Great to see that the baseball team I root for is becoming as stupid as the hockey team I root for.

Jay Bouwmeester, Version 2.0, here we come.

 

Just f***ing trade the guy...NOW!

 

 

You do that and the next thing will be Mike Stanton's agent demanding Mike be traded before the outset of Mike's rookie year because "we all know Mike will be worth at minimum $8 million in Mike's first year of arbitration so the Marlins might as well move Mike now while Mike still has some value to the Marlins. Mike has already instructed me to make sure Mike's family comes first and for everyone concerned let's not fool around, Mike's advisors and I have already outlined for Mike what Mike can expect to make on the open market over the next decade and Mike personally expressed to me Mike wants out and a trade to one of the following six teams...or Mike will be very unhappy."

 

I sympathize regarding the Panthers but a team can't let an agent start dictating through the media the conditions under which his client will or won't negotiate. Sosnick's $100 million comment to the media really is the problem here and it's what separates the Johnson situation from what happened JB.

Unbrelievable, just unbelievable. :banghead

 

You actually believe you know better what I wrote than I do who wrote it. You want to "imply" what I wrote rather than taking it for what it is just to make your argument look ,marginally more credible instead of just taking what I wrote at face value without your lengthy out in *left* field interpretations. You keep using words like "attack" as if this is a war scenario not individuals commenting on a messageboard. You are looking for something I'm not, all I'm doing is voicing an opinion not debating the merits of one post vs another. People I know around the country are aghast at how combative Miami fans are on messageboards generally and this one is no exception. You don't see this at OH or SONS or many others boards and from what people tell me it's the same way on SoFla football boards as well.

I agree that at some point we have to put our foot down and hold onto our good players, even if that means holding onto them until they hit free agency. You can't expect to compete by trading your players for prospects every time they become superstars and hit their prime. Hanley is obviously the one exception of this, but you can't just give one player a long term deal and tell the fanbase that is enough. We need them to show that they are taking steps in the right direction.

 

I don't believe JJ is the issue here, I just think his agent is a big mouth and the Marlins are probably low balling here. Trading JJ would be horrible this offseason. That is basically telling the fans that you give up on the season and don't want to compete for the foreseeable future.

 

It's frustrating this whole process, definitely. Seemed like a very simple concept to begin, give JJ slightly above the Zach Greinke contract and all is well. It's not asking the world to give the man an upscale contract of around 4 years, $40-45 million, especially in the baseball market we live in today that is a huge bargain. Just crazy that you can't sign one of the premier young pitchers in the game to a very reasonable contract.

 

I fear this whole situation may happen when Ricky wants a long term contract.

Ricky and JJ are both Sosnick clients and he's already made one veiled threat that not succumbing to his demands re: JJ could have implications for negotiations with other players.

Unbrelievable, just unbelievable. :banghead

 

You actually believe you know better what I wrote than I do who wrote it. You want to "imply" what I wrote rather than taking it for what it is just to make your argument look ,marginally more credible instead of just taking what I wrote at face value without your lengthy out in *left* field interpretations. You keep using words like "attack" as if this is a war scenario not individuals commenting on a messageboard. You are looking for something I'm not, all I'm doing is voicing an opinion not debating the merits of one post vs another. People I know around the country are aghast at how combative Miami fans are on messageboards generally and this one is no exception. You don't see this at OH or SONS or many others boards and from what people tell me it's the same way on SoFla football boards as well.

 

What you type and what you "mean" are totally different things. We've all learned this well over the painful amount of posts over the last half dozen years. Entire threads have been people "what?!?!?!?"ing you, and you still fall back on 'you don't get what I'm saying.' All I have is what you type. So either articulate your statements better, or don't cry fowl when you get called out for saying things that really have no backing except the infamous 'opinion' defense or a hail mary "der, the economy is bad." And god, do I wish everyone understood baseball as much as the SONS guys do. We wouldn't have 4/5ths the junk on this board. Way to steer off topic though. Classic 03.

 

You know what I have to say to you? Take your own advice.

 

Since I'm not the one making wildly inaccurate claims the obligation isn't on me to disprove you fallacious argument, it's on you to back up the statements you've made.

don't cry fowl

 

Chicken or turkey?

 

:lol

 

Seriously, this is all very interesting, but we really don't know what the full picture is from either side. Hopefully, they work it out and JJ stays here, long-term, which can happen under more than one scenario.

Lou, I think you might be missing 2003's point. You are considering contracts within the MLB vacuum and not taking note of how this market might be affected by external economic forces. These massive multi-year deals were likely a function of the Greenspan fantasy world this country was living in. That fantasy is gone now and their is potentially a lot more pain on the horizon as the US needs to unwind all of the inflation they are creating and consumers will need to adjust to higher interest rates. The market forces that have been fueling these massive contracts (merchandise, ticket sales, etc.) might begin to evaporate.

 

If I'm in Johnson's position I would be thankful to have a guaranteed $40-$50 million and not wait to see how the situation rests one year from now. In that case, the only thing he would have to worry about would be those dollars not buying as much as they would now. There is the possibility that salary numbers could rise, but once they are inflation adjusted they would probably be equivalent to 2009 numbers, if not lower.

If I was a ballplayer, 7 years at 7 million a year is where I'd sign on the dotted line. Being set up nicely for life early and having the financial security of a contract is worth the Risk/Reward of waiting for that big 6 year/120 million deal. In the end you may be leaving money on the table, but your also not going broke if you fail early.

 

JJ should be traded now. If he's not goign to be offered more then 3 or 4 years, his value lies with one of the bigger markets who can pay for him, and will pay us for him.

 

A deal with KC wouldn't be bad, if Alex Gordon and a young SP who is projected to be a frontline SP is in the discussion. The hole at 3B would be sealed, we would get a good ballplayer relatively on the cheap ($$ wise), and we would be able to secure HIS FUTURE if JJ isnt willing to secure his own.

 

2009, was at near minimum. 2010, he's a 1st year eligible arbitration player, coming off an injury plagued season. Secruring him to a 5 year, 3 million a year deal may not be that difficult.

All I ask Lou is you not misquote me and not put words in my mouth, which is your forte, not just with me but with so many here.

 

I don't think it's a lot to ask. If you have a point to be made, you are fully capable of making it without butchering someone else's thoughts, let your belief, which is all it really is because you know no more than the next guy, stand on its own.

 

Even you can do that. I think.

Lou, I think you might be missing 2003's point. You are considering contracts within the MLB vacuum and not taking note of how this market might be affected by external economic forces. These massive multi-year deals were likely a function of the Greenspan fantasy world this country was living in. That fantasy is gone now and their is potentially a lot more pain on the horizon as the US needs to unwind all of the inflation they are creating and consumers will need to adjust to higher interest rates. The market forces that have been fueling these massive contracts (merchandise, ticket sales, etc.) might begin to evaporate.

 

If I'm in Johnson's position I would be thankful to have a guaranteed $40-$50 million and not wait to see how the situation rests one year from now. In that case, the only thing he would have to worry about would be those dollars not buying as much as they would now. There is the possibility that salary numbers could rise, but once they are inflation adjusted they would probably be equivalent to 2009 numbers, if not lower.

 

I get it. I'm just saying, the market is going to have relatively no effect on the premier players in this league. What the economy is going to effect is the mid-market, where Adam Dunn has to settle for 2/$20, Abreu for 2/$19, and there will be absolutely no more contracts like Juan Pierre 5/$44 and Carlos Silva 4/$48. These players will be lucky to get 2-3 years from now on for $20-25 total. This is where the "youth movement" in baseball will come in as teams look to capitalize on the Jack Cust and John Baker's of the world. (granted those are two excellent examples, but the point with those two are very late entering the major leagues and teams may be more inclined to try these AAA vagabonds to see if they can get some production out of them). In the rare occasion a superstar gets to free agency and is not bought out, traded and signed, etc, the money is still going to be there. There is only a small class of these players that are superstars in their prime that get $100+ deals. CC (age) 28, Teix (29), A-Rod (25, renegotiation 32), Manny (29), Pujols (24), Jeter (27), Kevin Brown (33), Giambi (31), Griffey Jr. (30), Hampton (27), Zito (29), Soriano (31), V. Wells (29), Carlos Lee (31), Helton (29), Johan (29), Beltran (28), and Cabrera (25). Besides Pujols and Cabrera (who are both obviously monsters, and Cabrera's deal is 8 years), all of these deals are outside of arbitration years, which distinguishes recent large contracts that didn't eclipse $100, like Utley's 7/$85 and Hanley's 6/$70 which are half arbitration/half free agency buyouts (i.e., what teams need to do so you don't have to pay $100+). You put Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez in free agency, they are each bringing home $120-150 million. (And as a side note, we should really sign Johnson before any of those other 3 pitchers sign a much larger deal than $40). Market isn't drying up for this level of player. At least 4-5 of these deals have been during this "economic downturn." The top dozen spenders in the league will always have a place for these players if their parent organization is stupid enough not to identify their talents and sign them early, creating deals like the Utley, Hanley, Greinke, Wainwright, Sizemore, Shields, Haren, Pedroia, and other contracts.

 

And yes, 4/$40+ million over 4 years is good. And a fair going rate for Johnson not worry about it in a year. This puts him at the same level of Greinke, Wainwright, Lester, etc. 3/$22 is not and is severely undervaluing, and that's where the risk becomes involved. Maybe a 3/$30 with an easily vesting 4th is acceptable. As that is the right pay level. Note, if Johnson goes arbitration-arbitration-free agency year-free agency year, he is making more than $4/40. $40 is a discount in favor of guaranteeing years. The Marlins don't seem to understand this. They want a discount on the discount. So the assertion, Sosnick is saying $100 is a dream. No. It's there if he's healthy and performing. Teams will GLADLY have Josh Johnson. The only thing Johnson needs to do is weigh the risks in waiting 2 years to get it versus accepting a $5+ million arbitration this year (which brings his total earned money in baseball to $7.5+ million so he's already reached that 'set for life' level as soon as he gets his 2010 contract. Which is why it's smart to sign guys before they have "real money" to live off of). He's already made multi-millions, he's not going to lowball himself when he's two years away from $100+ million. The market with other FA pitchers has set this level to $32-36-38 (which is Wainwright-Lester-Greinke). Johnson should slot ahead of all of them as he has the most service time from when the time their contracts were signed. As long as a 3-4 year deal approaches this, with or without an easy vest for the fourth, that's going to be the determining factor.

 

If I was a ballplayer, 7 years at 7 million a year is where I'd sign on the dotted line. Being set up nicely for life early and having the financial security of a contract is worth the Risk/Reward of waiting for that big 6 year/120 million deal. In the end you may be leaving money on the table, but your also not going broke if you fail early.

 

JJ should be traded now. If he's not goign to be offered more then 3 or 4 years, his value lies with one of the bigger markets who can pay for him, and will pay us for him.

 

A deal with KC wouldn't be bad, if Alex Gordon and a young SP who is projected to be a frontline SP is in the discussion. The hole at 3B would be sealed, we would get a good ballplayer relatively on the cheap ($$ wise), and we would be able to secure HIS FUTURE if JJ isnt willing to secure his own.

 

2009, was at near minimum. 2010, he's a 1st year eligible arbitration player, coming off an injury plagued season. Secruring him to a 5 year, 3 million a year deal may not be that difficult.

 

As stated above, Johnson already has over $7 million as soon as arbitration is awarded. Taking 4/$40, is leaving money on the table compared to free agency, but that's just an acceptable level of compensation to become a free agent at 30 instead of 28. If we aren't going to give money to Josh Johnson, why the hell would we give money to Alex Gordon (who I do like), especially when the # 3 prospect in our organization is a universally held gold glove calibre third baseman who should develop some pop down the road. Plus I know you are just musing, but the Royals don't have any pitchers of interest to consummate a deal for Johnson. Whoever posted that Yankees article above I find realistic. It would take Joba/Hughes, Tabata, a strong third prospect, and a moderate fourth prospect. That's the blueprint if you want to start playing the hypothetical game. Personally, I'd look to Boston and start with Clay Buccholz and Casey Kelly.

 

And I also disagree, we need to keep Johnson even if we do not plan on signing him longterm. Because we are outside contenders if Nolasco, Volstad, West, and A. Miller all even throw low 4 eras. Johnson is so great we'd get whatever we wanted from Boston or New York or Anaheim at the trade deadline. Not much risk involved in seeing if you are a contender first.

Jose Tabata isn't in the Yankees' organization anymore. He got traded to Pittsburgh in the Xavier Nady deal. He's also not really a top prospect anymore.

 

For me, trading Johnson is out of the question. We don't have another pitcher coming up or in the current rotation who can be a #1 starter. Ricky is too inconsistent, Volstad is a wild-card, West is mostly unproven, Anibal is shaky, and Miller is a bust. Our TOP pitching prospect right now was just drafted in June, and is 4 years away at minimum, since he's a high-schooler.

Jose Tabata isn't in the Yankees' organization anymore. He got traded to Pittsburgh in the Xavier Nady deal. He's also not really a top prospect anymore.

 

For me, trading Johnson is out of the question. We don't have another pitcher coming up or in the current rotation who can be a #1 starter. Ricky is too inconsistent, Volstad is a wild-card, West is mostly unproven, Anibal is shaky, and Miller is a bust. Our TOP pitching prospect right now was just drafted in June, and is 4 years away at minimum, since he's a high-schooler.

 

I meant Montero. My apologies for the mix up.

Unbrelievable, just unbelievable. :banghead

 

You actually believe you know better what I wrote than I do who wrote it. You want to "imply" what I wrote rather than taking it for what it is just to make your argument look ,marginally more credible instead of just taking what I wrote at face value without your lengthy out in *left* field interpretations. You keep using words like "attack" as if this is a war scenario not individuals commenting on a messageboard. You are looking for something I'm not, all I'm doing is voicing an opinion not debating the merits of one post vs another. People I know around the country are aghast at how combative Miami fans are on messageboards generally and this one is no exception. You don't see this at OH or SONS or many others boards and from what people tell me it's the same way on SoFla football boards as well.

 

 

lol

That's how it is on every message board.

We didn't start failing, as a team, when we got rid of Beckett. Or Cabrera. Etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.

If you cannot agree to a deal this offseason, TRADE THE GUY.

It is stupid to take the risk. The risk of him becoming worse (Dontrelle Wills style). The risk of him getting injured, again.

 

His value is high right now. Put this guy out there, and every team who could afford him would want him. We'd get top notch prospects in return. The rest of our rotation isn't nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.

 

This would be a stupid risk to take.

Doesn't sound like a credible source, but at least it's something.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/odds-ends-johnson-.html

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus hears that the Marlins are willing to trade Josh Johnson "right now" for the right package.

It stands to reason that the Marlins would entertain offers for the 25-year-old Johnson with a weak free agent market and Roy Halladay also expected to be traded this winter. While Johnson won't cost the $15.10 million Halladay will next season, teams would have to give up some combination of major-league ready talent and prospects in exchange for two years of team control of one of the best young power arms in the game.

 

Here we go. Insane bidding war is about to occur.

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus hears that the Marlins are willing to trade Josh Johnson "right now" for the right package.

It stands to reason that the Marlins would entertain offers for the 25-year-old Johnson with a weak free agent market and Roy Halladay also expected to be traded this winter. While Johnson won't cost the $15.10 million Halladay will next season, teams would have to give up some combination of major-league ready talent and prospects in exchange for two years of team control of one of the best young power arms in the game.

 

Here we go. Insane bidding war is about to occur.

 

The more the Merrier, get the Phils and Mutts involved too. Shoot, even TB and KC.

 

Make all of them bid higher and higher for his services. Then ship him to Iraq for a batch of nuclear missles.

 

Beat the competition into submission with our Armed Rockets, not our rocket arms.

I wouldn't trade him in the national league for anything, let alone the Mets and Phillies. I'd trade him to the AL East because all 5 of them have prospects to move, and Johnson could be a division deciding player for any of those teams. Baltimore and Tampa have awesome young pitching, let alone NY and Bos have enough prospects to get it done. Johnson could replace Halladay. AL East or bust.

 

But I mean, just sign him for 4/$40. This is embarrassing we're considering trading him.

I really hope this is mostly Sosnick and that the front office is just biding their time or whatever, because I would be devastated at JJ being traded off this early.

 

I think that's the case, but it's hard to ignore when the rumors start up...

 

 

 

to echo FutureGM, we don't have another JJ. Hell there's only a few in the league.

I would rather they just kept JJ.

Please some how figure out a way to sign him FO. I thought sure it's possible he could be traded but not this offseason.

I wouldn't trade him in the national league for anything, let alone the Mets and Phillies. I'd trade him to the AL East because all 5 of them have prospects to move, and Johnson could be a division deciding player for any of those teams. Baltimore and Tampa have awesome young pitching, let alone NY and Bos have enough prospects to get it done. Johnson could replace Halladay. AL East or bust.

 

But I mean, just sign him for 4/$40. This is embarrassing we're considering trading him.

 

o's pitching specs make me drool they have some crazy talent was fun watching at Fort Lauderdale missing that stadium already for the FSL

 

I wouldnt mind a deal around some of KC or the Rangers prospects

First let me say I'm not in the camp of trading Johnson however if we were to trade him I believe Tampa Bay has the best prospects for a trade. Someone mentioned the Orioles, which believe me Matsuz/Tillman/Arrieta would be amazing but I doubt they trade any of them.

 

Tampa Bay Rays:

RHP Josh Johnson

 

Florida Marlins:

RHP Wade Davis or RHP Jeremy Hellickson

OF Desmond Jennings

SS Reid Brignac

 

Problems with this trade though is I doubt Tampa wants to take on salary with Carl Crawford needing a new contract; though I expect them to trade him and if they do, I would expect Jennings is to much for them to give up because he is Crawford's replacement. Brignac was a once top prospect but with the emergence of Bartlett/Zobrist I believe he becomes expendable.

I like a deal around Perez, Holland, Max Ramirez ©

 

gives us a SP right now ready to replace Johnson with about number 2 potential in Holland, a potential ace of the future still very young in perez and a catcher prospect that was down this year from being hut but has a great bat that can play anywhere.

I like a deal around Perez, Holland, Max Ramirez ©

 

gives us a SP right now ready to replace Johnson with about number 2 potential in Holland, a potential ace of the future still very young in perez and a catcher prospect that was down this year from being hut but has a great bat that can play anywhere.

 

 

 

I highly doubt we'd get both in one deal.

Plus...isn't Texas having financial problems?