000

WONT41 KNHC 231837

DSAAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

 

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

 

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.

ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

 

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

This could be headed in the direction of South Florida, but it wouldn't have too much time to strengthen being so close. The first advisory will be at 5 PM.

If you are trying to find it on a map, the center is around 23N, 75W.

Supposed to be a borderline cat 1 hurricane when it makes landfall. Which looks like anywhere from the Keys to St. Lucie is the most likely at the moment.

In the 5PM advisory, the NHC says "A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT."

This is why weathermen suck IMO. They will spend 2 weeks plus talking about a storm that never touches South Florida, now out of nowhere they say "oh, a TD developed and looks like we will have to issue a hurricane or TS watch for it since it might hit within the next day and a half". I mean I know these folks try, but WTF.

This is why weathermen suck IMO. They will spend 2 weeks plus talking about a storm that never touches South Florida, now out of nowhere they say "oh, a TD developed and looks like we will have to issue a hurricane or TS watch for it since it might hit within the next day and a half". I mean I know these folks try, but WTF.

912539[/snapback]

They have been talking about this one for about a week.

This is why weathermen suck IMO.? They will spend 2 weeks plus talking about a storm that never touches South Florida, now out of nowhere they say "oh, a TD developed and looks like we will have to issue a hurricane or TS watch for it since it might hit within the next day and a half".? I mean I know these folks try, but WTF.

912539[/snapback]

They have been talking about this one for about a week.

912543[/snapback]

 

Bleh I haven't heard it, and I guess my point moreso is it is just today designated as a Depression, and all of a sudden oh in a day in a half, maybe two it's making landfall as a Storm, maybe a Hurricane. Some warning...

This is why weathermen suck IMO. They will spend 2 weeks plus talking about a storm that never touches South Florida, now out of nowhere they say "oh, a TD developed and looks like we will have to issue a hurricane or TS watch for it since it might hit within the next day and a half". I mean I know these folks try, but WTF.

912539[/snapback]

You can't exactly predict what a tropical system is going to do before it even forms.

This is why weathermen suck IMO. They will spend 2 weeks plus talking about a storm that never touches South Florida, now out of nowhere they say "oh, a TD developed and looks like we will have to issue a hurricane or TS watch for it since it might hit within the next day and a half". I mean I know these folks try, but WTF.

912539[/snapback]

They have been talking about this one for about a week.

912543[/snapback]

Its part of the same wave that spawned TD 10. But it merged with another distrubance and thus, its TD 12 not regenerated TD 10.

Bleh I haven't heard it, and I guess my point moreso is it is just today designated as a Depression, and all of a sudden oh in a day in a half, maybe two it's making landfall as a Storm, maybe a Hurricane. Some warning...

912545[/snapback]

Takes 3 days to clear out most areas. The east coast of Florida has high ground once you pass I-95.

oh my god.... not good

I really hope skrewl is somehow cancelled Friday. I have a Calculus test on every derative that exists and a Government test on the entire f#%@^ damn constition!

I wonder if my classes will be cancelled Thursday.. It wont be fun driving in that kind of weather

we'll see if school gets canceled....

we'll see if school gets canceled....

912621[/snapback]

Please, God, please, God, please God.. heh..

I wonder if my classes will be cancelled Thursday.. It wont be fun driving in that kind of weather

912616[/snapback]

Why don't you have your chauffeur take you?

 

 

:mischief

I wonder if my classes will be cancelled Thursday.. It wont be fun driving in that kind of weather

912616[/snapback]

Why don't you have your chauffeur take you?

 

 

:mischief

913101[/snapback]

Fritz - stop hittin on Holly.

As of the 11PM advisory, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Southeast Florida from west of the 7 Mile Bridge in the Keys northward to Vero Beach. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in this area within 36 hours. However, with steering currents in the atmosphere being very light and unpredictable, this system could slow down or meander one direction or another, so it warrants watching over the next day or two.

Big deal. A Tropical Storm or Cat.1 Hurricane isn't going to cause much damage, except for flooding if it carries a lot of rain. Nothing to worry too much about though.

Big deal. A Tropical Storm or Cat.1 Hurricane isn't going to cause much damage, except for flooding if it carries a lot of rain. Nothing to worry too much about though.

913180[/snapback]

A Cat 1 Hurricane can be very powerful. Frances brought cat 1 strength gusts to Coral Springs and did quite a bit of damage, a tree fell on our house. Sustained winds could do plently of damage.

Big deal. A Tropical Storm or Cat.1 Hurricane isn't going to cause much damage, except for flooding if it carries a lot of rain. Nothing to worry too much about though.

913180[/snapback]

A Cat 1 Hurricane can be very powerful. Frances brought cat 1 strength gusts to Coral Springs and did quite a bit of damage, a tree fell on our house. Sustained winds could do plently of damage.

913258[/snapback]

Category One's are notorious for their rain, especially in crawlers like this one.

Rain and Katrina will be one. This should be nothing more than Irene was in 1999. Rain, lighting (yes weaker storms have more lightning), and some gusts.

Katrina expected to make landfall in South Florida as a Category 1 Hurricane. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings issued for South Florida.

*sigh* yay.... :confused

 

By the way, does anyone know when this could make landfall?

Actual landfall may not be until Friday morning, but effects could start as early as tomorrow afternoon.

WFOR ready to go wall-to-wall on the drop of a pin. WPLG and WTVJ almost ready to go. WSVN has the reporters, but their studio is being re-done and some space is not there for them to work with.