June 17, 201016 yr http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/anibal-sanchezs-value/ Interesting article by Fangraphs. Anibal Sanchez has been great, but I don't expect him to keep up his recent success, either.
June 17, 201016 yr Good article. Thanks for posting. It's tough to argue with anything in there, certainly. He may never be more than a #3-#4, but I won't complain about the net results so far this year.
June 17, 201016 yr Author My thought process on this is different. I'm happy with the results he has given us, but I know sooner or later he'll come back down to earth. So, why not trade him while his value is at its highest at the TD? If we are going to be sellers, and his numbers are the same, we can get pretty good value in return.
June 17, 201016 yr My thought process on this is different. I'm happy with the results he has given us, but I know sooner or later he'll come back down to earth. So, why not trade him while his value is at its highest at the TD? If we are going to be sellers, and his numbers are the same, we can get pretty good value in return. It may be that other teams see what we do, in other words, a guy that will soon come back down to earth, so they may not want to risk trading anything worthwhile away.
June 17, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either.
June 17, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. Chris Volstad gives solid outings.
June 17, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. South Florida says this in every sport... Drew Brees for the Dolphins,,, the numerous Boozer rumors and such over the summer... the to-be LeBron rumors... and then the Florida Panthers: Rick Nash Erick Staal Martin Havlat Vincent Lecavalier etc. etc. ETC.
June 17, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. Chris Volstad gives solid outings. Basing things on this article, which is nicely written...Chris Volstad is just another backend of the rotation starter/no sure thing, either. Just last year, the team had to send him down to the minors. This article states that Anibal has been lucky with an xFIP of 4.34; Volstad's xFIP is at 4.61. Basically, our starting rotation after Josh Johnson right now is as big of a problem as the bullpen, etc. At least a bullpen is easier to fix. Our SP depth kinda sucks. Sean West seems to be the next closest guy we have, but he's unproven at the big league level, at the end of the day, so who knows. After that, Andrew Miller is an absolute mess. Even if they live up to their potential, James and Hand are still some years away. We're thin on SP, right now. It's not wise to be trading arms. Even if Anibal has been lucky, as of right now, you can still have confidence in him being a #3/#4 type guy, which isn't really a bad thing, at all. Of course if a team is willing to overpay, you make a deal, but that's probably not all that realistic.
June 17, 201016 yr Author Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. True. But, what do you do come TD, and the Marlins are 10 games back? Sell high with Anibal Sanchez.
June 17, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. True. But, what do you do come TD, and the Marlins are 10 games back? Sell high with Anibal Sanchez. Really dumb because you won't find a pitcher for the amount he is making ($1.2 2010, will probably double in 2011) to pitch at a low 4 era quality, let alone his upside is higher. We don't have other starters MLB ready. Maybe West. Miller and Vanden Hurk probably not. Sanabia is really raw. And that's it. We need Anibal. Remember, he is a year off surgery and is still crazy young. He could realistically improve with health. You can trade Nate Rob, and Cantu, and Helms, and maybe Hensley, and Ross, and Uggla if you get the king's ransom. You don't trade any of our young arms even if they are overachieving their "FIP" from lack of HR.
June 18, 201016 yr And while it's still too small of a sample size to say one way or the other, there is a skill difference in ability to give up HRs, xFIP is for when the sample size is too small to make an assumption that a player is better or worse than average since the skill doesn't have that much of a varriance. So far in his career, he's given up a HR on 7.6% of FBs compared to 10.5% of average. If that's his skill set and not variance, applying that rate of HRs to his line this year gives an xFIP of 3.90
June 18, 201016 yr And while it's still too small of a sample size to say one way or the other, there is a skill difference in ability to give up HRs, xFIP is for when the sample size is too small to make an assumption that a player is better or worse than average since the skill doesn't have that much of a varriance. So far in his career, he's given up a HR on 7.6% of FBs compared to 10.5% of average. If that's his skill set and not variance, applying that rate of HRs to his line this year gives an xFIP of 3.90
June 18, 201016 yr Imagine if Boston would've given us what we supposedly wanted. Josh Johnson and Jon Lester in the same rotation would've been really nice. To answer the question, the Marlins shouldn't really trade Anibal right now. SP is thin; nothing is certain on this team after Josh Johnson. You never have enough pitching. Ricky Nolasco's regression is not helping the cause, either. Chris Volstad gives solid outings. Yeah Volstads a solid #3 right now and only 23 years old. In acouple more years with more experience he'll become a #2. Hes had a lot of bad luck ( a run scored on an infield sac fly? and another on a passed ball called a wild pitch? and another on a ball that Paulino misjudges that allows a runner to score that would have been out by 10 feet? and many double plays not turned that lead to earned runs?) and many inherited runners scoring and poor run support. Hes a long way from an experienced pitcher but doing very well for the Marlins
June 18, 201016 yr So, it isn't crazy to think Anibal can keep up his production? He's not as good as he's pitched, but the point is the Marlins aren't in a position to make such a trade.
June 18, 201016 yr It really shows how strong Anibal's determination to succeed is considering how well he has pitched this year on his road back from injury and tragedy off the field.
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better?
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft.
June 18, 201016 yr yeah totally, why do we keep drafting guys who are going to wind up in the middle or back of the rotation instead of the ones that will end up being aces? Beinfest stop f-ing around. and something about Jayson Heyward, etc.
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft. Im not saying its easy to do that. Im saying we have been very conservative in drafting pitchers who will (as much of a sure thing you can get in the draft) be in the big leagues for sure but not be anything much more than a middle of the rotation guy like a volstad or like a james. Im saying that although that could be a disaster for a small market team like us, we need to take some chances in upcoming drafts to get top of the rotation prospects that have a bigger chance of being busts than just going for the middle of the rotation guys. Just another reason why being a small market team hampers us so greatly.
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft. What you say makes sense, but I still understand the sentiments of the other poster. It's odd that in baseball many teams are content to draft pitchers in the first round that have limited upside. It seems especially odd that a team like the Marlins was content for years to draft guys who project to be groundball pitchers at best, even though they know that they have no chance to acquire top flight pitching unless they get lucky when they trade a player like a top-flight pitcher themselves (See; Beckett, Josh). These GB pitchers are nothing more than safe picks, while there are usually guys with better pure stuff but maybe less polish and less assurance to actually develop into an MLB starter, like a Ryan Tucker. It's a complete 180 of the position player philosophy of drafting on tools, which is why we have a dozen guys each year in our system who are potential breakout candidates but never do a single thing until they are finally discarded. Anibal could be considered a stuff guy, but other than JJ there really is nobody. And the ironic thing with JJ is that he was probably closer to the Volstad mold, although somehow more effective, until he had TJ and came back throwing 98, much harder than he had ever thrown before.
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft. The Marlins passed on one last year to draft Chad James.
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft. The Marlins passed on one last year to draft Chad James. I'm going to guess you've yet to see either throw a pitch stil, right?
June 18, 201016 yr Just reading this thread and thinking, we really need to draft a potential front end of the rotation pitcher instead of all these guys ike volstad and james, although they both may be good, i feel we need to get another top end of the rotation pitcher. Is james just supposed to be another middle rotation pitcher or better? Lol if you think that it's easy to draft a frontline pitcher. You just draft the best one you can (signability issues all being equal), and you see what happens. Very very very few guys each year are projected to be aces right out of the draft. The Marlins passed on one last year to draft Chad James. You have no idea what you are talking about. You look at scouting reports online and other things like that rather than go and actually watch these guys like the pro scouts do. I'll take their word over yours.
June 18, 201016 yr You want me to ignore scouting reports(which all had Miller has a top 10 pick and James as a big reach where the Marlins picked him) but the scouts who go watch them should be listened to, even though they are the ones writing the scouting reports? The Marlins skipped Miller because of his price tag, not because James is a better prospect.
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