NFL Division Predictions

PitchingWinsGames · August 18, 2009

Yea, I'm expecting alot, too. If Cameron Wake and JT can rush the passer effectively, freeing up JP, watch out. I also read that CC might rush the passer a bit as well, so we might have a very, very dangerous pass rush this season, taking pressure off our secondary.

It's well known I'm not a Dolphin fan, but to be fair...their secondary improved, as well, with the draft.

I don't think they'll be bad this year, although I don't see them repeating what they did last year because...

1. New England is tougher this year...Tom Brady is still the man.

2. I think the Wildcat offense gets figured out, at some point.

I also think the AFC East might be the best division in football, as well. If it's not, it's 2nd to the NFC East.

See: Playoffs against Baltimore

Iowa · August 18, 2009

NFC

East: New York

North: Chicago

South: Carolina

West: Arizona

WC: Minnesota, Green Bay

AFC

East: New England

North: Pittsburgh

South: Indianapolis

West: San Diego

WC: Tennessee, Baltimore

I hate Green Bay and Minnesota more than cancer so its pains me to pick them. I just think they're better than the overhyped teams in the East

dim · August 18, 2009

The secondary did improve, but we still don't know yet. Sean Smith and Vontae Davis can be busts, and Eric Green is nothing special. Adding Gibril Wilson, though, was a fantastic move. I loved it.

AFC East isn't as tough as many think. The Bills, IMO, will struggle this season. I don't see them competeing. And I'm not scared of the Jets. No Receivers+No QB= Epic Fail. Their defense can be a Top 5 defense, but their Offense will doom them.

Sean Smith will not bust. I have seen games where he played at Utah, and he will be the starter. I wasn't a fan of drafting Davis, and he really struggled in the preseason, but that is what the preseason is for. To learn from mistakes. Good to see Smith get those two INT's, he'll be a beast. Wilson was a big upgrade, great veteran presence, and our backup is Jason Allen . God I hate Saban even more for drafting that POS player. Our defense was always good, but we added good pieces. We will see how good we really are considering we are playing the top offenses this year as opposed to the bottom offenses last year.

As for the AFC East, the Jets have a top 10 defense, Patriots have one of the best all around teams in the NFL, the Dolphins are defending champions and replaced all the pieces we lost, and the Bills...well they got T.O, their passing offense will be great, they have some very good RB's, but that O-Line is too inexperienced and will be the downfall of that team, as well as their sh*tty secondary.

I hope we can go at least 8-8 this season, I'd also like to see a little bit of Henne towards the end of the season if we start going downhill.

BTW Erick, the Wildcat offense was figured out after the Chargers game. We really didn't have the kind of success after that with the wildcat. Still, the addition of Pat White will make the wildcat better, and with the new outlook I think the wildcat offense will be more dangerous than ever with a proven passer running the wildcat along with Brown.

Anonymous · August 18, 2009

Dim, agree 100% about the Wildcat. This year, teams have to worry about the Dolphinx passing out of the Wildcat. And that should open things up for Ronnie Brown.

PitchingWinsGames · August 18, 2009

Dim, agree 100% about the Wildcat. This year, teams have to worry about the Dolphinx passing out of the Wildcat. And that should open things up for Ronnie Brown.

A passing QB doesn't dramatically change how the wildcat is defended. As a matter of fact, having a QB behind center actually turns it into a more conventional offense if you really think about it. In some sense, it just becomes a creative play action pass or run where the RB comes horizontally instead of vertically up the field.

I could go into any number of variants that could effectively work against the wildcat, but ultimately it just comes down to being an intelligent defense and having intelligent defensive players. And, if you're playing a terrible defensive team, chances are you could beat them anyways.

And, by having Pat White behind Center, you're moving Ronnie Brown into the flex slot, or to that wing/h-back position. I think that the "biggest" change will be the addition of screen passes, TE curls, the horizontal PA draws the defense right, O-line leaks left and creates a bubble screen.

Anonymous · August 19, 2009

PWG, the one advantage Miami has now is, White will replace Pennington. Ronnie Brown is still going to control the WC, but now, we have another weapon, which is White.

dim · August 19, 2009

PWG, the one advantage Miami has now is, White will replace Pennington. Ronnie Brown is still going to control the WC, but now, we have another weapon, which is White.

exactly. Remember last year when Brown was in the Wildcat, Pennington went out as a WR, basically nobody had to cover him. When White is out at the WR slot during the Wildcat, they have to watch out for him as he is a good WR, at that slot you could also put White in motion. You could put Cobbs in motion. You could pass the ball to White with Brown, you can have Brown throw it to any of the number of WR's. You can have White in motion, catch the ball in motion, and throw to one of the WR's or run it down the sideline. There are so many options now that you add White to the equation. I don't see how it could be a negative in any sort of way. I mean the playbook just got that much bigger.

PitchingWinsGames · August 19, 2009

PWG, the one advantage Miami has now is, White will replace Pennington. Ronnie Brown is still going to control the WC, but now, we have another weapon, which is White.

That's not as big an advantage as you seem to think in the scheme of my argument of a defense staying at home. So, if you're saying that White takes the slot receiver position, then you cover the play like a HB pass... if White takes the flanker position, you just don't leave him alone.

PitchingWinsGames · August 19, 2009

PWG, the one advantage Miami has now is, White will replace Pennington. Ronnie Brown is still going to control the WC, but now, we have another weapon, which is White.

exactly. Remember last year when Brown was in the Wildcat, Pennington went out as a WR, basically nobody had to cover him. When White is out at the WR slot during the Wildcat, they have to watch out for him as he is a good WR, at that slot you could also put White in motion. You could put Cobbs in motion. You could pass the ball to White with Brown, you can have Brown throw it to any of the number of WR's. You can have White in motion, catch the ball in motion, and throw to one of the WR's or run it down the sideline. There are so many options now that you add White to the equation. I don't see how it could be a negative in any sort of way. I mean the playbook just got that much bigger.

It's the same concept. Yes, it's "depth" in the playbook... but all it is is a bunch of moving parts, ultimately it's either a run or pass... there are only so many eligible players that need to be covered and the only thing you need to do as a defense is not over pursue and cover your assignments.

The biggest addition is going to be the implementation of screen passes from White motioning from the slot... but I can say it a thousand times, it's just a bunch of moving parts, the defense only burns itself when it tries to do too much.

dim · August 19, 2009

I believe that White gives teams more things to look for during the wildcat offense. For example, you have White in the shotgun with Cobbs in motion. You can hand it off to Cobbs, you can run it up the middle with White (aka Ronnie Brown like), you could have him cut to the outside look for a WR and if he can't run it down the sideline, or you could have him stay in the pocket and look for a receiver. I mean I don't get your idea of it just being "moving parts". It's more of a two way look to it. When Ronnie Brown was running the wildcat, whenever teams saw him doing it, they just stacked the box because they knew he was most likely running it up the middle, and if he wasn't they could just have the CB run down with Cobbs/Williams who are in motion. Now with White, you could have him at the WR slot catching slants from Pennington, you could have him at the WR slot in motion with Brown in the wildcat, you could have White running the wildcat with Brown/Williams/Cobbs all at the WR slots waiting to run in motion. Hell you could even put in a decoy during that kind of play like Pennington, and when they least expect it have him in motion for a reverse and throw (aka like a flea flicker, what they did last season with Cobbs against I believe the Texans).

Overall, it adds so many aspects to the offense, it isn't just moving parts, it's a totally different outlook to the offense and makes them 10X more dangerous than they were in the wildcat last year.

PitchingWinsGames · August 19, 2009

I believe that White gives teams more things to look for during the wildcat offense. For example, you have White in the shotgun with Cobbs in motion. You can hand it off to Cobbs, you can run it up the middle with White (aka Ronnie Brown like), you could have him cut to the outside look for a WR and if he can't run it down the sideline, or you could have him stay in the pocket and look for a receiver. I mean I don't get your idea of it just being "moving parts". It's more of a two way look to it. When Ronnie Brown was running the wildcat, whenever teams saw him doing it, they just stacked the box because they knew he was most likely running it up the middle, and if he wasn't they could just have the CB run down with Cobbs/Williams who are in motion. Now with White, you could have him at the WR slot catching slants from Pennington, you could have him at the WR slot in motion with Brown in the wildcat, you could have White running the wildcat with Brown/Williams/Cobbs all at the WR slots waiting to run in motion. Hell you could even put in a decoy during that kind of play like Pennington, and when they least expect it have him in motion for a reverse and throw (aka like a flea flicker, what they did last season with Cobbs against I believe the Texans).

Overall, it adds so many aspects to the offense, it isn't just moving parts, it's a totally different outlook to the offense and makes them 10X more dangerous than they were in the wildcat last year.

You're proving my point with your examples. I don't think you realize it.

The wildcat, off the snap, allows 3 immediate possibilities, right? Run up the middle, sweep to the strong side or a pass.

The I-Formation, off the snap, allows three immediate possibilities, right? Run up the middle, sweep to either side, or a pass.

The Shotgun Split Back formation allows three immediate possibilities, right? Handoff to either side, pass or quick dump to either back (pseudo toss).

My point being, the difference between the wildcat and the two more conventional formations is that there is a slot receiver moving across the backfield (most of the time, anyways), hence moving parts. But after the snap of the ball, it really just becomes any other play. It's either a run, or a pass and then it's just playing your assignments. The primary usefulness of the wildcat is how it uses misdirection. Disciplined defenses destroy that nonsense... most of the stuff you're suggesting takes time to develop, takes a LOT of time.

I don't want to sit here and type up a thousand different examples, but rather generically...

Dolphins come out in the Wildcat... a disciplined defense, knowing their responsibilities, does the following:

Defensive line uses a contain scheme to keep the OTs from gaining outside leverage, allowing a LB to pursue the slot-man who comes across, who, if taken by the FB or TE, is additionally pursued by the safety on that side, who has long since identified the play. Defensive tackle(s) (Or a MLB in a 3-4) maintains middle pressure so that a run up the middle isn't easily available. Remaining OLB does a spy/flat zone. In this example, my safeties are in cover 2, nothing goes over the top, they can also do a cover 3 depending on the personnel on the field. One CB covers the outside WR, and the other (if not in cover 3) plays a mid-zone to cover a TE/FB crossing the field.

That defensive concept is extremely simple and can competently be employed from a base defense. Why? Because it's a lesson in gap-assignment. So long as everyone understands their responsibilities, the Wildcat becomes a trips over formation with a scrambling QB.

MrMarlinPride · August 19, 2009

Wow Good post Pitchy!

So basically if the defense has there coverage and zones right then the Wildcat is what Micheal Vick did when he was a Falcon in a shotgun or duel back formation?

All the options to either one of the 2 backs, scramble or pass to the WR or TE.

Anonymous · August 19, 2009

PWG, everything you say is true, and you do have a point. As long as everyone understands their assignments, the WC can be stopped. That is what Baltimore did last seaoson.

But, this season, it will be harder to understand your assignments against Miami. We have more weapons now.

We are going to confuse the defense alot more now. We have more plays into the WC playbook now.

Another thing the WC does is it forces teams to prepare for it, giving them less time to prepare for other things.

PitchingWinsGames · August 19, 2009

PWG, everything you say is true, and you do have a point. As long as everyone understands their assignments, the WC can be stopped. That is what Baltimore did last seaoson.

But, this season, it will be harder to understand your assignments against Miami. We have more weapons now.

We are going to confuse the defense alot more now. We have more plays into the WC playbook now.

Another thing the WC does is it forces teams to prepare for it, giving them less time to prepare for other things.

See, the thing is, the additional weapon still plays into a generic wildcat defense. It's very obvious when the offense is in Wildcat formation and, yes, you're right, having to prepare for it is probably the greatest effect of the wildcat, but the depth of plays is still based on 3 primary plays: Sweep to the slot, run up the middle (counter or lead) and PA pass. If you can cover those three, you can cover the wildcat, because everything else is just a different iteration of one of those.

The defenses will only be as confused as they allow themselves to be, and, with more and more of the league copycatting (It's a copycat league, afterall) preparing for the wildcat is a necessity, meaning it will catch fewer teams off guard.

Just to clarify, I'm not trying to say the wildcat isn't useful, I'm not trying to say it's bad by any means, what I AM saying though, is that it's no different than adding any other formation to a playbook, it's just a different way of doing the same things, just like in baseball... a changeup is a different way of throwing the same baseball across the same plate, it's just a different look.

HB slam from the I formation, Strong I, Weak I, Singleback, Singleback trips, etc etc etc is all the same play, just a different look, and it's nothing super new. Like, I remember during the Jets/Steelers playoff game in 05, Hines Ward was in the backfield in Shotgun with Roethlisberger, Randle El swept across at the snap, took the snap and threw it to Ward for the score.

Anonymous · August 19, 2009

Oh, then I agree. WC is just a fancier way of doing things. Preparing for it and deception is it's biggest advantage.

But, I don't think it can be a base offense. It's a formation you use 5-8 times a game.

MrMarlinPride · August 19, 2009