3 years/$22m is an awful offer but you gotta start somewhere. Considering we effectively have 3 or 4 months until ST, there is plenty of time to work out a deal. There is a reason it is called contract negotiations - each party wants to maximise the value to them (JJ more $$$, Marlins less $$$) and they will negotiate until they reach an agreement, which they will.

I have to ask....After the first year of a players 4 year contract is over can the team then renegotiate the policy with the insurance company to then cover the final 3 years?

 

 

I don't know, but I doubt it.

 

Even though in a twice-removed life I sold a lot of both individual and group life, health and disability coverage, nothing in that universe correlates in any way to how long-term sports disability contracts for large amounts are underwritten. This is very esoteric stuff. Lloyd's of London type stuff. Not many carriers in the market, so the possibilities for winks and nods between carriers are great.

 

I found a lot of articles describing A-Rod's and other big contracts, but the insurance details were few. 80% maximum coverage and sometime in the last 10 years or so nobody wanted to write anything longer than the first 3 years, period, end of story. 12% or so of the insured amount as the premium.

 

Now, usually almost anything is negotiable when it comes to what are one-of-a-kind insurance contracts, so who knows? What you suggest, some sort of renewable coverage, should be possible but doesn't seem to be. My guess would be it's because of adverse selection risk, as in the team has much better information than the insurer can ever hope to get.

 

If I were an insurer writing this sort of coverage, I would be open to writing coverage for X years that is then re-evaluated at the end of year X in light of how what (if anything) happened in the first X years should affect premiums for the next one or two or X or however many years. There really should be any number of possibilities, but for whatever reason(s) that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

It's all a bit of a mystery and it's unclear how it may affect any given owner's decisions regarding long-term contracts.

IF we trade JJ, I would hope it would be in a package with Uggla to the Rangers for Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz and Max Ramirez.

Could just be agent talk, I think them breaking off talks 4 months before ST is silly.

 

 

Yep. The agent knows the Marlins don't talk contracts through the media so he is taking advantage of that. Only his side of the story is going to be made public. He is trying to get the public to turn against the team in his favor, to the point of saying this will be JJ's last year here. This could backfire big time, and I hope it does. This guy is giving agents a bad name.

 

Also, why is this 3yr/$32mil thing being taken so seriously here? The team dosen't disclose contract talks so where did these numbers come from? The PBP just says they were believed to be offering that. So who made up those numbers?

 

I think he still signs before Opening Day. According to his agent it's just the years involved? Fine. Sign him to 4, make it heavily back laden, and trade him after 3 or renegotiate it then.

First of all, the dollar amount you posted is off by $10 million. I'm not sure if that was a typo on your part or you misread the article, but this is probably worth mentioning. If the Marlins truly don't want to go beyond 3/$22M, then I honestly don't see how a deal gets done. Not only is the fourth year not there, but the dollar amount is much lower than it needs to be. They are offering him $7.33M per when it should be closer to $10M-$11M per. Is there a chance he signs for less than that? I suppose, but 4/$30 would be one hell of a bargain and his agent surely knows he could do better on the open market or negotiations with another team, if traded.

 

Secondly, I don't think anyone here is quoting that figure as fact. It's been made available, whether accurate or not, so it warrants some discussion. As I've posted earlier, based upon the manner in which the Marlins have done business in the past, it is not outrageous to assume that the Marlins would be reluctant to offer a fourth year here.

Its a long time before ST they will be much more conversations however at 3yrs/22 mill does seem to be a very lowball figure I can understand why JJ's agent was insulted, however they continue talking which is a good sign

If what his agent says it true and they'll refuse to talk contract, then we need to trade him ASAP. It's pretty sh*tty on the part of both the FO and the agent. The FO for not taking a deal that would be considered a bargain in all respects and the agent for saying two different things to the media and being an overall jerk. I'd love to see him here but if we can't lock him up for the long run, then I'd sacrifice next year in order to be ready for 2012.

Hmmm what could we get for JJ...Hmmm

For all the talk that 3 years/22m is embarrassing yadda yadda

 

Greinke's first 3 year contract is 3 years/24.5m

 

If they're using that as a baseline, is it really that big of a deal?

 

I think people are overreacting and forgetting just how little is made the first year of the contract (arb years)/just how much is made the last year of the contract (fa years).

 

Not going a 4th year means the contract is gonna be in the 20's. Our first offer was a low ball but you then build off that. I'm sure it's true that it happened, but the agent is trying to build a public perception. He talks about what they offered 22 for 3 years and what he wanted 40 for 4. There's certainly a big difference between 40m and 22m. The thing to remember is that that one year is some 14ish mil. Meaning that on a per year basis they're not far off from one another. All it is, is that year.

It doesn't matter what Greinke makes. The guy was a full blown mental case who struggled when he pitched until lately. Johnson showed consistent ability a lot earlier in his career than Greinke did.

It doesn't matter what Greinke makes. The guy was a full blown mental case who struggled when he pitched until lately. Johnson showed consistent ability a lot earlier in his career than Greinke did.

 

 

except the agent himself said they were using Greinke's contract as a baseline

 

They were 18 mil off total (40m-22m). The last contract year is about 14m. If we just assume 14m, that means the marlins offered 22m for 3 years, and agent offered 26m for first 3 years. How is 4m difference that big of a omgwtf deal?

Hmmm what could we get for JJ...Hmmm

 

 

Probably an excellent prospect that won't be ready in time for next year, given that we trade him to a team that wants to compete next year, but still needs a few pieces.

I really don't want to lose JJ, but what kind of return do you think we can get for a JJ/Uggla package?

 

Holland+ Perez/Smoak + Max Ramirez(another of the catchers one of them I think max makes most since we are so cheap), Kiker type (C+ type prospect pitcher with upside) for Uggla + johnson + pinto

 

I would love a move with KC personally I think johnson would fit them well too as they could pair him with grenkie for a 1-2 punch to make a run at the AL central

 

 

If we're trading JJ to Texas, Neftali Feliz better be coming back our way. Not to mention, we'd be giving them Uggla, too. Feliz better be the main part of the return. No disrespect to Holland who's also a very good left-handed pitching prospect.

 

I dont see them moving Feliz with his Sub 2 era last year in the majors already and longer control for someone more expensive and less controlled. Perez will be a top 10 prospect in the league btw

Really, I don't understand why there's so much pressure on the Marlins to get a long-term deal done with Johnson. If I was JJ, I would take whatever security blanket the team would offer me and run with it. From the FO's point of view, if they don't get a deal done this offseason, JJ just has to prove all over again in the '10 season that he's worthy of some team offering him a long term deal, whether it be the Marlins or his suitors once he hits free agency. If JJ underperforms next year, the Marlins look like geniuses for avoiding the long-term deal with a pitcher who didn't live up to expectations. If JJ is lights out once again, the Marlins are still paying a "fair" market value for an elite pitcher through arbitration, and JJ probably earned what he was making. Plus, if he does maintain his high level of performance, there will always be a demand for him on the trade market, no matter how much money he's making through arbitration.

 

It all boils down to JJ. Does he want to prove year after year that he's the caliber of pitcher that everyone thinks he is and chance losing his value on the open market if he underperforms or has a recurring arm injury, or would he prefer to take a lesser amount of money now for the security of the 3 year deal?

Really, I don't understand why there's so much pressure on the Marlins to get a long-term deal done with Johnson. If I was JJ, I would take whatever security blanket the team would offer me and run with it. From the FO's point of view, if they don't get a deal done this offseason, JJ just has to prove all over again in the '10 season that he's worthy of some team offering him a long term deal, whether it be the Marlins or his suitors once he hits free agency. If JJ underperforms next year, the Marlins look like geniuses for avoiding the long-term deal with a pitcher who didn't live up to expectations. If JJ is lights out once again, the Marlins are still paying a "fair" market value for an elite pitcher through arbitration, and JJ probably earned what he was making. Plus, if he does maintain his high level of performance, there will always be a demand for him on the trade market, no matter how much money he's making through arbitration.

 

It all boils down to JJ. Does he want to prove year after year that he's the caliber of pitcher that everyone thinks he is and chance losing his value on the open market if he underperforms or has a recurring arm injury, or would he prefer to take a lesser amount of money now for the security of the 3 year deal?

 

 

I agree 100% with this. If I'm JJ I take that contract and guarantee myself and family a good living no matter what happens. After the 3 years are up if I've performed THEN I will holdout for a badass contract. Too dangerous gambling with my entire future for another year and a few mil.

Really, I don't understand why there's so much pressure on the Marlins to get a long-term deal done with Johnson. If I was JJ, I would take whatever security blanket the team would offer me and run with it. From the FO's point of view, if they don't get a deal done this offseason, JJ just has to prove all over again in the '10 season that he's worthy of some team offering him a long term deal, whether it be the Marlins or his suitors once he hits free agency. If JJ underperforms next year, the Marlins look like geniuses for avoiding the long-term deal with a pitcher who didn't live up to expectations. If JJ is lights out once again, the Marlins are still paying a "fair" market value for an elite pitcher through arbitration, and JJ probably earned what he was making. Plus, if he does maintain his high level of performance, there will always be a demand for him on the trade market, no matter how much money he's making through arbitration.

 

It all boils down to JJ. Does he want to prove year after year that he's the caliber of pitcher that everyone thinks he is and chance losing his value on the open market if he underperforms or has a recurring arm injury, or would he prefer to take a lesser amount of money now for the security of the 3 year deal?

 

The Marlins look like idiots if he matches 2009, because they could have had him for 60% of his contract value in years 7 and 8 (first two free agency years). That's not going to happen next offseason.

 

Second bold, your logic is based on us being a team that recycles players. This is a cornerstone piece. There should not be any discussion anymore about trading him now that there is the stadium and revenue source for the future. Hanley is the bat, Johnson is the ace. You build around that. Who gives a sh*t about the trade market. This is a player we need to contend, will not be replaced by any package unlike average/slighty above average performers like Uggla, Cantu, Ross, and even Nolasco, and everything Sosnick is saying is reasonable compared to Greinke/Wainwright/Shields/etc contracts to other great young starters. He's not asking for $15 million a year. JJ is steal for 4/$40, and it's mind boggling the Marlins still want to be dipshits.

 

There is no defense to this. There is no sugar coating it. The Marlins front office enormously fails if they do not sign Johnson to a 4/$40ish million contract this offseason.

Not going a 4th year means the contract is gonna be in the 20's. Our first offer was a low ball but you then build off that. I'm sure it's true that it happened, but the agent is trying to build a public perception. He talks about what they offered 22 for 3 years and what he wanted 40 for 4. There's certainly a big difference between 40m and 22m. The thing to remember is that that one year is some 14ish mil. Meaning that on a per year basis they're not far off from one another. All it is, is that year.

 

 

 

Yeah, I agree, while 3/22 sounds low, it is also discounting the fact that the Marlins offered a fourth year as an option. Who knows how much that option was worth? Even JJ's agent said that money wasn't an issue, it was guaranteeing that fourth year.

 

As such, I think it is foolish for the agent to say no more talks, ever. It is clear that he was fine with the dollar amount the Marlins were offering, he just didn't like the fourth year deal. But the Marlins showed they were at least willing to offer a 4th year, via the option. If I was JJ, I'd tell my agent to get back there and, you know, negotiate that 4th year to make it a guarantee.

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro gathered a bit more information on the failed talks, including this quote from Johnson's agent:"We talked twice for a total of 30 minutes. Everything happened this week. There were no hard feelings about it, no harsh words. They offered us a deal that we felt was way under market value for the dollars and years."

 

 

I had a feeling that the initial report was off base. This clears some stuff up.

For all the talk that 3 years/22m is embarrassing yadda yadda

 

Greinke's first 3 year contract is 3 years/24.5m

 

If they're using that as a baseline, is it really that big of a deal?

 

I think people are overreacting and forgetting just how little is made the first year of the contract (arb years)/just how much is made the last year of the contract (fa years).

 

Not going a 4th year means the contract is gonna be in the 20's. Our first offer was a low ball but you then build off that. I'm sure it's true that it happened, but the agent is trying to build a public perception. He talks about what they offered 22 for 3 years and what he wanted 40 for 4. There's certainly a big difference between 40m and 22m. The thing to remember is that that one year is some 14ish mil. Meaning that on a per year basis they're not far off from one another. All it is, is that year.

 

I disagree.

 

I don't think you can take the sum of the first three years of a four year contract and assume that is the equivalent of a hypothetical three year deal. Those years were only as low as they were because there was a guaranteed fourth year on the books. If Greinke doesn't take the fourth year, I would bet his three year deal is higher than $24.5.

 

Of course this is all conjecture but I still contend that both the dollar amount and the number of years the Marlins are offering are insulting.

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro gathered a bit more information on the failed talks, including this quote from Johnson's agent:"We talked twice for a total of 30 minutes. Everything happened this week. There were no hard feelings about it, no harsh words. They offered us a deal that we felt was way under market value for the dollars and years."

 

 

I had a feeling that the initial report was off base. This clears some stuff up.

 

 

Actually it sounds like Sosnick is doing damage control after shooting his mouth off earlier. All those quotes of his weren't made up. Same old, same old.

If he's our starting pitcher on Opening Day next year (despite being unsigned), it'll be the franchise's biggest mistake. Either you sign him this offseason or you trade him, imo.

Bottom line:

 

1. If we don't sign JJ to a multi-year contract....he is here one more year (2010)for $4 million. The Marlins have control of him for 2011 also, but for him to have value for another team he needs to be traded before the 2011 season. We would get incredible prospects for him. Great starting pitching is always in great demand and rich teams that will be able to afford his free agent contract will no doubt part with their future stars (Beckett for Hanley type of trade).

 

2. If we should sign him for 3 years (this would include one free agent year), we would have him for 2 years if we follow the above logic. It would cost the Marlins $7.3 million per year and would trade him before the 2012 season.

 

3. If we do sign JJ for 4 years (two free agent years) we would only have him for 3 years (though the 2012 season)at $10 million per year.

 

The longer the contract, the more expensive per year because it would include more "potential free agent" years, but still at a bargain compared with his future free agent salary because JJ would get monetary security for at least a few years even if he blows out his arm again.

 

Nobody really knows what will happen. A lot of factors are probably affecting the club's decision. How well the Marlins do in the next few seasons will probably influence how much they will spend on payroll leading to the big move into the new ballpark, but I would guess that the Marlins will keep him at least for the 2012 season not to lessen the enthusiasm of the fans at this crucial time in the club's history.

If he's our starting pitcher on Opening Day next year (despite being unsigned), it'll be the franchise's biggest mistake. Either you sign him this offseason or you trade him, imo.

 

 

I agree 100%

 

His value is at its highest point now which means bad leverage on trying to sign him but good trade value.

If he's our starting pitcher on Opening Day next year (despite being unsigned), it'll be the franchise's biggest mistake. Either you sign him this offseason or you trade him, imo.

 

 

He will never have more trade value for the Marlins than he has right now, It will not matter if he wins 25 games next season. I agree Erick either sign him or trade him

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

 

 

Marlins' Johnson facing one-year deal

Seeking four years, ace must settle for short-term solution

 

By Joe Frisaro / MLB.com

 

11/21/09 5:46 PM EST

 

MIAMI -- A couple of conversations that lasted roughly a half-hour appear to have changed Josh Johnson's long-term future with the Marlins.

 

Talks between the Marlins and Matt Sosnick, Johnson's agent, reached an impasse on Friday when both sides couldn't agree on the framework of a multiyear contract.

 

Speaking to MLB.com on Saturday, Sosnick insisted there are no hard feelings, and both sides now are prepared to move forward on a one-year contract for 2010 because this is Johnson's second season eligible for arbitration.

 

"We talked twice for a total of 30 minutes," Sosnick said. "Everything happened this week. There were no hard feelings about it, no harsh words. They offered us a deal that we felt was way under market value for the dollars and years."

 

Per team policy, the Marlins do not speak publicly on contract negotiations.

 

Sosnick said after the initial conversation reached a stalemate, he made a follow-up phone call.

 

"I called again and said, 'Are you set? Is there not going to be a fourth year guaranteed?'" Sosnick said. "They said, 'There is not going to be a fourth year guaranteed.'"

 

At that point, the two sides said they would get in touch at a later date to work out a one-year contract for 2010.

 

Johnson, 25, had a breakout 2009 campaign, finishing 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He logged a career-high 33 starts and 209 innings.

 

With a $36 million payroll, the Marlins finished with 87 wins and in second place behind the Phillies in the National League East.

 

Florida's payroll in 2010 is expected to be about $36 million, or slightly less.

 

Without getting into specific dollar figures, Sosnick said the Marlins offered three years with a club option for a fourth.

 

Johnson's camp was hoping the deal would at least match what Kansas City's Zack Greinke signed before the 2009 season. The Royals' ace, recently named the American League Cy Young Award winner, signed for four years at $38 million.

 

In his first year of salary arbitration, Johnson made $1.4 million, plus another $50,000 in bonuses. The 6-foot-7 right-hander was selected to his first All-Star Game, and Sosnick said: "Outside of [Tim] Lincecum, J.J.'s probably the next-best young pitcher in baseball. So given that, what kind of player are you looking to build your team around?"

 

Lincecum, the Giants' two-time Cy Young Award-winning right-hander, also is 25 years old.

 

Johnson remains under Marlins control through 2011, before he is eligible for free agency for the 2012 season.

 

A four-year deal would have closed out Johnson's final two seasons of arbitration, plus two potential years of free agency.

 

Sosnick has held a hard stance that for Johnson to sign a multiyear contract with the Marlins, he would have to do so before the 2010 season.

 

Asked on Saturday if talks for a multiyear deal could pick up again once both sides had time to reconsider, Sosnick said: "No. I don't see it changing. We're to the point right now where I've kind of moved on. If Josh signed a four-year deal with them, we'd be giving up a tremendous amount of money in two free-agent years. We would have done it anyway, because Josh really wanted to stay in Florida. We told them that. The fact they were not interested made a tough choice much easier. It probably saves Josh $10 million."

 

Sosnick feels 2010 will be Johnson's last with the Marlins, if the team wants to maximize his trade value. Since the Marlins aren't revealing their intentions, that is purely speculation.

 

In the past, the Marlins retained pitchers A.J. Burnett and Carl Pavano in their final arbitration years, and then received Draft pick compensation when both opted for free agency. On the flip side, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera were dealt before their final years of arbitration.

 

"We disagreed on the years, which is fair," Sosnick said. "As far as our feelings are concerned, and I feel very strongly that this is true, that Josh either signs a long-term deal now with the Marlins, which is not going to happen, or he gets traded after this year and the Marlins can get some value back.

 

"Whoever he gets traded to will probably ask for a long-term deal for the Marlins to get what they're asking for him. So to me, Josh either signs a big contract this year, or a big contract next year. If the absolute worst-case scenario occurs and the Marlins decide to keep him for two years, and get Draft picks in return for him, which I don't see happening, then [free agency] is two years from now."

 

Sosnick said he doesn't see any problem working out a one-year contract for Johnson in 2010, and he stated his respect for the Marlins' front office.

 

Derek Jackson, the team's vice president and general counsel, puts together the Marlins' arbitration cases.

 

"The guys that do the arbitration for the Marlins, guys like Derek Jackson, they are incredibly smart guys, particularly Jackson," Sosnick said. "Those guys evaluate and have a pretty good understanding of the arbitration process."

 

Sosnick added that for the resources the Marlins have, president of baseball operations Admin Beinfest and general manager Mike Hill rank among the best in the game. With less, the Marlins have shown they can field competitive clubs.

 

"The strategy the Marlins have used has been good for the Marlins," Sosnick said. "They've been competitive almost every year with less. You're going to have a very hard time convincing me that Beinfest and Hill aren't the most effective GMs in the league.

 

"I'm disappointed that we didn't get a deal done. But look at their track record. Think what those guys could do if they had $200 million, or $150 million in salary, or $120 million in salary. Think about it. They're unbelievable the way they've managed the team. I can't begrudge the choices they make, because the choices they make generally are very good."

 

 

 

 

 

A one year day only benefits JJ and his agent

I really want JJ around for a few more years....