Posted January 6, 201114 yr An interesting perspective, I am not sure if this statistical study is complete, but I think it generates interesting conversation and speculation. http://marlinmaniac.com/2011/01/05/replacing-ugglas-home-runs/ A lot of talk over the course of the offseason surrounded replacing Dan Uggla‘s 30+ home run output from the past few seasons. The idea is that Uggla’s production needs to somehow be replaced on the offensive side, and the Marlins made no offseason moves that difrectly dealt with improving the offensive side of the ball. Of course, all of this talk is nonsense. replacing Uggla’s home runs are not any more important than replacing his doubles, singles, and walks, if weighted properly for the relative value of each event. In other words, teams do not need a certain amount of home runs, walks, doubles, singles, or steals to win baseball games; rather, teams simpy need enough runs to win games. Thus, Uggla’s production in terms of runs needs to be replaced. How will the Marlins accomplish that? The team has primarily listed their reason for confidence in replacing Uggla’s offensive production as the continued growth of and full-year of playing time for Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison. But will the Marlins replace all of that production with just the full-time value of those two youngsters? How will Omar Infante figure into this equation as well? Let’s use some projections to find out. Replacing the home runs As I mentioned, it shouldn’t be important that the Marlins replace Uggla’s homers, but that is what fans will focus on the most. What will the team do without Uggla’s run-driving capabilities via the long-ball, they’ll ask. Well, let’s see if the Marlins’ general plan of using Stanton and Morrison for a full season combined with Infante’s production as a direct replacement for Uggla in the lineup. Here are the ZiPS projected HR/600 PA rates for each of the players involved for the 2011 season. Player HR/600 PA Uggla 27.6 Infante 7.5 Stanton 32.4 Morrison 11.8 Giving the players even playing time (set at 600 PA here), you can see that the Marlins are projected to already replace about seven to eight of Uggla’s 30 or so homers just from the addition of Infante. Meanwhile, Stanton and Morrison are projected to put up more than 44 homers per 600 PA combined. However, the Marlins are not “replacing� anyone in those positions, other than perhaps themselves. While it is acceptable to compare Uggla’s and Infante’s raw HR/600 rates for this comparison, we need to compare Stanton’s and Morrison’s projected numbers against the players they are replacing, mainly the 2010 versions of themselves. Here is how these projections stack up against the 2010 version of the two players. Player 2010 HR/600 PA Proj 2011 HR/600 PA Stanton 33.3 32.4 Morrison 4.2 11.8 So it seems that, if you were to compare a full projected 2011 season from Stanton and Morrison versus a full season of Stanton and Morrison at last year’s rates, you would expect to gain around six or seven homers, almost entirely from Morrison’s expected increase in long balls. Comparing a full projected 2011 season from both players to their 2010 seasons at their respective playing times yields a gain of just about 20 home runs (with 600 PA projected for both in 2o11). If that’s the case, then yes, we just about replace all of Uggla’s homers with additional playing time from Stanton and Morrison and Infante’s contributions. Give it to me in runs As I mentioned, however, replacing the home runs is, in and of itself, meaningless; what is important is replacing Uggla’s total run contribution to the team. Once again, we’ll use ZiPS as the projection system of choice and project wRAA / 600 PA for each player in 2011. Player Proj wOBA Proj wRAA/600 PA Uggla .359 +14 Infante .332 +1 Stanton .355 +12.5 Morrison .361 +15.5 This table paints a rosy picture for Marlins fans. While Infante does not necessarily help to replace Uggla’s production, he doesn’t hurt the cause either, being essentially a league average hitter. Meanwhile, Morrison and Stanton figure to stay strong with their respective bats, projected to hit essentially at their 2010 levels. Stanton’s projected .355 wOBA is exactly what he had last season, while Morrison’s dropoff is more significant at about five runs less than a full season of his 2010 (.369 wOBA) production. This combined with the regression ZiPS expects from Uggla seems like enough to fully replace his runs. However, one has to keep that this answers the question of how the Marlins will replace the 2011 version of Dan Uggla that is projected here by ZiPS. This does not answer how the Marlins will replace the 2010 version of Uggla that hit 33 homers and had a .381 wOBA last season which was worth +32 runs above average according to FanGraphs. In other words, the Marlins should expect to able to replace Uggla’s production for 2011 with the parts they already have in place. However, they cannot expect to get the same production from Stanton, Morrison, and Infante in 2011 as they did with Uggla in 2010. Morrison and Stanton can only expect to add about five runs more over the course of a whole season than they did last year; I’d even be willing to give them more like eight or nine runs more than last season. Infante, who serves as a direct replacement to Uggla, can expect to give the team +1 run above average, meaning the Marlins are maybe adding +10-12 runs for the 2011 sesason, just around what ZiPS is projecting Uggla for 2011, but not anywhere close to what he produced in 2010. The Marlins’ offense should be worse than last year just from simple regression, but what about the defense? I would expect Uggla to be a -7 run defender based on what we know scouting-wise and defensive projections that I have done earlier in the year. Infante is expected to be an average defender at second base, meaning the Marlins gain seven runs just from adding a competent defender at the position. That helps to bridge the gap signficantly between the 2010 Uggla and the 2011 Marlins who will replace him. When considering the entire package, the answer to replacing Uggla and his production with Stanton, Morrison, and Infante lies somewhere in between “completely replacing him� and “falling way short.� The Fish did an adequate job in filling in for Uggla in 2011, but as expected the team will have to depend on its youth to get the job done.
January 6, 201114 yr I'm just glad his unprecedented power production from the second base position won't be clogging our payroll for the next five years. Take that, Braves!
January 6, 201114 yr I'm just glad his unprecedented power production from the second base left field position won't be clogging our payroll for the next five years. Take that, Braves! Fixed that for you.
January 6, 201114 yr I'm just glad his unprecedented power production from the second base left field position won't be clogging our payroll for the next five years. Take that, Braves! Fixed that for you. Haha, I sure hope Danny saves LoMo and Cog's phone numbers, cause he's not too far from calling them up for advice on transitioning to left field.
January 6, 201114 yr I'm just glad his unprecedented power production from the second base left field position won't be clogging our payroll for the next five years. Take that, Braves! Fixed that for you. Not according to the Braves' beat writer: "If Uggla's glove proves to be too much of a liability over the next few seasons, the Braves could always approach him about the possibility of changing positions. But for now the plan is for him to spend the next five seasons as Atlanta's second baseman." http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2011/01/wren_makes_a_neccessary_gamble.html
January 6, 201114 yr I'm just glad his unprecedented power production from the second base left field position won't be clogging our payroll for the next five years. Take that, Braves! Fixed that for you. Not according to the Braves' beat writer: "If Uggla's glove proves to be too much of a liability over the next few seasons, the Braves could always approach him about the possibility of changing positions. But for now the plan is for him to spend the next five seasons as Atlanta's second baseman." http://markbowman.ml...ary_gamble.html Yeah..."for now." If Uggla stays at 2B for the next 5 years, he'll probably reach the level of being historically bad. He's bad as it is right now, and his range won't be improving as he ages. Plus, the Braves already have a better 2B on the team that they just so happen to be putting in LF "for now."
January 6, 201114 yr 5 years is way too long. Where is he going to play when he cant play 2b anymore? LF/1b? Ouch. Still going to be atrocious. Uggla should be DHing in 2 years, but he won't.
January 6, 201114 yr Yup, according to the ATL writers, Prado goes to left. For how long, who knows? Funny thing about Uggla (other than that he'd be asking you whether you want fries with that burger if he weren't a ballplayer and the useless filler-words "you know" come out of his mouth more than almost anyone else in the league as his brain constantly struggles, usually unsuccessfully to keep up with his mouth) is that he's always been adamant, whenever his name came up in trade rumors that he would not consider a change of position. He seems to have stuck to that demand, probably because he knows he'd suck even worse elsewhere than 2B. At this point, having signed a contract, he probably couldn't care less. As his range inevitably deteriorates over the next 2-3 years and he becomes a true butcher at 2B instead of being merely substandard, he better hope his offense holds up. If it doesn't, he'll have his money if ATL eats salary to dump him, but he could wind up as the biggest contract-bust since Willis. Meanwhile, his silly little juvenile game to one-up Hanley by a million failed by $8 mill. Sounds about right. I remain extremely happy that he's gone.
January 6, 201114 yr Yup, according to the ATL writers, Prado goes to left. For how long, who knows? Funny thing about Uggla (other than that he'd be asking you whether you want fries with that burger if he weren't a ballplayer and the useless filler-words "you know" come out of his mouth more than almost anyone else in the league as his brain constantly struggles, usually unsuccessfully to keep up with his mouth) is that he's always been adamant, whenever his name came up in trade rumors that he would not consider a change of position. He seems to have stuck to that demand, probably because he knows he'd suck even worse elsewhere than 2B. At this point, having signed a contract, he probably couldn't care less. As his range inevitably deteriorates over the next 2-3 years and he becomes a true butcher at 2B instead of being merely substandard, he better hope his offense holds up. If it doesn't, he'll have his money if ATL eats salary to dump him, but he could wind up as the biggest contract-bust since Willis. Meanwhile, his silly little juvenile game to one-up Hanley by a million failed by $8 mill. Sounds about right. I remain extremely happy that he's gone.
January 6, 201114 yr Mad? No. Just happy to be rid of the guy. He, beyond his abject ignorance and concomitant regular fielding and base-running brain-farts, is also a hypocrite who hasn't the slightest clue what the word means. Let us all recall how he and Hanley were "brothers" and how Hanley made him better. About how grateful he was that we gave him a chance, without which he well might have been a permanent minor league journeyman with the occasional September call-up, during which he could strike out a lot. No team is better off with a hypocritical moron on it, as Atlanta will soon discover. Beyond being rid of this idiot who somehow imagined that he was worth more than Hanley, I also look forward to a season free of his horrible, self-embarrassing air-conditioning ads.
January 6, 201114 yr Beyond being rid of this idiot who somehow imagined that he was worth more than Hanley, I also look forward to a season free of his horrible, self-embarrassing air-conditioning ads. I seriously doubt that's true. He just wanted out of here and that was his way of getting it done. We could have just signed him to one more year and most folks here would be yelling to get a contract done with him. But he outright showed the FO he didn't want to stay. So now he is hated on these boards. Call all that hypocritical of him if you want. But looking at it from an athlete's/performer's point of view, it is somewhat understandable. I don't exactly agree with the way he went about it, but it's over with. Move on.
January 6, 201114 yr I seriously doubt that's true. Well, when Hanley is signed to 6/70 and you demand 5/71, and say that you won't settle for anything less, that states what you think you're worth pretty clearly, no? Never mind that you're a knucklehead (not you, Uggla) and come back to semi-reality later and sign for much less. I moved beyond this yahoo a long time ago.
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