I mean, it's super early. I think it's expected that the Marlins start off negotiations in the neighborhood of Greinke's contract, so this seems entirely reasonable to me. Let them end up at 4/40, and everyone can be happy (it would seem).

 

 

that's what i think the deal will end up being

3:19pm: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports say Johnson would accept a four-year, $42MM extension, but the Marlins offered three years and $23MM. It seems to me that both the Marlins and Johnson's agent Matt Sosnick are using Zack Greinke's deal as a baseline. The writers note that Johnson and Felix Hernandez have some similarities, but Felix might require four years and $40-50MM to extend.

 

Hmm. The Marlins are offering basically $7.5 mil a year for 3 years, and Johnson wants $10.5 mil/year for four years? I don't like that big gap there, unless this is a very early stage in negotiations.

 

the big difference is because of arbitration. The one year that's not on "our" offer is a free agent year. If we assume, oh, 14m for that one year, JJ would be looking for 3 years/28m.

 

5m over 3 years is a pretty big gap still though

 

My assumption is they want something like

 

5+8+14.5+14.5 = 42m

 

and we're offering something like

4+7+12 = 23m

 

so adding that 4th year at the same rate as the third year would put us at 4 years/35m, or 7 mil off

 

Whats' right dab in the middle between the two offers?

 

4 years/38 mil, aka Greinke's contract, lol

Yea it's going to be roundball.

 

I'm thinking more like

 

2010 - 4.5

2011 - 8

2012 - 12.5

2013 - $14 million - Automatically vests at 200 innings in 2012, or 360 combined 2011-2012, Club Option regardless, Buyout $2

 

3/$27

4/$39

 

If he's healthy, he beats Greinke. If not, he has $27 million dollars and free agency to prove himself on a 1 year deal before getting another big deal. Better than a $5 million arbitration tender cause if you're going to get hurt, the rest goes poof. Marlins end up guaranteeing more than they want too, but they get the vesting requirement and realistic buyout in return.

 

And for perspective, looked up some older contracts

 

Beckett got 3/$30 (more up front that JJ is in the above however), or 4/$42 with option. And another Sosnick client, Dontrelle, got 3/$29 for years 5-6-7. Dontrelle was also a Super 2, so he had a greater position of power than JJ as well. Which means, in a vacuum, on a three year deal JJ should be below Dontrelle (Dontrelle had a better career to this point with those two massive years and ROY). So yea, I like being $26-28 guaranteed on the first 3 years, and then getting over Greinke on the fourth with a health vesting/club option regardless. Any sort of combination like that should get it done.

it be mistake to trade him he our key to pitching staff marlins need make deal now donot wait untill contect end

Marlins To Discuss Extension With Josh Johnson

By Luke Adams [January 10 at 10:07am CST]The Florida Marlins plan to talk to agent Matt Sosnick this week regarding a contract extension for Josh Johnson, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

 

Last month, we recapped the progress, or lack thereof, that the Marlins have made in their attempt to lock up their ace to a long-term deal. At that point, Sosnick was still optimistic about the chances of Johnson remaining in Florida for the foreseeable future. Frisaro notes that, as we previously heard, a key factor in the negotiations is whether or not Florida will guarantee Johnson a fourth year. Sosnick says that if the Marlins make that guarantee, then he will listen.

 

Frisaro writes that if the two sides don't work out a contract extension, Johnson will be in line to earn about $4.2MM in his second arbitration-eligible year. The right-hander earned $1.45MM in 2009.

 

on mlbtraderumors

Cool.

That's great news...Get it done!

Convenient timing that we will resume talks with JJ about the same time that Chapman will probably sign with someone else...

Convenient timing that we will resume talks with JJ about the same time that Chapman will probably sign with someone else...

 

I suspect this is not a coincidence

Just give him the 4 years.

Just give him the 4 years.

 

this times infinity.

 

I don't think it's really that big of a risk, and we're not talking a huge amount of money.

I would guess it has zero to do with Chapman, after all we - baseball world outsiders, fans and writers - were in the same position having the same discussions here and elsewhere regarding Johnson before Chapman was on 1/10th of 1% of people's radar screens - the timing of his signing as it regards Johnson is purely co-incidental and from what is being reported already a fait accompli.

 

What it (reopening a window for negotiations) has everything to do with is the Marlins self-imposed negotiating deadline leading up to the arbitration period which is about to commence. They'll give it one, maybe two shots at coming to agreement before the Marlins' drop-dead date and if not Josh can throw his 200+ innings for $4+ million this year and six or so or whatever the number next, and they'll keep him for the full two years at bargain-basement pricing, or they'll move him when THEY decide to, or they'll offer him arby after he's a free agent and grab some draft picks and meanwhile Josh is pitching for chump change and hoping nothing happens that squelches his eventual payday. Eventual that is unless he get's hurt again in which case he's out $30-40 million and his agent moves on to his next piece of meat.

 

Both sides have a lot of "ifs" to contend with but ultimately the Marlins hold most of the cards. Not all, but most.

 

What makes Chapman valuable is (besides his youth and 100mph fastball) that because of his current residency he legally sits outside the rules for entering the MLB amateur draft and as such is fair game for all 30 teams whereas Johnson is just another guy (a very special guy without doubt from a talent standpoint) entering his second year of arbitration over which he has zero control and zero options. There is nothing he or his agent can do to arbitrarily affect that outcome. The best they can do is argue a good case but both sides will do that and hope the arbitrator or arbitration panel sees it their way.

Just give him the 4 years.

 

this times infinity.

 

I don't think it's really that big of a risk, and we're not talking a huge amount of money.

 

For most teams it wouldn't be... but for our precious fish, it is.

Its a huge risk for the Marlins. They don't really do this with pitchers. At least not in a long time.

Pitcher flame-out risk is high. I love the 3 year rule, and hope they don't compromise it.

Its a huge risk for the Marlins. They don't really do this with pitchers. At least not in a long time.

 

You have to take that risk at some point. You cant continuously have turnover in the starting rotation.

Talks renew between Johnson's agent, Marlins

 

Now all of a sudden Sosnick is 'cautiously optimistic' about getting a long-term deal done with Johnson. He's singing quite a different tune from a month ago, isn't he? I wouldn't expect anything different of him. In part of the article, Sosnick says that JJ wants to be here, I want him here, and the Marlins want him here. That is encouraging, but I really think the disagreement over the length of the contract could ruin things. Sosnick also stated that he is still willing to work out a deal during the season if they cannot reach an agreement before the 19th. If they cannot reach an agreement before the 19th, do you think that Sosnick will demand a 4-year contract? That would take up three years of free agency, instead of two. I can only think that it will be very difficult to make a deal after the 19th and the Marlins pay him for 2010.

 

I'm still a little fuzzy what would happen to the negotiations if they don't reach a deal before the 19th. A four year deal after that would mean 3 years of free agency in South Florida! To me it sounds like this scenario is high risk, high reward. Is that a correct assessment?

 

I really think that the Marlins will have to agree to a 4-year deal to get this done. OF COURSE, cash is always a consideration, but with the recent events that have unfolded, I think that the Marlins will 'pay up' a little if that's all it will take to get the deal done. I mean, they want to win...they just want make a lot of money first.

.

I remember the last time somebody on this site tried to offer "Inside Information". He said his sources told him the Miami Heat and Lamar Odom had agreed to a long term contract. Aw, that was good times.

I remember the last time somebody on this site tried to offer "Inside Information". He said his sources told him the Miami Heat and Lamar Odom had agreed to a long term contract. Aw, that was good times.

 

 

Lol I was being sarcastic with all the inside information crap. However, everything else was right on the money.

lol, if there is one thing I learned here, it is that you never take anything as sarcasm over the internetzzzzzzzzzzz

BTW, I was listening to 790 yesterday morning and Jayson Stark mentioned that you can only insure contracts for 3 years at a time. I hadn't heard that before but it would make a lot of sense out of why the Marlins don't want to give out that 4th year, especially since the contract is likely to be backloaded.

BTW, I was listening to 790 yesterday morning and Jayson Stark mentioned that you can only insure contracts for 3 years at a time. I hadn't heard that before but it would make a lot of sense out of why the Marlins don't want to give out that 4th year, especially since the contract is likely to be backloaded.

 

give him a 6 year contract!

BTW, I was listening to 790 yesterday morning and Jayson Stark mentioned that you can only insure contracts for 3 years at a time. I hadn't heard that before but it would make a lot of sense out of why the Marlins don't want to give out that 4th year, especially since the contract is likely to be backloaded.

 

 

I believe, including Hanley, the Marlins do not buy insurance on anyone. Maybe they changed their stance and I missed it, but that was the official position of the club in about 2007 and I don't think its changed. If anything any reasonable issues (in other words, *not* Sosnick's $52 million demand or whatever it was) that arose probably have more to do with language in the event of a strike after the 2011 season more than anything else.

 

Stark is right an awful lot of the time so I don't want to say he's wrong but I think he is on this one. But Fan Fest is coming so we get to ask the question of Beinfest and/or Samson in a few weeks.

Like i previously stated we would be better off trading him for prospects and keep Dan Uggla longer term.

 

Epic fail