This is an ESPN Insider only article, so I'll have to post the cliffnotes version of what they're saying. Starting last year ESPN began profiling teams that had been eliminated from the playoffs, starting with the worst teams. As the playoffs continue and teams get eliminated, those articles are released as well. The other day they posted the Marlins' season recap and projections looking into 2011.

 

Here's what they came up with:

 

The Good News

-Emergence of Gaby Sanchez, LoMo, and Stanton this year

-Uggla continuing to produce

-Anibal Sanchez coming back strong after years of injury

-Josh Johnson living up to the contract he just signed

-Chris Coghlan unlikely to get into a stranger freak injury in 2011

 

The Bad News

-Managerial turmoil/Bobby-V incident

-Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen (19th in MLB ERA, 2nd in blown saves in 2010)

-Leo Nunez not yet proving himself as a reliable closer (fits into the last thing)

-The financial leaks showing that the Marlins have been pocketing revenue sharing money (although the article basically goes on to say that they believe pressure from MLB is going to force them to finally spend some money this year to avoid further embarrassment)

-The failure of the Miguel Cabrera trade (ie. lack of production from Maybin and Miller)

 

There's also more discussion of the whole finances thing, as well as talk about likely managerial replacements (they believe that Edwin Rodriguez will not be back based on the team's poor end to the year). The names mentioned as possibilities to manage have all been heard before, but they list Ozzie Guillen, Tony Pena, and back-end candidates like Admin Bowa and Wally Backman (doubt either of those will happen).

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5613618

How are injuries not part of the Bad News section?

 

Our entire season went completely downhill soon after the Chris Coghlan pie in the face mess, soon followed by Nolasco's shoe tying problems, Murphy's wrist, JJ's back, Hanley's knee, Baker's shoulder, Hayes shoulder, not to mention some of the other not as notable injuries (Marinez off the top of my head).

 

Even with the bullpen issues, I think we still had a shot at the playoffs if it wasn't for so many injuries.

 

And to say Edwin shouldn't be back because of a poor finish to the season is crap. Right now he's working with mostly the "B" team. If Loria and company don't see that then they need to get their heads out of their ass.

I think it's time to go back to the season grade prediction thread and see how we all faired.

They mentioned injuries more in the article than I mentioned, sorry about that...

How are injuries not part of the Bad News section?

 

Our entire season went completely downhill soon after the Chris Coghlan pie in the face mess, soon followed by Nolasco's shoe tying problems, Murphy's wrist, JJ's back, Hanley's knee, Baker's shoulder, Hayes shoulder, not to mention some of the other not as notable injuries (Marinez off the top of my head).

 

Even with the bullpen issues, I think we still had a shot at the playoffs if it wasn't for so many injuries.

 

And to say Edwin shouldn't be back because of a poor finish to the season is crap. Right now he's working with mostly the "B" team. If Loria and company don't see that then they need to get their heads out of their ass.

 

 

Some poor finish to the season. We're right at .500 and we've been doing this with guys who aren't even good AAA players the last couple weeks. There's certainly a possibility that Edwin won't be back, but there's no way that the circus we've had up here in September can be held against him.

 

In all honesty, it wouldn't surprise me if seeing guys like Sinkbeil up here wasn't influenced by the team wanting to have Edwin struggle a little bit so it would be easier for them to bring in a guy that they really want. It may sound outlandish but crazier things have happened, and with the way this franchise is run it certainly is possible.

 

Honestly, I can't think of any other reason why Sinkbeil should be up right now.

Meh. I truly hope those financial document leaks make them spend more money (even though the whole thing was twisted to begin with.)

Meh. I truly hope those financial document leaks make them spend more money (even though the whole thing was twisted to begin with.)

 

 

It was also legitimately explained. But of course that will continue to be ignored. Just like the mini fiasco at the start of the season. The players union, MLB, and the Marlins said nothing illegal had been done. But did that get attention? Of course not. Not even by the ones here that constantly rip the FO, or use that as an excuse as to why they were wrong with their predictions of this year's salary.

 

Ever hear about the payroll and spending habits of teams like the Padres? Probably not. At least not much. My theory is because the Padres have never won a WS vs media darlings such as the Yankees. The northeast fueled media bias has a long memory. But not to be overlooked, the media is largely made up of former players and managers that want all teams to spend, spend, spend. It's good for the "brotherhood", so to speak.

But not to be overlooked, the media is largely made up of former players and managers that want all teams to spend, spend, spend. It's good for the "brotherhood", so to speak.

 

Good point. Union hacks always want more than their market value. Umps, players, doesn't matter. Ex-players participate on the periphery of the extortion as coaches and managers and have no reason to speak up in favor of paying fans.

 

The solution is a total free market. No "club controlled" years, no arbitration years. Everyone is a free agent every year. Pure competition.

 

Got a hot young prospect? Sign him for 5 or 10 years. Not so hot? Sign him for 2 or 3 years. The market will work it out.

 

The bottom line is that player value will approach true marginal value (probably about half of current values) and fans will ultimately benefit.

Wonder what our record would currently be if Fredi was still here. Better or worse, whats the verdict?

Meh. I truly hope those financial document leaks make them spend more money (even though the whole thing was twisted to begin with.)

 

 

It was also legitimately explained. But of course that will continue to be ignored. Just like the mini fiasco at the start of the season. The players union, MLB, and the Marlins said nothing illegal had been done. But did that get attention? Of course not. Not even by the ones here that constantly rip the FO, or use that as an excuse as to why they were wrong with their predictions of this year's salary.

 

Ever hear about the payroll and spending habits of teams like the Padres? Probably not. At least not much. My theory is because the Padres have never won a WS vs media darlings such as the Yankees. The northeast fueled media bias has a long memory. But not to be overlooked, the media is largely made up of former players and managers that want all teams to spend, spend, spend. It's good for the "brotherhood", so to speak.

You obviously didn't read the topic on the leaked statements. If you had, you'd realize that I knew the facts were twisted by the media. I still hope they spend more money though. I want a good team. If Loria is forced to spend more than he should, I wouldn't be too heartbroken about it.

The good news should include Hensley. The bad news should include Hanley, Cantu, Cody, Coghlan, Nolasco and Baker / Paulino performing below what was expected out of them. The financial leaks should be in the good news.

Baker had 78 ABs. He shouldn't be mentioned.

 

Gaby Sanchez proving Spike wrong should be good news.

Gaby Sanchez proving Spike wrong should be good news.

 

Well this happens so often that I think they just looked over it.

Wonder what our record would currently be if Fredi was still here. Better or worse, whats the verdict?

 

 

Worse :thumbup At least no more deer in the headlight looks from Gonzalez :whistle

But not to be overlooked, the media is largely made up of former players and managers that want all teams to spend, spend, spend. It's good for the "brotherhood", so to speak.

 

Good point. Union hacks always want more than their market value. Umps, players, doesn't matter. Ex-players participate on the periphery of the extortion as coaches and managers and have no reason to speak up in favor of paying fans.

 

The solution is a total free market. No "club controlled" years, no arbitration years. Everyone is a free agent every year. Pure competition.

 

Got a hot young prospect? Sign him for 5 or 10 years. Not so hot? Sign him for 2 or 3 years. The market will work it out.

 

The bottom line is that player value will approach true marginal value (probably about half of current values) and fans will ultimately benefit.

 

If anything, club-controlled years keep costs down FWIW.

 

It's certainly true that unions nearly always, if not always, drive up labor costs, which will drive up the cost of the good, at least in the short term, possibly until the company/battling the industry is no longer economically viable. Baseball is still raking in the profits, though. And it's pretty dang close to a monopoly with limited substitutes.

 

I have no idea where the real market would be. I'm curious to hear how you derive your estimate of 1/2?

The good news should include Hensley. The bad news should include Hanley, Cantu, Cody, Coghlan, Nolasco and Baker / Paulino performing below what was expected out of them. The financial leaks should be in the good news.

 

 

 

 

 

Paulino didn't underperform.

The good news should include Hensley. The bad news should include Hanley, Cantu, Cody, Coghlan, Nolasco and Baker / Paulino performing below what was expected out of them. The financial leaks should be in the good news.

 

 

 

 

 

Paulino didn't underperform.

One could say he did, but given that he was just getting overworked out there, I do understand your disagreement.

As someone who probably agrees with his overall economic philosophy, I too would like to see unions out of baseball.

 

Abolishing the MLBPA (which won't happen, but it's nice to hope) would do a bunch of good. Current salaries are way too high. It's fine if an ownership group and a player want to enter into a voluntary contract to whatever amount, but there should be some coercive entity setting the minimum salaries and strong arming arbitration salaries.

 

The major league minimum is something like $400k right now. I could easily envision the minimum being half of that (or less) as market rate. Being payed that much to play a game is a dream come true. If players should be earning more than $100k, allow competition and demand for their talent to drive the salaries up.

 

This would do so much for baseball. The smaller market teams would generate the same revenue through merchandise and ticket sales but would have less payroll expenses. This would put teams like Tampa and Florida in a better position with the big market teams like New York.

If anything, club-controlled years keep costs down FWIW.

 

I think the concern here is that the arbitration process that drives up costs. It's a bit senseless to remove that and just keep the club controlled years.

 

The alternative would be for clubs to essentially negotiate contract terms freely (including years) for young players. Hypothetically this means that the Marlins could essentially offer Mike Stanton some eight year deal right away, without needing to pay him or buy out his arbitration.

 

How this would be practically implemented, I do not know as I haven't given it a ton of thought. The terms for ML contract status would presumably agreed upon long before he's called up (and possibly when he's first signed).

Baker had 78 ABs. He shouldn't be mentioned.

 

Gaby Sanchez proving Spike wrong should be good news.

 

How about you being proven wrong about Andrew Miller? You've insinuated more than once that he could be the next Roy Halladay, ignoring that his career model is perhaps one in a million.

how you derive your estimate of 1/2?

 

It's just a guess, but consider the world with no MLBPA. No minimum salaries. No inflated arbitration awards. No requirement to deal with agents. No 100 bucks a day per head for meals on the road. That last one may sound like nit-picking, but just that tiny little item collectively costs MLB clubs $6 million a year.

 

The minimum salary is perhaps the most obvious distortion. One day a guy is worth $70K and the next he's worth $400K? Obviously not. The Marlins typically have had about 15 guys at or very near the minimum. If a team like the Marlins had been able to sign guys like Stanton or LoMo or Cogs (or Cabrera for that matter) to multi-year contracts that paid them around $100K in the first year or two or three of their ML time, it would leave them about $4.5 million to spend on other players, or to reduce ticket prices to increase attendance, etc.

 

With the ability to give very attractive 5 or 7 or 10 year (or even longer) contracts to young prospects, guys like Hanley could be playing for 1 or 2 million instead of 7. Cabrera could still be here for a mill or two or three instead of in Detroit for 20. To a kid in DR or Venezuela or even here, an offer to pay you millions of dollars over 10 (or however many) years as long as you meet some minimum performance standards is an offer most won't refuse. But, of course, you could and go year by year, you're a free agent from day one.

 

After players have played out their first contract, they'd be free to negotiate a new contract for however many years, and the mature free agent market might look a lot like today's. In any case, the vast majority of players would be under contract for far, far less than half of what we now have. It's quite possible that the total payout to players would be about half what it is now. I'd guess that result would drop ticket prices by 30 to 40%, as all of the other rather large fixed costs wouldn't change.

 

Not to mention that players now get paid a total of about 2.5 billion and agents suck up something like 10% of that amount. So there's another $250 million that needlessly comes out of fans' pockets.

 

Did I mention that I hate unions?

 

:lol

Baker had 78 ABs. He shouldn't be mentioned.

 

Gaby Sanchez proving Spike wrong should be good news.

 

How about you being proven wrong about Andrew Miller? You've insinuated more than once that he could be the next Roy Halladay, ignoring that his career model is perhaps one in a million.

 

Ok. I was wrong. Want a cookie?

The good news should include Hensley. The bad news should include Hanley, Cantu, Cody, Coghlan, Nolasco and Baker / Paulino performing below what was expected out of them. The financial leaks should be in the good news.

 

 

 

 

 

Paulino didn't underperform.

One could say he did, but given that he was just getting overworked out there, I do understand your disagreement.

 

Paulino had an .896 .OPS against left-handed pitching.

It's not his fault that Baker struggled and got hurt, forcing him (Paulino) to catch everyday.

 

If we're talking about player expectations compared to player performance, I don't see how Paulino underperformed, by any means.

Meh. I truly hope those financial document leaks make them spend more money (even though the whole thing was twisted to begin with.)

 

 

It was also legitimately explained. But of course that will continue to be ignored. Just like the mini fiasco at the start of the season. The players union, MLB, and the Marlins said nothing illegal had been done. But did that get attention? Of course not. Not even by the ones here that constantly rip the FO, or use that as an excuse as to why they were wrong with their predictions of this year's salary.

 

Ever hear about the payroll and spending habits of teams like the Padres? Probably not. At least not much. My theory is because the Padres have never won a WS vs media darlings such as the Yankees. The northeast fueled media bias has a long memory. But not to be overlooked, the media is largely made up of former players and managers that want all teams to spend, spend, spend. It's good for the "brotherhood", so to speak.

You obviously didn't read the topic on the leaked statements. If you had, you'd realize that I knew the facts were twisted by the media. I still hope they spend more money though. I want a good team. If Loria is forced to spend more than he should, I wouldn't be too heartbroken about it.

 

You did outright say that in your post. I got it. I was agreeing with you, only expanding on the thought.

 

I doubt Loria is going to be forced to spend more than he should. All parties concerned said payroll had been set before that preseason media fiasco. And the team took it's time and then explained away all the falsehoods and hidden agendas that surrounded the document leaking. Their reaction just wasn't as well publisized. Even by the local media. And it is the local media that I blame the most for the poor public conception of how things are done within this org.

The good news should include Hensley. The bad news should include Hanley, Cantu, Cody, Coghlan, Nolasco and Baker / Paulino performing below what was expected out of them. The financial leaks should be in the good news.

 

 

 

 

 

Paulino didn't underperform.

One could say he did, but given that he was just getting overworked out there, I do understand your disagreement.

 

Paulino had an .896 .OPS against left-handed pitching.

It's not his fault that Baker struggled and got hurt, forcing him (Paulino) to catch everyday.

 

If we're talking about player expectations compared to player performance, I don't see how Paulino underperformed, by any means.

 

I am agreeing with you to a point. The contradiction would be, that's not what forced him into playing almost every day. The unwillingness of Fredi and his staff to allow anyone else to start did that. It was one of the few problems I had with Fredi. We have guys that can field that position nicely. Hayes probably better than the rest. There comes a time when you have to give up on the bat so you don't just completely wear down your catcher. Even a couple times a week would have worked.

 

Of course it was also completely idiotic for Paulino to get that suspension. The data and avenues for players to NOT fall into this scenario are unlimited. There is no excuse.