The first thing that would need to be done to understand if BC could be a good starter or not is to project what his future line would be.

 

First thing to understand his his plus feature in his offense is his power. He has a career MILB ISO of .213 (ISO = Isolated Power, SLG minus AVG). His MLB career ISO is only .106 but we're also talking about a grand total of 133 PAs. He does have poor contact rates which will hurt his power numbers but he's also in the prime of his career...but he also plays in a pitchers park. Projections have him at around .170-.175 ISO, so let's go with .175.

 

Next part is OBP, or walk%. His MILB walk% is 6.8% and his MLB walk% is 6.8%. Yeah.

 

The problem next is average. He has a bad MILB average (.259), a horrible MLB average (.220), bad BABIPs, bad K%, bad contact%, the list goes on. Plain and simple, unless some drastic change happens, he will not hit for average. Projections have him as being a .230-.240 hitter. Because we're marlins fans and we want to be optimistic lets say .240.

 

That would put up at roughly a .240/.295/.415 line, or a .710 OPS.

 

I've said it before but I think he could more or less be our Franklin Gutierrez. Gutierrez has a career line of .260/.314/.408/.722. Better contact but less power. However, Gutierrez has been a good player because of his defense, throughout his career he's been worth 5.9 wins. His career is about 2 seasons worth of stats, so he's worth roughly 3 wins over a season, which is very good.

 

The problem though is that Brett Carroll is not Gutierrez defensively. Carroll has a plus arm and plus range, but Gutierrez has possibility the best OF range in all of baseball. A more apt comparision for Carroll is probably Alex Rios. There might be better ones out there but he's the best I can think of at the time. Plus, Rios is a pure RFer. Rios

 

Rios in his career has a 14.3 UZR/150 (or, in other words, he rates to have a 14.3 UZR in a 150 game span). He save 6.9 runs with his arm, 6.9 runs with his range, and 0.5 runs by not creating errors.

 

The problem with Carroll's career fielding numbers is that it's such a small sample size. He has less than 300 innings played in the OF. I mean, just one season is a small sample size when it comes to fielding stats. Regardless, he has a career 34.5 UZR/150. 7.4 of that comes from his arm, 26.4 comes from his range, and 0.7 comes from preventing errors. Now that range will come down a lot, but his arm and error should rate out about the same.

 

So now we have Brett Carroll's projected offensive line (.725 OPS) and his projected defensive line (+14 runs).

 

The problem ofcoarse being the insert Fielding Stats are far from perfect statement here. They only show probably 30-50% of the picture. It's by no means definitive. However it's a lot better than blindly grabbing at the dark.

 

His offense would be worth around -2 to -5 runs compared to the average player depending on just where exactly he falls. It's probably at about -3. With his defense, that means he's now at +11 runs. Take on the worth above a replacement level player (18.3) and positional adjustment (-6.5) and carroll would be worth 22.8 runs, or about 2.3 wins, over a replacement level player.

 

This is basically around the same worth of a .800 OPS neutral defenseive RFer, meaning his defense is worth nearly .100 OPS points.

 

By no means a star but still a good starter. And it does give us the ability of, moving CC to the IF, trading Hermida, ect without worrying about who'd start. It doesn't seem to me like BC will get that privledge but he would probably do well enough in that roll.

Yea, that is reasonable. Meaning he is a fantastic bench outfielder.

 

Given our situation, I wouldn't mind BC in there just because Bonifacio is that bad, but ideally he just starts 3 days a week and we figure something else out.

If it's ay the expense of boner, you do it. But it doesn't do our lineup a whole lot of good to take out hermida or coghlan for him and leaving boner.

If he's the equivalent of an .800 OPS neutral defensive RFer then he's our 2nd best OFer and should be playing every day.

Should be playing everyday at the expense of Bonifacio. Hermida in left, Carrol in right, and Coghlan at third.

Nny, how'd you do your math in the last paragraph? The 18.3 + 6.5 positional adjustment = 24.8. You have 22.8, but I'm not exactly sure how you got to that number anyway, so I could be way off......

Nny, how'd you do your math in the last paragraph? The 18.3 + 6.5 positional adjustment = 24.8. You have 22.8, but I'm not exactly sure how you got to that number anyway, so I could be way off......

 

 

it was -6.5 not +6.5

 

The equation was

 

11 (Amount of runs he'd create both offensively and defensively compared to the average player) + 18.3 (The amount of runs over a replacement level player (based on 20 runs over 600 PAs, and I was going off 550 PAs)) + -6.5 (Positional adjustment to better compare all players against each other. RF and LF is -7.5 over 635 PAs) = 22.8

Nny, how'd you do your math in the last paragraph? The 18.3 + 6.5 positional adjustment = 24.8. You have 22.8, but I'm not exactly sure how you got to that number anyway, so I could be way off......

 

 

it was -6.5 not +6.5

 

The equation was

 

11 (Amount of runs he'd create both offensively and defensively compared to the average player) + 18.3 (The amount of runs over a replacement level player (based on 20 runs over 600 PAs, and I was going off 550 PAs)) + -6.5 (Positional adjustment to better compare all players against each other. RF and LF is -7.5 over 635 PAs) = 22.8

 

:thumbup

If he's the equivalent of an .800 OPS neutral defensive RFer then he's our 2nd best OFer and should be playing every day.

 

 

Yeah. Major problem is that this is all real theory at the moment, with defensive run numbers, which is what makes it all the more iffy.

 

I think it's also worth noting that the Marlins are a FB staff, with the 8th worst GB% in the major. While JJ, Andrew, and Volstad are all good GB pitchers, Ricky is a horrendous FB pitcher and West has been aswell. And Badenhop and Lindstrom are the only GB pitchers out of our BP. Everybody else is either neutral or a FB pitcher. So you could argue OF defense is more important to us than the average team.

I like Carroll better than Hermida.

I like Carroll better than Hermida.

 

 

You like Carroll better than Hermida likes Carroll? I dunno, I heard those two have great chemistry.

I like Carroll better than Hermida.

 

 

You like Carroll better than Hermida likes Carroll? I dunno, I heard those two have great chemistry.

 

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL, I thought the same thing!

Should be playing everyday at the expense of Bonifacio. Hermida in left, Carrol in right, and Coghlan at third.

 

 

This. I don't like the platooning of Jerm, and I don't think that Carrol's bat would be as bad as Bonifacio.

it is time to face fact Jermey Hermida is not that good , I dont have a problem playing BC more

it is time to face fact Jermey Hermida is not that good , I dont have a problem playing BC more

 

 

 

Explain why? Is it because he's in a slump?

hmmmmmm.......seems like not that long ago I was vilified for saying Hermida sucks and carroll should be starting.......Lets fast forward about 3 weeks or so and what do you know, they are now platooning (which by the way indicates the fact that Hermida sucks) and Caroll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outplaying that scrub Hermida. Gonna have to say I look like the early winner on that one. Score: jerus9703 and the rest of the Hermida realists- 1 All of you bias marlin fans who cant objectively analyze marlins players (Hermida supporters)- 0

hmmmmmm.......seems like not that long ago I was vilified for saying Hermida sucks and carroll should be starting.......Lets fast forward about 3 weeks or so and what do you know, they are now platooning (which by the way indicates the fact that Hermida sucks) and Caroll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outplaying that scrub Hermida. Gonna have to say I look like the early winner on that one. Score: jerus9703 and the rest of the Hermida realists- 1 All of you bias marlin fans who cant objectively analyze marlins players (Hermida supporters)- 0

 

 

 

So, you've been on this board since July 24 2007. You only have 137 posts, and I'm guessins 136 of them are Hermida Sucks posts. Yea, you're like must be great. Searching the forums, looking for every opportunity to talk sh!t about Hermida. oooooo, exciting life.

 

Miller23: 1, jerus9703:0. BTW, you will never win. People like you never win.

hmmmmmm.......seems like not that long ago I was vilified for saying Hermida sucks and carroll should be starting.......Lets fast forward about 3 weeks or so and what do you know, they are now platooning (which by the way indicates the fact that Hermida sucks) and Caroll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outplaying that scrub Hermida. Gonna have to say I look like the early winner on that one. Score: jerus9703 and the rest of the Hermida realists- 1 All of you bias marlin fans who cant objectively analyze marlins players (Hermida supporters)- 0

 

 

 

So, you've been on this board since July 24 2007. You only have 137 posts, and I'm guessins 136 of them are Hermida Sucks posts. Yea, you're like must be great. Searching the forums, looking for every opportunity to talk sh!t about Hermida. oooooo, exciting life.

 

Miller23: 1, jerus9703:0. BTW, you will never win. People like you never win.

 

I still think Hermida is mediocre at best.

hmmmmmm.......seems like not that long ago I was vilified for saying Hermida sucks and carroll should be starting.......Lets fast forward about 3 weeks or so and what do you know, they are now platooning (which by the way indicates the fact that Hermida sucks) and Caroll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outplaying that scrub Hermida. Gonna have to say I look like the early winner on that one. Score: jerus9703 and the rest of the Hermida realists- 1 All of you bias marlin fans who cant objectively analyze marlins players (Hermida supporters)- 0

 

 

 

So, you've been on this board since July 24 2007. You only have 137 posts, and I'm guessins 136 of them are Hermida Sucks posts. Yea, you're like must be great. Searching the forums, looking for every opportunity to talk sh!t about Hermida. oooooo, exciting life.

 

Miller23: 1, jerus9703:0. BTW, you will never win. People like you never win.

 

I still think Hermida is mediocre at best.

 

I still feel Hermida is a 25 year old outfielder with potential to be very good.

I think platooning him with Carroll gives our team the best opporunity to win. Carroll's going bananas against LHP, but has a whopping .554 OPS against RHP. Hermida still has an .805 OPS against RHP, but has been quite atrocious against LHP.

 

So you platoon them. It doesn't mean Hermida sucks, it doesn't mean Brett Carroll deserves to start over him. It means exactly what it means, that you are trying to maximize the production you get out of that one spot in the field.

hmmmmmm.......seems like not that long ago I was vilified for saying Hermida sucks and carroll should be starting.......Lets fast forward about 3 weeks or so and what do you know, they are now platooning (which by the way indicates the fact that Hermida sucks) and Caroll is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outplaying that scrub Hermida. Gonna have to say I look like the early winner on that one. Score: jerus9703 and the rest of the Hermida realists- 1 All of you bias marlin fans who cant objectively analyze marlins players (Hermida supporters)- 0

 

 

There are no winners here except the Marlins. We are all vying for our team to succeed so calling yourself the "winner" in an online argument only makes you seem like a tool.

 

Just because Fredi is platooning Hermida with Carroll against LHP pitchers doesn't mean that Hermida sucks. That is a horrid argument. Fredi is trying to maximize his offensive production by getting the best out of a left/righty match up. Like when he puts Paulino in for Baker.

I think platooning him with Carroll gives our team the best opporunity to win. Carroll's going bananas against LHP, but has a whopping .554 OPS against RHP. Hermida still has an .805 OPS against RHP, but has been quite atrocious against LHP.

 

So you platoon them. It doesn't mean Hermida sucks, it doesn't mean Brett Carroll deserves to start over him. It means exactly what it means, that you are trying to maximize the production you get out of that one spot in the field.

 

This.

IS IT ME OR HERMIDA IS ALWAYS IN A SLUMP?

IS IT ME OR HERMIDA IS ALWAYS IN A SLUMP?

 

 

 

It's just you.

I'm asking because I don't know... are there options or are the Marlins in a position to send down Hermida to AAA ala Ricky Nolasco (whom it did wonders)?

 

 

Sun Sentinel on just this subject:

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/baseball/marlins/sfl-florida-marlins-notes-s07010sbjul01,0,348358.story