http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article...sp&c_id=fla

 

Challenges beckon talented Marlins

01/01/2007 10:00 AM ET

By Joe Frisaro / MLB.com

 

MIAMI -- Step 1 in 2006 was to battle-test a rookie-laden squad and see how quickly it could mature.

Overall, the plan worked better than expected, as the youthful Marlins finished 78-84 when many insiders predicted the baby-faced roster would lose more than 100 games.

 

Step 2 in 2007 is to see if this talented group can make even a bigger leap and become a serious playoff contender.

 

Again, it will be a tall task because financial limitations have prevented the front office from pursuing established, and often expensive, big-league help. Working with a budget in the neighborhood of $26 million, general manager Admin Beinfest has to be as crafty as ever to plug in holes.

 

The challenge is nothing new for the thrifty front office. Conventional wisdom says the young players who over-performed in 2006 are due for a collective "sophomore slump." Yet in the eyes of upper management, the organization fully expects the team -- regardless of its experience -- to compete for a playoff berth.

 

Realistically, it will take about 10 more wins from a year ago to seriously be in the postseason mix. So a minimum of 88 wins is necessary if the Marlins aspire to play into late October.

 

Manager Fredi Gonzalez, who inherits a gifted group of young players, provides new leadership, replacing Joe Girardi, who was dismissed two days after the season ended. After spending the past four years as the Braves third base coach, Gonzalez returns home.

 

A Miami native, the 42-year-old previously was the Marlins' third base coach, as well as a manager in the organization's Minor League system.

 

Gonzalez has some nice talent to work with.

 

Three-time All-Star Miguel Cabrera has blossomed into a team leader and one of the league's most feared hitters. Cabrera, who set a franchise season record by hitting .339 last year, finished second in the batting title race to Pittsburgh's Freddy Sanchez.

 

Lefty Dontrelle Willis remains the ace of a staff that featured four rookies who made big-league history. Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are the first rookie foursome to win 10 or more games in the same season. Sanchez also etched his place in history by tossing a no-hitter in his 13th MLB start.

 

Season in Preview

A lot can change by Opening Day, but as 2006 becomes 2007, this is who is projected to take the field for the Marlins:

SS Hanley Ramirez

2B Dan Uggla

3B Miguel Cabrera

1B Mike Jacobs

LF Josh Willingham

RF Jeremy Hermida

C Miguel Olivo

CF Alex Sanchez

SP Dontrelle Willis

SP Josh Johnson

SP Scott Olsen

SP Ricky Nolasco

CL Taylor Tankersley/Matt Lindstrom

Schedules: Spring | Regular season

Tickets: Regular season

 

More previews: Select a team MLB Angels Astros Athletics Blue Jays Braves Brewers Cardinals Cubs > D-backs Dodgers Giants Indians Mariners Marlins Mets Nationals Orioles Padres Phillies Pirates Rangers RaysRed Sox Reds Rockies Royals Tigers Twins White Sox Yankees

 

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez won the NL Rookie of the Year, and rookie second baseman Dan Uggla became the first Rule 5 pick ever to be selected to the All-Star Game in the same season he was drafted.

 

While there is reason for optimism, Gonzalez is setting modest goals.

 

"The only expectation I'm going to tell them is go out and play the game hard, and leave it on the field every day," Gonzalez said. "The wins and losses, that stuff is going to come. We are trying to build from last year, but I'm not going to put any number on the team as far as wins."

 

Gonzalez realizes the difficulties of making drastic improvements.

 

"It's hard for any team to win, and to improve 10 games," he said. "There's teams that get right there to .500, and say, 'Well, we got all the guys coming back, we can improve another 10 games to get to 90 wins or something.' But it is hard. You've got to be injury-free, and got to be lucky with guys having a good year. I'm not going to put any number on how many wins we are going to have. We are just going to go out and compete."

 

Offseason report card: Still in a money pinch as talks continue to secure a new retractable-roof stadium, Beinfest again finds himself having to stretch his available dollars. The biggest financial obligations are going toward signing superstars, Willis and Cabrera. Retaining both All-Stars will cost around $12 million of the projected $26 million payroll. In the past, Beinfest has been able to find bargains, signing closers Armando Benitez (2004), Todd Jones (2005) and Joe Borowski (2006). Because the free agent market for veteran relievers has skyrocketed, the front office is having to be especially crafty to fill their primary needs: bullpen and center field. They are exploring deals for low-service-time relievers and veterans who are looking for a chance to rebound their careers. Two minor trades may turn up being huge, as Florida brought in strong-armed relievers Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens from the Mets for lefties Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick. Lindstrom and Owens are regarded as possible closer candidates. Middle reliever Kevin Gregg was added in a deal with the Angels for right-hander Chris Resop. Alex Sanchez, who has big-league experience, but a controversial past, has been given a chance to play center field. In 2005, Sanchez was the first player to test positive in the new steroid policy. Out of the big leagues last year, the speedster has signed a Minor League contract with an invitation to big-league camp. While Sanchez is a gamble, he's a low-risk one because he's signed a Minor League deal. Beinfest continues to explore trade options, and January likely will be a busier month as he attempts to round out the roster. Grade on a scale of 1 to 10: 3, it's too early to tell.

 

Arrivals: RHP Lindstrom (trade), RHP Owens (trade), RHP Gregg (trade), CF Alex Sanchez (Minor League contract with invite to big-league camp).

 

Departures: 1B/3B Wes Helms (Phillies), RHP Brian Moehler, RHP Borowski (Indians) and RHP Matt Herges.

 

The road ahead: So many young players came of age in 2006, and the organization is hopeful that these talented players continue their upward track. There also are a number of Minor League arms moving rapidly through the system, giving the team pitching depth and trade options as the club seeks to solidify its bullpen and center field.

good article, looks good. That's the lineup I'm expecting, with Boone platooning somewhere.

left anibal off the rotation and there's no way Lindstrom is closing to start the year

I think Uggla will likely become less of a top of the order bat.

 

SS Hanley Ramirez

RF Jeremy Hermida

3B Miguel Cabrera

1B Mike Jacobs

LF Josh Willingham

2B Dan Uggla

CF Alex Sanchez

C Miguel Olivo

SS Ramirez

2B UJggla

RF Hermida

3B Cabrera

LF Willingham

1B Jacobs

CF Amezaga (I dono about Sanchez yet)

C Olivo

P

SP Willis

SP Johnson

SP Olsen

SP An. Sanchez

SP Mitre

RP Lindstrom

RP Nolasco

RP Tankersley

CL TBA

 

thats my hunch

left anibal off the rotation and there's no way Lindstrom is closing to start the year

he said he's a possibility for closer not starter

opening day:

 

ramirez

uggla

cabrera

willingham

jacobs

hermida

olivo

sanchez

 

...i hope hermida and jacobs improve enough to make the order look like this

 

ramirez

hermida

cabrera

jacobs

uggla

willingham

olivo

sanchez

ss Ramirez

2b Uggla

Cf Hermida

Rf Cabrera

1b Jacobs

Lf Willingham

3b Boone

C Olivo

P ....

ss Ramirez

2b Uggla

Cf Hermida

Rf Cabrera

1b Jacobs

Lf Willingham

3b Boone

C Olivo

P ....

cabrera's not going back to right field

...i hope hermida and jacobs improve enough to make the order look like this

 

ramirez

hermida

cabrera

jacobs

uggla

willingham

olivo

sanchez

I'm with you until the end. This is what I expect them to hit vs RHP this year. I'm not sold on Alex Sanchez making the team, and further, he hits for average against RHP/LHP but Amezaga has better OBP potential vs RHP. Gotta play him over what we have right now, which is pretty scary so I really hope we bring in another CF. Really have to bat Olivo last because of his awful OBP and just enjoy the random HR when they come. God bless excel.

 

R Hanley Ramirez .290/.345/.450 (.795)

L Jeremy Hermida .280/.360/.445 (.805)

R Miguel Cabrera .345/.430/.575 (1.005)

L Mike Jacobs .285/.350/.510 (.860)

R Dan Uggla .270/.325/.475 (.800)

R Josh Willingham .270/.335/.450 (.785)

S Alfredo Amezaga .280/.340/.365 (.705)

R Miguel Olivo .270/.285/.450 (.735)

 

Gotta do some tweaks vs LHP because Willingham's OPS jumps 200 points, Hanley's 150 points, Cody Ross slugs a .550+, Boone will probably out OPS Jacobs by 150-200ish points, etc, but the above is easily the optimal base lineup for the squad at this time.

I also think it is more likely that Uggla will be dropped to the bottom of the order and Willingham would be moved up (I don't even think it would be that outrageous to hit Willingham leadoff).

Disagree. Hammers stats are outrageously inflated because of his absolute drilling of LHP. It's not like he's useless vs RHP, but batting him first would be a poor decision because you'd be hurting yourself OBP wise vs RHP because Hanley, Hermida, Cabrera, Jacobs, Amezaga, and hell maybe even Borchard display better OBP ability compared to him. Likewise, vs LHP, putting a .600+ slugging first for the sake of Hammer taking pitches, walking, etc is a pretty bad idea. Hammer is one of the easier lineup calls to make. Assuming we have the Amezaga/Ross/A.Sanchez triumvirate in center field (all the unlikely, but still), Hammer is at best the # 5 hitter vs RHP, preferably 6th, but he should hit cleanup vs LHP.

 

I can see Hanley batting 2nd against everyone by the end of the year and progressing into maybe something more if the 25+ HR power really strikes. I'd like to see Uggla 6th all year, which basically means we need a new center fielder that can bat somewhere 1-5 vs all pitching and not have 3+ positions marked with platoonsville. This all keeps coming back to getting a real CF versus the Amezaga/Ross/godforbid A.Sanchez platoon. Life will be so easy with a CF.

Just throwing something out there.. would a Borchard/Ross platoon be THAT bad?

Just throwing something out there.. would a Borchard/Ross platoon be THAT bad?

amezaga>borchard+ross platoon.

Just throwing something out there.. would a Borchard/Ross platoon be THAT bad?

 

The Ross and Borchard we saw last season? Yes.

 

I'm not going to go look it up but did Borchard play any CF last season? I bet if he did it wasn't more than twenty innings. And Ross' time was limited as well. We really don't know how they would perform in terms of a 162 games season, even being platooned, would they be capable of defending the position and at the same time being offensively productive night in and night out?

 

In the moment I'm reminded of Lenny Harris. In his last season he had a grand total of 70 ABs hitting .314. Does anyone really believe if he had 270 at bats he would have been anywhere near as productive? I don't. As you expand playing time the matchups that worked to the advantage of a pinch-hitting Borchard become only a portion the at bats he'll see. Stuff happens.

 

But in the end it depends on what the Ross' and Borchards are doing to prepare themselves to compete for roster spots and playing time in 2007. For all we know Ross is taking 200 balls a day simulating CF or he's spending everyday consuming banana splits at Dairy Queen by the armful. I think most of these kinds of questions(for me, maybe not for you or others) have to wait until spring training to be answered and we see what the 2007 version of some of these players have morphed into.

 

You could make the case that bringing in a Ryan Church for the same money (although talent would have to go back to the Nats or whatever team we acquired a similar player from) as either Borchard or Ross could make sense. We could sit here until three in the morning proposing moves like that.

 

It isn't always the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. The fact that Amezaga continues to play the left side of the infield exclusively in Mexico continues to make me think Beinfest is still on the hunt for not just "a" centerfielder, but the "right" centerfielder.

 

You talk about a small camp of people who'd like to see Mitre when healthy get a shot at the fifth starter position, I'm a member of an even smaller cell who believes AA, all things considered, did an excellent job under very difficult circumstances in CF, and were we to not acquire someone other than the names being bandied about now - Sanchez, Borchard, Ross, Reed - I'd take Amezaga in a heartbeat if he comes into spring training and wins the job outright. But as I said it looks from where he's playing Mexico that is not even on the drawingboard in LB's office.

 

We'll know soon enough.

ss Ramirez

2b Uggla

Cf Hermida

Rf Cabrera

1b Jacobs

Lf Willingham

3b Boone

C Olivo

P ....

I highly doubt Boone will start opening day unless he is great in ST.

I'm a member of an even smaller cell who believes AA' date=' all things considered, did an excellent job under very difficult circumstances in CF, and were we to not acquire someone other than the names being bandied about now - Sanchez, Borchard, Ross, Reed - I'd take Amezaga in a heartbeat if he comes into spring training and wins the job outright.[/quote']

ditto

I'm a member of an even smaller cell who believes AA, all things considered, did an excellent job under very difficult circumstances in CF, and were we to not acquire someone other than the names being bandied about now - Sanchez, Borchard, Ross, Reed - I'd take Amezaga in a heartbeat if he comes into spring training and wins the job outright.

ditto

 

 

I think he's the best option we have right now in Cf he still young and still learning the position and I would start him in Cf over anyone we have now

Just throwing something out there.. would a Borchard/Ross platoon be THAT bad?

No, they would splits into a Craig Monroe type corner OF. Something like .255/.330/.470 in a best case scenario. They'd probably hit 25-30 HR which would be appreciated.

 

Amezaga/Ross would have to be the CF platoon, and that would be something like .265/.325/.410. This is why I've been saying since October, if they go cheap and not get a longterm option, all they need to do is find a center fielder who can hit RHP. Replacing Amezaga in the platoon with a better option, like say a high 700's OPSing player vs RHP, morphs into .270/.340/.435 or better really fast, and assuming the new guy could play average to above average defense, substantial upgrade.

You're thinking about it too hard.

 

Ramirez's OBP vs. RHP is not much higher than Willingham's is (.342 compared to .334). While better, it is still fairly negligible.

 

Hermida's is less than Ramirez's. If he ever reaches his potential I expect him to be a 1-2 hitter.

 

Same goes for everyone else more or less. I don't think it's a point that needs to be made, because while his OBP is only a tad lower against RHP, it's still pretty even tier, and hitter's will be facing LHP as well, making his net OBP most important.

 

Ideally I wanted the Marlins to acquire a CF that had a decent OBP (that's why I wasn't a fan of bringing in Pierre, Taveras, or Crawford). Of the entire roster I think Hermida's plate discipline could make him potentially the best leadoff hitter but he still has a lot to prove.

Not really. Hermida will probably out OBP every hitter in the lineup except Cabrera vs RHP next year, and 'net' wise, it's a toss up between Hanley, Hermida, and Willingham who will be # 2 on the club as they will all produce somewhere in the .345-.365 range. As for Hammer batting 1st, please. Negligible difference sure because some blop singles explain that, but it's still stronger for Hanley, who also has a rather distinct speed advantage over Hammer. Top of the order is really easy with Hanley, Hermida, Cabs, and Jacobs, with your 4 best OBP threats vs RHP, top two slugging threats 3 and 4, alternating sides of the plate, speed on top, and personally, I'd really like to see Hermida put in front of Cabrera just so he sees pitches because his success or failure into a big time player greatly effects the Marlins long term plans.

 

I have no problem shifting Hanley to # 2 permanently if the slugging trend continues, dropping Uggla to 6, or moving whoever around as we see trends develop over the season, but this isn't the American league where you want the # 2 HR threat on the team with Willingham batting 1st. Marlins need him to hit those and subsequent extra base hits with runners on base. I'm guessing the Marlins share this opinion and we'll see Hammer batting 5th, and shifting up to cleanup when Jacobs is removed vs LHP.

left anibal off the rotation and there's no way Lindstrom is closing to start the year

he said he's a possibility for closer not starter

that's what i said...

Your "vs. RHP" argument is the only thing I don't find the least bit convincing. With everything else you are making valid points. Ideally, Hermida would be your top of the order hitter (like I mentioned in my first post), so in that respect I agree. Willingham's ability in my mind to hit leadoff is based solely on the fact that I don't expect Hermida to perform, the Marlins have no high OBP CF yet, and I think Hanley is maturing into more of a middle of the order hitter. He is perhaps the only offensive player on the team (other than Hermida of course) whose ceiling we have not seen. If the Marlins get a legitimate CF who can provide a consistent .350-.360 OBP, my feelings would be different.

The vs RHP train of thought is basically a short of way of saying we have a really solid base lineup that's really obvious for most games, but versus LHP we need to "remove Jacobs for Boone, drop Hermida 6/7 versus batting 2nd vs RHP because his OBP potential is clearly 30-40 points higher against non lefties, insert Cody for Amezaga," and subsequently you stack the lineup around those 3 core changes. That's it, and I think you'd agree with me all those moves make sense on paper. Sorry if I was confusing. It's just the way we are set up right now with basically six neutral offensive players on the team, hopefully a 7th with Hermida establishing himself sooner than I believe, versus the others who just flat out become bad starting players comparing their OPS to position. Obviously Hanley and Hammer have huge splits, so I note neutral is defined here as not only a general sense of consistency, but also 'not becoming worthless' ala Mike Jacobs.

 

Expected RHP/LHP Splits

 

Neutral

Hanley .795/.950

Cabrera 1.000/1.000

Willingham .785/1.000

Uggla .800/.810

Olivo .735/.715

Treanor .645/.685

 

Non-Neutral

Hermida .805/.710

Jacobs .860/.575

Amezaga .705/.450

Boone .675/.785

Ross .650/.850

Borchard .800/.500

 

RHP - Hanley, Hermida, Cabrera, Jacobs, Uggla/Hammer, Hammer/Uggla, Amezaga, Olivo

LHP - Boone/Uggla, Hanley, Cabrera, Willingham, Uggla/Boone, Ross, Hermida, Olivo

 

We're really close to the same page with this. They absolutely need a legit CF who can produce a solid .350-.360 OBP. It would instantly bump Amezaga into super utility, allow the team on occasion to shift Ross to RF versus LHP over Hermida who should be eased into a greater hitting role ala how Atlanta finally let LaRoche hit LHP this year, and hit leadoff over Boone or Uggla vs LHP (who really are the top two leadoff options vs LHP as weird as that sounds). The only things that we seem to have a difference on is, I think it's going to take a few years for Hanley to become more of a # 3 hitter where you think that progression might happen faster, and that I'm completely sold on Hermida and not worried whatsoever about him producing.

 

I'd settle for a .270/.340/.400+ vs RHP and good defense in center field at this point for the last position player on the roster, and just play the platoon game all year as stop gaps. But we seriously need Rocco, Rios, BJ, etc. All of them absolutely are young, cheap, awesome, 'neutral,' and brings so much stability to the outfield not having to shuffle everyone constantly to avoid glaring weaknesses, that should benefit the team alone ignoring the fact they'll hit the crap out of the circus we have out there now. I don't even care if they don't bring in another RP at this point if they get a legit CF. It'll have a much larger short and long term impact.

Just throwing something out there.. would a Borchard/Ross platoon be THAT bad?

 

I don't think so personally, although Borchard hasn't been given the opportunity in center field. He's more suited to the corner outfield positions, but I've read him in interviews saying he would welcome the chance to play center field. I question how well he'd fit in a center field like ours, but I think he should at least get a look.

 

Matter of fact, when Borchard was still a top prospect I think that was the big question, whether he could play center field or not. I don't see really where he was ever given much of a shot. Although maybe they just judged him in the minors & decided he couldn't handle it.

 

Barring a best-case scenario like Baldelli coming here, would you rather have a good defensive center fielder with minimal offense, or a guy who gives you average or better offensive production, but is probably less than average defensively?

Barring a best-case scenario like Baldelli coming here, would you rather have a good defensive center fielder with minimal offense, or a guy who gives you average or better offensive production, but is probably less than average defensively?

I would take OBP/Defense (which I guess is minimal offense), and let Cody mash 35-40 games vs LHP. I would ignore the overall slugging and just try to prevent outs.

With Cody's numbers vs LHP, Borch at least has a fair .obp vs RHP and together that's not bad. Combined, they could at least give you something like, oh I dunno... Mike Cameron numbers maybe.

 

Maybe I'm way off, but again I hope they at least take a look at Joe in CF. He's no burner but moves well for 6' 4", and he showed at least decent instincts in the outfield (which Amezega struggled with) plus he has a pretty good arm.

 

 

I hope we find a better solution, just trying to see what our best in-house option is. I think AA did a very admirable job in CF last year, but even so, I wouldn't call him a particularly good defensive player out there, and if he's not giving you defense, what's the point? I'd rather utilize him off the bench & to spell the middle infielders.

With Cody's numbers vs LHP, Borch at least has a fair .obp vs RHP and together that's not bad. Combined, they could at least give you something like, oh I dunno... Mike Cameron numbers maybe.

 

Maybe I'm way off, but again I hope they at least take a look at Joe in CF. He's no burner but moves well for 6' 4", and he showed at least decent instincts in the outfield (which Amezega struggled with) plus he has a pretty good arm.

 

 

I hope we find a better solution, just trying to see what our best in-house option is. I think AA did a very admirable job in CF last year, but even so, I wouldn't call him a particularly good defensive player out there, and if he's not giving you defense, what's the point? I'd rather utilize him off the bench & to spell the middle infielders.

No way on Cameron. Cody's OPS score is almost entirely slugging, and Cameron is an OBP whore. I really think a best case scenario for Cody/Borch is Craig Monroesville, which really isnt that bad if it's your predominant # 7 hitter. I have serious concerns with Borchard's defense as I see him being the worst of the lot. He's as corner OF as they come. Ross can fake it for a few years in a limited capacity probably, and I agree Amezaga did an admirably job considering the circumstances. I see AA/Ross as the best in house, and the sleeper of the group being Reed because if he can hit a .330+ OBP vs RHP, he takes AA's place in the platoon. He can really play defense, so he's my 25th man right now just for speed/def. That's a scary thought though cause I can't imagine us not bringing in another OF (not Alex Sanchez) for the 25 man roster..