For weeks now I've been talking about the Marlins facing an innings deficit with their projected starting staff. When they are right, they have the potential to be very good. There is no denying this, lets be perfect clear about that. Full stop.
However...
In 2024 there are silly little things like innings limitations and pitcher health et al.
Starting pitchers (especially young guys, of which all the Marlins starters would still qualify) are not going to be pushed more than 20% more innings than the previous year, all things considered. Coming off injury changes the equation some, however you are not going to see a pitcher go from 30 innings pitched to 150 in the next season. That will not happen. Not in this day of protection of players.
So lets go through the math here.
A 5 man starting rotation needs to take 32 starts per season (its actually 32.4, but for the sake of this lets go down to 32 and figure out the other 2 starts effectively some other way).
For a starter to go 6 innings (OMG!) that is 192 innings per season.
Lets look at the Marlins projected staff from 2023:
Eury Perez - 91.1 innings pitched in the majors
Jesus Luzardo - 178.2 innings pitched
Trevor Rogers - 18 innings pitched
Braxton Garrett - 159.2 innings pitched
Edward Cabrera - 99.2 innings pitched
Lets look at the Fangraphs projections for 2024:
Eury Perez - 122 innings pitched (I think 125/130 is more realistic though)
Jesus Luzardo - 178.1 innings pitched (I think this is bunk and he can go 192 (or a full season)
Trevor Rogers - 124 innings pitched (seems reasonable coming off injury)
Braxton Garrett - 158 innings pitched (I think this is quite light and project him being able to go 180-192 innings pitched, so basically taking 30 starts at least)
Edward Cabrera - 132 innings pitched
That is about 771 innings pitched.
For your 5 starters at 6 innings per start you are looking at 960 innings needed.
That is a deficit of 189 innings pitched.
Incidentally they project Max Meyer to get about 100 innings which is not unreasonable. That is still a deficit.
So doing simple MATH, unless you are going to have your starting staff average 5 innings a start, which only leaves your bullpen on fumes come August, then there is a major innings deficit facing the Marlins.
With the word they are seriously looking at moving Edward Cabrera and that deficit gets EVEN MORE GLARING!
As I've been saying for weeks, the Marlins should have spent money and signed a veteran starter to provide them innings, but they refused to do so becuase Bruce Sherman is cheap. Bruce Sherman does not have the desire to win at the Major League Level in 2024. Bruce Sherman does not see that this team was a playoff team in 2023 and build toward sustained winning, improved fan engagement and improved attendance.
Bruce Sherman is concerned mostly with his own profits. Signing a player for 1-2 years does nothing to affect your long term sustainability. It only costs a few dollars, of which Bruce Sherman either doesnt have the desire or the cash (less likely given how much cash each team recieves these days).
Bruce Sherman is not serious about winning. Not in 2024, not in 2025, not in ever. This is just the reality of the situation.
Math is not the Marlins friend, no matter what pollyanna fantasy some might want to send your way.
And this pitching deficit is a shame and easily avoidable with just a little bit of investment in this organization.