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I think we need a thread about Urena


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Is he really too bad to be in the rotation ?

Why this team continue to start him when other SPs available ?

Any stats prove he's qualified to be a SP in a contending team ?

I just think we need a thread to discuss Urena because he's the most controversial player in the rotation. 

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29 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Is he really too bad to be in the rotation ?

Why this team continue to start him when other SPs available ?

Any stats prove he's qualified to be a SP in a contending team ?

I just think we need a thread to discuss Urena because he's the most controversial player in the rotation. 

@taiwanmarlin, please do not discuss Ureña on this thread. This is a thread to debate whether or not we need an Ureña thread.

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4 minutes ago, SirFishFan said:

Marlins should let Ureña get some rest, until the Braves series..

How about the Yankees series?  That is if we clinched already.

Actually, if he pitched vs the Braves and hit Acuna again, maybe Acuna would get hurt (not career ending) and Urena would be suspended the rest of the year.  Problem solved. 

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Okay, y'all want the truth on why Ureña keeps getting starts? I gotta warn you, the answer ain't sexy.

He throws hard.

Why does that matter so much? Well, pitching is very complicated; it's very difficult to predict which pitchers will succeed and which will fail. But velocity is a Major Component in forecasting starting pitcher success. Consider the starters in the 2019 season:

QLhmTU5.png

That regression line there, a-coursing through the pitchers' highest (Pitch Info) pitch velocity and their xFIPs, has an R-squared of 0.13. That ain't the highest R-squared, but in a field that's really hard to predict anything, knowing the velocity alone can explain 13% of the variation in pitcher success is huge.

So a theoretical guy, we'll call him Ose Jureña, that throws 96 mph would correlate with a 3.70 xFIP. And sure, there's enough volatility there that he could be one of those guys throwing 96 and sporting a 4.50 xFIP. But I mean, look at some of those names up there in the "96 mph but bad performance" group -- Trevor Bauer, Sandy Alcantara, and, well, Jose Ureña's carbon copy, Reynaldo Lopez.

But it's hard to deny you want velo in the roation. Here's the qualified starters in 2019 that average 95 mph or harder:

Name	            IP     	ERA
Noah Syndergaard    197.2	4.28
Gerrit Cole         212.1	2.50
Jacob deGrom	    204.0	2.43
Zack Wheeler	    195.1	3.96
Reynaldo Lopez	    184.0	5.38
Walker Buehler	    182.1	3.26
Luis Castillo	    190.2	3.40
Lucas Giolito	    176.2	3.41
Sandy Alcantara	    197.1	3.88
German Marquez	    174.0	4.76
Max Scherzer	    172.1	2.92
Trevor Bauer	    213.0	4.48
Charlie Morton	    194.2	3.05

It's hard to get a qualified number of innings when you're getting shelled, so there's some survivor bias here. But in general, folks... That's the kind of group you would want to pluck from, not avoid.

Now all that said, hard throwers are good for the bullpen too. And for all his velocity, Ureña doesn't strike out folks. So that's not great. And frankly, I expect we'll see Neidert today if Ureña hits any rough waters. But this is why they keep giving him chances.

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Legitimately the only reason Urena keeps getting chances is because "fastball fast goes bzzzz".

Truth is, the dude can throw baseballs really fast.

Problem is, he throws those baseballs in straight lines.

Problem with that further, is he throws those baseballs in straight lines without really knowing where that line ends.

 

Urena does not have good control or good "stuff" in terms of movement. What he has is a fastball that goes fast. Some teams like seeing the radar gun light up and think that means the pitcher is "good" or maybe can develop into being good, but like...there's so much more to pitching than velocity, and velocity is the only plus trait Urena has.

Trying him out of the bullpen last year was a great idea, but that didn't work either. At this point, I don't know how many chances you can give a guy who is consistently the worst part of a team's starting rotation.

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13 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

Legitimately the only reason Urena keeps getting chances is because "fastball fast goes bzzzz".

Truth is, the dude can throw baseballs really fast.

Problem is, he throws those baseballs in straight lines.

Problem with that further, is he throws those baseballs in straight lines without really knowing where that line ends.

 

Urena does not have good control or good "stuff" in terms of movement. What he has is a fastball that goes fast. Some teams like seeing the radar gun light up and think that means the pitcher is "good" or maybe can develop into being good, but like...there's so much more to pitching than velocity, and velocity is the only plus trait Urena has.

Trying him out of the bullpen last year was a great idea, but that didn't work either. At this point, I don't know how many chances you can give a guy who is consistently the worst part of a team's starting rotation.

Good points. And while it has not been the case recently, it is worth noting that FanGraphs had his slider as a valuable pitch (routinely worth around 1.00 wSL/C) from 2015-2018. Maybe if he recaptures that slider control/break/whatever that made it successful, then he starts to look like a competent No. 5 starter again.

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34 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

There are pitchers worse than Jose Urena that have pitched in Major League Baseball, but I don't think there are any pitchers worse than him who have made a six-year career out of being consistently below average. 

And still gets a 3.75M contract.. 😂

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