Reyes would be a good flyer on a healthy MiLB deal and they should trade for Feyereisen and sit on him until September when he is healthy. He can pitch a few weeks this year and avoid being a super 2 (if that matters for a reliever) and have 4 more years of control. That would be some cheap and potentially radical RHP bullpen upgrades. Still would be good to get one more, but it would be some real progress and aligns with being cheap to a fault.

5 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

What's the connection with signing Bassitt and then trading a catcher? Seems weird, what am I missing there?

Yeah, I had to read that 5 times before I figured out they just meant they may want more starters.

 

4 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

I don't know, but Toronto could use another SP and an OF upgrade. You know, like Braxton Garrett and Max Kepler.

For instance, assuming the Twins don't get Correa (or even if they do?), Polanco/N. Gordon are heavy RHP splits guys and they can cover SS/2B and Farmer who they traded for, plays both and hits lefties. Rojas would be perfect for them to split everyone out in the infield (this is assuming Arraez is the Marlins trade target of course). Lewis could also take over SS in a year. Twins also need depth lefties - they could really use Bleier/Scott/Okert as a 2nd/3rd bullpen lefty and Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds would all be welcome AAA depth and future pen arms. I took a look and they have two on their 40 man.

What I'm getting here is, in a world Larnach-Buxton-R. Lewis/A.Martin/Wallner cover the Twins OF (and N. Gordon and I believe Farmer and Kiriloff can pop out there also), Kepler isn't needed and he makes a lot of sense for the Blue Jays. Arms will always be appreciated for a contender

So:

Marlins - Arraez, D. Janson, Mid-Tier Twins Prospect
Twins - P. Lopez, Rojas, Scott/Okert, Nardi/Simpson
B. Jays - B. Garrett, M. Kepler

Pablo and Garrett are steep here, but these are two longterm bat solutions (assuming Arraez can play 100+ games at 3B/2B) for their lowest control and lowest upside SP, and frankly, that Twins prospect may be more important than depth lefties which they are good at finding. And they can trade Stallings to recoup a depth lefty, so it's effectively Pablo/Garrett for Arraez/Jansen once the smaller guys and payroll net out.

I think everyone is pretty happy here? Twins get a massive starter and depth options, Blue Jays two very useful guys to break up their catcher redundancy, and the Marlins two big bat upgrades + shedding payroll

So now, the Marlins are sitting at $75 million-ish for this:

Jansen, Fortes
Cooper (Arraez)
Jazz
_____, Wendle
Arraez, Berti
DLC, Sanchez
______
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Cabrera, Luzardo, ______
_____, Floro, Chargois, Nance, Sixto/Brazoban/Whoever
Bleier, Okert/Scott, Castano

We're likely talking about signing a stop gap 1 year SP and maybe a bullpen longman/innings eater (unless they think Castano/Sixto can do that?) while we wait for Eury, Eder, Fulton, and then Meyer and Bender. All of whom are virtually untouchable given two SP were just shot out. Wade Miley? If we believe in the young pitcher, I say let's believe in the young pitching.

And then I'd say, what does Cleveland want for A. Rosario which I imagine could be a prospect trade and avoid using Berry/Salas/Cappe/upper level pitchers for that. Maybe they'd go for something based on Miller and Peguro/Gerardo. This clears $8-9m for Cleveland so they could use that to sign someone more useful for them and take some HR prospect swings. I think the Marlins have the goods here to do it if Cleveland would take a longterm approach. They have other options so doesn't impact MLB team.

And then figure out CF. This could even be Michael Taylor who is unspectacularly solid and wouldn't cost the top prospects again, and they could play Sanchez out in CF 60 games vs RHP. It's a band aid yes and I am CF cheerleader # 1, but if C/3B/SS are figured out with longterm options (I imagine a Rosario 5/$70 extension sort of thing), that is acceptable to me.

So that's yea another hypothetical of the Marlins having an interesting team on paper that would stand a chance for under $100m. I'd like to say, push it to $115m and just sign Rodon and not a stop gap SP there, but let's not get crazy. Spending bottom 20th payroll after 20 years of being lowest in baseball is absurd.

As others have said, I commend you for coming up with so many variations of trade proposals, while the FO just seems to twiddle their thumbs.

 

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

It takes two to tango - we can all aggregate information from Fangraphs, Statcast, and make statistical trades that all make sense on paper given what "the industry" believes, but it's still an eye of the beholder scenario. Do these other teams like these players? Medical issues? Can this guy hold up defensively? Are they open to arbitration buy outs (Yelich), or do they want to bet on themselves (Ozuna)? etc.

Basically, I think the FO is a lot smarter than it appears to be right now, but something is missing. I think this is a scared money thing. The Marlins are scared for making a mistake because the margin of error is so low - hence why the theme of everything is BRUCE SUCKS THE MOST. You can't make a mistake if you don't do anything as any other deal is hypothetical. Scared money don't make money and this is the Marlins.

Whereas I would say, they need to operate like Billy Beane in his Oakland prime and wheel and deal, spend money when necessary (Oakland was always cheap but they did spend on random contending years here and there, etc.), and give the fans some hope. Even if that's only 4 out of every 10 years. Frankly, that's a big step forward IMO. And they are positioned right now to do it and options are dwindling fast.

At this point, who cares about making a mistake.  DO SOMETHINGGG

 

2 hours ago, hovertical said:

Kim is monitoring this thread.

I wish.  Maybe she'd get some ideas and make a move.

50 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

At this point, who cares about making a mistake.  DO SOMETHINGGG

 

I think this is the philosophy they need to take.

The ripcord is if they suck July 30, 2025/2026, you can just salary dump and blow it out. What's another fire sale, but let's go for it? Fuck Atlanta, Steve, and Philly. Bet on the pitching. Be the Texas Rangers and sign guys a year early to improve morale and CULTURE which is non-existent.

19 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I think this is the philosophy they need to take.

The ripcord is if they suck July 30, 2025/2026, you can just salary dump and blow it out. What's another fire sale, but let's go for it? Fuck Atlanta, Steve, and Philly. Bet on the pitching. Be the Texas Rangers and sign guys a year early to improve morale and CULTURE which is non-existent.

I just want them to pretend like they care.

Marlins interested in everyone! Sign no one! In other news, leading off for fosh next year, Jon Jay.

LMFAO

Cohen : Billy, I just aware Correa still unsigned, let's sign him. 

Eppler : Boss, we have Lindor already. 

Cohen : Doesn't matter, just keep spending. 

Eppler : ………

MLB needs to do something, Cohen and Sherman all need to go, one spend too much and one never spend. 

Edited December 14, 20223 yr by TaiwanAstros

I think the only way the Mets land Correa is if he somehow gets far below what is expected. Bogaerts got 11/280 and Turner got 11/300, and they're both older than Correa. Have to figure Correa gets at least 10/300. I'm not even sure Cohen would be willing to eat that tax hit. And what would they do? Put Correa at third base?

Sherman and Ng need to teach Cohen and Eppler how to stay calm and not making the “emotional moves ”.

Correa to the Giants! 13/350

 

Ohtani contract gonna be bonkers

2 hours ago, knglover said:

Correa to the Giants! 13/350

 

Thank Giants, @MarlinsLou no more need to waste his time to suggest the cheap ass Sherman to spend big on Correa. 

By the way, congrats @el_gmac, your second team (or first team ?) acquires the player that Marlins would never to sign under cheap ass Sherman. 

Edited December 14, 20223 yr by TaiwanAstros

 

8 hours ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Sherman and Ng need to teach Cohen and Eppler how to stay calm and not making the “emotional moves ”.

6 hours ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Thank Giants, @MarlinsLou no more need to waste his time to suggest the cheap ass Sherman to spend big on Correa. 

By the way, congrats @el_gmac, your second team (or first team ?) acquires the player that Marlins would never to sign under cheap ass Sherman. 

Well they *could* still do it. But it'll take a miracle like this. Multiple epic trades and Rodon.

 

Marlins - Arraez, Jansen, Horowitz (a low-level 1B prospect from Blue Jays throw in)
Twins - Pablo, Rojas (who now makes more sense in a platoon since they don't have Correa), Scott/Okert/Bleier, Simpson/Nardi
Blue Jays - B. Garrett, Kepler

Makes sense for everyone here big time.

 

Then I'm assuming Swanson is well out of price range/Atlanta resigns as this stage, so Rosario is screaming here. They need outfielders.... so you again need to be insanely creative

Cleveland - R. Laureano, Burdick
Miami - A. Rosario, X. Curry (backend SP prospect ready now from Cleveland)
Athletics - J. Miller, I. Lewis/Morisette, McCambley/Johnson/King, Palacious, Cleveland Comp. Balance Pick

They get outfielders, we get Rosario and some injury replacement innings, and Oakland gets a very large prospect package highlighted with a pretty good arm with Miller and major upside with Lewis. The rest of the things seem like "Oakland" projects for sure. Works all around I think.

 

So then the Marlins need a center fielder, and since you got Jansen and presumably resigned him, you can trade your catchers. Arizona doesn't have longterm catchers nor good catching prospects in their system, so leverage that as Varsho isn't moving back. Now this may be controversial, but you have to get a CF so fucking go for it.

Arizona - Meyer/Eder/Fulton, Salas/Cappe/Watson, N. Fortes, J. Mack/R. Hernandez, Soriano/Villalobos/etc.
Miami - A. Thomas, Mantiply, Canzone (a low-level 1Bish prospect, and a lefty which they have many of), Throw-In 

Thomas and Mantiply solve CF and another pen arm for now, Canzone along with Horowitz above starts a "hope and prayer" 1B pipeline after Cooper, and the Marlins lose BIG BIG time talent here, but CF depth in baseball is horrible so they must do something. If anything here, maybe the throw-in from Arizona is a bit better and more of a top 10-20 Arizona system guy. Everyone in baseball wants their CF, so they'll have to pay up. But that's OK. Cash in the farm. 

 

THEN, continuing mental gymnastics, you give Rodon 8/$200 and be done with it, three year opt out after 3/$87 sort of thing and take the bet he opts out at 33 years old and doesn't blow up his arm. This is the Werth acquisition. They have to spend on SOMETHING even if they go super value everywhere else.

 

So this team is $110m in 2023 and payroll is fine longterm as guys expire, or can be bought out:

C - Jansen, Stallings
1B - Cooper (Arraez)
2B - Jazz
SS - Rosario, Wendle
3B - Arraez, Berti
LF - DLC, Sanchez
CF - A. Thomas
RF - Garcia
DH - Soler
SP - Sandy, Rodon, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers
RHP - Floro, Chargois, Enright, Nance
LHP - Mantiply, Bleier, Okert, Castano

Remaining prospects - Eury, Berry, two of Meyer/Eder/Fulton, two of Salas/Cappe/Watson, and then it gets rough as you cleared out the last high end guys and multiple mid-tier ones, but you have guys like Groshans, Sixto, Nasim, Edwards, Mack/Hernandez, Millbrandt, the new guys (Curry, Horowitz, Canzone), and a bunch of reliever types. Not great, but not terrible. And guys like Bleday/Jerar/Bender who are not prospects are controlled with options FWIW. The good news here is, the MLB is insanely club controlled besides 1B/DH so you may not need to tap into the farm much for 1-2 seasons so it organically rebuilds.

 

I think you can get that team to a 40+ WAR projection and there is some major breakout potential if Sandy/Rodon/Jazz are in fact 6+ WAR players, and guys like Thomas/Luzardo/Cabrera/Rogers are all more than 2+ WAR guys, plus Garcia/Soler not sucking, and Arraez/Rosario/Jansen are in their primes and could chip in some more. Cooper is in a real contract year, etc. It'll give them a chance and that's an 85 win team probably and will need those 1 run game luck/career years to get them a WC berth.

 

So they *could* do this, but they need to have some confidence, make many bold and definitive moves, sign a Jayson Werth deal, and go for it. It's down to Swanson and Rodon here, and you can do all of that above with Swanson instead and just swap the Cleveland deal for a SP somewhere else.

 

Or sit around, do nothing, cash checks, and keep moving the goalposts and complain about Steve Cohen and yet do nothing besides sign "smart" AAA players

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Or sit around, do nothing

This is what they'll do. I look forward to the day you accept that. You have lots of ideas and plans, but they've given you zero reasons to think they'll do it. Time to just accept reality.

1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

This is what they'll do. I look forward to the day you accept that. You have lots of ideas and plans, but they've given you zero reasons to think they'll do it. Time to just accept reality.

I've accepted that? This is complaining?

3 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I've accepted that? This is complaining?

You obviously haven't accepted it because you are still writing a thesis on what they can do every day.

7 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

You obviously haven't accepted it because you are still writing a thesis on what they can do every day.

Grief takes a variety of forms

Why is Groshans not in any permutation of lineups or trades though?

 

From what I've read and all, there is no reason to believe he wont be part of the picture for 2023. 

I love how Lou makes all these long posts about how the team can be competitive, even though he knows deep in his heart the team isn't going to do anything of the sort.  Well I commend you for seemingly doing more work than the front office.

47 minutes ago, Das Texan said:

Why is Groshans not in any permutation of lineups or trades though?

 

From what I've read and all, there is no reason to believe he wont be part of the picture for 2023. 

For me, it's because they want a "Turner" and kicked the tires on Abreu. They clearly want a corner upgrade, and I see no viable path for Groshans opening day if they do that because Jazz/Berti/Wendle or Rojas/or both for a SS platoon, is a pretty locked in top 4 middle infielders. If they do nothing, it's a Groshans/LeBlanc last infield spot for sure. With Turner/Abreu/Drury/Longoria/Twins blogs say they are poking at Arraez, Groshans is next man up, etc.

Or maybe they put him in CF because they have many brilliant ideas like that

8 minutes ago, LordMagnus said:

I love how Lou makes all these long posts about how the team can be competitive, even though he knows deep in his heart the team isn't going to do anything of the sort.  Well I commend you for seemingly doing more work than the front office.

Yea given I won't care Spring training-July 30th if Chargois is the big add, we're in midseason right now.

Sounds like I need to pull out the letter from last year and copy paste it.

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Yea given I won't care Spring training-July 30th if Chargois is the big add, we're in midseason right now.

I also worry they're so obsessed with keeping Captain Rojas in there that they'll continue to run him out there almost every day until we'll be wishing he was as "good" as he was this past offseason.