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Part IV Project Wolverine: Jeter proves he hasnt gone to Business 101


Das Texan
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“Ticket sales will collapse even more under this plan. Nobody [in his group] really looked at this. It shows lack of business acumen. You will still need to rebuild with top players at some point and they will be more expensive and harder to bring to Miami, especially under this new management team and the reputation” established during cost-cutting.

 

Which is also why you buyout Realmuto and don't trade Yelich. You have two top players to rebuild with.

 

 

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Well that's nonsense if so, or hysteria as the good man @MarlinsLou pointed out. The "best case scenario" would be the prospects all exceeding expectations which is unlikely but in theory possible under a "best case scenario" They'd absolutely contend under those conditions.

 

This has never happened in the history of baseball, where all the prospects you trade for make it and some even exceed expecations, so why would it all of a sudden happen now.

 

Pie in the sky.  Much like Jeter's plans.

 

 

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This has never happened in the history of baseball, where all the prospects you trade for make it and some even exceed expecations, so why would it all of a sudden happen now.

 

Pie in the sky.  Much like Jeter's plans.

 

The problem is, no one has argued or debated that. You're just upset with what has happened and projecting that frustration mindset to a position that everything is on fire.

 

They currently have:

 

SP - Alcantara, Guzman, Rogers, Garret, Neidert, M. Gonzalez, D. Peters, Gallen, Kolek, and do me a solid of saying they take a college SP with their 1st/2nd pick in the 2018 draft, and get 2 more solid ones from trading Straily/Bour/Barraclough/Castro/etc. Give them a 75% flameout on those dozen arms (a far cry from "all the prospects"), and you have 3/5ths your rotation in 2020/2021 and plenty of payroll to go get a top end SP. What if it is 50%? You're doing great at that point. Again, this may not be your 1/2 starters, but to have 3/5ths your rotation competently club controlled at their projections as 3/4s and not expecting them to "exceed" them, is a major win. To note, I don't think there is much debate they will have a bullpen moving forward with all the arms they have.

 

Position players are a bigger issue as they do need Anderson and Sierra (or whoever else who is even fringier like B. Lee, Cooper, Nelson, etc.) to work out to at least fill out half the field with Yelich/Realmuto, but position players are safer prospects (typically). Who knows what happens, plus they will probably get some additional real talent back from Straily/Bour/Barraclough/Castro/etc. Remember, they got Bour and Uggla for nothing too. It happens. If they can get 2-3 normal unspectacular starting players (again, not exceeding any expectations here) out of what they got/trade assets, that's pretty good to match with Yelich, Realmuto, 10+ pitchers, and a low payroll come 2020.

 

As I said, if the prospects overall stink in the summer of 2019, you can trade Yelich and Realmuto then and circle 2023 on your calendar.

 

But right now, you cannot definitively say all of these prospects aren't going to work out. That is hysterical as saying all of these prospects will work out. Which no one is.

 

 

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For Jeter, there was one interesting alternative to immediate payroll slashing: Begin the 2018 with most of the 2017 roster, but make clear to South Florida fans and potential sponsors that attendance and sponsorship revenue needed to rise significantly and immediately for the model to be sustained. Jeter then could have slashed payroll before the July trade deadline if those two key potential revenue sources did not increase by next summer. There’s no indication that he seriously considered this approach.

 

What would have been the point of this?

 

Yes they need attendance and revenue to increase but keeping the 2017 team intact wasn't gonna do that. Fans didn't care in 2017 with a record high payroll, the stolen base champ, a 60 hr chase happening, the NL MVP, and the All Star Game and everything that brings so why does anyone think they would have cared in 2018? 

 

 

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But right now, you cannot definitively say all of these prospects aren't going to work out. That is hysterical as saying all of these prospects will work out. Which no one is.

 

The marlins got 2, perhaps 3, 50 FV prospects back from all those trades. They couldn't even net on 55 FV.  Will they even have a top 75 prospect from this group? I know rankings aren't everything, but rankings are a lot better now than they were even a few years ago. It's going to take extreme luck to get even 1 above avg player out of these guys. Astros/Cubs were constantly drafting/trading for 55/60 FV prospects.

 

 

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Cubs and Astros succeeded because they hit big time on their top draft picks after unloading at best what was mediocre talent. Neither relied on returns from fire sale trading. The Marlins have unloaded top line talent (and apparently will continue to do so) for B grade returns and a spin on the roulette wheel while crushing their fan base, diminishing their brand and making themselves the continuing laughing stock of baseball, all in service to a pie in the sky, foolishly derived business plan with laughable assumptions that would flunk out from any reputable business school any fool submitting it.   

 

 

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What would have been the point of this?

 

Yes they need attendance and revenue to increase but keeping the 2017 team intact wasn't gonna do that. Fans didn't care in 2017 with a record high payroll, the stolen base champ, a 60 hr chase happening, the NL MVP, and the All Star Game and everything that brings so why does anyone think they would have cared in 2018? 

 

They need attendance and fan interest to get this Big TV contract that is a big part of the Jeter plan.  Why would FS Florida, or any other sports network bid on this contract at HUGE dollars?  

 

 

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They need attendance and fan interest to get this Big TV contract that is a big part of the Jeter plan.  Why would FS Florida, or any other sports network bid on this contract at HUGE dollars?  

 

Yes, but the attendance and fan interest wasn't coming in 2018. There was nothing that Jeter and Sherman could have done with the 2017 team that would have increased attendance and interest in the 2018 team. 

 

 

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Yes, but the attendance and fan interest wasn't coming in 2018. There was nothing that Jeter and Sherman could have done with the 2017 team that would have increased attendance and interest in the 2018 team. 

 

And this plan sure as fuck isnt doing it.  

 

Let me ask you this:  

 

Short term in an effort to attract at big TV contract which plan had more chance of success:

 

-Keep 2017 team in tact, try to push the new ownership fact, add a piece to the team, increase interest through marketing and promotion (and lower ticket prices); which may cause you to lose some money in 2018 (but you make much more if this succeeds)

 

- The plan they are doing.

 

question

 

 

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The marlins got 2, perhaps 3, 50 FV prospects back from all those trades. They couldn't even net on 55 FV.  Will they even have a top 75 prospect from this group? I know rankings aren't everything, but rankings are a lot better now than they were even a few years ago. It's going to take extreme luck to get even 1 above avg player out of these guys. Astros/Cubs were constantly drafting/trading for 55/60 FV prospects.

 

I don't really care about the rankings, but sure it's better to have more guys higher ranked than not. Realmuto got listed in BA once at #76 and is a top 50 position player in baseball probably. 

 

I would look at it from the perspective that if the goal is to acquire 6-8 really good players to be the core of your contending team, you have surefire two of them in their prime (Yelich, Realmuto), you have 4+ pitchers who could join them in 2-3 years, likely in a best case scenario 1-2 of them (Alcantara, Guzman, Rogers, Garret), absolutely no payroll on the books in 20/21 because you're going to be very club controlled with the back half of your staff, bullpen, and a few lower end starting players/bench to hopefully be able to sign 2+ of them, and you will have some draft capital in 18/19 and maybe you hit one there.

 

They are going to have to catch some breaks, I am just saying. I think they can wait until next summer to trade Yelich and Realmuto. That's it!!! If the progression of the kids looks good next year and a half, they are going to want Yelich and Realmuto for 20-22.

 

If they did in fact blow all these trades like all the pundits know, they can still trade Yelich and Realmuto and get the same deal as today and circle 2023 instead. They are crazy awesome in their prime. Everyone will still want them. No harm done.

 

 

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I don't buy SilverBullet's assumption at all, at least without it having been tested. With the harmful effect on attendance of the Loria/Samson regime gone (we all know it was there), we were going to see whether with a new ownership group with a commitment to the team, favorable promotional activity and community outreach attendance and fan interest would have spiked meaningfully above the Loria levels. For gods sake they had 50M in additional revenue from MLB to cushion them for this year. It would have been far better to approach FSFlorida to negotiate under that scenario.  But no, they went the other way and in the course decimated the perception of the team and baseball in South Florida. 

 

 

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Fun part of the Jackson series is the pitch they're giving to investors. Sports investments are different than almost anything else. You invest because you want the prestige of owning a piece of a professional sports franchise. You invest because a) you can usually cash out pretty much at any point and b) when the team gets sold you make a huge profit.  Sports franchises - especially in MLB, NFL, and NBA - keep increasing in value. In 15 years the sale price of the Marlins increased from 158.5 million to 1.2 billion. 

 

Nobody buys into a sports franchise for short-term gains. If I had the money to invest, say, 20 million, for a piece of the 200 million goal of "Project Citrus", I wouldn't care at all about covering around 1.4-1.7% of team operating losses (20 million / 1.4 billion or 20 million / 1.2 billion, depending on whether "Project Citrus" is intended to add capital to the club or to cash out current investors). By guaranteeing investors that they won't have cash calls, either they're looking for short-term people only or money is going to be the priority for the foreseeable future.

 

If they're telling investors one thing and the public another, well, there are rules against misleading potential (and actual) investors, and there aren't any against lying to the public. As of now Marlins ownership is only in it for the money.

 

 

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You sure do speculate a lot.

 

Speculation isn't necessarily a bad thing if it's based on facts, rather than simply conjectures pulled out of one's butt. I'm going off the reporting, and stuff I've read in the past about sports investing. The reporting says the investment prospectus is a real thing, both for the original "Project Wolverine" and for the supplemental "Project Citrus".

 

Everything about the future in sports is speculation. The owner could have a heart attack. Heck, the team's best player could kill himself in an accident. When I was a kid one of the best players in the league (Lyman Bostock) was shot to death. Great prospects don't always pan out, and a 5'6" guy from Venezuela signed for $15,000 turns out to be the best player in the league. The league can decide the offenses have too much an advantage and increase the strike zone.

 

I'm clearly not the only guy who thinks this is likely to end badly. I'm not satisfied with a blueprint that makes the Marlins great in 2023, because it requires a lot of things to go right in the meantime. They're going to need to hit a few homeruns in the draft, since nobody in the organization projects to be an MVP-caliber player (I really like Yelich and Realmuto, but they're just not that good). They need to spend money, and wisely, acquiring international talent. They need to make some good trades, too. They are eventually going to need to persuade free agents to come here. Can it work? Of course it can - everybody points to the Astros and the Cubs as the models. But if it doesn't work, then you're talking about a very long time with a very bad - yet profitable! - baseball club.

 

 

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I find it doubtful that even if the newly acquired prospects reach their ceilings, the Marlins would be playoff contenders by 2020. They just haven't received any true impact prospects. There isn't exactly a core of players in the minors right now that is primed to lead the Marlins to the postseason in the way that recent successful rebuilding teams have. I guess we can see what happens with a possible Yelich trade.

 

It's probably 2021 as they will need Guzman/Rogers/Garret/Kolek/2018 first rounder and those guys are probably 2.5+ years away minimum, but I think you're jumping the gun a year of evaluation saying they don't have what they need to turn into a contender. Who knows?

 

A quick case study - 2017 Twins. They had a 24+ WAR offense and basically a 10 WAR pitching staff. They snuck into the playoffs. (To note, the Rockies were around this threshold also so not radically cherry picking the lowest playoff team.) Astros had 50+ if anyone is wondering.

 

If they develop two average starting players who are 2+ WAR (Sierra, Anderson), three average starting pitchers who are 2+ WAR (give them above a 50%+ flameout between Alcantara/Guzman, Rogers/Garret/Neidert, Merandy/Peters/Gallen, etc.), and have a top 12ish bullpen which was around a 4+ WAR in 2017 numbers (that seems fair to me because they have a lot of arms), throw in 7+ WAR from Realmuto and Yelich (they did 8 last year, you hope they do more) and you're over 20 WAR as a team and you can fill out the roster with 2 more starting pitchers and 4 more position players. Payroll is going to be super low to get 2-3 impact guys here. You're starting to get really close to the Twins/Rockies level of respectability. And that's with no real breakouts.

 

So this is just with the Marlins developing three Strailys, a Cody Ross, a Jarrod Dyson, a decent bullpen, plus keeping Yelich and Realmuto. The bar is really low here, and yes this is a testament to how good Yelich and Realmuto are to be cornerstone players to build around. For sure, they need to spend money and hit on 3 free agents and will need 1-2 players internally to breakout into a quasi-star level player like at least Realmuto, but it is hard to dismiss things entirely at this stage that that won't happen.

 

This goes back to the point I have been trying to make - give it a year. Everyone is quick to pass judgment based on an acknowledgedly disappointing on paper Stanton and Ozuna returns, but who knows what the team looks like at the end of the year. They just don't need to rush to trade Yelich or Realmuto today.

 

They just need to keep trading out the guys who aren't going to be here for the long haul (Castro, Bour, Barraclough, Straily, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Conley, Urena, etc.) whether it is now or the deadline, that is going to bring in another dozen prospects to add to the farm along with the 2018 draft class, we'll see a year of evaluation on everyone, and smarter decisions can be made as to where the young pitchers, Sierra, Anderson, Cooper, etc. are and if the Marlins are going to hit on some of these prospects.

 

If they suck and it looks like they missed on most of the guys and the SP are all relievers instead, Yelich and Realmuto are easy trades in 2019 and circle 2023 and pray for some good drafts in 2019/2020.

 

Just saying. I'm not saying to not be critical about the front office or not be disappointed, but they should be given a chance for a season and see where things land. Loria left the team a mess and it was always going to be a multi season rebuild. I'm just hoping it is 3 years not 5.

 

 

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Lets be honest with ourselves. They aren't because they weren't coming to watch last year's team or a 60-hr chase. 

 

Last year will seem capacity with what they get this year. I still don't understand how they can conclude in that project that attendance will increase.

 

What happens if investors start calling their money before the end of next year, or do you think all of them have agreed to at least 3 year deals ? I am clueless about how deals like this are done, so if I am off base educate me 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...
I don't buy SilverBullet's assumption at all, at least without it having been tested. With the harmful effect on attendance of the Loria/Samson regime gone (we all know it was there), we were going to see whether with a new ownership group with a commitment to the team, favorable promotional activity and community outreach attendance and fan interest would have spiked meaningfully above the Loria levels. For gods sake they had 50M in additional revenue from MLB to cushion them for this year. It would have been far better to approach FSFlorida to negotiate under that scenario.  But no, they went the other way and in the course decimated the perception of the team and baseball in South Florida. 

 

Wow! Someone else out there is not drinking the Kool-Aid.

 

 

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Wow! Someone else out there is not drinking the Kool-Aid.

 

There are plenty of us that disagree with the fire sale.  We've been adamantly against it and against Jeter for blowing our team up.  However, Spring Training is finally here.  I'm happy that baseball is around the corner and anxious to get to see some of this young talent develop.  Nothing we can do about what happened in the off season.

 

 

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