Pablo loses arbitration case

[SonOfJack]

 

[SilverBullet]

This is based off everything before this season right? 

[SonOfJack]

4 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

This is based off everything before this season right? 

Yes

[SilverBullet]

49 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Yes

"Mr. Lopez, you are the greatest pitcher in the NL at the moment, essentially the current leader in the Cy Young race, but that doesn't matter right now... we rule in favor of the Marlins, be better Mr. Lopez."

[Rydawg]

They should have settled this outside of arbitration. I could be wrong, but I think this will cost them any chance of extending Pablo. 

The good news is that if Pablo continues like this, and stays healthy, his trade value will never be higher.  Although, it would even further alienate the already small fan name that's left. 

[SilverBullet]

44 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I could be wrong, but I think this will cost them any chance of extending Pablo. 

Nah, Pablo is too nice and at the end of the day, while yes the Marlins should have settled with him the final ruling wasn't made by the Marlins. It's still just business and if they offer Pablo a good contract offer I think he still takes it. He seems to me like one of the ones who genuinely wants to be here when/if this team ever wins again, like Rojas and Sandy do. 

Ironically I think he's the guy we all peg to be shipped out whenever they finally decide to make one big game changing trade. 

[hovertical]

44 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

They should have settled this outside of arbitration. I could be wrong, but I think this will cost them any chance of extending Pablo. 

The good news is that if Pablo continues like this, and stays healthy, his trade value will never be higher.  Although, it would even further alienate the already small fan name that's left. 

there are so few fans left at this juncture that nothing really alienates it more.  They need a winner for about 3 straight seasons and despite some good starting pitching (outside of guys like Jose) pitching is generally not what brings the casual fan to the park.  They need some loud bats in the lineup. 

But yeah, there are so few fans left it probably doesn't matter if they moved him away for another piece (as long as the piece was not some project BS and was instead a proven big bat) as the few remaining fans probably tend to know a little about baseball and would actually look at the trade as a positive one like the Jazz trade was.

That said, i expect them to move Pablo for some "toolsy high upside bat" that sucks hahaha

[SilverBullet]

Another thing with Pablo, he's not a star, casual fans wouldn't be pissed to lose him because they don't even know who he is. They should, but they don't. 

[SonOfJack]

Anyone still left as a fan of this team isn't going anywhere even if they traded Jazz or Sandy. Even if some of us claim we would, we wouldn't. And those fans who would, already left.

[hovertical]

1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

Anyone still left as a fan of this team isn't going anywhere even if they traded Jazz or Sandy. Even if some of us claim we would, we wouldn't. And those fans who would, already left.

I said the same thing a couple of posts prior. Where's my upvote?!?!

[SonOfJack]

2 minutes ago, hovertical said:

Where's my upvote?!?!

Here you go

[Das Texan]

Bruce Sherman was a very happy man yesterday at this news. 

[SirFishFan]

Casual Marlins fans will come out to the park if there is an exciting attention grabbing flashy young pitcher who is making news nationally like with Dontrelle, Jose and Sixto.

 

Pablo Lopez is a young pitcher having an excellent season so far, and beginning to be talked about nationally but he's not exciting and flashy enough.

 

The only way I can see Marlins selling out a game when Pablo is pitching is maybe if he starts the All Star Game and is like 11-1 with a 8 game winning streak. And even then that's still not 100% guaranteed.

[MarlinsLou]

On 5/21/2022 at 4:05 PM, Rydawg said:

They should have settled this outside of arbitration. I could be wrong, but I think this will cost them any chance of extending Pablo. 

The good news is that if Pablo continues like this, and stays healthy, his trade value will never be higher.  Although, it would even further alienate the already small fan name that's left. 

Given the delta, I don't disagree they should have added $250k and met in the middle. But big picture, this isn't just about $500k it's about keeping his payroll down so he can't scale as far up next two seasons. If they keep Pablo the next two years via arbitration, this is probably a total of $3-5m in savings. I mean, that is nothing over the course of 3 seasons, but at the same time, that buys you a season of Floro and Bleier versus club controlled options and Bruce Sherman is that cheap. All roads lead back to this.

I don't think this impacts a Pablo extension at all. The player is worth a range, and once you get into it they likely sign. Today, that's probably a 4/$45-50 extension (which basically comps him just below Sandy - who got the largest deal ever for a pitcher of his service time. Pablo is good, but he isn't Sandy despite this season thus far). If Pablo goes full 6+ WAR acetastic and gets to the offseason, it's probably starting to look at Berrios as the comp where the Blue Jays bought out his entire prime years. Post this season after being acetastic, I'd venture to say Pablo starts looking like a 7/$100-110 player. Berrios did 7/$131 for those wondering, but he was 1 closer year to free agency (and has historically been better than Pablo) which is why he's scaled a bit lower. Pablo has lower incentive to agree to a 4 year extension if he's going to get a massive 2nd arbitration payout (e.g., really setting himself up for life level money even if on the lower end for a professional player) and be that much closer to free agency. He is much younger than Ray/Gausman, and they got over $100m in free agency.

Even bigger picture - let's say Pablo would do 4/$48 today. Would we want them to do that as Marlins fans? Is it better to cash him in for likely a top 50, top 100, and another really good prospect (similar to Berrios trade) at the deadline or offseason, or sign him and trade Meyer/Cabrera for the "fucking center fielder."

I'm thinking big picture pipeline of 5 SP:

1 - Sandy - > Sandy
2 - Rogers - > Rogers (with Eder/Fulton longterm lefty replacements if he fails)
3 - Luzardo - > Luzardo (with Eder/Fulton longterm lefty replacements if he fails)
4 - Pablo, Meyer, or Cabrera (with Sixto still around and not in the pen?)
5 - Hernandez/Poteet/Trickle Downs from above - > Eury. He's like the best pitching in AA at 19. It looks like they may have been right about Beckett/Fernandez level. He's their # 1 prospect to me and it's not close.

Basically, it's Sandy, keep all 4 good lefty arms and you likely get 2 lefty SP out of them short and long term, and Eury seems destined to be a big part of the team and they have plenty of guys to bridge to him. I think Eury may be a summer 2023 guy, or "2 weeks and 1 day into the season" 2024 guy.

So thinking payroll wise, do you spend the money on Pablo and there is the longterm 5  of Sandy, Pablo, Eury, Rogers, Luzardo.... with Eder/Fulton/others filling pipeline behind them, or move Pablo and let the Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Hernandez, Poteet, Eder, and Fulton battles begin for the last spot. That's a lot of names for 1 spot, and includes depth if someone gets a TJ like Luzardo.

 

So long story long, extension? I don't think it's in the cards regardless of this arbitration hearing outcome. I think you trade Pablo deadline or offseason (maximize value with control of 23/24 seasons), keep the quantity of arms and bank on them turning into quality, and draft another college SP 2nd/3rd round (#6 overall has to be a college bat!!!) to keep the pipeline going. Pablo gets them massive players, opens up money, opens up opportunity for Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Eury, and presumably, if the idea is the team needs 3 more notable bats... Pablo is likely 1.... they have free agency money even at Bruce levels for 2.... and then hope Lewin/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar/others turn into a 3rd one. This makes the most to me.

Ideally the team is contending so Pablo scorches earth the whole year and gets them to the postseason before this happens, but if they keep losing the 1 run heartbreakers, they are going to be able to have a serious summer turnover and maybe year 6 of the BUILD is the one.

[MarlinsLou]

On 5/21/2022 at 4:57 PM, SilverBullet said:

Another thing with Pablo, he's not a star, casual fans wouldn't be pissed to lose him because they don't even know who he is. They should, but they don't. 

He's playing like a star, but it wouldn't matter as he'd bring back such an exciting package and a BAT so one would blame them with a backup plan being three top 100 pitchers coming up this summer in various roles (and Eury and Eder next year after them!). Even casual fans get they need some massive offense upgrades and something has got to give. It should have happened already, but I think I have smashed the dead horse's body into dust at this point.

[MarlinsLou]

On 5/21/2022 at 5:02 PM, SonOfJack said:

Anyone still left as a fan of this team isn't going anywhere even if they traded Jazz or Sandy. Even if some of us claim we would, we wouldn't. And those fans who would, already left.

Look at what is happening in Oakland - this isn't rock bottom. Of course, we could say Oakland fans are giving the team a middle finger until they do something (much like myself who refuses to watch a Marlins game until they trade for the CF, or massive bat upgrade), so maybe that is "isn't going anywhere" like you say. I do think the Marlins are in a unique situation right now though where so many positive things can be pointed to (Sandy, Pablo, Jazz, overall all the SP and prospect depth) that if they continue to do nothing, this is a forever write-off of Sherman. Another offseason without the marquee moves for star bats with this low of a payroll and so many tradeable assets and I really think he is forever toast in the minds of fans. We'll see. If he gives Ng a $110 payroll next year, I think they'll be a top 5-8 team on paper entering the season (absent major injuries here on out of course). All roads lead to Bruce being cheap for me.

[Michael]

43 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Look at what is happening in Oakland - this isn't rock bottom. Of course, we could say Oakland fans are giving the team a middle finger until they do something (much like myself who refuses to watch a Marlins game until they trade for the CF, or massive bat upgrade), so maybe that is "isn't going anywhere" like you say. I do think the Marlins are in a unique situation right now though where so many positive things can be pointed to (Sandy, Pablo, Jazz, overall all the SP and prospect depth) that if they continue to do nothing, this is a forever write-off of Sherman. Another offseason without the marquee moves for star bats with this low of a payroll and so many tradeable assets and I really think he is forever toast in the minds of fans. We'll see. If he gives Ng a $110 payroll next year, I think they'll be a top 5-8 team on paper entering the season (absent major injuries here on out of course). All roads lead to Bruce being cheap for me.

That center fielder will be acquired this off-season.

His name is Aaron Judge.

 

You heard it here first, everyone.

[SonOfJack]

29 minutes ago, Michael said:

That center fielder will be acquired this off-season.

His name is Aaron Judge.

 

You heard it here first, everyone.

ALL RISE!

I know one thing that will rise.

[Michael]

4 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

ALL RISE!

I know one thing that will rise.

All the saving. All the penny-pinching. All the prospect hoarding. It's all leading to this off-season. Judge and Correa are coming home and we'll still have the pitchers.

[MarlinsLou]

1 hour ago, Michael said:

That center fielder will be acquired this off-season.

His name is Aaron Judge.

 

You heard it here first, everyone.

I can't see them spending $250m on age 31-38+ guy, who will have to move off CF in a year or two (right?).

Given that Correa/Turner/Boegarts/Arenado are the prime FA, I think they still have to move the pitching for a CF and then if they really care, will get that massive infield upgrade somewhere. It's probably one of those first two and go for it.

[Michael]

Just now, MarlinsLou said:

I can't see them spending $250m on age 31-38+ guy, who will have to move off CF in a year or two (right?).

Given that Correa/Turner/Boegarts/Arenado are the prime FA, I think they still have to move the pitching for a CF and then if they really care, will get that massive infield upgrade somewhere. It's probably one of those first two and go for it.

But Lou, why would they have held on for so long and been deemed cheap AF by all of us if not for exactly this moment to get two superstars at the same time to compliment their already superstar-in-the-making at second base?

[hovertical]

13 minutes ago, Michael said:

But Lou, why would they have held on for so long and been deemed cheap AF by all of us if not for exactly this moment to get two superstars at the same time to compliment their already superstar-in-the-making at second base?

If Judge and Correa did come here they'd both be injured or Don (after his 3yr extension) would rest them twice a week at minimum

[Michael]

1 hour ago, hovertical said:

If Judge and Correa did come here they'd both be injured or Don (after his 3yr extension) would rest them twice a week at minimum

Yes, of course.

[MarlinsLou]

1 hour ago, Michael said:

But Lou, why would they have held on for so long and been deemed cheap AF by all of us if not for exactly this moment to get two superstars at the same time to compliment their already superstar-in-the-making at second base?

I realize this is in jest, but maybe Bruce had to see his pitching staff be - 5th in ERA - before he opens up payroll a little. Assuming this year is status quo, Ng is certainly telling him 5-7 more P monsters are coming and we can't trade all of them to get the offensive upgrades we need. We can go get 1 big-time guy and likely another Wendle/Stallings type or two, but you need to open the payroll to get a free agency star. It's like history repeats when Correa opts out. They should have signed him this offseason but may get a do over.

I don't know. If this offseason was the they will never care if they don't move up to "Milwaukee" level payroll offseason, next year is THEY ABSOLUTELY don't care based on the dominance of the SP staff right now. It's now proof in concept and not just projections. Outside of Tampa, I can't think of another ownership group that wouldn't GO FOR IT. Caps lock GO FOR IT with these pitchers. You can forgive them not doing shit this offseason with 2nd/3rd tier guys, if they make it up with two killers by opening day next year. So we'll see what they do. I'm still cautiously optimistic even if no past behavior indicates they will spend. The pitching is just that good and going to get better, and even Bruce will eventually figure that out.

[SonOfJack]

It must be nice to have hope but I've thought the last 2 off-seasons, Sherman had a reason to spend and obvious needs to fill and he didn't do anything but remain cheap.

I don't see that suddenly changing.