August 9, 201214 yr They've also signed JJ, Buehrle, Nolasco, and Bell to long-term deals in the recent past. I think that's just an ideological thing of the past, not unlike their whole "build around the '03 team's defense and pitching". They've done what their resources and belief in value have led them to do, despite the ideology they convey to fans. Well, 2 of those 4 moves have already been proven to be poor decisions. The remaining two are to be determined. From what has been said over the last couple of weeks, the Marlins appear to be focusing on a more cost-effective free agent strategy. They appear to have learned a lesson from simply throwing huge sums of cash at the top free agents. Based upon what they have already done with the Turner and Eovaldi acquisitions, it seems to be that they might be following the strategy of "grow the pitching, buy the bats." That's a strategy I personally endorse because it's usually difficult to sign free agent pitching at a safe price. They don't necessarily have to extend him this off season either. They can reassess a couple months into next season based on how he's performing and potentially move him at the deadline if they're out of contention. And I'm still fine with them asking for the whole house for Johnson from teams in the offseason like they probably did last deadline. I suspect they're really going to have to feel like they're getting a massive haul from somebody to move him. His value will probably be at it's highest if they trade him in the offseason. If they wait to trade him a year from now, they'll only get the return of a 2-month rental. Personally, I think they asked way too much for him during the deadline, considering he's probably not an ace anymore. His decline in velocity is definitely a concern but he's still flashed brilliance at times with high K bursts. His line probably looks quite a bit better to if you factor out those early starts where he was getting unlucky with bloop hits and guys hitting him for an unsustainable BABIP. Not being a medical expert with access to Johnson, it's hard to say whether or not he's an injury risk going forward simply because of his past. Look at Anibal. I still think a lot will depend on these next 7-8 starts. The drop in his velocity is a pretty big deal. He averaged 91.59 on the fastball today, but used to sit in the 94 or sometimes even 95 range. His fastball has lost much of the bite it used to have as indicated by more balls in play, more line drives, and less swinging strikes. This season he's been saved because his breaking pitches have picked up most of the slack. I'm not so sure that can be sustained over the long term, however. And as I've said in the past, I don't entirely buy the "he's just unlucky" argument on account of his LD% being so high earlier in the season. I also generally think that people misuse BABIP by automatically thinking that any deviation from average should mostly be attributed to luck rather than more controllable factors (such as skill). As far as injury risk, you cannot assume that Johnson won't face any health related setbacks just because Anibal Sanchez has been healthy lately. There just isn't any logical justification for that, because they're two different pitchers. However, I don't believer that Anibal ever suffered a substantive decline in velocity since his injury, whereas Johnson has.
August 9, 201214 yr Buck wasn't just unlucky. He was unlucky, and not that good to start with. So bad luck makes him offensively useless instead of merely a liability.
August 11, 201214 yr all we can honestly hope for is that the FO actually reinvests a good portion of the money saved by shipping Hanley off into the team this offseason...if they go status quo with the hopes of Lomo and others all having bounceback years then we're sunk and dead in the water...i really don't see Bourn getting 16-20 mil a season...i just dont
August 13, 201214 yr They've also signed JJ, Buehrle, Nolasco, and Bell to long-term deals in the recent past. I think that's just an ideological thing of the past, not unlike their whole "build around the '03 team's defense and pitching". They've done what their resources and belief in value have led them to do, despite the ideology they convey to fans. Well, 2 of those 4 moves have already been proven to be poor decisions. The remaining two are to be determined. From what has been said over the last couple of weeks, the Marlins appear to be focusing on a more cost-effective free agent strategy. They appear to have learned a lesson from simply throwing huge sums of cash at the top free agents. Based upon what they have already done with the Turner and Eovaldi acquisitions, it seems to be that they might be following the strategy of "grow the pitching, buy the bats." That's a strategy I personally endorse because it's usually difficult to sign free agent pitching at a safe price. They don't necessarily have to extend him this off season either. They can reassess a couple months into next season based on how he's performing and potentially move him at the deadline if they're out of contention. And I'm still fine with them asking for the whole house for Johnson from teams in the offseason like they probably did last deadline. I suspect they're really going to have to feel like they're getting a massive haul from somebody to move him. His value will probably be at it's highest if they trade him in the offseason. If they wait to trade him a year from now, they'll only get the return of a 2-month rental. Personally, I think they asked way too much for him during the deadline, considering he's probably not an ace anymore. His decline in velocity is definitely a concern but he's still flashed brilliance at times with high K bursts. His line probably looks quite a bit better to if you factor out those early starts where he was getting unlucky with bloop hits and guys hitting him for an unsustainable BABIP. Not being a medical expert with access to Johnson, it's hard to say whether or not he's an injury risk going forward simply because of his past. Look at Anibal. I still think a lot will depend on these next 7-8 starts. The drop in his velocity is a pretty big deal. He averaged 91.59 on the fastball today, but used to sit in the 94 or sometimes even 95 range. His fastball has lost much of the bite it used to have as indicated by more balls in play, more line drives, and less swinging strikes. This season he's been saved because his breaking pitches have picked up most of the slack. I'm not so sure that can be sustained over the long term, however. And as I've said in the past, I don't entirely buy the "he's just unlucky" argument on account of his LD% being so high earlier in the season. I also generally think that people misuse BABIP by automatically thinking that any deviation from average should mostly be attributed to luck rather than more controllable factors (such as skill). As far as injury risk, you cannot assume that Johnson won't face any health related setbacks just because Anibal Sanchez has been healthy lately. There just isn't any logical justification for that, because they're two different pitchers. However, I don't believer that Anibal ever suffered a substantive decline in velocity since his injury, whereas Johnson has. Regardless of the outcome of those signings, the conception that the Marlins are hesitant to sign pitchers to long-term deals has not been true in the recent past. I hope they have learned their lesson as far as giving out contracts to aging relievers, and I certainly agree that going through free agency for starting pitching with any frequency is not sustainable for a mid-market team. I'm also not sure why you think Johnson's breaking stuff might not be sustainable beyond this season. Improvement of that nature is not based on luck. It's quite likely he's been forced to develop and refine his breaking stuff more to compensate for the drop in velocity. Not unlike a blind man's improvement in hearing. I wasn't incorrectly using BABIP in reference to his first few starts. He was in fact getting unlucky not simply because he was being hit for a higher BABIP. He allowed an unusual amount of bloopers and certainly wasn't the same type of pitcher, in terms of contact induced, coming back from injury compared to July/August. And obviously, I wasn't implying that there was any connection between Anibal's heath and JJ's health. The point was, not being a medical expert with access to Johnson (and even then), you cannot simply state he is an injury risk simply because of his past. That always annoys me in sports. The reason I referenced Anibal was because for all the speculation and doubt about his shoulder when he was coming back, he's on track to complete his third 190+ inning season in a row. Fans don't know these things. I think it's impossible to say that Johnson's value is at it's highest right now, judging only by his first season back from injury. Trading him would also open up another hole in the rotation, which is already counting on Turner/Eovaldi/Hand/LeBlanc panning out immediately and filling two slots. It would effectively force us to retain Nolasco (which we might have to do anyway), rather than risk heading into 2013 with so many uncertain slots in the rotation. It is really unlikely that some team is going to give up a solid near-MLB ready pitching prospect for him that can come close to matching his production.
August 13, 201214 yr Regardless of the outcome of those signings, the conception that the Marlins are hesitant to sign pitchers to long-term deals has not been true in the recent past. I hope they have learned their lesson as far as giving out contracts to aging relievers, and I certainly agree that going through free agency for starting pitching with any frequency is not sustainable for a mid-market team. The point is that they seem to be rethinking that strategy by targeting young, cheap starting pitching. One could also argue that this hesitation never really changed that much, since the Marlins appeared to have very little intent (and they actually worded it this way) to offer Anibal Sanchez a contract extension this past offseason--as many here were hoping they would do. One has to consider that it has to do with the injury risk, because they've essentially been burned by Johnson once because of shoulder problems when he missed nearly all of 2011. One could argue that they've always been cautious, but 2012 has been more of an eye opener for them. I'm also not sure why you think Johnson's breaking stuff might not be sustainable beyond this season. Improvement of that nature is not based on luck. It's quite likely he's been forced to develop and refine his breaking stuff more to compensate for the drop in velocity. Not unlike a blind man's improvement in hearing. I'm not sure how you can rationalize this when there really isn't any major change in the movement of the breaking pitches. From the pitch F/X standpoint, he doesn't appear to have "refined" anything. One could argue that the sampling size is still a bit small and the hitters should be given more time to adjust. Even with his "success" with the breaking pitches he still isn't the pitcher he was in 2009-2010. I wasn't incorrectly using BABIP in reference to his first few starts. He was in fact getting unlucky not simply because he was being hit for a higher BABIP. He allowed an unusual amount of bloopers and certainly wasn't the same type of pitcher, in terms of contact induced, coming back from injury compared to July/August. If bloop hits were responsible for the high BABIP, you'll have to prove that. And I remind you that his LD% was sky high during that period. And obviously, I wasn't implying that there was any connection between Anibal's heath and JJ's health. The point was, not being a medical expert with access to Johnson (and even then), you cannot simply state he is an injury risk simply because of his past. That always annoys me in sports. The reason I referenced Anibal was because for all the speculation and doubt about his shoulder when he was coming back, he's on track to complete his third 190+ inning season in a row. Fans don't know these things. I think it's impossible to say that Johnson's value is at it's highest right now, judging only by his first season back from injury. Trading him would also open up another hole in the rotation, which is already counting on Turner/Eovaldi/Hand/LeBlanc panning out immediately and filling two slots. It would effectively force us to retain Nolasco (which we might have to do anyway), rather than risk heading into 2013 with so many uncertain slots in the rotation. It is really unlikely that some team is going to give up a solid near-MLB ready pitching prospect for him that can come close to matching his production. But teams rely on past injury history too. Even a recent physical cannot accurately predict how a pitcher's arm will hold up during the next several years. Susceptibility to injury counts for a lot, especially for pitchers. I wouldn't be surprised if Anibal's past injury problems were the main reason why the Marlins were not interested in signing him last offseason to an extension. As for value--I don't think it's likely that his velocity comes back to the 94-95 range, so I doubt he'll be an ace again. If you trade him now (the offseason) you can probably get a couple of players (pitchers/position players) that can start plugging holes in 2014 or even 2013. Personally, I think the Marlins should be playing more for 2014 when they get rid of some of the bad contracts (Buck, Nolasco, etc.). Trading Johnson doesn't open up holes; it fills them.
August 14, 201214 yr The man has a sub 4 era and took a no decision or a loss on 6-7 quality starts, I would have to look it up to be certain. Let's not pretend he has somehow gone into the shitter.
August 14, 201214 yr The man has a sub 4 era and took a no decision or a loss on 6-7 quality starts, I would have to look it up to be certain. Let's not pretend he has somehow gone into the shitter. Who's doing that?
August 14, 201214 yr The man has a sub 4 era and took a no decision or a loss on 6-7 quality starts, I would have to look it up to be certain. Let's not pretend he has somehow gone into the shitter. Who's doing that? Believe he's talking about JJ no? Who's had a 1.75 era over his last 4 starts btw.
August 14, 201214 yr The man has a sub 4 era and took a no decision or a loss on 6-7 quality starts, I would have to look it up to be certain. Let's not pretend he has somehow gone into the shitter. He has a 105 ERA+. That's just not ace-like, regardless of how you framed it above.
August 14, 201214 yr -I would trade Hand, Ozuna, Conley, Coghlan, and 1-2 power arms from Caminero/Ramos/Urena/etc to Minnesota for Span and Perkins -Sign a # 3 SP in free agency / or Javy Vazquez if he wants back in -Veteran LF to platoon Ruggiano -Veteran 3B starter -Veteran backup 2B/3B -Depending on how Brantly does rest of season, maybe get a backup catcher -Move Nolasco to pen -Move Eovaldi to pen -Sign Stanton for 7 years $ 80 million, or something close -Sign Bonifacio for 3 years $12-14 million and buyout 1 FA year -Gamble on a 3 year deal with Morrison (which would realistically only cost 3/$6) and hope you beat his first two years or arbitration if he blossoms what we think -Pick up Spans 3rd year option, and extend him two more years reasonably C Buck 1B Morrison 2B Bonifacio SS Reyes 3B Veteran FA starter LF Ruggiano/Veteran LF platoon CFSpan RF Stanton B - Dobbs, Veteran LF platoon, Veteran backup 2b/3b, Brantly/Veteran catcher, Solano/other 25th man infield type SP Johnson Buerhle Veteran # 3 Turner LeBlanc RP Bell Nolasco Cishek Perkins Eovaldi Webb Dunn If major SP injury, stretch back out Nolasco Then draft top non-outfield (pref. 2B/3B if one is appropriate value wise) bat first pick in draft, other three 1/2 rounders all arms to replace what was traded for Span/Perkins
August 14, 201214 yr The man has a sub 4 era and took a no decision or a loss on 6-7 quality starts, I would have to look it up to be certain. Let's not pretend he has somehow gone into the shitter. Who's doing that? Believe he's talking about JJ no? Who's had a 1.75 era over his last 4 starts btw. No. I was asking who here was pretending that Johnson has gone into the shitter, because that sounds like a straw man.
August 14, 201214 yr I'd much rather have Span than Bourjos (as some were suggesting). No brainer. Much more proven. Obviously would "cost" more in terms of player acquisition and payroll, but it ends CF discussion for years. Bourjos is more questions. I also like Span more than Bourn/BJ/Melky over next 4-5 years based on all their ages and skillsets. Especially with the massively larger CF.
August 14, 201214 yr Next year if im the marlins i do the following. Trade for Ryan Doumit. I know the Twins just extended him but give them a pitching prospect or 2 and try and make a deal with a rebuilding team. He is a quality catcher who also plays the outfield. Move Eovaldi to the bullpen. Trade Nolasco to anyone willing to take his whole contract. Just get him off the team. Sign Angel Pagan to a 1-2 year deal. Sign Youkilis to a 1 year deal. Promote Turner, Brantly, Try and sign Greinke long term using the saved money, and also sign kyle loshe to a 2 year deal if possible. Possibly trade JJ if the right deal is there. C- Brantly, Doumit, buck also if we want to play doumit in OF too or just eat his money 1b- Lomo 2b- Bonerface SS- Reyes 3b- Youkilis LF- Ruggiano CF- Pagan RF- Stanton P- Greinke P-Buehrle P-Lohse P-Turner P- Lots of options (Team probably wants eovaldi starting) What is the realistic possibility given the money we saved with the hanley trade as well as trading JJ in this scenario. that is a good team that seemingly fits together on paper. I love this lineup- Boni- Pagan Reyes Stanton Youkilis Lomo Ruggiano Brantly/ Doumit
August 14, 201214 yr No. I was asking who here was pretending that Johnson has gone into the shitter, because that sounds like a straw man. It is definitely Hyperbole, but as struggling years go, this is nothing.
August 16, 201214 yr sooooooo,,,anyone still want Melky? talk about someone shooting themselves in the foot for their one shot at a big payout
August 16, 201214 yr Never wanted Melky. Get pagan for cheaper and similar production. always have liked him. A 2 year 10-12 million would be a solid deal for him.
August 17, 201214 yr Never wanted Melky. Get pagan for cheaper and similar production. always have liked him. A 2 year 10-12 million would be a solid deal for him. If we're going to be handing out 6M a year to .700-.750 OPS OFs, at least we'll have a ton of players wanting to join Miami. I really don't understand why you'd want him. He's completely unnecessary. We have Ruggiano and Stanton and several other choices like Kearns, Peterson, Hernandez, Yelich coming up. Just saying, if you're goign to spend money, make it on a player that's a clear improvement.
August 17, 201214 yr Never wanted Melky. Get pagan for cheaper and similar production. always have liked him. A 2 year 10-12 million would be a solid deal for him. If we're going to be handing out 6M a year to .700-.750 OPS OFs, at least we'll have a ton of players wanting to join Miami. I really don't understand why you'd want him. He's completely unnecessary. We have Ruggiano and Stanton and several other choices like Kearns, Peterson, Hernandez, Yelich coming up. Just saying, if you're goign to spend money, make it on a player that's a clear improvement. We have 2 outfielders who can play everyday next year only. Ruggiano and Stanton. 1 if you think Ruggiano will never produce like he did this year again, even if he is a quality major leaguer. A guy like pagan who can play all outfield spots, steal 30 bases, hit .275 and still has pop and puts pressure on the defense, switch hitter, is a career .300 hitter with RISP. HE is a solid major leaguer who can hold a spot in the lineup till Yelich is ready at the earliest at the end of next year. He is a quality outfielder who would be worth 5 million for what he produces, plus we have only 2 outfielders for next year and no one who can play centerfield. He can hit many places in the lineup too. he would be great at either 1,2,5,6, or 7 and would give us nice depth in the lineup. Plus, his game would be a great fit for our stadium. Plus he is definitely a clear improvement over Hernandez, Kearns, Petersen, and possibly ruggiano. What outfielder, aside from Hamilton and bourn would you rather have than him this offseason?
August 20, 201214 yr i don't know how many of you caught this but Melky apparently also decided to create a fake website that pushed some fake product that he could then blame on his positive results. lol..i will give him props on creativity for that one......but DO NOT WANT
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