

 

 

[SilverBullet]

Afraid would be much less.

Doubt it. It's already low. In all the years at marlins park I've noticed consistency in the attendance no matter if the team was doing well or doing poorly or losing 100 games or holding a wild card spot or if Ichiro was nearing 3000 or if stanton was healthy or if Jose was pitching. Same crap every time with the exception of the Jose memorial game and every Opening Day. I'm not even ragging or making a joke about the attendance I'm just stating what seems to be the truth at least to my eyes. There is a fan base and a market here for baseball but it will only consistently go out to the games either during the actual playoffs or if the team magically puts together a season like the Cubs where they're in a commanding division lead for the majority of the season. Not having Stanton and Jose on the team wouldn't decrease attendance as much as you would think.

[Admin]

Marlins won't be a go-to destination until playoff time.

 

 

[SilverBullet]

Marlins won't be a go-to destination until playoff time.

As I said the only exception would be a 100+ win season because people would feel like they are guaranteed to see a win when they go. Not saying it'd be sold out every night but I often get the vibe from casual fans of "I don't hate the Marlins and I like the ballpark but I don't bother going because they lose whenever I go."

[RIP16]

TV ratings might go down slightly, but attendance won't change. South Florida is an ADD town, most people here would rather do something else (party, bowling, movies) than sit through a 3 hour baseball game. At home, the food is cheaper, the view is good, and it's free, so fans prefer to watch at home. The team used the excuse of the weather ruining attendance in the old stadium but that's bull. Heck, even with Lebron, Heat fans showed up late to games and left early when the "game is over". Even in the playoffs. The ADD atmosphere is also influenced by "place to be" vibes, and Marlins Park will never be the "place to be" except during a championship run deep into the playoffs. Being stuck in a baseball stadium for 3 hours feels more of a burden to baseball fans in South Florida, especially with so many other options including watching the game on TV.

 

 

[hovertical]

Marlins won't be a go-to destination until playoff time.

 

or until they can string together 3 seasons or so of successful baseball (90 wins or so) and be regular players in FA each year - i.e. an ownership change

 

 

[Admin]

I think attendance could still go lower if Stanton is gone and the team sucks. I could see them bottoming out around 18,000 per game.

 

 

[SilverBullet]

It's funny or maybe it isn't funny how 18-20,000 people is a shit load of people yet it's laughable how low our attendance generally is. Like we can have 20,000 people in the crowd and the media can easily say the place was pretty much empty. That's crazy. Just an observation.

 

 

[RIP16]

It's funny or maybe it isn't funny how 18-20,000 people is a shit load of people yet it's laughable how low our attendance generally is. Like we can have 20,000 people in the crowd and the media can easily say the place was pretty much empty. That's crazy. Just an observation.

 

Well, it's all relative. 20,000 people in any one place is generally a massive concentration of human life. But in a brand new baseball park when the average attendance league wide is say 35k is not very many people.

 

Edit: Looked up average attendance. Marlins at 21k (27th/30) and league wide is 30k. So, 27/30 is relatively "empty".