The Miguel Cabrera trade of 2007

[Backin2008]

I just read a wicked article about the Miguel Cabrera trade with the Tigers. I didn't realize how awful it really was and still is. If you want to read it here it is......http://www.bloglockers.com/

[I Love Me Some Fish]

Before reading that, I thought it was a terrible trade. After reading that, I still think it was a terrible trade.

[BosnianBaller_]

what are the chances of two of the highest rated prospects in baseball to become total flops

[Backin2008]

what are the chances of two of the highest rated prospects in baseball to become total flops

 

 

It happens all of the time. If those prospects are Miller and Maybin.....pretty good.

[dim]

Should be reminded that Andrew Miller was to pitching prospects in 2007 what Buster Posey is to hitting prospects today (both basically dominated college opposition).

 

If you look at Maybin, in his minor league stats you aren't going to find a place he went where he didn't have an OBP at or above .375, and he used to have power where he was projected to have 25-30 home runs per season in the majors. If you look his power numbers have declined each year since the day the Tigers called him up to the majors (aka a product of the Tigers rushing him).

 

Marlins just got caught in some terrible luck. Guys who just never lived up to the bill and were very poorly brought up by the Tigers and were given to us as basically damaged goods.

 

There's still hope for Maybin no doubt, but he REALLY needs to stop striking out so much.

[Rabbethan]

It was a good trade at the time, most "experts" felt we did a good job of raiding their system.

 

 

It just didn't work out to what it was supposed to. Tough. There is still hope with Maybin but really, this is the risk in trading for prospects. The trade had to be made and we may have gotten luckier with a different trade (Dodgers anyone?), but it was a good trade at the time.

[Out of the Past]

A high percentage of top 20 prospects fail to make it big so it's not unusual for both Maybin and Miller to crap out. Both had holes in their games when the trade was made so no one should be surprised at what's happened. There's still hope for Maybin.

[Bret Hart]

Miggy (After testified, he is fighting for AL MVP with Josh Hamilton) + D-train (derailed and journeyed)

 

=

 

Maybin (glassed body. trouble with bad swinging and OBP. get an another chance?)

Miller (Almost Steve Blass-ed. Can't throw a strike. He is in AA. No one care about him.)

Badenhop (useful for long relief. not bad)

Trahern (longtime disabled listed in AAA. unnecessary & unvalued guy)

De La Cruz (DFA'd. where is he?)

Rebelo (Miami native, but DFA'd cause of terrible defense & CS%. Back to Tigers' AAA.)

 

 

We completely lost in this deal. No doubt about it.

[dr marlin]

Here's what really bugs me about this trade. Apparently the Rays, back around the 07 season, wanted to give us B.J Upton for SCOTT OLSEN. And we turned it down!!! Now, if we did that, we could've traded Migi for a pitcher (maybe to the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw and James Loney??)

[dim]

BJ Upton sucks,

[Admin]

I think the consensus here at the time among the more reputable posters was that the package was adequate but not nearly as good as what the Marlins could have gotten from one of the LA teams.

 

The Dodgers weren't biting because the Marlins wanted the whole farm. In hindsight if the Marlins had settled for just Kemp or Ethier for both Willis and Cabrera they would have been better off.

 

I would have preferred that the Marlins had just lowered their asking price with the Dodgers (simply lowering the number of names) because they had better talent. The names that kep popping up (Ethier, Kemp, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw) were much more attractive than Maybin and Miller. Honestly taking just two of those five would have worked incredibly well for the Marlins.

 

I think Beinfest was more concerned with quantity than he was with quality.

[Admin]

Id take Upton over Bonifacio, who the Fish basically traded Olsen AND Hammer for(considering Smolinski's struggles and Dean's...whatever his deal is/was).

 

Getting Maybin and Miller wasnt bad, it was the secondary players in the trade that made it a loss. EDLC couldnt throw strikes, Rabelo was old and terrible(which was already known), Badenhop had no role, and Trahern has mediocre/average stuff at best.

[Admin]

Id take Upton over Bonifacio, who the Fish basically traded Olsen AND Hammer for(considering Smolinski's struggles and Dean's...whatever his deal is/was).

 

Getting Maybin and Miller wasnt bad, it was the secondary players in the trade that made it a loss. EDLC couldnt throw strikes, Rabelo was old and terrible(which was already known), Badenhop had no role, and Trahern has mediocre/average stuff at best.

 

I think at the time the deal was made everyone thought that the secondary players sucked and were just throw-ins, especially Rabelo (everyone knew he was worthless). I think that's what made the deal a tad bit disatisfying when considering what the Marlins could have gotten from LA instead.

[Admin]

I bet the Tigers actually chuckled in disbelief when the Fish asked for Rabelo.

[dom2613]

I used to watch a show called "The Show" and it often had GM's and scouts on it talking about minor league baseball. Can't remember if it was a scout or Gm who said 90% of minor leaguers wont ever make the bigs. That's not even counting the guys who get a cup of coffee. So if that stat is true it's not that hard to see how Maybin and Millar could crap out. I think sometimes we forget how freaking good you have to be to be a everyday major leaguer much less a star.

[Sirspud]

I think the consensus here at the time among the more reputable posters was that the package was adequate but not nearly as good as what the Marlins could have gotten from one of the LA teams.

 

The Dodgers weren't biting because the Marlins wanted the whole farm. In hindsight if the Marlins had settled for just Kemp or Ethier for both Willis and Cabrera they would have been better off.

 

I would have preferred that the Marlins had just lowered their asking price with the Dodgers (simply lowering the number of names) because they had better talent. The names that kep popping up (Ethier, Kemp, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw) were much more attractive than Maybin and Miller. Honestly taking just two of those five would have worked incredibly well for the Marlins.

 

I think Beinfest was more concerned with quantity than he was with quality.

 

 

Quantity is never better than quality. If it were, the Pirates would be the best team in the league. They've been trading pretty good players for multiple C prospects every year. None of those guys have turned out for them, and they end up trading a single effective guy for three useless ones.

 

I know it doesn't mean much, but I doubted both prospects at the time because of the rushing, although I doubted Maybin more than Miller because in-depth analysis by researchers showed he had terrible ground ball percentage, indicating an inherent flaw in his swing. I hated Miller more after he was simply given a rotation spot without even earning it, a blunder that may have ruined Miller's career even worse than the initial rushing by the Tigers because he showed he wasn't ready, yet was kept in the majors even when it was obvious he didn't have confidence on the mound.

[MarlinsLou]

That "article" is terrible. I'll let others explain why.

 

I don't have the time or effort to deal with this right now, especially not to this putz who makes this thread every 3 months unprovoked. But well continue to ignore their prospect status, and continue to ignore the Marlins never had a legitimate offer from the Dodgers or Angels and it's all speculation, and we'll continue to ignore Maybin and Miller are both still very young.

 

That article is stupid, whoever wrote it is stupid and didn't realize the financial ramifications of the trade besides the bounty and is writing in exclusive hindsight bias. Trades are judged at the time of trade too. The Marlins weren't ripped off, but it also didn't work out. Big difference.

 

No one, I mean no one, is happy Maybin isn't playing like Beltran and Miller like at least J Sanchez, but jesus christ enough of this already.

 

If this needs to be criticized, blame Beinfest (or Loria who is the bigger culprit) for not buying out Cabs arbitration in 2005. The trade wasn't the problem. Ownership cheapness and/or the front offices insistence of not buying out arbitration years was the problem. That's that. How many more times do we need to do this?

[Erick]

I think it's time to move on.

[SilverBullet]

That "article" is terrible. I'll let others explain why.

 

I don't have the time or effort to deal with this right now, especially not to this putz who makes this thread every 3 months unprovoked. But well continue to ignore their prospect status, and continue to ignore the Marlins never had a legitimate offer from the Dodgers or Angels and it's all speculation, and we'll continue to ignore Maybin and Miller are both still very young.

 

That article is stupid, whoever wrote it is stupid and didn't realize the financial ramifications of the trade besides the bounty and is writing in exclusive hindsight bias. Trades are judged at the time of trade too. The Marlins weren't ripped off, but it also didn't work out. Big difference.

 

No one, I mean no one, is happy Maybin isn't playing like Beltran and Miller like at least J Sanchez, but jesus christ enough of this already.

 

If this needs to be criticized, blame Beinfest (or Loria who is the bigger culprit) for not buying out Cabs arbitration in 2005. The trade wasn't the problem. Ownership cheapness and/or the front offices insistence of not buying out arbitration years was the problem. That's that. How many more times do we need to do this?

 

 

I think it's time to move on.

 

 

All of this. The end.

[fanofthefish]

My problem with this trade has always been I didn't feel we got enough in it. I know Maybin and Miller were off the chart prospects, but I certainly believed that Miggy was worth both of them and more. D-Train who was coming off a down year but still looked like he was a capable Big League pitcher could have merited at least one of those two players alone. I know this is one of those bad trades just based on Miggy alone, but maybe Maybin will one day be a viable player.

[Sirspud]

I really don't know if it is time to move on. Too many people here thing we should worship the ground that Beinfest walks on for bringing us even to mediocrity with a tiny payroll. I disagree, and the mishandling of a guy who was an obvious HOF caliber talent is easily the biggest reason why we haven't been able to take a solid group of talent in 2006 into a playoff team. That, and of course giving away guys like Willingham.

 

In Cabrera, Beinfest had one of the best hitters of his generation. Fifty years from now, Cabrera will be a legend. Beinfest knew that, and other GM's knew that. There should never be a situation where a player like that, with no real discipline or attitude issues to speak of, should be on the market without leverage. If you're a GM, you should be able to create leverage because who on Earth doesn't want a guy who proved he was one of the best hitters in the league in his age 21 season. That the most useful piece of that trade has turned out to be Burke Badenhop is crazy.

 

If the GM here weren't still Beinfest, and I wasn't being told I should worship him, maybe I'd give it up.

[Erick]

My problem with this trade has always been I didn't feel we got enough in it. I know Maybin and Miller were off the chart prospects, but I certainly believed that Miggy was worth both of them and more. D-Train who was coming off a down year but still looked like he was a capable Big League pitcher could have merited at least one of those two players alone. I know this is one of those bad trades just based on Miggy alone, but maybe Maybin will one day be a viable player.

 

 

 

At the time of the trade, there were question marks about Cabrera's weight and work ethic. I believe even guys (friends) like Ozzie Guillen stated that he wouldn't be in the big leagues if he didn't take his time to work hard, and lose weight. Two top ten prospects is about as good as it gets for a player.

 

Seriously, hindsight is 20/20 and the trade clearly sucks now, but at the time Maybin projected to be a future 5 tool CF'er (still possible...although I will say I don't believe he has great power), and Miller projected to be a future ace (unlikely, but that was the projection).

 

I had more of a problem receiving Bonifacio for our starting LF'er (Willingham) and a guy who was a part of our rotation (Olsen), at the time. The value in that trade was worse than the Cabrera trade, at the times the respective deals were made.

 

Then again, this is just another case of the bad trades always being talked about, while the good moves rarely ever get noticed. Beinfest must be doing something right; the team is respectable despite the fact that he has to deal with a crap payroll every year.

[Admin]

Saying that he was headed toward being out of baseball due to his weight is a stretch. It was obvious that he would need to be moving to first from third due to his weight, but he wasn't going to be incapacitated. I actually advocated moving Cabrera to first during 2006 and 2007 and was mocked here for it.

 

I don't even think everyone is operating in hindsight, either. Like I said earlier, there was some concern that the talent wasn't going to deliver. Virtually any of the Dodgers prospects were more likely to pan out. The Marlins just needed to stop asking for the entire farm. It seemed like they wanted Ethier, Kemp, Kershaw, and Billingsley when they should have only been asking for two of the four. If you look back at the rumors surrounding the LA offers, the Marlins wanted basically this entire core. This is why there was never really an offer with LA on the table. The Marlins were asking too much and were being unreasonable. They easily could have gotten Billingsley and Kemp/Ethier I would guess.

[Erick]

Saying that he was headed toward being out of baseball due to his weight is a stretch. It was obvious that he would need to be moving to first from third due to his weight, but he wasn't going to be incapacitated. I actually advocated moving Cabrera to first during 2006 and 2007 and was mocked here for it.

 

I don't even think everyone is operating in hindsight, either. Like I said earlier, there was some concern that the talent wasn't going to deliver. Virtually any of the Dodgers prospects were more likely to pan out. The Marlins just needed to stop asking for the entire farm. It seemed like they wanted Ethier, Kemp, Kershaw, and Billingsley when they should have only been asking for two of the four. If you look back at the rumors surrounding the LA offers, the Marlins wanted basically this entire core. This is why there was never really an offer with LA on the table. The Marlins were asking too much and were being unreasonable. They easily could have gotten Billingsley and Kemp/Ethier I would guess.

 

 

 

At the time, Maybin and Miller were considered the better prospect duo over Billingsley and Kemp/Ethier.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html

 

Two top 10 prospects.

 

The Dodgers trade gave us a great prospect in Billingsley, who also projected to be an ace, but in terms of potential at the time of the trade Maybin's value was a lot better than Kemp's or Ethier's.

 

It's just easy to criticize now because it hasn't panned out.

[Admin]

Huh? :blink:

 

How are you saying that Miller and Maybin were more highly regarded at the time when Billingsley, Kemp, and Ethier aren't on the list? They weren't on the list because they were no longer considered prospects and had some ML playing time already (and quite good stints). This is precisely why the Marlins should have gone after these guys over Maybin and Miller because they were already showing signs of getting it done.

 

The BA rankings say very little. Being ranked in the top ten does not change the fact there is still a great deal of risk involved. Arguably Maybin and Miller at their stage of development and minor leauge sampling size (despite being in the top ten) were higher risk prospects than guys like Kemp or Billingsley were. If I'm not mistaken, the Marlins got Maybin with hardly any AA at bats under his belt and Miller had virtually no minor league career at all. I'm guessing raw talent primarily helped their placement in the rankings, but that makes their success probability nearly as dubious as that of any first round draft pick. I don't think at the time, the rankings of Miller or Maybin could have been made with much confidence.