Re: Helms vs. Tracy

 

Unlike some people, I don't discount defensive statistics. However, I give them less credibility when the sampling size is incredibly small. Under 1000 innings is bad, but under 400 makes them nearly insignficant. So anything post 2006 for Tracy and post 2007 for Helms, I wouldn't give much weight. While one could assume that Tracy's injury problems have slowed him down at the corner, that's still just an assumption. He looked pretty good out there and more impressive than what I've seen from Helms this season. I was confused as to why he was lifted for Helms even before he bounced that throw in the dirt.

 

 

 

Helms did not bounce that throw in the dirt, Gaby just flat out missed the low catch.

I don't quite see how the description was inaccurate after looking at the replay. Sanchez should have had it and the error is on him, but Wes made a poor throw in the dirt that skids away as Gaby misses it. It should have been handled, but it was still a poor throw.

I think he would be the best pitcher on the padres, rays, red sox, and Rockies. He would arguably be the best pitcher on the braves or Yankees. And he would probably be the 2nd best pitcher on the cards.

 

Either way, what's your point? Even if he would be worse than the number 1 on each of those teams, he's still better than about 140 other starters in baseball, and is one of the top 15. How is that an issue?

 

His last 3 season numbers are better than most of the players you listed anyways.

 

 

 

My point, and the point of others, is that Johnson is a very good but not an elite pitcher.

 

When Johnson starts, everyone is hoping he pitches into the seventh inning.

 

That is not an elite pitcher.

 

I am glad he is on the Marlins.

 

But Johnson is not a big game, postseason dominating type of pitcher.

 

Maybe he will become one.

 

When Johnson starts, everyone expects big league hitters to look like children. I'm afraid I don't see your point, especially given JJ's crazy low ERA.

The best bullpen in the league is the Padres bullpen. Most of their guys are minimum salary guys. We don't need to overspend for a bullpen; we just need to find the right guys.

 

You also have to remember who their manager is. A former major league pitcher who had an alright career.

 

MLB Rankings for the Padres....

 

Pitching - 1st

Defense - 3rd

Stolen Bases - 3rd

Offense - 25th

 

This on an Opening Day payroll of about $38 mil. To make it clearer, they have pitching, defense, speed, and youth.

 

But our fans like bats.

 

This. Great post. My thoughts exactly. We are almost handcuffed by the fans.

Johnson would not be the number one starter on the Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals (or number two), Giants, Padres, Rays, Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies or Braves.

 

Phillies: Yeah, Roy Halladay exists

Rangers: Cliff "No BB" Lee also exists but JJ's been better over the last two seasons.

Cardinals: I think you can throw them all in a bag, pick whoever you want, and that's your rotation order. Wainwright wins here but you can put JJ ahead of Carp and visa versa.

Giants: Lincecum. Yeah, down year but Lincecum.

Padres: I'm taking JJ all the way on this. Latos has been flat out amazing but I'm not just putting a 23 year old up there on a pedestal based on 1 year.

Rays: JJ's better than Price, that's a very easy argument to make.

Yankees: He's better than CC too, just paid less.

Mariners: Taking King Felix here.

Red Sox: I'm taking him over whoever you want to say, Lackey who's fallen off and wasn't as good as JJ last year either, Beckett who's never been as good as JJ is, Lester who's good but hasn't been JJ good, or Buchholz who's having his first good season and it's not a ton better than JJ's. But I can see the argument the other way.

Rockies: You might have had an argument back at the break (not much of one really) but JJ's been better, both this year and the last couple years, than Ubaldo.

Braves: I think you can go either way on this, they're numbers are very similar. Hudson and JJ are having basically the same season and had similar numbers last year though Hudson was out recovering from TJ for most of that.

 

So there ya go. The way I see it you've got it on the Phillies, Cards, Giants and Mariners. The Braves and Red Sox are a split.

 

JJ is 3rd in ERA+ this year, 7th over the last 2 years, and 8th over the last 3 years. In WHIP he's 8th this year, 5th over the last 2 years, and 10th over the last 3 years.

 

I really don't see how you can say he's not a "dominating type" pitcher.

I think he would be the best pitcher on the padres, rays, red sox, and Rockies. He would arguably be the best pitcher on the braves or Yankees. And he would probably be the 2nd best pitcher on the cards.

 

Either way, what's your point? Even if he would be worse than the number 1 on each of those teams, he's still better than about 140 other starters in baseball, and is one of the top 15. How is that an issue?

 

His last 3 season numbers are better than most of the players you listed anyways.

 

 

 

My point, and the point of others, is that Johnson is a very good but not an elite pitcher.

 

When Johnson starts, everyone is hoping he pitches into the seventh inning.

 

That is not an elite pitcher.

 

I am glad he is on the Marlins.

 

But Johnson is not a big game, postseason dominating type of pitcher.

 

Maybe he will become one.

 

 

Yes. This has clearly been proven as well, since he's never gotten a chance to pitch in the postseason. What a load of sh*t. Roy Halladay isn't a big game, postseason dominating type of pitcher either...he's never been there.

 

Your post was so silly that I don't even care to bother with BroncoBob's posts about offense, anymore.

 

Also, as gizmo has already stated, perhaps he'd get deeper into games if his defense made routine plays behjnd him, resulting in lower pitch counts. He's better than the aces on all the teams you mentioned, except for maybe a couple of those guys. Get a clue.

Johnson has the third best RAR value for a starting pitcher (based upon FIP) for 2010. Halladay is the best, but Johnson is just 0.2 behind Cliff Lee.

 

What makes Halladay so great is that he's such a horse and nobody really compares to him in that respect. He's a type of pitcher that doesn't really belong in this era.

You also have to remember who their manager is. A former major league pitcher who had an alright career.

 

 

MLB Rankings for the Padres....

 

Pitching - 1st

Defense - 3rd

Stolen Bases - 3rd

Offense - 25th

Like I mentioned earlier, it's as if they have two pitching coaches with Bud Black and whoever their pitching coach is.

Two heads are better than one, and if they can mesh ideas and mix things up, give each other ideas as to what can be done, then success will probably follow, which in this case for the Padres, it has.

If they can continue this next season with pitching and get a couple bats to surround Gonzalez, then you've got a team possibly winning over 100 games. They're on pace for around 95-98 this year, if I remember correctly.

 

But, with the Marlins, I'm not sure what to expect any more. I know there will be a solid line-up next season, but the infield needs to go back to what Perry Hill taught them before he retired or something.

 

Any idea when Castillo is planning on retiring? What about maybe bringing him on as an infield coach?

The best bullpen in the league is the Padres bullpen. Most of their guys are minimum salary guys. We don't need to overspend for a bullpen; we just need to find the right guys.

 

 

And that falls on the shoulders of Hill & Beinfest. The last 2 or 3 years they have made mostly disasterous decisions for the club on the field at the moment, and I blame them for the failures. They need to start putting together a team for 2012. Loria does not want that to be a mediocre or worse year in the new stadium. LoMo, Stanton, Coglan and locking up JJ, Hanley and possibly Uggla are good things but they need to really get it together and scout out some FA's or trades that can make that BP better. There is no guarantee that some of the guys do as well at the plate or better next year. If they stink the joint up at the plate and also have a disaster in the BP, Loria will contemplate some front office changes I am sure.

 

 

 

The Padres Bullpen, Erick ignores that these guys were developed in their system. It was evident that the Marlins did not have those guys already in hand, so the point is moot.

 

An entire first place team's BP could be had for less than $10M more than the Marlins are paying. Nunez, Ohman, Putz, Dotel, Oliver, Hensley, Badenhop seems good to me. Considering that some of these guys went to perennial bottom-dwellers it isn't like Florida would somehow offend their sensibilities. That is just a 5 minute look at free agents from last season.

 

It is not my money, and the Fish only managed $3M in Net Income last year, so the realities of the finances might come into play, but I have to think first place and a playoff run could be worth $7M+. Even if not, to say that the team "couldn't" is pretty freaking dumb. Great teams are just like the good teams just with better benches and bullpens.

But, with the Marlins, I'm not sure what to expect any more. I know there will be a solid line-up next season, but the infield needs to go back to what Perry Hill taught them before he retired or something.

 

 

I can't imagine that Coghlan is going to be anywhere near as appalling as Cantu at 3B.

But, with the Marlins, I'm not sure what to expect any more. I know there will be a solid line-up next season, but the infield needs to go back to what Perry Hill taught them before he retired or something.

 

 

I can't imagine that Coghlan is going to be anywhere near as appalling as Cantu at 3B.

I know that, but when Perry Hill was here, defense in the infield was amazinginging ish

The best bullpen in the league is the Padres bullpen. Most of their guys are minimum salary guys. We don't need to overspend for a bullpen; we just need to find the right guys.

 

 

And that falls on the shoulders of Hill & Beinfest. The last 2 or 3 years they have made mostly disasterous decisions for the club on the field at the moment, and I blame them for the failures. They need to start putting together a team for 2012. Loria does not want that to be a mediocre or worse year in the new stadium. LoMo, Stanton, Coglan and locking up JJ, Hanley and possibly Uggla are good things but they need to really get it together and scout out some FA's or trades that can make that BP better. There is no guarantee that some of the guys do as well at the plate or better next year. If they stink the joint up at the plate and also have a disaster in the BP, Loria will contemplate some front office changes I am sure.

 

 

 

The Padres Bullpen, Erick ignores that these guys were developed in their system.

 

 

 

Really? That's funny. Perhaps you should check again. Pretty much all of their guys came from either cheap signings (Bell) or trades that worked out (Adams, Gregersen, Thatcher).

lol, you know the season is over when people are arguing about whether JJ is an elite pitcher. People are becoming delirious.

 

Not debatable, seriously. JJ is the definition of an elite pitcher, end of discussion. Arguments could be made for other pitchers, but I believe the only pitchers who are better than JJ right now are Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Felix Hernandez (I'm saying best pitcher overall, not just this seasons numbers , since if we went by that Wainwright would be better than JJ).

 

I don't need any fancy schmancy stats to know for a fact that JJ is a top 5 pitcher in the majors today without a question.

lol, you know the season is over when people are arguing about whether JJ is an elite pitcher. People are becoming delirious.

 

Not debatable, seriously. JJ is the definition of an elite pitcher, end of discussion. Arguments could be made for other pitchers, but I believe the only pitchers who are better than JJ right now are Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Felix Hernandez (I'm saying best pitcher overall, not just this seasons numbers , since if we went by that Wainwright would be better than JJ).

 

I don't need any fancy schmancy stats to for a fact that JJ is a top 5 pitcher in the majors today without a question.

 

Don't worry though, the fancy schmancy stats agree with you.

He's without question a top 10 pitcher but it's debatable whether he's a top 5.

I don't think it's the result of the season being effectively over; the leaked documents brought in some people from the sewers.

He's without question a top 10 pitcher but it's debatable whether he's a top 5.

 

Going by FIP numbers, he's #3 so in that respect it's not debatable. He's a top 5 guy for 2010 season. If you want to consider overall talent, then yes, it's debatable.

He's without question a top 10 pitcher but it's debatable whether he's a top 5.

 

Going by FIP numbers, he's #3 so in that respect it's not debatable. He's a top 5 guy for 2010 season. If you want to consider overall talent, then yes, it's debatable.

I don't go by FIP and I don't go just based on 130 games... at least go by a couple of years worth of performance. If you're going to use just one stat I would use ERA+. Do you consider FIP over 130 games to be a be-all end-all type of stat?

He's without question a top 10 pitcher but it's debatable whether he's a top 5.

 

Going by FIP numbers, he's #3 so in that respect it's not debatable. He's a top 5 guy for 2010 season. If you want to consider overall talent, then yes, it's debatable.

I don't go by FIP and I don't go just based on 130 games... at least go by a couple of years worth of performance. If you're going to use just one stat I would use ERA+. Do you consider FIP over 130 games to be a be-all end-all type of stat?

Because I hypothetically assumed we were framing this around 2010 and ERA+ only addresses earned runs. Using pitching value based on things like FIP is more comprehensive.

I would never frame who the best players are over a 130 game sample size. Go by two or three seasons. Also, I'm not a fan of FIP because it ignores almost all batted balls and also ignores homerun park factors which is very important given that homeruns allowed make up so much of the FIP number but I agree that it's debatable what's preferable between FIP and ERA+. To me it's obvious but it's debatable. However FIP over 130 games DOESN'T determine who the best pitchers are and this is not debatable.

So with all this talk about pitchers, does anyone think we could actually get a better pitcher than JJ? Keeping in mind that we're the Marlins and we certainly can't afford the best-of-the-best. As for offense/defense, let's face it..Logan, Coghlan, Stanton, (hopefully Uggla), Hanley, and maybe Maybin will be with us for a long time down the stretch (not sure about Gaby). They will give us offense, and that's good to know. But their defense isn't the best. Logan makes me nervous at times playing in left. He has made some incredibly nice diving catches, but you know what? Those catches could've easily have been missed and in which case would've given the other team extra bases had he not caught them. Some outfielders will let the ball bounce and give the hitter a hit in compensation with ensuring that they get the ball while some will make those diving, risky catches and hope they come up with the ball. It obviously depends on the situation but I hope you understand what I'm talking about. These guys will be with us for at least two years if none are traded in some amazing-can't-resist trade. I only hope their defense improves. Give me a player that's 50/50 with defense and offense and I'm satisfied. We could have the best-gold-glove defensive player on our team, but if he flat out sucks at hitting, then how much does he really help the team? To me, he may be a wall defensively, but he's a hole in our offense.

 

In any case, if we're talking fantasy baseball or something, that's one thing. But we're not going to have a say in what the Marlins future will be. They're going to keep these guys and we're going to have to hope they can get better both defensively and offensively. Stanton needs to just wake up already and I don't want to give up hope with him. I think Hermida just made me a bit more weary of believing in the too-good-to-be-true players. But I'm trying not to think of it because Stanton is a rookie and it'll take time for him to get used to the majors. But after 2011, if he's still the way he is, should we get worried then? Logan has shown great patience and had some really great at-bats so far and he's been up less time than Stanton. As for JJ, he's a great pitcher. Maybe not the best but come on, do you think we have a better pitcher or could get a better pitcher? Ricky and Anibal are really good pitchers and I'm glad to have them on our team but they can be inconsistent at times. I just think JJ does better in the first half of the year than the second half, but that's my observation.

I personally guarantee Stanton will not go 1 for 30 whatever the majority of time in his career.

 

Stanton's history shows he's a player that needs an adjustment period. Once he has that adjustment period, he will thrive. Stanton should be the least of our problems in terms of next year.

 

The #2-5 guys in the rotation and the bullpen should be the main focus heading into next season (also improve the defense, but that's coaching, not something the front office can really fix right now).

 

Simply put, the starting lineup looks really good, but the pitching is nowhere near where it needs to be, and although it's totally cliche, pitching and defense is what wins you games.

Would you say I'm a) crazy or b) pessimistic if I say that I don't really believe that the Marlins will fix our holes for next year. I do believe they will make some improvements or at least try with the bullpen, but I don't see significant changes in our starting pitching next year. I really hope I'm wrong though. I just feel pessimistic at times with the Marlins. They'll patch some things I'm sure.

Would you say I'm a) crazy or b) pessimistic if I say that I don't really believe that the Marlins will fix our holes for next year. I do believe they will make some improvements or at least try with the bullpen, but I don't see significant changes in our starting pitching next year. I really hope I'm wrong though. I just feel pessimistic at times with the Marlins. They'll patch some things I'm sure.

 

 

I agree.

 

Marlins are pointing toward 2012.

 

They will not add any significant pitching in 2011.

 

Any improvements will come from the system.

 

It seems to me that improvement could come with two really good performances by starters at Jacksonville (in addition to Sanabia) along with Ceda at least ready for a shot.

 

Marlins may cut Nunez and his arb millions loose and give the ninth to Ceda next year.

lol, you know the season is over when people are arguing about whether JJ is an elite pitcher. People are becoming delirious.

 

Not debatable, seriously. JJ is the definition of an elite pitcher, end of discussion. Arguments could be made for other pitchers, but I believe the only pitchers who are better than JJ right now are Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Felix Hernandez (I'm saying best pitcher overall, not just this seasons numbers , since if we went by that Wainwright would be better than JJ).

 

I don't need any fancy schmancy stats to for a fact that JJ is a top 5 pitcher in the majors today without a question.

 

Don't worry though, the fancy schmancy stats agree with you.

 

Yes, the fancy stats don't really value the difference between a pitcher who can go into the 8th consistently compared to a guy who usually goes 6-7 innings.

lol, you know the season is over when people are arguing about whether JJ is an elite pitcher. People are becoming delirious.

 

Not debatable, seriously. JJ is the definition of an elite pitcher, end of discussion. Arguments could be made for other pitchers, but I believe the only pitchers who are better than JJ right now are Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Felix Hernandez (I'm saying best pitcher overall, not just this seasons numbers , since if we went by that Wainwright would be better than JJ).

 

I don't need any fancy schmancy stats to for a fact that JJ is a top 5 pitcher in the majors today without a question.

 

Don't worry though, the fancy schmancy stats agree with you.

 

Yes, the fancy stats don't really value the difference between a pitcher who can go into the 8th consistently compared to a guy who usually goes 6-7 innings.

While I don't particularly like it (especially for hitters), WAR does. 6-7 fantastic innings are worth more than 8 okay innings. WAR has him 2nd.

 

BTW, noone not named Doc, Lee, or King Felix consistently go 8 innings.

 

JJ's tied for 8th in games of 8 innings or more with 7, only those guys I mentioned have more than 9 (Lee 15, Doc 14, Felix 12).