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9/21 Post Game Thread


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Well, tough loss..

But the good news is the Marlins still have a chance to get to within 1 game of the Braves heading into the final weekend of the season.

Let’s take the next 3!

 

 

 

Edited by SirFishFan
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Mattingly impressing me with his post game comments about Monte's aggressive attempt.

Regardless of how Donnie or anyone feels about the play, Donnie will not bury his player in public. If Donnie berates Monte to the media there, Monte will never play hard for Mattingly again and other players may react the same way. Publicly supporting what Monte did there will boost the player's morale. Now don't get me wrong, if Donnie thinks Monte didn't make the right play he can talk to him behind closed doors about it but, even if it's not sincere, giving the player his support in public is the right move there.

This is a perfect example of what makes Donnie a great player's manager even if some of his on field decisions can be puzzling.

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It took a perfect play to get Monte there like Don basically said. You try for that every time, because the defense won't make a perfect play usually.

I'd rather go down "swinging" than play cautious there.

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6 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

It took a perfect play to get Monte there like Don basically said. You try for that every time, because the defense won't make a perfect play usually.

I'd rather go down "swinging" than play cautious there.

I am shocked at how ok, or, how not upset I was at that loss last night. For such a frustrating game I still felt like it was a great game and we did many things right and the Braves just happened to win. The game had several moments that could have gone either way and led to a very different outcome. The Marte line out is the perfect example, what else can you possibly do in that situation.

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I just watched the play again and I hadn't even taken into account that Swanson was the shortstop, not the 3rd baseman... which means Monte went because third base was unoccupied since Riley had gone to the mound in case Melancon couldn't field the ball and Swanson was at 2nd base in case of a double play... so here is what Monte saw as he was approaching second base, look at where the shortstop and 3rd baseman are...

Screenshot_20200922-101011.thumb.jpg.319d61c6de0c3fcb8f653a1d18553c1c.jpg

This dude is an aggressive player with excellent speed, he truly believes he can reach third before anyone else, that's if anyone even realizes on time that he's on the way and even then the throw over has to be perfect and so does the attempted tag. I'll admit that being more cautious there might have been smart but when I see this picture I can't fault Monte for going for it.

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If Monte plays it safe and stays at second, then next batter hits a long flyout, we'd be reading people today saying he fucked us by not trying for the extra base there when it was unoccupied. It is easy to judge and toss blame after the fact.

I understand it would have been a man on second with 1 out and middle of lineup coming up, but I stand by it being the right move to try for it there. Especially with how poor our offense is at driving in runs anyway. We need to force the issue for every run it seems.

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Magic numbers (team(s)):

Playoffs: 5 (PHI*)

Division 2nd place: 5 (PHI*)

Division 1st place: 11 (ATL-)

Games left: 6

Marlins no longer control their destiny for the division. Even if we take the last 3 in Atlanta we would have to rely on Boston to get 1st place.

 

* = Marlins clinched the tiebreaker

+ = Marlins lead the tiebreaker

- = other team leads the tiebreaker

-x = other team clinched the tiebreaker

 

Note that the magic numbers posted assume all respective teams play 60 games.

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Runner on 2nd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.67
Win Probability: 19.15%

Runner on 3rd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.93
Win Probability: 29.6%

Bases emptry, 2 outs, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.10
Win Probability: 2.8%

If Monte succeeds, he adds 0.25 expected runs, and increases win probability by 10 percentage points. 
If he fails, he loses 0.57 expected runs and cuts the win probability by 16 points. 

Edited by SongInTheAir
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2 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

If Monte succeeds, he adds 0.25 expected runs, and increases win probability by 10 percentage points
If he fails, he loses 0.57 expected runs and cuts the win probability by 16 points

So if the scenario occurs 26 times and you are safe 16 and out 10, then you add a total of 160 percentage points and lose 160 percentage points. In other words, if you are safe more than 16/26 or 61.54% of the time then you are improving your odds of winning. I would say on that particular play he had a greater than 61.54% chance given the fact that the Braves had to make near perfect execution on the play.

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7 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

Runner on 2nd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.67
Win Probability: 19.15%

Runner on 3rd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.93
Win Probability: 29.6%

Bases emptry, 2 outs, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.10
Win Probability: 2.8%

If Monte succeeds, he adds 0.25 expected runs, and increases win probability by 10 percentage points. 
If he fails, he loses 0.57 expected runs and cuts the win probability by 16 points. 

Oh wow thanks for this because everyone against the play said there was zero reason to take third there.

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2 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

I just watched the play again and I hadn't even taken into account that Swanson was the shortstop, not the 3rd baseman... which means Monte went because third base was unoccupied since Riley had gone to the mound in case Melancon couldn't field the ball and Swanson was at 2nd base in case of a double play... so here is what Monte saw as he was approaching second base, look at where the shortstop and 3rd baseman are...

Screenshot_20200922-101011.thumb.jpg.319d61c6de0c3fcb8f653a1d18553c1c.jpg

This dude is an aggressive player with excellent speed, he truly believes he can reach third before anyone else, that's if anyone even realizes on time that he's on the way and even then the throw over has to be perfect and so does the attempted tag. I'll admit that being more cautious there might have been smart but when I see this picture I can't fault Monte for going for it.

This is a great breakdown. Thanks!

And someone on Twitter from MLB was saying Monte was going over 31 ft/s -- basically the fastest anyone in baseball ever runs (the league leader in Statcast sprint speed, Tim Locastro, currently runs 30.8 ft/s as his average top speed). Freeman had to gun the ball over to a moving target, a shortstop who was racing the fast man in baseball to the bag. Monte actually beats him to the bag, but the throw beats Monte.

Very impressive play by a couple of great defenders.

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1 hour ago, SilverBullet said:

Oh wow thanks for this because everyone against the play said there was zero reason to take third there.

It's a high risk high reward play, that I think was the correct play at the time. I agree with Mattingly (gasp!) that Harrison should do that again in the same situation. If that had been the third out, then we'd be having a totally different conversation. It took the perfect physical play from Freeman and the perfect mental decision from Dansby. Monte didn't make a bad decision, he just got caught taking a worthwhile chance. 

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I was a bit worried how Mattingly would respond on Montes decision to take third.  Glad he had his back.  We can't afford to have public call-outs and decisiveness now when we are so close.

Im still steamed when Mike Redmond turned his back on José publicly because McCann (prick) made a fuss about a pitcher hitting his first HR because he wasn't trotting to home.

 

Edited by jeffreysfishfry
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2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

I hate how the game is played on calculators nowadays

It's played on a baseball field. The device you are playing RBI Baseball on is not a calculator, although it may have a calculator feature. Are you confused? 

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36 minutes ago, jeffreysfishfry said:

I was a bit worried how Mattingly would respond on Montes decision to take third.  Glad he had his back.  We can't afford to have public call-outs and decisiveness now when we are so close.

Im still steamed when Mike Redmond turned his back on José publicly because McCann (prick) made a fuss about a pitcher hitting his first HR because he wasn't trotting to home.

 

Yeah that was an awful move by Redmond. I was thinking about that again recently when Jayce Tingler said that Tatis shouldn't have swung at that 3-0 pitch. 

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3 hours ago, SongInTheAir said:

Runner on 2nd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.67
Win Probability: 19.15%

Runner on 3rd, 1 out, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.93
Win Probability: 29.6%

Bases emptry, 2 outs, Visitors -1 runs

Run Expectancy: 0.10
Win Probability: 2.8%

If Monte succeeds, he adds 0.25 expected runs, and increases win probability by 10 percentage points. 
If he fails, he loses 0.57 expected runs and cuts the win probability by 16 points. 

Lol you got this from reddit didn’t you?

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