I really want JJ around for a few more years....

 

 

 

We all do, he is going to be an all star each year for years to come most likely.

 

But Loria really restricts us. If we had a $60 million payroll to work with, we could easily be one of the best teams in baseball, and that would still be one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. It's becoming pretty embarrassing at this point. This kind of spending is a big reason why we have only been to the playoffs twice in our history (granted both times we won the championship).

 

I was EXTREMELY angry after the Cabrera trade, even after I expected it to happen. I expect the same kind of feeling if they trade JJ, regardless of whether it is in "our best interests". We are heading into a new stadium. If we go into a new stadium, we need at the least two things,

 

1. A superstar pitcher

2. A superstar hitter

 

We have Hanley for the new stadium, we need JJ. We don't have any pitcher of his caliber on the team or getting ready in the minors. Ricky has the capability, but he is too inconsistant to be relied upon. We need JJ, if we don't have him, this franchise may be going in the wrong direction for the next few years after he goes to free agency.

 

It's extremely frustrating to see great players go left and right because of our payroll restrictions, we prepare these great players as youngers and give most of them off in their prime to larger market teams, it takes a toll on ya.

 

That's my rant for the day. I understand it is very early in negotations and may in fact be a ploy by the agent, but it just seems like Loria is in a sense giving a giant middle finger to our (regardless of size) fanbase. You know, weather is not the only reason fans don't go to games. We need to consistantly win, to make the playoffs in back to back years at some point. A new stadium will not change a cheap ownership, things probably aren't going to change at all no matter how much you hope. Hanley will be here, Stanton will probably be here soon, outside of that nothing is set in stone, which makes it hard on many fans to keep watching these players, just to see them traded off to larger market teams.

 

Seems the marlins motto for years has been "we'll be great in 3 years". At some point we can't keep on waiting for 3 years, we said that in 2006, we've seen progress. We aren't going to get better trading off key players like JJ. I understand if we cannot get a deal done, we need to maximize his value, but the players we get, is it that when they get good, are we going to trade those guys off during their prime because we can't pay their larger contracts? It seems to be a never ending cycle with Loria. Please, please just get something done at some point. To be this stubborn is stupid, especially when dealing with a player of JJ's caliber. He's injury prone, but I think the risk of adding the 4th year is well worth the reward. Give him that upscale contract, it'll be a f*cking bargain, even if he does regress at some point. Look around the league, guys like Gil Meche are getting paid the kind of money JJ is asking for. Just do the right thing, and just show you care about the fans for once, Loria.

 

Shortened version- Loria annoys us, JJ is awesome, WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

Honestly, JJ is a great starting pitcher, but does he really deserve Zack Greinke money? Greinke has logged 400 more major league innings than JJ, and hasn't had a major pitching arm operation. You can't fault the FO for not offering a longer contract to a guy who has yet to prove he can pitch two full seasons back to back.

Honestly, JJ is a great starting pitcher, but does he really deserve Zack Greinke money? Greinke has logged 400 more major league innings than JJ, and hasn't had a major pitching arm operation. You can't fault the FO for not offering a longer contract to a guy who has yet to prove he can pitch two full seasons back to back.

 

Greinke pitched 178 innings more than Johnson at the time of the contract. i.e., Johnson didn't pitch in 2007 and half of 2008. It's nowhere near 400.

 

And yes, Johnson deserves it. He is a horse and we are going to regret getting rid of him more than Cabrera because unlike Miguel, we can afford Josh Johnson right now. If JJ is healthy for 2 1/2 years on a hypothetical 4/$40 contract, we've made our investment back. I find this likely.

 

What Johnson doesn't deserve, is AJ Burnett and soon to be John Lackey money. THAT, is to much. But "Greinke money" is cheap.

Let's assume that the Marlins and JJ agree to the one year deal and the season commences. In the middle of the season can the FO then agree to a long-term contract for the following season? Can negotiations and deals still be realized at that time? I know Hanley's contract was signed during the '08 season.

Greinke pitched 178 innings more than Johnson at the time of the contract. i.e., Johnson didn't pitch in 2007 and half of 2008. It's nowhere near 400.

 

And yes, Johnson deserves it. He is a horse and we are going to regret getting rid of him more than Cabrera because unlike Miguel, we can afford Josh Johnson right now. If JJ is healthy for 2 1/2 years on a hypothetical 4/$40 contract, we've made our investment back. I find this likely.

 

What Johnson doesn't deserve, is AJ Burnett and soon to be John Lackey money. THAT, is to much. But "Greinke money" is cheap.

 

 

 

I see what you're saying now. I was a bit confused with the way you worded it. At the time Greinke was signed to his deal in January of '09, he had logged 658 major league innings. At the time JJ was presented with his contract, he had logged 481 major league innings.

 

However, I don't agree with the bold statement above. You're telling me that if JJ had his 4/$40 contract starting in 2006, his first extended stint of major league playing time, and spanning the '07, '08, and '09 seasons, he's been worth $40 million to this organization? Because in that four season span from '06-'09, that's basically what we got out of him, 2 1/2 seasons for $40 million. You're crazy. $40 million divided by 2.5 years that he actually pitched for us over the course of the 4 year contract comes out to $16 million a year for the actual time he pitched. He was good in '06, but was he worth $16 million? How about this past season? Was he worth $16 million? Was he worth $8 million in the second half of the '08 season?

 

Burnett's first contract was 5/$55 for $11 mil. per year. He pitched the equivalent of 2.5 years of the 3 years under that contract with the Blue Jays, meaning that he made approximately $13.2 million per year he actually pitched.

 

Here's an article I dug up that I had read when the Yankees were pursuing CC regarding long-term deals for pitchers. There are some interesting statistics halfway through the column.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/11/05/ccsabathia.longtermdeals/index.html

I have to ask....After the first year of a players 4 year contract is over can the team then renegotiate the policy with the insurance company to then cover the final 3 years?

 

 

I don't know, but I doubt it.

 

Even though in a twice-removed life I sold a lot of both individual and group life, health and disability coverage, nothing in that universe correlates in any way to how long-term sports disability contracts for large amounts are underwritten. This is very esoteric stuff. Lloyd's of London type stuff. Not many carriers in the market, so the possibilities for winks and nods between carriers are great.

 

I found a lot of articles describing A-Rod's and other big contracts, but the insurance details were few. 80% maximum coverage and sometime in the last 10 years or so nobody wanted to write anything longer than the first 3 years, period, end of story. 12% or so of the insured amount as the premium.

 

Now, usually almost anything is negotiable when it comes to what are one-of-a-kind insurance contracts, so who knows? What you suggest, some sort of renewable coverage, should be possible but doesn't seem to be. My guess would be it's because of adverse selection risk, as in the team has much better information than the insurer can ever hope to get.

 

If I were an insurer writing this sort of coverage, I would be open to writing coverage for X years that is then re-evaluated at the end of year X in light of how what (if anything) happened in the first X years should affect premiums for the next one or two or X or however many years. There really should be any number of possibilities, but for whatever reason(s) that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

It's all a bit of a mystery and it's unclear how it may affect any given owner's decisions regarding long-term contracts.

 

I appreciate the answer. But now I wonder if it's ever been done, or if there is even a way to check if it's ever been done. I could see where it would fall under confidentiality and the true terms and/or renegotiations would not be open to public scrutiny.

 

But it seems to me with those winks and nods that you referred to may include something like after x amount of years on the original policy it could be renegotiated at a much higher % of the insured amount for the premium. Something both parties may balk at disclosing.

 

Fairly irrelevant in any case. Just an interesting tidbit to speculate on.

Could just be agent talk, I think them breaking off talks 4 months before ST is silly.

 

 

Yep. The agent knows the Marlins don't talk contracts through the media so he is taking advantage of that. Only his side of the story is going to be made public. He is trying to get the public to turn against the team in his favor, to the point of saying this will be JJ's last year here. This could backfire big time, and I hope it does. This guy is giving agents a bad name.

 

Also, why is this 3yr/$32mil thing being taken so seriously here? The team dosen't disclose contract talks so where did these numbers come from? The PBP just says they were believed to be offering that. So who made up those numbers?

 

I think he still signs before Opening Day. According to his agent it's just the years involved? Fine. Sign him to 4, make it heavily back laden, and trade him after 3 or renegotiate it then.

First of all, the dollar amount you posted is off by $10 million. I'm not sure if that was a typo on your part or you misread the article, but this is probably worth mentioning. If the Marlins truly don't want to go beyond 3/$22M, then I honestly don't see how a deal gets done. Not only is the fourth year not there, but the dollar amount is much lower than it needs to be. They are offering him $7.33M per when it should be closer to $10M-$11M per. Is there a chance he signs for less than that? I suppose, but 4/$30 would be one hell of a bargain and his agent surely knows he could do better on the open market or negotiations with another team, if traded.

 

Secondly, I don't think anyone here is quoting that figure as fact. It's been made available, whether accurate or not, so it warrants some discussion. As I've posted earlier, based upon the manner in which the Marlins have done business in the past, it is not outrageous to assume that the Marlins would be reluctant to offer a fourth year here.

 

Typo. Sorry. What's worse is that I even reread it before I posted it.

Really, I don't understand why there's so much pressure on the Marlins to get a long-term deal done with Johnson. If I was JJ, I would take whatever security blanket the team would offer me and run with it. From the FO's point of view, if they don't get a deal done this offseason, JJ just has to prove all over again in the '10 season that he's worthy of some team offering him a long term deal, whether it be the Marlins or his suitors once he hits free agency. If JJ underperforms next year, the Marlins look like geniuses for avoiding the long-term deal with a pitcher who didn't live up to expectations. If JJ is lights out once again, the Marlins are still paying a "fair" market value for an elite pitcher through arbitration, and JJ probably earned what he was making. Plus, if he does maintain his high level of performance, there will always be a demand for him on the trade market, no matter how much money he's making through arbitration.

 

It all boils down to JJ. Does he want to prove year after year that he's the caliber of pitcher that everyone thinks he is and chance losing his value on the open market if he underperforms or has a recurring arm injury, or would he prefer to take a lesser amount of money now for the security of the 3 year deal?

 

 

I rather disagree with the last paragraph because I would hope every pitcher wants to go out there evry time proving his worth.

 

But the first paragragh is something I've been thinking about. The team shouldn't be in a hurry. And for that matter, neither should JJ. Season ticket sales are up this year, and projected to be much higher in 2011 because of folks buying to secure seating for 2012, means more $$$ for the team to spend in 2011. May make for a better contract for JJ then. And bottom line is that we do have control over him for the next two seasons. Worse case scenario I see would be two more one year contracts and trade him for a king's ransom near the trade deadline in 2011. Right now he is our ace. That dosen't mean things won't start clicking for a couple other guys by then and they become a higher commodity than JJ will be at that time.

 

It's a gamble if you do (injury, dead arm, teams really figuring him out, etc...), and a gamble if you don't (can get him cheaper now than a year or two down the road). Doing it now just to save $$$ on a couple years that we should be pretty much middle of the road in payroll and/or just to appease the fans who mostly don't go to the games now anyway wouldn't make much sense.

if there is even a way to check if it's ever been done

 

Unfortunately, not as they're private contracts. The only details available are those tidbits that reporters have picked up here and there and written about.

I would trade Johnson right now, while his value is highest. He should bring back about three good pitching prospects and maybe even a position player.

Situation 1: We sign JJ long term to a 4 year contract

Situation 2: We trade him THIS offseason

 

Those are the only 2 things the FO should do. Anything else would be a waste of money and potential prospects.

Let's assume that the Marlins and JJ agree to the one year deal and the season commences. In the middle of the season can the FO then agree to a long-term contract for the following season? Can negotiations and deals still be realized at that time? I know Hanley's contract was signed during the '08 season.

 

Yes. They can renegotiate at anytime.

 

You're telling me that if JJ had his 4/$40 contract starting in 2006, his first extended stint of major league playing time, and spanning the '07, '08, and '09 seasons, he's been worth $40 million to this organization? Because in that four season span from '06-'09, that's basically what we got out of him, 2 1/2 seasons for $40 million. You're crazy. $40 million divided by 2.5 years that he actually pitched for us over the course of the 4 year contract comes out to $16 million a year for the actual time he pitched.

 

 

No, if he had that contract now for 2010-2013. Getting a pitcher like him in free agency would be atleast $16 million dollars this offseason. Thus, making 2 1/2 healthy seasons $40 million in value. And this is very roundball. I'm just saying. $40 million is a STEAL for 4 years. We've been blessed with this pitcher and we don't want to take advantage of it. It's idiotic.

Let's assume that the Marlins and JJ agree to the one year deal and the season commences. In the middle of the season can the FO then agree to a long-term contract for the following season? Can negotiations and deals still be realized at that time? I know Hanley's contract was signed during the '08 season.

 

Sure they could but The Marlins would have to sweeten the pot a heck of alot more...If they are balking at numbers now, its not gonna get any easier later. it actually almost becomes an improbability therefore the club really is a position of being obligated to make a trade. This will then diminish the leverage Beinfest would have in negotiating any kind of transaction. If JJ has a monster season the only thing it does is minimize the bidders in a trade situation because less teams can afford to take on a salary he would then demand. That would restrict the parameters of offers the Marlins would receive...Hey Take It Or Leave It!

Greinke pitched 178 innings more than Johnson at the time of the contract. i.e., Johnson didn't pitch in 2007 and half of 2008. It's nowhere near 400.

 

And yes, Johnson deserves it. He is a horse and we are going to regret getting rid of him more than Cabrera because unlike Miguel, we can afford Josh Johnson right now. If JJ is healthy for 2 1/2 years on a hypothetical 4/$40 contract, we've made our investment back. I find this likely.

 

What Johnson doesn't deserve, is AJ Burnett and soon to be John Lackey money. THAT, is to much. But "Greinke money" is cheap.

 

 

 

I see what you're saying now. I was a bit confused with the way you worded it. At the time Greinke was signed to his deal in January of '09, he had logged 658 major league innings. At the time JJ was presented with his contract, he had logged 481 major league innings.

 

However, I don't agree with the bold statement above. You're telling me that if JJ had his 4/$40 contract starting in 2006, his first extended stint of major league playing time, and spanning the '07, '08, and '09 seasons, he's been worth $40 million to this organization? Because in that four season span from '06-'09, that's basically what we got out of him, 2 1/2 seasons for $40 million. You're crazy. $40 million divided by 2.5 years that he actually pitched for us over the course of the 4 year contract comes out to $16 million a year for the actual time he pitched. He was good in '06, but was he worth $16 million? How about this past season? Was he worth $16 million? Was he worth $8 million in the second half of the '08 season?

 

Burnett's first contract was 5/$55 for $11 mil. per year. He pitched the equivalent of 2.5 years of the 3 years under that contract with the Blue Jays, meaning that he made approximately $13.2 million per year he actually pitched.

 

Here's an article I dug up that I had read when the Yankees were pursuing CC regarding long-term deals for pitchers. There are some interesting statistics halfway through the column.

 

http://sportsillustr...eals/index.html

 

 

Going by Fangraphs, Johnson has actually been worth $43.7 million to us from '06-'09, mainly because he was worth over $24 million last season. Since he did that in around 2.5 years; 2.5 x 1.6 = 4, 43.7 x 1.6 = 70. So, going by that, if Johnson would have been able to pitch all four years from '06-'09, he would have been worth around $70 million to us. Not to mention, Johnson is just going into the prime of his career where he should be able to pitch even better than he has the past four years, so for all we know he could be worth $80 or 90 million to Marlins from '10-'13 if we lock him up now. That's why a 4/40 contract would be considered a steal, possibly even if he does get injured again within that span.

Letting Johnson play out his final two years here and getting draft picks in return "could" be a cost benefit decision the team "may" decide to live with. (Nowhere am I saying they should do this but to ignore why they might do this is folly.)

 

Where else can you get a pitcher of JJ's abilities for $4 million in 2010 and probably $6-7-8 million in 2011 with absolutely zero exposure? The answer pretty much is nowhere. In fact, especially in 2010 it makes payroll that much more manageable not having to shell out a larger sum for him and you'll still roll him out there every five days and get your 230-250 innings. A point was made above that Johnson has still not shown he can pitch back to back complete seasons and it's a valid one, it is perhaps smarter in the Marlins situation to wait.

 

This is much more complex than just "do it", we have no idea what is holding the Marlins back on that fourth year or if in fact any of what comes out of Sosnick's mouth is true. All we know right now is that his story has changed about twenty times as he tries to do some damage control after his initial media outbursts full of demands and threats involving just not Johnson but presumably Nolasco as well. Must be nice for Ricky to know he's nothing more than a pawn in the game Sosnick's running for his "important" client.

Going by Fangraphs, Johnson has actually been worth $43.7 million to us from '06-'09, mainly because he was worth over $24 million last season. Since he did that in around 2.5 years; 2.5 x 1.6 = 4, 43.7 x 1.6 = 70. So, going by that, if Johnson would have been able to pitch all four years from '06-'09, he would have been worth around $70 million to us. Not to mention, Johnson is just going into the prime of his career where he should be able to pitch even better than he has the past four years, so for all we know he could be worth $80 or 90 million to Marlins from '10-'13 if we lock him up now. That's why a 4/40 contract would be considered a steal, possibly even if he does get injured again within that span.

 

 

I was looking for these stats. Glad you found them. True, he was worth a lot of money by those statistics, but he wasn't costing $10 million a year, either. Here are his year by year values during that time:

2006: $9.3 million

2007:$700k

2008:$9.0 million

2009:$24.6 million

 

Now, imagine that same level of performance over his next four years, during his 4/$40 contract. That means that if he was worth $9.3 in his first year, minus the $10 million he's owed, his net value is a negative $700k. In '07 we would have lost $9.3 million on him. In '08 we would have lost $1 million on him, and in '09 we would have benefitted $14.6 million. Total net value over the course of that contract would still have been a positive $3.6 million, but he actually would have only been worth his salary 1 out of the 4 years.

So we trade him for mega prospects. I don't really like the idea of signing starters to very long contracts either.

 

 

You mean like Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin?

Going by Fangraphs, Johnson has actually been worth $43.7 million to us from '06-'09, mainly because he was worth over $24 million last season. Since he did that in around 2.5 years; 2.5 x 1.6 = 4, 43.7 x 1.6 = 70. So, going by that, if Johnson would have been able to pitch all four years from '06-'09, he would have been worth around $70 million to us. Not to mention, Johnson is just going into the prime of his career where he should be able to pitch even better than he has the past four years, so for all we know he could be worth $80 or 90 million to Marlins from '10-'13 if we lock him up now. That's why a 4/40 contract would be considered a steal, possibly even if he does get injured again within that span.

 

 

I was looking for these stats. Glad you found them. True, he was worth a lot of money by those statistics, but he wasn't costing $10 million a year, either. Here are his year by year values during that time:

2006: $9.3 million

2007:$700k

2008:$9.0 million

2009:$24.6 million

 

Now, imagine that same level of performance over his next four years, during his 4/$40 contract. That means that if he was worth $9.3 in his first year, minus the $10 million he's owed, his net value is a negative $700k. In '07 we would have lost $9.3 million on him. In '08 we would have lost $1 million on him, and in '09 we would have benefitted $14.6 million. Total net value over the course of that contract would still have been a positive $3.6 million, but he actually would have only been worth his salary 1 out of the 4 years.

 

 

That's all assuming he is going to get injured again though. There is a decent chance that happens since he has had troubles with his shoulder in the past, but no one can guess what is going to happen in the future. Also, as I said before, Johnson is going to be 26 going into next season, and 26-29 are your prime years, unlike 22-25.

Did anyone hear the XM Radio interview with Fredi, where he basically said that the FO should sign Johnson? I was surprised he was that candid.

Did anyone hear the XM Radio interview with Fredi, where he basically said that the FO should sign Johnson? I was surprised he was that candid.

 

 

Fredi not blindly being the FO's lackey? He better start packing his bags now because that kind of stuff just isn't tolerated in Miami. We're perfectly content to trade all the players who won't take well below market deals and be mediocre for the foreseeable future! Any manager who won't conform to this ideology can go ahead and wait until managerial jobs open up with better MLB franchises, like the Yankees.

Like 03 has said, this could just be negotiating posturing. Or maybe it's wishful thinking that I hope this is negotiating posture. You keep saying no, no, no, no, and then boom you get him for 4/$39 (right above Greinke) as Sosnick finally "gives in" to getting "slot" and not "a few million bucks above slot." What's Sosnick going to do? Take his personal spite ahead of client interests? Hell no. But it should make an interesting Nolasco arbitration at least.

 

I really just cannot imagine we don't sign him despite all of this shenanigans. It's just insane not to for that price over a 4 year deal. And it's going to look even sillier when dudes like Pineiro and Marquis sign 3/$27-33 year deals pretty soon. Plus, I think the fan backlash would be out of control. Even worse than when Uggla goes in the next few weeks, because Johnson is younger, better, cheaper, and more important longterm. They are going to have to balance out moving Uggla by signing someone else longterm to show this new stadium is doing something.

Believe it or not I agree 100% with you on this one Lou. The Marlins better lock up Johnson because if he continues to excel they will have to dump him before he even gets to free agency. It was stupid for them not to sign Cabrera to a long term deal and they shouldn't want to play poker with Johnson in arbitration. The Marlins should spend some money for the future other then what they have committed to Ramirez or why did the taxpayers give them a new stadium.

Josh Johnson for J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek?

Josh Johnson for J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek?

 

 

 

They wouldn't even give up two of those three for Roy Halladay, why would they change their mind to get JJ?

Cabrera could not have been signed here under almost any circumstances, not without a stadium and heaps of positive cashflow. In fact look at the timelines of Cabrera and the stadium situation. Those were some of the most precarious times in the franchise's recent history. Two years before he was eventually traded he espoused the position that whether it was a year, two, three away he was going to be very very rich and so it didn't matter to him, when or from who but it was coming his way and he knew it. The truth is there are probably less than a handful of teams give or take who could afford the deal he got, and he was moved two seasons before free agency. Wow. Bringing up Cabrera as a woulda-shoulda is just plain ridiculous.

 

As for Johnson, as I said all we know is one side of things and even that seems to change by the hour. JJ's agent is a loose cannon out to make a name for himself at the organization's expense and the sooner the Marlins acquit him of the thought he's driving this bus the sooner serious negotiations can take place. By his own admission his conversations with the front office have been scant and all he's succeeded in doing so far is get the FO to dig their heals in and play a waiting game. Meanwhile they have a true ace for the next two years at pennies on the dollar and when people ask JJ why he's making chump change in 2010 eventually he'll come to realize it's his representation that is an impediment to the wealth he and his family look forward to enjoying, not the team he's playing for.

 

Time may prove me wrong but I suspect that if things go nowhere the Marlins play out the string with the guy. Too bad, I mean really, this could have been done by now or at least a good way towards completion. All JJ's side had to do to get that fourth year was ask the Marlins what they would need (performance-wise)to see in the second and third years to trigger an option for the fourth and everyone walks away with their pride and JJ with a pocketful of cash. This kind of grandstanding (some of those first comments from Sosnick were like the rants of a madman), one has to assume JJ is a bright fellow and will seek advice elsewhere among his advisors even if Sosnick's name winds up on the contract cooler heads will prevail.

 

It's just a shame to watch this unfolding.