42 minutes ago, Michael said:

If we're going to take on money, why overpay still with prospects? I know it's not Dodgers taking on David Price level money, but still. Especially if the plan is to just DFA Piscotty anyways? And yes I know Laureano is good, but again, if we're taking all the money, we shouldn't have to pay that much on prospects.

I'm not sure how that is an overpay in prospects (an injured arm or non-top prospect in Fulton years away; a FV45 at best corner OF, maybe a 40+; a FV45 at best middle infielder, likely also 40+ 3+ years away; and a 5th OF). They would/should want more. Piscotty buys you *maybe* holding onto Eury/Meyer/Cabrera (which I think we all agree is what is important here), and combined with the suspension uncertainty, maybe you can sneak out of it without getting killed.

Laureano is a 4.7 WAR/600 PA guy for his career. He paced at 3.2 WAR both 2020/2021. CF depth in MLB is awful across the board. If he's just a 3+ WAR guy, his surplus value (with Piscotty knocking dollars off) is likely $55m+ bucks. If we're using a prospect valuation scale (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/), a FV50 arm with Sixto/Eder, two FV45 bats (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/), and a DLC throw in.... is maybe $40m.

So actually this doesn't work. I'm underselling him and being a homer. They need to do something like a 6-2 and it's something like Laureano/Piscotty for (1) Sixto/Eder, (2) Bleday/Burdick, (3) Salas/Lewis, (4) Fulton/Mack/Cappe/McCambley, (5) DLC, and (6) top 20-30 level throw in, maybe Jerar/Osiris/Soriano sort of thing. It's the cost of keeping Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera.... I suppose an alternative is doing (1) Sixto, (2) Eder, (3) Bleday/Burdick, and (4) DLC, and keeping the other guys. That math adds up, but I have a hard time thinking Oakland takes two injured arms.

And that's valuing Laureano at 20/21/suspension levels, not his career where it becomes much more costly and Eury/Meyer/Cabrera immediately have to get on the table. Oakland is definitely gunning for that.

He's good. They need to shed some guys we like to get players we like.

 

Edit - to add, Laureano is basically Pablo Lopez. What guys in the Marlins system would we trade for Pablo Lopez? That's the valuation. 

Edited April 22, 20224 yr by MarlinsLou

11 hours ago, UnitFox said:

Is Garcia/soler our new Chen? 

I don’t think so. Both Garcia and Soler are extremely streaky hitters.
 

If anything, Soler (and Avi to a lesser extent) is our new Duvall. Invisible for 3.5 weeks out of the month, but there’s a 5-6 day stretch where no one in baseball can get him out. One of those guys who for 90% of the year you’re pissed off at, and you look up at the end of the year and he somehow ends up hitting 30+ HRs with a .790ish ops. 

Chen just sucked 

11 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'm not sure how that is an overpay in prospects (an injured arm or non-top prospect in Fulton years away; a FV45 at best corner OF, maybe a 40+; a FV45 at best middle infielder, likely also 40+ 3+ years away; and a 5th OF). They would/should want more. Piscotty buys you *maybe* holding onto Eury/Meyer/Cabrera (which I think we all agree is what is important here), and combined with the suspension uncertainty, maybe you can sneak out of it without getting killed.

Laureano is a 4.7 WAR/600 PA guy for his career. He paced at 3.2 WAR both 2020/2021. CF depth in MLB is awful across the board. If he's just a 3+ WAR guy, his surplus value (with Piscotty knocking dollars off) is likely $55m+ bucks. If we're using a prospect valuation scale (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/), a FV50 arm with Sixto/Eder, two FV45 bats (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/), and a DLC throw in.... is maybe $40m.

So actually this doesn't work. I'm underselling him and being a homer. They need to do something like a 6-2 and it's something like Laureano/Piscotty for (1) Sixto/Eder, (2) Bleday/Burdick, (3) Salas/Lewis, (4) Fulton/Mack/Cappe/McCambley, (5) DLC, and (6) top 20-30 level throw in, maybe Jerar/Osiris/Soriano sort of thing. It's the cost of keeping Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera.... I suppose an alternative is doing (1) Sixto, (2) Eder, (3) Bleday/Burdick, and (4) DLC, and keeping the other guys. That math adds up, but I have a hard time thinking Oakland takes two injured arms.

And that's valuing Laureano at 20/21/suspension levels, not his career where it becomes much more costly and Eury/Meyer/Cabrera immediately have to get on the table. Oakland is definitely gunning for that.

He's good. They need to shed some guys we like to get players we like.

 

Edit - to add, Laureano is basically Pablo Lopez. What guys in the Marlins system would we trade for Pablo Lopez? That's the valuation. 

There is absolutely no way in hell I’m trading a Sixto/Eder AND Burdick AND a Salas type for Stephen freaking Piscotty lol. 

Edited April 22, 20224 yr by marlins_09

9 minutes ago, marlins_09 said:

There is absolutely no way in hell I’m trading a Sixto/Eder AND Burdick AND a Salas type for Stephen freaking Piscotty lol. 

Maybe re-read

38 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Maybe re-read

Nope. Burdick, Salas, and Eder for Piscotty. That's totally what you said. Yep.

 

(Still think it'd be overpaying given the money being taken on but eh)

you all out here trying to trade a bird's dick??

did someone say we were getting biscotti?   

14 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

you all out here trying to trade a bird's dick??

 

8 minutes ago, hovertical said:

did someone say we were getting biscotti?   

marlinsbaseball.com in a nutshell right here.

14 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

 

marlinsbaseball.com in a nutshell right here.

the biological term for "nutshell" is "scrotum" 

1 hour ago, Michael said:

Nope. Burdick, Salas, and Eder for Piscotty. That's totally what you said. Yep.

 

(Still think it'd be overpaying given the money being taken on but eh)

If all three of those guys are FV50 prospects (FG thinks no to all, but they may all be 45+ so it is arguably close), I think they could maybe convince them 4-2 and throwing in a throwin/DLC.

If this were Pablo - that feels light though right? That's my point. I think don't think we'd trade Pablo for Eder, Burdick, Salas, and a throw-in. Laureano is their Pablo.

12 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

If all three of those guys are FV50 prospects (FG thinks no to all, but they may all be 45+ so it is arguably close), I think they could maybe convince them 4-2 and throwing in a throwin/DLC.

If this were Pablo - that feels light though right? That's my point. I think don't think we'd trade Pablo for Eder, Burdick, Salas, and a throw-in. Laureano is their Pablo.

But what if Sanchez continues to play well?  Why are we trying to force a trade in CF when at the very least, Sanchez can buy us some time to find a long term solution without giving up the farm?

Edited April 22, 20224 yr by Rydawg

5 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

But what if Sanchez continues to play well?  Why are we trying to force a trade in CF when at the very least, Sanchez can buy us some time to find a long term solution without giving up the farm?

Because they've had time to find one and have failed? You can't just keep saying "wait until 2-3 years from now when ________ is playing". Well, I mean you CAN say it just like the Marlins have been saying for MORE than 2-3 years now. It makes the team better by trading from that surplus. 

5 minutes ago, hovertical said:

Because they've had time to find one and have failed? You can't just keep saying "wait until 2-3 years from now when ________ is playing". Well, I mean you CAN say it just like the Marlins have been saying for MORE than 2-3 years now. It makes the team better by trading from that surplus. 

I get that, but we aren't running Brinson, Monte,  or any of those others scrubs out there now.  Sanchez is a legit solution in CF. At least that's how they feel and I'm starting to buy it.

Why are you so certain that Sanchez isn't the answer? He's very sound fundamentally out there.  He's not a burner but he has enough speed and he's just 24 years old. 

All I'm saying is that with Sanchez out there,  we don't have that pressing or urgent need like we thought we did in the off-season. That's  a good thing. Let's let it play out until the All star break and re-evaluate the situation then.

7 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I get that, but we aren't running Brinson, Monte,  or any of those others scrubs out there now.  Sanchez is a legit solution in CF. At least that's how they feel and I'm starting to buy it.

Why are you so certain that Sanchez isn't the answer? He's very sound fundamentally out there.  He's not a burner but he has enough speed and he's just 24 years old. 

All I'm saying is that with Sanchez out there,  we don't have that pressing or urgent need like we thought we did in the off-season. That's  a good thing. Let's let it play out until the All star break and re-evaluate the situation then.

I'm with this guy. We're complaining about not having a CF while, at the moment, there's a good CF out there so far. Are we so conditioned to complaining that we can't accept someone succeeding where we thought they would fail?

6 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I get that, but we aren't running Brinson, Monte,  or any of those others scrubs out there now.  Sanchez is a legit solution in CF. At least that's how they feel and I'm starting to buy it.

Why are you so certain that Sanchez isn't the answer? He's very sound fundamentally out there.  He's not a burner but he has enough speed and he's just 24 years old. 

All I'm saying is that with Sanchez out there,  we don't have that pressing or urgent need like we thought we did in the off-season. That's  a good thing. Let's let it play out until the All star break and re-evaluate the situation then.

So on other posts regarding Avisail and others that are struggling you said they need more time before saying they're a bust but Jesus is a "legit solution" in CF on the same small sample size? 

30 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

But what if Sanchez continues to play well?  Why are we trying to force a trade in CF when at the very least, Sanchez can buy us some time to find a long term solution without giving up the farm?

Because he is not an everyday CF longterm and he should be in LF. There is not forcing a trade - they need a positional upgrade first and foremost. CF is the most logical place as they "maybe" have a "below average defender" in Sanchez. 

 

9 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I get that, but we aren't running Brinson, Monte,  or any of those others scrubs out there now.  Sanchez is a legit solution in CF. At least that's how they feel and I'm starting to buy it.

Why are you so certain that Sanchez isn't the answer? He's very sound fundamentally out there.  He's not a burner but he has enough speed and he's just 24 years old. 

All I'm saying is that with Sanchez out there,  we don't have that pressing or urgent need like we thought we did in the off-season. That's  a good thing. Let's let it play out until the All star break and re-evaluate the situation then.

What happens when Sanchez gets hurt? There is nothing else in the entire organization.

You need two starting caliber CF as a contending team. Prior to the season I wasn't sure he was one, but maybe he is in fact the "second" one. That is GREAT if that is the case. That's where Sanchez buys them time - when they get a real CF, and that guy gets hurt, SANCHEZ is the failsafe option so production doesn't crater (as you can find corner players easier.... like Bleday and Burdick).

Also his defensive metrics are starting to lower and he's below average (SSS sure) and not neutral like the first week and a half. He's nothing like a guy like Laureano.

I disagree there is not a pressing need - this team BADLY needs an infusion of upgrades to turn from a likely .500ish team to a contender. Again, CF is the most logical place short and longterm.

3 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

I'm with this guy. We're complaining about not having a CF while, at the moment, there's a good CF out there so far. Are we so conditioned to complaining that we can't accept someone succeeding where we thought they would fail?

But he's not a good CF out there when you realize they are giving up A TON of defense in LF and CF playing the bats this way. This is costing them production.

Get Laureano in CF, your entire OF defense improves, and he's a better hitter than the PA he'd steal - DLC, Berti, and some of Cooper/Aguilar who would ride the bench more with Soler the primary DH. Laureano is going to out hit those guys collectively. This could be a 5 win team improvement if Laureano plays at his career rates.

20 minutes ago, hovertical said:

So on other posts regarding Avisail and others that are struggling you said they need more time before saying they're a bust but Jesus is a "legit solution" in CF on the same small sample size? 

I didn't say that.  I'm being consistent.  Soler and Avi need time to prove themselves before we try to crucify them.  At the same time, Sanchez needs more time to see if his early success is sustainable.  In both instances, I'm asking for patience before coming to a conclusion.

1 minute ago, Rydawg said:

I didn't say that.  I'm being consistent.  Soler and Avi need time to prove themselves before we try to crucify them.  At the same time, Sanchez needs more time to see if his early success is sustainable.  In both instances, I'm asking for patience before coming to a conclusion.

Wow I can't believe you're saying Jesus Sanchez will win the platinum glove and Soler and Garcia should be released and play in the KBO.

2 minutes ago, Michael said:

Wow I can't believe you're saying Jesus Sanchez will win the platinum glove and Soler and Garcia should be released and play in the KBO.

I know you're being sarcastic,  but in today's social media driven culture, I wouldn't be surprised if someone actually interprets it like that..  LMAO 

9 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I know you're being sarcastic,  but in today's social media driven culture, I wouldn't be surprised if someone actually interprets it like that..  LMAO 

Indeed. Lol.

Sanchez has been wonderful so far. Trading for a CF like Laureano isn’t to boot Sanchez from the starting lineup or team.

Instead, he moves to LF or RF, where I’d imagine he’s got a good shot to be above-average defensively if he is near-average in CF.

In that case, the team becomes better, perhaps especially defensively, and the roster gets a lot deeper.

That kind of move may even help free up a veteran like Aguilar to trade at the deadline, regardless of whether the team is contending, if Bleday or Burdick earns the promotion. At that point, you’d have in the outfield:

- RF: Sanchez/Garcia

- CF: Laureano/CF

- LF/1B/DH: Soler, Garcia/Sanchez, Burdick, Bleday, Cooper, Aguilar, DLC

9 guys for 5 starting roles + 3 (?) reserve roles.

That leaves one extra, not even counting that Wendle and Berti can spot start in the outfield. Plus if Lewin Diaz keeps hitting, that’s even another player to add to the mix.

And since this roster isn’t yet solidly playoff-caliber, upgrades are warranted. Keep in mind that it’s typically a lot harder to increase the team’s expected WAR/production as that team improves. Going from 60-65 expected wins is easier than going from 80-85 or 85-90, for example. Does that mean they may have to overpay to go from a decent situation to a good one? In a sense, yes. But doing so, whether via trade or free agency, is often a necessary evil to get to that top 1/3 of the league kind of tier.

Edited April 22, 20224 yr by mystikol87

It kinda feels like a blessing to be at the point where we can argue about the need to acquire "one more piece" to make us a contender. 

7 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

Sanchez has been wonderful so far. Trading for a CF like Laureano isn’t to boot Sanchez from the starting lineup or team.

Instead, he moves to LF or RF, where I’d imagine he’s got a good shot to be above-average defensively if he is near-average in CF.

In that case, the team becomes better, perhaps especially defensively, and the roster gets a lot deeper.

That kind of move may even help free up a veteran like Aguilar to trade at the deadline, regardless of whether the team is contending, if Bleday or Burdick earns the promotion. At that point, you’d have in the outfield:

- RF: Sanchez/Garcia

- CF: Laureano/CF

- LF/1B/DH: Soler, Garcia/Sanchez, Burdick, Bleday, Cooper, Aguilar, DLC

9 guys for 5 starting roles + 3 (?) reserve roles.

That leaves one extra, not even counting that Wendle and Berti can spot start in the outfield. Plus if Lewin Diaz keeps hitting, that’s even another player to add to the mix.

And since this roster isn’t yet solidly playoff-caliber, upgrades are warranted. Keep in mind that it’s typically a lot harder to increase the team’s expected WAR/production as that team improves. Going from 60-65 expected wins is easier than going from 80-85 or 85-90, for example. Does that mean they may have to overpay to go from a decent situation to a good one? In a sense, yes. But doing so, whether via trade or free agency, is often a necessary evil to get to that top 1/3 of the league kind of tier.

Yep, it wasn't an insult to our current starting CF at all.  I wish (i know they won't) they would look for someone, anyone, to take Avisail and get him gone (needs to start freaking hitting though) as that'll help alleviate a big jam out there if they trade for a CF.  Soler, Laureano, Sanchez with DLC, Berti, and even Wendle being able to spot start or slide in in case of injury.  Works for me.  Bring up Lewin and trade Aguilar.  Team gets even better defensively without losing any offensive production.  Win Win all around.

22 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

Sanchez has been wonderful so far. Trading for a CF like Laureano isn’t to boot Sanchez from the starting lineup or team.

Instead, he moves to LF or RF, where I’d imagine he’s got a good shot to be above-average defensively if he is near-average in CF.

In that case, the team becomes better, perhaps especially defensively, and the roster gets a lot deeper.

That kind of move may even help free up a veteran like Aguilar to trade at the deadline, regardless of whether the team is contending, if Bleday or Burdick earns the promotion. At that point, you’d have in the outfield:

- RF: Sanchez/Garcia

- CF: Laureano/CF

- LF/1B/DH: Soler, Garcia/Sanchez, Burdick, Bleday, Cooper, Aguilar, DLC

9 guys for 5 starting roles + 3 (?) reserve roles.

That leaves one extra, not even counting that Wendle and Berti can spot start in the outfield. Plus if Lewin Diaz keeps hitting, that’s even another player to add to the mix.

And since this roster isn’t yet solidly playoff-caliber, upgrades are warranted. Keep in mind that it’s typically a lot harder to increase the team’s expected WAR/production as that team improves. Going from 60-65 expected wins is easier than going from 80-85 or 85-90, for example. Does that mean they may have to overpay to go from a decent situation to a good one? In a sense, yes. But doing so, whether via trade or free agency, is often a necessary evil to get to that top 1/3 of the league kind of tier.

I'd take Laureano in a heartbeat as a FA and move Sanchez to a corner spot.  My problem isn't with the player or wishing to keep Sanchez in CF.  My problem is having to gut the farm system when we have at minimum, a short term solution in Sanchez.  

I'm all for upgrading the roster and getting better.  However, with our financial constraints,  our best approach for sustainable success is to keep the farm system churning out players.  

25 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

Sanchez has been wonderful so far. Trading for a CF like Laureano isn’t to boot Sanchez from the starting lineup or team.

Instead, he moves to LF or RF, where I’d imagine he’s got a good shot to be above-average defensively if he is near-average in CF.

In that case, the team becomes better, perhaps especially defensively, and the roster gets a lot deeper.

That kind of move may even help free up a veteran like Aguilar to trade at the deadline, regardless of whether the team is contending, if Bleday or Burdick earns the promotion. At that point, you’d have in the outfield:

- RF: Sanchez/Garcia

- CF: Laureano/CF

- LF/1B/DH: Soler, Garcia/Sanchez, Burdick, Bleday, Cooper, Aguilar, DLC

9 guys for 5 starting roles + 3 (?) reserve roles.

That leaves one extra, not even counting that Wendle and Berti can spot start in the outfield. Plus if Lewin Diaz keeps hitting, that’s even another player to add to the mix.

And since this roster isn’t yet solidly playoff-caliber, upgrades are warranted. Keep in mind that it’s typically a lot harder to increase the team’s expected WAR/production as that team improves. Going from 60-65 expected wins is easier than going from 80-85 or 85-90, for example. Does that mean they may have to overpay to go from a decent situation to a good one? In a sense, yes. But doing so, whether via trade or free agency, is often a necessary evil to get to that top 1/3 of the league kind of tier.

This. 100%.

 

14 minutes ago, hovertical said:

Yep, it wasn't an insult to our current starting CF at all.  I wish (i know they won't) they would look for someone, anyone, to take Avisail and get him gone (needs to start freaking hitting though) as that'll help alleviate a big jam out there if they trade for a CF.  Soler, Laureano, Sanchez with DLC, Berti, and even Wendle being able to spot start or slide in in case of injury.  Works for me.  Bring up Lewin and trade Aguilar.  Team gets even better defensively without losing any offensive production.  Win Win all around.

Garcia will be fine, but getting Laureano and trading one of Burdick/Bleday in that package "solves" the longterm positional alignment. I wouldn't be worried too much about that. It'll be a blessing if they get another starter with those guys.

But yes - there are no knocks on Sanchez here. They need an UPGRADE and it's STILL CF even if he can sort of do it.

17 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

It kinda feels like a blessing to be at the point where we can argue about the need to acquire "one more piece" to make us a contender. 

I think it's excruciating. I'd rather be 2-3 players away, because you can plausibly "hold" in those scenarios and hope for miracles. But this team? Get the fucking bat. ESPECIALLY with a bottom laughable payroll and 8-10 premium prospects where you can live without 2-3 of them. 

Why don't they have Reynolds and Correa? They could have done that without Aguilar, Soler, and Garcia (which is 1-1 Correa money), and just sign Joc Pederson ($6m) to replace the third of them. Keep the entire same team together minus.... two of Eury/Meyer/Cabrera and Bleday/Burdick? Why didn't this happen? This is why they suck. That team is 5-7 wins better for $10m more bucks and nothing hurting them longterm. It's ridiculous.