Considering the Red Sox passed on giving up Jon Lester for Reed (and Meche). The same Jon Lester with a higher minor league WHIP than Olsen and drastically less strikeout totals... nice try though.

 

 

I didn't personally mention Lester, so you should have reffered this comment to someone else. I don't know why you are trying to mock me, but since you apparently think I'm stupid, I will play your game.

 

2005 Double AA stats. Both are 21 years old and lefty.

 

Olsen 80 IP, 6-4, 3.91 era, 10.53 K/9, 1.27 WHIP (H/9 8.40, BB/9 3.02), HR/9 0.78

Lester 148 IP, 11-6, 2.61 era, 9.89 K/9, 1.15 WHIP (H/9 6.92, BB/9 3.46), HR/9 0.61

 

So Olsen DRASTICALLY strikes out 0.64 more men then Lester. You get this DRASTIC extra strikeout production, some less walks and hr from Olsen, but a better whip with Lester because he gives up way less hits. Read into it however you want, but the only huge differance I see with these two is whip. I think Olsen's era is inflated, it could be a low to mid 3.5 era with those numbers, but Lester was still the more productive pitcher any way you look at it.

MarlinsLou. You're obviously very intelligent, but I think you're putting way to much stock in minor league statistics. Especially that of hits allowed. Pitchers have much more control of their walks and homers allowed than hits. What's Olsen's HR/9?

Olsen's 2005 Game Log as a starter:

 

AA:

5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K - W

5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K - W

4.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 6 K

6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 8 K

7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K - W

6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K - W

6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 9 K - L

3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K - L

7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K - L

6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K

6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K - W

3.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K - L

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K - W

 

MLB:

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K - W

5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 K

6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K

1.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K

 

 

The guy is obviously a stud more times then not. I don't know how anyone can look at this and not be impressed. 21 year old lefties with his ability don't come around that often, I agree with those who said he should basically be untradeable.

Olsen's 2005 Game Log as a starter:

 

 

The guy is obviously a stud more times then not. I don't know how anyone can look at this and not be impressed. 21 year old lefties with his ability don't come around that often, I agree with those who said he should basically be untradeable.

 

 

 

I would agree with you if we did not have the depth of Vargas, Petit, Anibal, Gaby, Nolasco, Resop, Johnson, and Pinto, and we had atleast something with potential in the minors with outfielders. We really need a leadoff hitter at 2B or CF for the short and longterm development of this team.

Well I'd obviously be more willing to get rid of a top pitching prospect for Jeremy Reed than Joey Gathright.

 

...but just because we have a hole in CF doesn't mean we have to trade anything necessary to get Joey Gathright.. that just isn't smart.

 

I'd love to see Gathright here but I would sincerely hope we wouldn't give up front of the line potential (Olsen, Petit, Sanchez) for Gathright, because he isn't worth it... and with the way that Tampa Bay deals, I'd just assume stay far far away from them.

I don't know where you get this Zito comparison. Where do you really? Fact is Sowers was already polished and he relies on control. Its very doubtful that he develops into a #1 but its possible. Though Olsen chances are still higher than Sowers. EVeryone in baseball also is higher on Olsen than Sowers. Now if that's your opinion then fine. But don't down grade Olsen or talk bad about him juts cause you don't like him. Facts are facts.

 

 

 

I don't downgrade Olsen because I inherently don't like him. I downgrade him beacuse of FACTS. In the case of Sowers, he has a lower era, substantially lower whip, and excellent K/9 and HR/9 numbers, even if those two categories Olsen has edges in. 7-1 K/BB in double AA. That is amazing. Scout wise, everything you post keeps saying Sowers is POLISHED at an extremely young age and going to be [future hall of famer] TOM GLAVINE. Scouts say about Olsen, he has occasional control problem with his slider, and at best, will have an average # 3 pitch (changeup). Great fastball, great looking prospect, great firey attitude, but the FACTS say to me Sowers is a better pitcher. I have never understood the fascination with clocking fastballs, and because guys top out at higher speeds, they get the benefit of the doubt in scouts eyes against superior pitchers.

 

 

You forget scouts also projected Chris George and Sean Burnett as the next Glavine as well. Its much harder finding the next Glavine or Maddux than it is finding the next Curt Schilling or Johan Santana. Everything has to click for a finese pitcher to be a #1 or top of rotation starter. Sowers can be compared to Vargas. Yet Vargas still has more potential cause has more zip on his fastball and has been pitching less time than Sowers. Olsen is younger than Sowers, has pitched in the bigs and held his own against major's league hitters, has a fastball which is A which is around 91-97 yet he can still get stronger which might improve those #, has a wicked slider which is a strikeout pitch, and a developing change-up. As it is Olsen is already more dominating of a pitcher than Sowers and has room to grow. While Sowers is pretty much done already.

 

I rather have Kerry Wood and his high w.h.i.p anyday he is healthy over Carlos Silva who has excellent control and a good w.h.i.p. In fact you compare Sowers to Zito. Have you ever checked Zito whip? Zito walks a ton of guys. He averages 76 walks per year. His whip standS at 1.22 cause of stuff and hits per inning he allows. Olsen is much closer to Zito in many ways than Sowers will ever be.

Well I'd obviously be more willing to get rid of a top pitching prospect for Jeremy Reed than Joey Gathright.

 

...but just because we have a hole in CF doesn't mean we have to trade anything necessary to get Joey Gathright.. that just isn't smart.

 

I'd love to see Gathright here but I would sincerely hope we wouldn't give up front of the line potential (Olsen, Petit, Sanchez) for Gathright, because he isn't worth it... and with the way that Tampa Bay deals, I'd just assume stay far far away from them.

 

 

 

I think it's going to be very hard to get "equal" value for any of our pitchers. Rival GM's aren't going to settle for our 2nd tier prospects when they see the HUGE glaring hole the Marlins currently have in the OF and 2B, and the lack of a leadoff hitter with MLB potential in the entire organization (Reed does not excite me). Plus the vault of grade A starting pitchers at all levels of the minors where 1-2 of them are certainly expendable. I would LOVE to trade Johnson for Gathright, but that is not going to happen unless you throw in someone like Gaby. And I think that is a worse trade giving up 2 guys for 1. I think no one disagree Gathright is a fantastic fit for the Marlins.

 

You can either agree with this analysis, or not. I think it was stupid not to demand Milledge or Pie from the Mets or Cubs, and keep stock piling an insane number of pitchers. Young pithing depth is fantastic, but they needed to grab 1 more OF, preferably a CF, or a 2B, that is young, has leadoff potential, and can play close to right now. At some point, they have to get some position players. Whether they trade Olsen now, or Gaby or Volstad later. One of these top P is going to go for probably a position player with not as a high ceiling as them. They are only going to be able to wait for so long before the simply have to fill these holes with trading some of the pitchers. Maybe I want to jump the gun to early with seriously gonig after Gathright or a Reed type. That is fair, but at some point, a trade like this is going to have to happen.

Well I'd obviously be more willing to get rid of a top pitching prospect for Jeremy Reed than Joey Gathright.

 

...but just because we have a hole in CF doesn't mean we have to trade anything necessary to get Joey Gathright.. that just isn't smart.

 

I'd love to see Gathright here but I would sincerely hope we wouldn't give up front of the line potential (Olsen, Petit, Sanchez) for Gathright, because he isn't worth it... and with the way that Tampa Bay deals, I'd just assume stay far far away from them.

 

 

 

I think it's going to be very hard to get "equal" value for any of our pitchers. Rival GM's aren't going to settle for our 2nd tier prospects when they see the HUGE glaring hole the Marlins currently have in the OF and 2B, and the lack of a leadoff hitter with MLB potential in the entire organization (Reed does not excite me). Plus the vault of grade A starting pitchers at all levels of the minors where 1-2 of them are certainly expendable. I would LOVE to trade Johnson for Gathright, but that is not going to happen unless you throw in someone like Gaby. And I think that is a worse trade giving up 2 guys for 1. I think no one disagree Gathright is a fantastic fit for the Marlins.

 

You can either agree with this analysis, or not. I think it was stupid not to demand Milledge or Pie from the Mets or Cubs, and keep stock piling an insane number of pitchers. Young pithing depth is fantastic, but they needed to grab 1 more OF, preferably a CF, or a 2B, that is young, has leadoff potential, and can play close to right now. At some point, they have to get some position players. Whether they trade Olsen now, or Gaby or Volstad later. One of these top P is going to go for probably a position player with not as a high ceiling as them. They are only going to be able to wait for so long before the simply have to fill these holes with trading some of the pitchers. Maybe I want to jump the gun to early with seriously gonig after Gathright or a Reed type. That is fair, but at some point, a trade like this is going to have to happen.

 

 

Well said. Only the Devil Rays are in the same position. Other teams are not gonna pay the price they want for what essentially is there 5-6 best OF. Young, Crawford, Baldelli, Gomes, Huff if needed there and Elijas Dukes. The first 4 names no question are higher better than Gathright and Huff is better as well if he stays in the OF. Dukes also has more potential and talent than Gathright. So how do you expect them to get Olsen for Gathright? what other teams can offer anything close to us? by that I mean Hernandez, Pinto, Tankersley, Kensing, Nolasco, Bostick, Mitre?

 

 

Allison, Johnson, Olsen, Petit, Sanchez should all be untouchable. Our 2005 draft class is pretty much ruled out as well cause of the one year rule unless they are PTBNL.

and dont forget that Olsen's last big league start was in Philly and that is a hitters paradise, his other games were gold. Olsen should be untouchable

Basically my whole point to this thread was.. if Seattle supposedly wants a top pitching prospect for Jeremy Reed and Tampa Bay won't budge from them wanting a top pitching prospect for Gathright, why wouldn't we be focusing on trading with Seattle?

 

I mean, if Tampa wants nobody else but Olsen for Gathright... and Seattle wanted Lester for Reed and Meche, we should see if we could do Olsen for Reed. I still don't like that idea.. but it would bring down the value of Gathright so maybe TB would step back a little bit on what they would want. Hopefully Boston just gets Coco so we have both options available and maybe for once we'd be in the driver's seat.

 

I didn't word that how I wanted to but hopefully you get the jist of what I meant.

Jeremy Reed > Joey Gathright

 

More power, better arm, fielding, versitile, and knows how to take a walk.

 

That being said I still don't give up Olsen for Reed and I don't the Red Sox giving up Lester or Paplebon either. Best case senario is Boston only offers Bronson Arroyo and a prospect like Brandon Moos and Seattle takes it or decides its good enough. Either we then step in or let the trade go through and watch as Gathright trade value takes a plunge.

Well said. Only the Devil Rays are in the same position. Other teams are not gonna pay the price they want for what essentially is there 5-6 best OF. Young, Crawford, Baldelli, Gomes, Huff if needed there and Elijas Dukes. The first 4 names no question are higher better than Gathright and Huff is better as well if he stays in the OF. Dukes also has more potential and talent than Gathright. So how do you expect them to get Olsen for Gathright? what other teams can offer anything close to us? by that I mean Hernandez, Pinto, Tankersley, Kensing, Nolasco, Bostick, Mitre?

 

 

Allison, Johnson, Olsen, Petit, Sanchez should all be untouchable. Our 2005 draft class is pretty much ruled out as well cause of the one year rule unless they are PTBNL.

 

 

I wouldn't even include Huff. He isn't in their long term plans. You can also add Bankston though, who is pretty much a corner player. I have no argument saying that Gathright comes after Delmon, Crawford, Bankston, Dukes, Baldelli, and Gomes.... but thing is, Gathright is a better fit then all of them. We have a young 3-4-5, plus Willingham in LF now makes those corner players pointless. Crawford would be amazing, but he is going to be a fortune real soon. Baldelli is starting to get pricey, I believe he just signed an extension also. Then there is Gathright who fills two of our three biggest position player holes (young CF, young 2B, leadoff), and can play right now.

 

I don't know how you came up with that list of pitchers either. For me, if they can get away with anyone besides Petit, Anibal, Olsen, and Gaby, that is amazingly awesome. I don't see the same potential in Johnson, Nolasco, and Allison to not part with them immediatly for a player like Gathright. He's literally the missing piece of the offense. They can find cheap vet 2B and C in free agency when they increase payroll, there are always Grud, Todd Walker, Ausmus, types avaliable, but finding a leadoff hitting CF? Good luck.

 

I'd take Reed over Gathright in a second also.... but really, Joey has a bad rap. .317 in the minors, with consistent OBP over .380 and sometimes .400, is pretty awesome. He drew a walk every 10 AB which is pretty solid. His power stats are pathetic, but they are improving... between Durham and MLB in 05, he doubled his career extra base hits. That counts for something. He is going to start hitting doubles and triples in bunches with that speed.

We can definitely all agree on that point MarlinsLou. It was just plain baffling how or why the Marlins would trade away all that value & not get one single outfielder in return, when the pitching staff (while young) already at least had some young depth in Vargas, Olsen, and Johnson. We had no outfielders at all except for Hermida. And yes I want to see Willingham get his at-bats, but with the amount of good veteran players we traded, they ought to have been able to set the team up at any position they needed. Now we have an overabundance of pitching prospects, and other teams know it.

 

Jeremy Reed would be a perfect fit and we have tons of young pitching. I'll have to fall into the group that doesn't really want to part with Olsen, but Beinfest would be crazy not to try & get something done there. Especially if Tampa isn't budging.

I do not like the idea of trading Olsen while we're rebuilding (I was in favor of moving him as part of the "win now" mentality).

 

That said, I would like to see Beinfest do anything to get Reed in teal. He's not a defensive whiz as some here proclaim, but he's better than most and better than anything we'll probably come away with elsewhere. Here's his '05 scouting report:

 

2. JEREMY REED, of Age: 23 B-T: L-L Ht: 6-0 Wt.: 185

Drafted: Long Beach State, 2002 (2nd round) Signed by: Joe Butler/Matt Hattabaugh (White Sox)

 

 

Background: Reed ranked as the White Sox? No. 1 prospect after leading the minors with a .373 average and .453 on-base percentage in 2003. When they traded Freddy Garcia, the Mariners insisted on Reed in a package that included Miguel Olivo and shortstop prospect Mike Morse. He batted .397 in his big league debut.

 

Strengths: A natural line-drive hitter, Reed controls the strike zone and makes consistent sweet-spot contact. He runs well; his instincts make him a stolen-base threat. His September performance convinced Seattle he can handle center field. His arm is average.

 

Weaknesses: Scouts from other clubs aren?t as sure he can stay in center?particularly in spacious Safeco Field. He needs to improve his jumps and routes on fly balls. Reed may max out at 15 homers a season, which would be below-average power if he has to move to left.

 

The Future: Already having proven he?s more qualified than Randy Winn, Reed should open 2005 as Seattle?s center fielder. He should fit nicely behind Ichiro Suzuki in the No. 2 slot in the order.

 

 

2004 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB

Charlotte (AAA) .275 .357 .420 276 44 76 14 1 8 37 36 34 12

Tacoma (AAA) .305 .366 .455 233 40 71 10 5 5 36 23 22 14

Seattle .397 .470 .466 58 11 23 4 0 0 5 7 4 3

Well. I was very impressed with Reed in the field the few times I've seen him.

 

Here's a link to an old Gammons article in which they polled 50 managers, scouts, GMs and executives.. one of the questions was the best defensive OFs in the game and Reed was already voted the 4th best defensive outfielder in the game... pretty good company ahead of him. So take it for what its worth

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2099547

well if anyone knows das....

 

 

 

they would know i would absolutely 100% be in favor of a deal that could bring jeremy reed to the marlins.

Mariner fans aren't ready to let go of Reed yet...and I know why.I have watched many a Mariner games and he is great in that big ol centerfield at Safeco Field.The fish would be lucky if they ever got him.He is young yes,but quite talented.

Going back to Jeremy Reed i like him but our own Reed (Eric) may grade out just as well I am more concerned about LF than CF. We could use a solid run producer as a corner outfielder. Someone to bookcase with Hermida maybe Jonny Gomes. Jeremy Reed is solid and fast but who would be our LF...Reggie Abercrombie??? We need a corner OF much more

Going back to Jeremy Reed i like him but our own Reed (Eric) may grade out just as well I am more concerned about LF than CF. We could use a solid run producer as a corner outfielder. Someone to bookcase with Hermida maybe Jonny Gomes. Jeremy Reed is solid and fast but who would be our LF...Reggie Abercrombie??? We need a corner OF much more

 

 

 

We just got Miguel Olivo. That would mean Josh Willingham would most likely start LF and when Olivo needs a rest Trenor will back hm up. Willingham will probably be the 3rd option.

I think the basis of the post was to argue that if Seattle is shopping Reed for young pitching we should be at the forefront of the discussions. It's hard to imagine that Seattle would view Arroyo/Clement more appealing than something the Marlins could put together. I can't imagine that everyone doesn't agree that Reed is simply a better player than Gaithright. At a minium, the Marlins should offer Seattle whatever our final offer to Tampa was. And as one who is surprised that Seattle is even shopping him, it looks like from my perspective that they are looking for more in the lines of fair value. And obviously Tampa is looking to make a steal in any trade they make. This is the team that apparently wouldn't trade Julio Lugo for Andy Marte, something I still have a hard time believing.

 

Does that mean that we should trade Olsen to get Reed?I don't know. I think very highly of Olsen and if I'm Seattle I make that trade. Obviously if we could get our hands on Reed without having to give up any of our top tier pitching prospects that would be ideal-Olsen, Petit, Sanchez. I might be inclined to even give up two lesser prospects-maybe Mitre and one of our 05 1st rounders not named Volstad or Thompson-the infamous PTBNL concluding whenever they are allowed to be traded, i believe 1yr exactly.

 

But again, I believe the intention of the initial post is to stress that we should certainly be offering SOMEHTING for Reed as opposed to not being in the discussions at all.

 

Go skins today at 4pm!!

 

Doug Flutie just did a drop kick for an extra point last seen in The Longest Yard.

just a curiousity am I the only one that feels reed reminds me of a young Mikey in a way? try anything leave it all on the field?

reminds me of a young Mikey in a way? try anything?

 

 

Nah, Reed's power numbers aren't high enough for me to think of him as a "try anything" (wink wink) Mikey clone.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but it is good to see Beinfest being patient in this situation. He didn't jump on the Gathright deal and now better options are forthcoming. If nothing else this could get TB to reassess their situation with Gathright.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but it is good to see Beinfest being patient in this situation. He didn't jump on the Gathright deal and now better options are forthcoming. If nothing else this could get TB to reassess their situation with Gathright.

 

 

Absolutely. It's important we're not overpaying for anything less than a can't miss, bona fide great def CF with terrific on base skills. Gathright looks like a good player who might be a good fit for us but certainly not a player we want to give too much for. Reed looks like a much better fit and if we can get him for the right price great, but we should not be bending over for anyone.

 

And I know it seems like we have too much pitching and we need to do something immediately, but......We're not exactly going to win in 06' so its better we take our time and make the right trade on our terms. There is no way in the next two years some team is not going to offer us a terrific young CF'er for a piece of our pitching riches. Everyone knows pitching is harder to come by, and if not the Rays or the M's then someone else. I would still like us to get someone before the season starts so our team can grow together, but again we don't want to make any panic moves.

The Red Sox have been told by the Mariners that the price for Jeremy Reed is Arroyo AND Lester! Reed is a guy the Mariners want to build around unless over-whelmed......which would be something like Olsen and Johnson......and I wouldn't do something like that.

Considering the Red Sox will likely pass on giving up Jon Lester for Reed (and Meche). The same Jon Lester with a higher minor league WHIP than Olsen, higher ERA and drastically less strikeout totals... nice try though.

 

 

I have been under the strong impression that Boston is not willing to trade any of its top pitching prospects for Reed (paps, lester, henson?)

 

I strongly agree that Reed is way better than Gaithright.

 

I have a hard time believing Seattle will trade Reed for anything less than a top prospect. But they do want pitching. I do not want the Marlins to give up any of our top prospects-petit,anibel,and scotty O....but i would love this guy.

 

My main drunken pt is- who can give them a better package than us? If Boston won't part with one of their big three, then a Fla offer of one of our 4-7 SP prospects should beat anyone else.

 

At a minimum, we should offer whatever we offered for Gaithright...Reed could be a long term CF option, a solid young player we could control for years. Basically, the equivalent of any of our young pitchers. Don't trade Olsen or Anibel but pull the trigger!