A cool article on bleacher report comparing the home and away splits of Mike Stanton and MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies.

 

Ever since I first seriously considered the concept, I have taken home/road splits seriously. If you are a Boston Red Sox fan, don't talk to me about Jim Rice or Wade Boggs. Are you are a Chicago Cubs fan? Well, you probably don't want to hear what I have to say about Ron Santo and Billy Williams. And if you want to hear good things about Sandy Koufax, I suggest you look somewhere else.But if you are a fan of Carlos Gonzalez, you may just want to stop reading right here. Good news, though, Mike Stanton fans, you're gonna love every minute of this.

 

Indeed, it has often been suggested that I take home/road splits a little bit too seriously. Maybe.

 

The most common refrain I hear from my critics is "Hey, you know that home games count too, right?"

 

My feeling about home/road splits, though, is that home ballparks are an impediment to truth. When we're comparing players, we don't want to know which players put up better numbers; we want to know who the better player actually was.

 

Thus, if I tell you that in 1995 Dante Bichette had 40 home runs and Mike Piazza had 32 home runs, you might conclude that Bichette was the better player.

 

But what if I told you Bichette hit 31 of his 40 home runs at home in 1995, leaving only nine for the road, while Piazza actually hit 23 of his 32 home runs on the road, leaving only nine at home.

 

It should be clear to you that Bichette wasn't a good home run hitter, but rather that Coors Field was a good home run ballpark, and that Piazza was a way better home run hitter playing in an oppressive ballpark.

 

Now, consider this: if before the 1995 season the Dodgers and Rockies had traded Bichette and Piazza for one another, straight up, then logic dictates that Piazza would have hit approximately 54 home runs while Bichette would have hit 18 dongs.

 

Or something like that.

 

Which brings me to Carlos Gonzalez and Mike Stanton.

 

Gonzalez, of course, plays for the Rockies and is on his way to a National League batting title as well as league-leading totals in hits, slugging percentage, and total bases. Stanton, on the other hand, plays for the Florida Marlins and is having an up-and-down season, with 20 home runs and 20 doubles in 82 games, but also a meager .251 batting average, 100 strikeouts and only 28 walks.

 

To give you an idea of how those numbers look up against each other, have a look:

 

http://baseballevolution.com/images/gonzalezstanton.bmp

 

 

 

Now, obviously if this were the end of the story, I wouldn't have written this article.

 

There is more. A lot more.

 

Gonzalez is, of course, a Colorado Rocky, and humidor or not, we have to be skeptical of his numbers. Sure enough, his home/road splits do not paint a pretty picture:

 

Home runs: 25 at home, seven on the road.

 

RBI: 67 at home, 34 on the road.

 

AVG: .385 at home, .288 on the road

 

OPS: 1.198 at home, .760 on the road.

 

Suffice to say, if Gonzalez were playing on a different team, in a different home ballpark, he'd be having a considerably different season.

 

Meanwhile, quite the opposite effect has happened with Mike Stanton, as being victimized by Sun Life Stadium (or whatever they're calling it these days) has made him the Anti-CarGo:

 

Home runs: six at home, 14 on the road.

 

RBI: 16 at home, 33 on the road.

 

AVG: .172 at home, .305 on the road.

 

OPS: .586 at home, 1.024 on the road.

 

Now, to be sure, Stanton is going to need to figure out how to hit in Florida; a .172 batting average with a .586 OPS would be unacceptable even if he were playing his home games at Solder Field.

 

Nevertheless, look at what a beast he is away from Miami; in other words, look at what a beast he would be if he didn't have to play his home games at Sun Life Stadium.

 

And, just for a purely rhetorical, academic exercise, let's see how Stanton and Gonzalez's road numbers alone match up with one another:

 

http://baseballevolution.com/images/gonzalezstanton2.bmp

 

 

 

This is real folks, this is not a drill.

 

This is happening.

 

So, tell me: if you were starting from scratch and you were going to build a team that was going to play in, say, Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, which of these players would you take?

 

I would take Mike Stanton in a heartbeat, and frankly I think he is the better player.

 

But I may just be taking this all too seriously.

 

Asher B. Chancey

Imagine Stanton playing half his games at Coors.

Imagine Stanton playing half his games at Coors.

 

He would hit balls to the center field cheap seats

I love Car-go but his Home/Road splits don't even come relatively close.

 

Giancarlo could hit 50+ Homeruns a year if he played half his games at Coors.

 

I don't believe he's played a game there yet.

My feeling about home/road splits, though, is that home ballparks are an impediment to truth. When we're comparing players, we don't want to know which players put up better numbers; we want to know who the better player actually was.

 

 

 

I cant say I'm too much in agreeance with that statement. At the end of the season... who cares who has more talent...

 

40 HR > 31.

 

Yeah, it is true that Piazza could've hit more elsewhere... but he didnt. And I think that's the bottom line. Which is why home/road splits are kind of silly. They might help us understand who is a better player, but they're not going to be indicative of who had a better season.

 

Although that probably wasnt the point of the comment anyways.

 

Anyways, I conclude that we should trade Mike Stanton to Colorado so as to make him hit 50+ for 15 years, robbing the title for himself.

If one park is easier to hit home runs in, then that means that it's easier for everyone to hit home runs in. Ergo, each home run an individual player hits is less valuable in a park that is easier to hit home runs in.

 

For instance, if one park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 6 runs per game per team, and another park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 4 runs per game, then the guy playing in the park that gives up 4 runs per game is playing in an environment where each run produced is more important, or valuable, so in decided MVP, it should absolutely matter where you play your home games, though voters don't really care too much about that except when it comes to Colorado, which is why CarGo probably won't win MVP, though he might if he played in another park and had similar home/road splits.

 

That was kind of a rant.

If one park is easier to hit home runs in, then that means that it's easier for everyone to hit home runs in. Ergo, each home run an individual player hits is less valuable in a park that is easier to hit home runs in.

 

For instance, if one park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 6 runs per game per team, and another park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 4 runs per game, then the guy playing in the park that gives up 4 runs per game is playing in an environment where each run produced is more important, or valuable, so in decided MVP, it should absolutely matter where you play your home games, though voters don't really care too much about that except when it comes to Colorado, which is why CarGo probably won't win MVP, though he might if he played in another park and had similar home/road splits.

 

That was kind of a rant.

If one park is easier to hit home runs in, then that means that it's easier for everyone to hit home runs in. Ergo, each home run an individual player hits is less valuable in a park that is easier to hit home runs in.

 

For instance, if one park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 6 runs per game per team, and another park hosts 81 games and gives up an average of 4 runs per game, then the guy playing in the park that gives up 4 runs per game is playing in an environment where each run produced is more important, or valuable, so in decided MVP, it should absolutely matter where you play your home games, though voters don't really care too much about that except when it comes to Colorado, which is why CarGo probably won't win MVP, though he might if he played in another park and had similar home/road splits.

 

That was kind of a rant.

That was so much of a rant it had to be said 3 times.

This reminds me of an earlier exchange I had about Miguel Olivo just a couple of months ago. A lot of people have been talking about the offensive year he has been having, but I pointed out his horrific home/road splits. The response to this was that his BABIP was high, so he had to be doing something right.

 

I hadn't really considered this at the time, but the problem with Coors is not so much that the thinner air allows balls to travel farther, but that it flattens out pitches so they have little to no movement. Consider someone like Miguel Olivo, whose little success in his career has been attributed to his ability to hit fastballs, rather than breaking pitches. He becomes able to crush fastballs in Coors because they are virtually without movement, which leads him to make better contact and put the ball in play more. That's why his BABIP is so high.

 

Coors just distorts the physics of virtually everything. It could have just as easily have been built on the moon. I will pretty much always be skeptical of numbers of a player who has spent half of the season in Denver.

That's what OPS+ and ERA+ are for. Bad idea to look at Colorado and San Diego hitting and pitching stats without park adjusting them. Adrian and Ubaldo are better than they are given credit for and Carlos and Latos are not as good as they are given credit for.

Can we install like an anti-humidor at the new park? I want to see Stanton hit 60 HR, lol.

Can we install like an anti-humidor at the new park? I want to see Stanton hit 60 HR, lol.

 

Get special baseballs for Stanton, like every time a historical home run is supposed to be hit, they use special baseballs for the at bat, so each time Stanton comes up, use the anti-humidor balls only.

 

Rich: "First pitch to Stanton."

*crack*

Rich and Tommy: "HOLY SH*T!"

(Minervini chimes in from the stands)

Craig: "OH MY GOD!"

NASA: "What the hell just hit the Hubble?"

What is it about Coors Field? I constantly hear about how it's so easy to hit there, is it really? Every time we play the Rockies, I'm either on vacation or pissed off at the Marlins.

 

Also, the future is bright, boys.

Along with the thin air to hit more HRs, the OF is shaped funny so OFs almost have to play out of position to guard against XBHs which results in more hits than other parks

 

atleast thats the way i see it

Along with the thin air to hit more HRs, the OF is shaped funny so OFs almost have to play out of position to guard against XBHs which results in more hits than other parks

 

atleast thats the way i see it

 

Yeah, basically everything about Coors makes it Hitter's Heaven.

Along with the thin air to hit more HRs, the OF is shaped funny so OFs almost have to play out of position to guard against XBHs which results in more hits than other parks

 

atleast thats the way i see it

 

Yeah, basically everything about Coors makes it Hitter's Heaven.

 

There's a witty line in here somewhere about the religious organization.....

So now I know!

Along with the thin air to hit more HRs, the OF is shaped funny so OFs almost have to play out of position to guard against XBHs which results in more hits than other parks

 

atleast thats the way i see it

 

I don't think it's that the OF is shaped funny. Obviously there are a lot of homers because of the thin air but also because the outfield is so spacious it makes the outfielders have to cover a lot more room than in other stadiums so you have a stadium that allows more singles, doubles, triples and homers than the norm. A stadium like Citizens allows a lot of homers but because it's small it allows fewer doubles and triples than the norm.

Yeah, the outfield is pretty symmetrical (relatively speaking). They made it spacious to try to compensate for the thin air.

 

If Coors were transplanted to normal elevation, it would probably be a pitcher's park.

And it's probably harder to play, or more specifically pitch, for longer stretches with thinner air.

 

Which is why many athletes go to Denver to train.

So, along with what Out of the Past alluded to, Ubaldo Jimenez should be given more consideration consideration for CY due to him pitching at Coors?

If they're all on the same playing field, i.e.

 

Ubaldo 2.50 ERA 1.00 WHIP etc. etc.

Wainwright 2.50 ERA 1.00 WHIP etc. etc.

 

yeah Ubaldo should get the nod for pitching in a harder ballpark. But no, that doesnt mean he should get a handicap to make him better than anyone else.

If the season ended today Ubaldo should be 2nd in the CY after Halladay.

Wouldn't be that case if JJ didn't get injured though

 

JJ #1 in ERA+, Ubaldo #2