July 5, 200521 yr good thing im in vegas right now 840823[/snapback] You might want to wait there in case we never get a new stadium. :confused 840836[/snapback] :plain
July 6, 200521 yr Ross is stealing Cape's reason to live! :lol :lol 840762[/snapback] :lol :lol Quick, someone get some radio news
July 6, 200521 yr 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060906 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA
July 6, 200521 yr Author With each passing model run, South Florida looks like it is more than likely in the clear. I feel bad for those along the area from Pensacola to New Orleans because theyve already gotten Arlene and Cindy this year, and this one looks to be heading there as well, and SHIPS model forecasts Dennis to have 126 mph winds in 72 hours.
July 6, 200521 yr they moved the model about 100 miles closer to us over night.. i checked the computer models last night..
July 6, 200521 yr The only way hurricanes are cool is if they come in the school year. This is just ghey.
July 6, 200521 yr geez, Pensacola still hasn't come even close to recovering from Ivan, and now they're looking at possibly another direct hit from a major. Definitely bad news.
July 6, 200521 yr If this thing is a monster and hits New Orleans we can be looking at very big disaster. I am very concerned at what the models are saying.
July 6, 200521 yr AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.
July 7, 200521 yr I'am not totally worried yet,poor people in panhandle ther getting another hurricane There say it's propaly going to be a Cat3 when it gets near cuba
July 7, 200521 yr If you dismiss this storm as a Panhandle problem then you are mistaken. Several models including the Canadian Ridge model are forecasting a track further east than the National Weather Service models. We will get the wet and wild side of Dennis, so get the water and batteries because you will likely need them.
July 7, 200521 yr OH MAN! Not to be a jerk, but I have a test on Monday. Perhaps no school due to the storm? Insensitive? Yes. Sorry.
July 7, 200521 yr Cape, what is projected for the Tallahassee area? /too lazy to look through thread 843741[/snapback] If it follows the current track as laid out by the NHC, you will get at least Tropical Storm winds. Hurricane force winds are likely. Keep watch at Hurricane Warning 2005 because we will have all the links you need up there. OH MAN! Not to be a jerk, but I have a test on Monday. Perhaps no school due to the storm?843742[/snapback] It all depends on what UF and your professor decide. I would study because you likely will have that test.
July 7, 200521 yr Yes my fellow Americans. Listen to CapeFish. Charley made a lot of people look bad last year. Don't focus on the line in the middle. Focus more on the cone and the directions it shifts.
July 7, 200521 yr Cape, what is projected for the Tallahassee area? /too lazy to look through thread 843741[/snapback] If it follows the current track as laid out by the NHC, you will get at least Tropical Storm winds. Hurricane force winds are likely. Keep watch at Hurricane Warning 2005 because we will have all the links you need up there. OH MAN! Not to be a jerk, but I have a test on Monday. Perhaps no school due to the storm?843742[/snapback] It all depends on what UF and your professor decide. I would study because you likely will have that test. 843755[/snapback] Yeah, dude, I know. I went through this 3 times last year. UF is the freakin' most ridiculous school in this state. We went back to class with Oak Trees down all over the place. Half of G'Ville had no power.
July 7, 200521 yr If it follows the current track as laid out by the NHC, you will get at least Tropical Storm winds. Hurricane force winds are likely. Keep watch at Hurricane Warning 2005 because we will have all the links you need up there. 843755[/snapback] I'm gonna save that to my favorites. Thanks for the help. :thumbup
July 7, 200521 yr Yes my fellow Americans. Listen to CapeFish. Charley made a lot of people look bad last year. Don't focus on the line in the middle. Focus more on the cone and the directions it shifts. 843758[/snapback] Yup, Charley made Kerry look pretty bad in Charlotte County. But that is another thread. :mischief
July 7, 200521 yr latest 2 AM advisory 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS AIMS AT JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA
July 7, 200521 yr wow it shifted again these past two hours. So Florida is back in the cone =[ 843860[/snapback] Right now, it's just the Keys.
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