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2022-2023 Offseason Thread

Featured Replies

13 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Honest answer... probably passively having trade talks with multiple teams but since no one wants to budge yet she's waiting for someone to make the first move. So basically the lack of urgency is again the problem.

If trades start to pick up then maybe she'll get something done but don't expect her to initiate any of it. She'll keep listening and checking in but we'll get to spring training and nothing will be done. Then after camp opens she'll check on any remaining free agents who are desperate and out of options.

It's funny. Lack of urgency is something I'd get hammered on very early on in my career by some of the more frenetic partners. I was like 24... It's a problem I usually chalk up to youth or inexperience. It's wild that this may be happening to Kim, with all the age and experience she has. 

Or maybe she just sucks and the lack of urgency is really just a lack of motivation 

2 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Screenshot 2022-12-13 at 10.15.17 AM.pngThis is so sad!

"We've got almost no players to promote like the other teams so come buy tickets to see our coaching staff!"

Haha, I feel bad for the marketing team because you know they still have to promote stuff but the damn FO won't give them anything to work with so they gotta resort to this trash.

They were/are advertising their "holiday bundle" as "come celebrate the Cy Young with Sandy in 2023"... what? That's not a physical thing to sell. There's no Cy Young celebration. Buying tickets doesn't give you that. They're selling nothing. Also seen them advertising celebrating the 30th anniversary but once again there's nothing physical there. Just odd stuff.

Also I'm done caring about or celebrating the coaches. We've been sold such crap about recent hires like Rowson and Duncan and whatever it doesn't mean they all suck but it's all nonsense if results on the field don't happen. I'm ok with everyone on Skip's staff and congrats to all of them but get it done on the field asap.

Just now, SonOfJack said:

Absolutely nothing, just like last off-season and then the trade deadline this past season.

Well to be fair they did bring in 3 offensive upgrades last year, they just turned out to be downgrades. And Groshans was a smart trade. But yes much more is needed.

 

TBH I kind of like that idea above and to expand:

Ship out Pablo and Garret (and Scott and Rojas) and get Arraez and Jansen

Ship out prospects for Rosario, which I just realized if they get Jansen could be Mack which is perfect, in addition to say Miller/Millbrandt and Burdick and Cleveland has got to be happy about that

Ship out whatever guys for Michael Taylor and we deal with CF issues another year down the road

And then sign Rodon. For a lot. I am thinking 8-9/$200 (yes), but it's effectively say a 3/$87 deal with a 6/$113 insurance policy (or maybe 5 years instead?). Basically, take the bet Rodon kills and opts out and shoots for a DeGrom deal when he is 33. It's the same bet you'd be making with Correa who will require an opt out, but at $100m+ less of longterm payroll if something goes wrong as he'd be $300+ as a player.

This team is roughly $111m in 2023:

Jansen, Fortes
Cooper (Arraez)
Jazz
Rosario, Wendle
Arraez, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
M. Taylor (Sanchez)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers (Eury and Eder, and Fulton next year)
_____, Floro, Chargois, Nance, "Club Controlled" (Sixto, and Meyer and Bender next year)
Bleier, Okert, Castano (Nardi/Simpson)

Extend Jansen for 5/$55m-ish (ages 28-32)
Extend Rosario for 5/$65-70m (ages 27-31)
Extend Arraez for 5/$65ish (ages 26-30, + maybe an option year very expensive)
Extend Luzardo for 5/$35 + option (ages 25-29)
Extend Jazz for 6/$70m (ages 25-30, if he'd take it. The other guys all would)

What an offseason and everyone is good on cheap contracts and happy they got paid. Those all comp out to arbitration buy out comparables. And we fight the longterm CF battle again next year.

It won't happen but how could any owner be upset with that team for $111m, and your club control on your starting lineup is:

5 (with two catchers)
1 (and then Berry)
4+ (if Jazz would do an extension)
5 (and then Watson)
5 (and then Salas/Cappe if he has to move)
5 (assuming DLC/Sanchez/Bleday work into a low end starter)
1 (need a CF still)
3 (Garcia)
1-2 (Soler)
5+ (Cabrera, Rogers, Eury Eder)
5 (Sandy)
3+ (Rodon)

You have immense cost certainty and then for the love of god, your first two picks in 2023 better be college outfielders.

You'd open 2024 with 23 guys signed for roughly $107m and need a starting 1B and CF, and a backup 2B/SS type. And still have 9 SP (Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Eury, Eder, Fulton, Meyer) and four high end bats on paper (Berry, Salas, Cappe, Watson... plus 2023 picks) and there is certainly trade opportunities here for a CF, the backup 2B/SS is cheap, and 1B is likely a stop gap as we wait for Berry.


Like how about we do this and have a cohesive plan?

1 minute ago, MarlinsLou said:

Like how about we do this and have a cohesive plan?

We can repeat the same things they should do 5000 more times but at some point, it's time for people to just accept reality. They either don't know what they are doing or don't care.

Just now, SonOfJack said:

We can repeat the same things they should do 5000 more times but at some point, it's time for people to just accept reality. They either don't know what they are doing or don't care.

Why can't it BOTH.

I choose all of the above.

20 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Well to be fair they did bring in 3 offensive upgrades last year, they just turned out to be downgrades. And Groshans was a smart trade. But yes much more is needed.

 

TBH I kind of like that idea above and to expand:

Ship out Pablo and Garret (and Scott and Rojas) and get Arraez and Jansen

Ship out prospects for Rosario, which I just realized if they get Jansen could be Mack which is perfect, in addition to say Miller/Millbrandt and Burdick and Cleveland has got to be happy about that

Ship out whatever guys for Michael Taylor and we deal with CF issues another year down the road

And then sign Rodon. For a lot. I am thinking 8-9/$200 (yes), but it's effectively say a 3/$87 deal with a 6/$113 insurance policy (or maybe 5 years instead?). Basically, take the bet Rodon kills and opts out and shoots for a DeGrom deal when he is 33. It's the same bet you'd be making with Correa who will require an opt out, but at $100m+ less of longterm payroll if something goes wrong as he'd be $300+ as a player.

This team is roughly $111m in 2023:

Jansen, Fortes
Cooper (Arraez)
Jazz
Rosario, Wendle
Arraez, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
M. Taylor (Sanchez)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers (Eury and Eder, and Fulton next year)
_____, Floro, Chargois, Nance, "Club Controlled" (Sixto, and Meyer and Bender next year)
Bleier, Okert, Castano (Nardi/Simpson)

Extend Jansen for 5/$55m-ish (ages 28-32)
Extend Rosario for 5/$65-70m (ages 27-31)
Extend Arraez for 5/$65ish (ages 26-30, + maybe an option year very expensive)
Extend Luzardo for 5/$35 + option (ages 25-29)
Extend Jazz for 6/$70m (ages 25-30, if he'd take it. The other guys all would)

What an offseason and everyone is good on cheap contracts and happy they got paid. Those all comp out to arbitration buy out comparables. And we fight the longterm CF battle again next year.

It won't happen but how could any owner be upset with that team for $111m, and your club control on your starting lineup is:

5 (with two catchers)
1 (and then Berry)
4+ (if Jazz would do an extension)
5 (and then Watson)
5 (and then Salas/Cappe if he has to move)
5 (assuming DLC/Sanchez/Bleday work into a low end starter)
1 (need a CF still)
3 (Garcia)
1-2 (Soler)
5+ (Cabrera, Rogers, Eury Eder)
5 (Sandy)
3+ (Rodon)

You have immense cost certainty and then for the love of god, your first two picks in 2023 better be college outfielders.

You'd open 2024 with 23 guys signed for roughly $107m and need a starting 1B and CF, and a backup 2B/SS type. And still have 9 SP (Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Eury, Eder, Fulton, Meyer) and four high end bats on paper (Berry, Salas, Cappe, Watson... plus 2023 picks) and there is certainly trade opportunities here for a CF, the backup 2B/SS is cheap, and 1B is likely a stop gap as we wait for Berry.


Like how about we do this and have a cohesive plan?

I really wish you were our GM sometimes.

Not being sarcastic, either - you've been making these posts for years and it always made me wonder how you weren't in some front office somewhere with all this information and planning.

5 minutes ago, Michael said:

I really wish you were our GM sometimes.

Not being sarcastic, either - you've been making these posts for years and it always made me wonder how you weren't in some front office somewhere with all this information and planning.

I'd take Lou's ideas and thought process over Kim and Bruce's any day of the week.

3 minutes ago, Michael said:

I really wish you were our GM sometimes.

Not being sarcastic, either - you've been making these posts for years and it always made me wonder how you weren't in some front office somewhere with all this information and planning.

It takes two to tango - we can all aggregate information from Fangraphs, Statcast, and make statistical trades that all make sense on paper given what "the industry" believes, but it's still an eye of the beholder scenario. Do these other teams like these players? Medical issues? Can this guy hold up defensively? Are they open to arbitration buy outs (Yelich), or do they want to bet on themselves (Ozuna)? etc.

Basically, I think the FO is a lot smarter than it appears to be right now, but something is missing. I think this is a scared money thing. The Marlins are scared for making a mistake because the margin of error is so low - hence why the theme of everything is BRUCE SUCKS THE MOST. You can't make a mistake if you don't do anything as any other deal is hypothetical. Scared money don't make money and this is the Marlins.

Whereas I would say, they need to operate like Billy Beane in his Oakland prime and wheel and deal, spend money when necessary (Oakland was always cheap but they did spend on random contending years here and there, etc.), and give the fans some hope. Even if that's only 4 out of every 10 years. Frankly, that's a big step forward IMO. And they are positioned right now to do it and options are dwindling fast.

1 minute ago, SilverBullet said:

I'd take Lou's ideas and thought process over Kim and Bruce's any day of the week.

Same. Though considering there doesn't seem to be ANY thought process from Kim and Bruce, I'd pretty much take anyone here over them.

3 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Same. Though considering there doesn't seem to be ANY thought process from Kim and Bruce, I'd pretty much take anyone here over them.

Be careful what you wish for. We might get @TaiwanAstros as the GM!

2 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Same. Though considering there doesn't seem to be ANY thought process from Kim and Bruce, I'd pretty much take anyone here over them.

It's Bruce. He's probably pissed Garcia/Soler cost some bucks so no radical money deals right now, and when they win 79 games doing nothing next year, Kim says look we were right and improved 10 games and the pitching is good - we should have you know, gotten those 8-10 more wins we talked about pre 2023 spring training. And maybe Bruce will let them do something then when there is more proof in concept. 

Of course, now we've wasted a year of control on that list above and who knows what is available via sign or trade next offseason, when we have this data readily available the team will be just under .500 right now doing nothing, but it is what it is. At least the pitching will be a year older and maybe Meyer/Bender are back?

It's just time though and to stop kicking the can. Bruce needs to invest "something" and Kim needs to plant some trade flags to fit into their budget. And yea, maybe the SP is thin short term if you have to trade 2-3 of the top 6 guys to do it, but you're hoarding those farm arms so buck up and find another Thompson and Bender and conjure up another unexpected Garret performance out of Castano/Sixto and figure shit out. That's the job.

3 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Be careful what you wish for. We might get @TaiwanAstros as the GM!

 

3 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Sign me up

"OK so we've signed 18 shortstops ... what do we do now?"

"EXTEND THEM!"

"But we've just signed them to long deals!"

"SPEND MORE MONEY!"

32 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Well to be fair they did bring in 3 offensive upgrades last year, they just turned out to be downgrades. And Groshans was a smart trade. But yes much more is needed.

 

TBH I kind of like that idea above and to expand:

Ship out Pablo and Garret (and Scott and Rojas) and get Arraez and Jansen

Ship out prospects for Rosario, which I just realized if they get Jansen could be Mack which is perfect, in addition to say Miller/Millbrandt and Burdick and Cleveland has got to be happy about that

Ship out whatever guys for Michael Taylor and we deal with CF issues another year down the road

And then sign Rodon. For a lot. I am thinking 8-9/$200 (yes), but it's effectively say a 3/$87 deal with a 6/$113 insurance policy (or maybe 5 years instead?). Basically, take the bet Rodon kills and opts out and shoots for a DeGrom deal when he is 33. It's the same bet you'd be making with Correa who will require an opt out, but at $100m+ less of longterm payroll if something goes wrong as he'd be $300+ as a player.

This team is roughly $111m in 2023:

Jansen, Fortes
Cooper (Arraez)
Jazz
Rosario, Wendle
Arraez, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
M. Taylor (Sanchez)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers (Eury and Eder, and Fulton next year)
_____, Floro, Chargois, Nance, "Club Controlled" (Sixto, and Meyer and Bender next year)
Bleier, Okert, Castano (Nardi/Simpson)

Extend Jansen for 5/$55m-ish (ages 28-32)
Extend Rosario for 5/$65-70m (ages 27-31)
Extend Arraez for 5/$65ish (ages 26-30, + maybe an option year very expensive)
Extend Luzardo for 5/$35 + option (ages 25-29)
Extend Jazz for 6/$70m (ages 25-30, if he'd take it. The other guys all would)

What an offseason and everyone is good on cheap contracts and happy they got paid. Those all comp out to arbitration buy out comparables. And we fight the longterm CF battle again next year.

It won't happen but how could any owner be upset with that team for $111m, and your club control on your starting lineup is:

5 (with two catchers)
1 (and then Berry)
4+ (if Jazz would do an extension)
5 (and then Watson)
5 (and then Salas/Cappe if he has to move)
5 (assuming DLC/Sanchez/Bleday work into a low end starter)
1 (need a CF still)
3 (Garcia)
1-2 (Soler)
5+ (Cabrera, Rogers, Eury Eder)
5 (Sandy)
3+ (Rodon)

You have immense cost certainty and then for the love of god, your first two picks in 2023 better be college outfielders.

You'd open 2024 with 23 guys signed for roughly $107m and need a starting 1B and CF, and a backup 2B/SS type. And still have 9 SP (Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Eury, Eder, Fulton, Meyer) and four high end bats on paper (Berry, Salas, Cappe, Watson... plus 2023 picks) and there is certainly trade opportunities here for a CF, the backup 2B/SS is cheap, and 1B is likely a stop gap as we wait for Berry.


Like how about we do this and have a cohesive plan?

@MarlinsLou, I always wondering how much time you need to make a long and rich content post like this ? 

 

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