Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

The ownership will make alot of money before the season even starts in revenue sharing, what does it matter to them, finanacially, if nobody goes? Attendance isn't a priority to them, it's not personal, the goal in buisness is to be lean, keep costs down, and make a profit.

The ownership will make alot of money before the season even starts in revenue sharing, what does it matter to them, finanacially, if nobody goes? Attendance isn't a priority to them, it's not personal, the goal in buisness is to be lean, keep costs down, and make a profit.

Properly speaking the goal is only to make a profit. Being lean and cutting costs are merely some of the ways of doing that. Other, very different ways include producing a quality product and/or selling in volume. And in this case, as you rightfully point out, yet another way is to simply pocket the revenue sharing and produce a shell of a product. My personal opinion is that Loria thinks they can produce a shell of a product that is just good enough to be seen as successful and get people to the ballpark without having to make any big investments, leaving lots of shared revenue for profit-taking.

The ownership will make alot of money before the season even starts in revenue sharing, what does it matter to them, finanacially, if nobody goes? Attendance isn't a priority to them, it's not personal, the goal in buisness is to be lean, keep costs down, and make a profit.

Properly speaking the goal is only to make a profit. Being lean and cutting costs are merely some of the ways of doing that. Other, very different ways include producing a quality product and/or selling in volume. And in this case, as you rightfully point out, yet another way is to simply pocket the revenue sharing and produce a shell of a product. My personal opinion is that Loria thinks they can produce a shell of a product that is just good enough to be seen as successful and get people to the ballpark without having to make any big investments, leaving lots of shared revenue for profit-taking.

He proved last year he was willing to make a big investment. It didn't work out so why throw more money at bad contracts. I strongly believe he will spend more money again when it makes sense to. Doubtful we ever see a splurge like last year again but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

The ownership will make alot of money before the season even starts in revenue sharing, what does it matter to them, finanacially, if nobody goes? Attendance isn't a priority to them, it's not personal, the goal in buisness is to be lean, keep costs down, and make a profit.

Properly speaking the goal is only to make a profit. Being lean and cutting costs are merely some of the ways of doing that. Other, very different ways include producing a quality product and/or selling in volume. And in this case, as you rightfully point out, yet another way is to simply pocket the revenue sharing and produce a shell of a product. My personal opinion is that Loria thinks they can produce a shell of a product that is just good enough to be seen as successful and get people to the ballpark without having to make any big investments, leaving lots of shared revenue for profit-taking.

He proved last year he was willing to make a big investment. It didn't work out so why throw more money at bad contracts. I strongly believe he will spend more money again when it makes sense to. Doubtful we ever see a splurge like last year again but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

I don't disagree, which makes my point. There are different ways to make a profit, and last year was one of them. But when it started to fail he bailed out wholesale and went back to his comfort zone, with minimal investments, hoping to catch lightening in a bottle without jeopardizing profits. I hope you are right, that he won't just stay there but only time will tell that. The FO hasn't exactly been reassuring on that point.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL

 

Good chance it is or close to it anyway.

 

Day 2 will of course have a big drop though.

The ownership will make alot of money before the season even starts in revenue sharing, what does it matter to them, finanacially, if nobody goes? Attendance isn't a priority to them

More ill-informed Loria-bashing? What a shock. That could never happen here.

 

For anyone who would sooner lynch Loria than look at him, here are some facts:

 

'09 actual expenses were 123 mill, of which 43 mill was MLB player payroll. That means that general overhead was about 80 mill. Inflate by 2% per year for 4 years. That results in about 87 mill of general overhead for '13.

 

Cot's says we owe 8.5 mill in '13 to TOR (more than the 4 mill generally reported) for that trade, plus 4 mill in '13 to dump Bell and 2.5 mill in '13 to dump Ozzie. That's 15 mill before you pay any current player a dime. We owe 31 mill to the 6 guys signed to more-than-minimum contracts. Assume 19 others at .5 each if we sign no one else for more than the minimum.

 

That's 46 mill in MLB payroll -- so you need 133 mill in '13 just to break even.

 

The average ticket price in '09 was 19.06 and attendance was 1.46 mill. Net gate revenue was 21.5 mill, so we netted 77% of the gross gate.

 

The average ticket price in '12 was 29.62 and attendance was 2.22 mill. That's 65.7 mill gross. 77% of that implies that net gate revenue for '12 was almost 51 mill.

 

51 mill in net gate was a VERY important part of their '12 revenue stream, which was probably in the neighborhood of 170 million ('09 was 135 mill, plus 30 mill increased net gate, plus a little inflation.)

 

Their problem in '12 was that payroll was 102 mill plus about 85 mill in general overhead, which means they lost about 17 mill last year. They even lost money on parking (they had to pay for all of those empty spots at 10.04 a pop,) probably offset by gains in concession income.

 

Let's say they project an average (dynamic) '13 ticket price of 27 with attendance at 1.8 million. 77% of that is 37 mill. Oops, 14 mill of revenue disappeared That would imply a loss of more than 31 mill in '13 under the pre-trade status quo. With the extra 5 mill due Buehrle, that would be a 36 mill loss in'13.

 

But, it's much, much worse than that. A relatively risky asset (from the standpoint of guaranteed returns) worth 450 mill should generate an average profit of at least 40 mill a year. Any loss, unless strictly transitory, is a very bad thing. The prospect of a multi-year string of losses is a total disaster. You can buy AAA blue-chip utility stocks with 450 mill and earn 20 mill/yr without ever thinking about anything or losing any sleep whatsoever.

 

Loria wants to win and no doubt enjoys being an MLB owner able to call the shots and it has to be a great ego trip, but there's a financial limit on all of that. In this case it was the difference between a prospective loss of 36 million versus what should be a profit of 40 million. That's serious money.

 

That the bad contracts were dumped is no surprise, Reyes and Buehrle were due 41 mill in '15 between them, by which time the losses could be much worse. Only an idiot continues down the same road when it has already proven to be a loser.

 

Just as Loria spent big in '05 (60 mill payroll with a small gate) and in '12 to try to win, it'll also be no surprise when he does it again when revenue has some hope of justifying it. As they repeatedly have said, payroll will be a function of revenue.

 

All we can say at this point is that the '13 payroll is a direct result of deficient '12 revenue and failure on the field and expected lower '13 net gate revenue.

 

I expect A LOT of cut-rate price ticket promotions next year, because they most certainly do care A LOT about attendance -- net gate revenue is VERY important to their finances and ability to hire ballplayers.

 

Never mind what the usual assortment of Loria-hating ignoramuses regularly burp up as they flog their astonishing lack of any perception or understanding of what is involved with running an MLB team, ad infinitum.

I doubt the overhead is the same, unless the money put down on the new park was calculated in a way to keep the lease payments from JRS and loan payments similar or the same. Something we don't know.

The overhead is largely the same, nothing much changes from year to year, other than the 25-man roster cost.

 

The rent payment at JR was 2 mill. The rent to M-D County is 2.3 mill/yr. So we do know.

 

Yes, I did mention concessions, it's an offset to the parking losses. They assumed those garages would be full and they weren't, thousands of empty spaces over the course of the season cost them millions of dollars. Tons of game-view shots have shown the four garages' top floors to be empty. The empty top (visible) floor is just 25%, we don't know how empty the lower floors were.

 

That the stadium naming rights never got sold is a massive fail.

 

Non-MLB events were few and far between, but yes, they get 100% of the gate on the 1st 10 events/year, 50/50 after that. But, that WAS negligible. Another fail.

 

All of that doesn't change the fact that Loria was compelled to avoid further losses. When you are underperforming by 40 or 60 or 80 mill/yr on your 450 mill asset, you have to change course.

We suck

Nobody cares

 

 

Can't wait for opening day.

Who's gonna throw out the first pitch? Hopefully something better.

Some questions and some things I think you got wrong. I'm on my phone so have patience.

 

.... I know the marlins lost money in 12, but I don't think they went about correcting it the best way. They ignored...actually they s*** on their customer base. Payroll needed to be trimmed, but they didn't trim payroll. They lit it on fire, and pissed on the ashes. I wonder what calculations they put together to justify another PR nightmare.

This. I used to think that Loria and company had enough baseball business sense to pull this off, but when they completely disregarded the impact the fire sale would have on fan support, I gave up. They gave themselves a big hill to climb. They should know from past experience after a team dismantling that Marlins fans don't rush back to the ballpark just as soon as the team starts winning.

 

The other part of this that ticks me off is all the promises made by the FO about how the whole business model would change because of the ballpark. A more steady revenue base would mean the days of famine would no longer be necessary, and that they would have enough revenue to adjust to disappoinments. That plan (and that kind of talk) went out the window after just half a season, even while they were still enjoying all the season ticket revenue from opening season in the new park.

Someone who knows someone in ticket sales told me he hasn't been able to sell a single ticket package this offseason and a good number of people aren't renewing. People are avoiding the Marlins like the plague. Way to go, Loria.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL

There were a few us us that did. Willing to bet we are all going by our history as a reference. And like we also said, it's Day 2 and beyond where the difference will be.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

What do you mean by overpay? I would imagine they charge a little more, like they would a "prime game," or whatever the term is they use for the Saturday games. Do they usually charge even more than that?

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL

There were a few us us that did. Willing to bet we are all going by our history as a reference. And like we also said, it's Day 2 and beyond where the difference will be.

 

The last time the Marlins had a fire sale (or "market correction") after 2005 they didn't sell out Opening Day the following season. Opening day '13 will be the Marlins biggest draw, and yes there will be a huge drop off, but I highly doubt opening day will be sold out considering the amount of dissent among the fan base after this most recent fire sale.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

 

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL

There were a few us us that did. Willing to bet we are all going by our history as a reference. And like we also said, it's Day 2 and beyond where the difference will be.

 

The last time the Marlins had a fire sale (or "market correction") after 2005 they didn't sell out Opening Day the following season. Opening day '13 will be the Marlins biggest draw, and yes there will be a huge drop off, but I highly doubt opening day will be sold out considering the amount of dissent among the fan base after this most recent fire sale.

 

There were 31,308 there which was a near sellout (remember not every seat at Sun Life was for baseball). Factor in the AC and the newer ballpark, it should sell out.

Season ticket sales will drop by at least 50% or more.

 

They were going to take a major drop even without the payroll reduction. A lot of people bought partial plans last year in order to secure Opening Night tickets.

 

Although that's true, it's just part of the reason, Admin. Alot of folks doubled up on their packages hoping to in the very least break even on the total, and are now at least dropping the double up portion. Alot are also dropping everything.Also, nbace has a point. StubHub prices were so low last year because of the over supply of paid tickets available. Heck, I had a hard time giving tickets away. I don't think it would be wise of anyone thinking they will get some $2 tickets for Opening Day. Our history shows Opening Day is a hot sell. Day 2 and beyond is another story.

 

Yea, Opening Day is never cheap and even the worst of Marlins seasons (coming in 2013) will STILL be sold out. As much as our fans suck, there are still a LOT of baseball fans in SoFla that want a taste of opening day baseball. You may overpay for Opening Day as always but like you said, after that should be great...

Did you just say...opening day will be sold out in 2013? LOL There were a few us us that did. Willing to bet we are all going by our history as a reference. And like we also said, it's Day 2 and beyond where the difference will be.The last time the Marlins had a fire sale (or "market correction") after 2005 they didn't sell out Opening Day the following season. Opening day '13 will be the Marlins biggest draw, and yes there will be a huge drop off, but I highly doubt opening day will be sold out considering the amount of dissent among the fan base after this most recent fire sale.

There were 31,308 there which was a near sellout (remember not every seat at Sun Life was for baseball). Factor in the AC and the newer ballpark, it should sell out.

Capacity for baseball in 06 was 36k+. So about 5000 unsold tickets.

 

The newness of the park has already rubbed off for many people and the fan base is in shambles right now. I just don't see a sellout happening. We'll see.

The Marlins will still get semi-decent attendance this year due to the new stadium, which is pretty awesome. But, I had season tickets in 2003 and nobody showed up until September. The fans tend to be fair weather fans for the most part in Miami (with the exception of the people that post on this site), and they won't come until September (if the Marlins are in contention) when they put their Mets' jerseys back into the closet and pull on the Marlins' jersey.

Someone who knows someone in ticket sales told me he hasn't been able to sell a single ticket package this offseason and a good number of people aren't renewing. People are avoiding the Marlins like the plague. Way to go, Loria.

Is this "someone" related to squall's sources?

The Marlins will still get semi-decent attendance this year due to the new stadium, which is pretty awesome. But, I had season tickets in 2003 and nobody showed up until September. The fans tend to be fair weather fans for the most part in Miami (with the exception of the people that post on this site), and they won't come until September (if the Marlins are in contention) when they put their Mets' jerseys back into the closet and pull on the Marlins' jersey.

The drop will be huge maybe to the 20k range... or even lower.

 

It'll be one of the worst attendance drops by a team in MLB history.

It is going to be bad. I believe historically bad.

 

First, some pct of casual Marlins fans gave Loria a pass iin earlier years because: 1) he had recently brought them a championship and 2) they believed the whole "we cant generate any revenue at Pro Player" canard.

 

Neither of those excuses applies any more.

 

Even hard-core fans have sworn off this franchise until and unless Loria sells the team. I am one of these fans. I carried the water for this franchise for many, many years and this last salary dump was the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

Loria wants to make money, winning is secondary.

 

If he wanted to win, he would've eaten more contract and forced the Jays to trade D'Arnaud.

What I'm waiting to see is how little I can pay for good tickets on a Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday series on the road in Kansas City in August. I get the feeling if I'm living in Kansas City by then, the gas will be more expensive than the tickets.

well they must've known once they made the Toronto trade that attendance was going to take a significant hit, but that in their eyes it was better in the short-term than spending it on players and crossing their fingers that they'd win a little more and the fans would show up.

 

I still maintain that they can save some face in this. Lock up Stanton with a no-trade and go get a starting pitcher before the start of the season. I mean it's going to be bad but it doesn't have to be ghost-town bad.

If Stanton signed anything, he'd want a TC, not a NTC.