Steve Cohen is probably pissed off now also tbh.

11 hours ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Let's predict the date of the first BIG MOVE, my prediction is December 20.

January 5th, 2023

 

12 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

 

This is who I've been thinking the Marlins might  finally sign. I give it a 10% chance.

6 minutes ago, hovertical said:

This is who I've been thinking the Marlins might  finally sign. I give it a 10% chance.

Cue him signing with Boston.

29 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

 

Bargain bin signing coming right up. 

Justin Turner !?

JD Martinez !?

Michael Conforto !?

3 minutes ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Justin Turner !?

JD Martinez !?

Michael Conforto !?

5 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

So what's your preference ?

4 minutes ago, TaiwanAstros said:

So what's your preference ?

Oh I am not necessarily saying no to them. I am saying that's the front office reply.

30 minutes ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Justin Turner !?

JD Martinez !?

Michael Conforto !?

If we got that and a closer I'd say we had a pretty good offseason but I don't see it happening so oh well.

12 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

 

Can't wait for us to sign him and for him to implode/not be good anymore.  That's a very Marlins thing to happen.

 

Just now, SilverBullet said:

If we got that and a closer I'd say we had a pretty good offseason but I don't see it happening so oh well.

Who's left?

1 hour ago, TaiwanAstros said:

Justin Turner !?

JD Martinez !?

Michael Conforto !?

Given that this team needs a minimum 7-8 WAR influx of talent to contend (i.e. compete with Phillies/Brewers/Giants as last wild card as ATL/NYM-STL-LAD/SD is pretty set IMO), none of this moves the needle.

Just look at the Marlins projection - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20

So let's say they did sign Turner for 500 PA, Conforto for 550 PA, and they do trade for some other upgrade (Jansen, Rosario, Varsho/Thomas, etc.). This is definitely an offensive improvement over 1600-1700 PA, and those guys might all collectively be 7+ WAR of talent.... but you are losing something as some pitcher must be traded for one of the younger guys on top (-1 WAR at least), and then the Marlins do have competent low end 1-2 WAR players at the positions/PA those would be replacing.... so best case scenario doing "all" of that is the 37 WAR projection might move to 40 WAR if it works out perfect This is STILL 4+ WAR to go to get to Philly/Milwaukee, i.e. if they did this and they could have dropped Correa/Rodon on top and got there. Ship obviously sailed.

So if that is not going to happen, why sign these guys? Effectively, they need to sign Swanson OR trade for Reynolds and Bednar/Brubaker. That'll become some OOMPH production, and then taking on 2-3 of these smaller acquisitions (Turner in both scenarios, Conforto if you did sign Swanson and then trade for an Arizona CF and sign a SP, Jansen, etc.) make sense.

If they are going to half ass it and the whole offseason is Conforto and Turner, why spend as it's just burning money? Unless the idea is there will be more than 1 deadline trade this year?

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

f they are going to half ass it and the whole offseason is Conforto and Turner, why spend as it's just burning money

BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CARE AND/OR DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING

5 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Given that this team needs a minimum 7-8 WAR influx of talent to contend (i.e. compete with Phillies/Brewers/Giants as last wild card as ATL/NYM-STL-LAD/SD is pretty set IMO), none of this moves the needle.

Just look at the Marlins projection - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20

So let's say they did sign Turner for 500 PA, Conforto for 550 PA, and they do trade for some other upgrade (Jansen, Rosario, Varsho/Thomas, etc.). This is definitely an offensive improvement over 1600-1700 PA, and those guys might all collectively be 7+ WAR of talent.... but you are losing something as some pitcher must be traded for one of the younger guys on top (-1 WAR at least), and then the Marlins do have competent low end 1-2 WAR players at the positions/PA those would be replacing.... so best case scenario doing "all" of that is the 37 WAR projection might move to 40 WAR if it works out perfect This is STILL 4+ WAR to go to get to Philly/Milwaukee, i.e. if they did this and they could have dropped Correa/Rodon on top and got there. Ship obviously sailed.

So if that is not going to happen, why sign these guys? Effectively, they need to sign Swanson OR trade for Reynolds and Bednar/Brubaker. That'll become some OOMPH production, and then taking on 2-3 of these smaller acquisitions (Turner in both scenarios, Conforto if you did sign Swanson and then trade for an Arizona CF and sign a SP, Jansen, etc.) make sense.

If they are going to half ass it and the whole offseason is Conforto and Turner, why spend as it's just burning money? Unless the idea is there will be more than 1 deadline trade this year?

Even with that they also need Jazz to stay healthy (big IF at this point) and for guys like Avi to return to their career norms and figure out the back end of the bp.

1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CARE AND/OR DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING

Why are you yelling, I/we know this

 

2 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Why are you yelling, I/we know this

 

Because I'm tired of repeating myself

1 minute ago, hovertical said:

Even with that they also need Jazz to stay healthy (big IF at this point) and for guys like Avi to return to their career norms and figure out the back end of the bp.

Sure, but also look at the projection - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=20

Sandy, Jazz, dare I say Garcia, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Rogers, and the bullpen might all be 1+ WAR low. While they are very kind to the catchers, MI/SS, and "team LF who is also playing CF," they are underselling some of the upside here.

It's just very said - a $110m Marlins team would be really good and we could easily project them to the Phillies/Brewers (top 12-15 team in baseball) as the 6th best team in the NL. So they'd have a chance even with Uncle Steve flexing with backup catchers for $15m ala yesterday.

12 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

So if that is not going to happen, why sign these guys? Effectively, they need to sign Swanson OR trade for Reynolds and Bednar/Brubaker. That'll become some OOMPH production, and then taking on 2-3 of these smaller acquisitions (Turner in both scenarios, Conforto if you did sign Swanson and then trade for an Arizona CF and sign a SP, Jansen, etc.) make sense.

If they are going to half ass it and the whole offseason is Conforto and Turner, why spend as it's just burning money? Unless the idea is there will be more than 1 deadline trade this year?

The answer should be sign Swanson AND trade for Reynolds, etc.

 

----

 

I mean, they showed us last offseason that they had no problem wasting money on players not worth what they spent.  Why should we expect the "we tried" waste of money stop now?

Edited December 16, 20223 yr by rmc523

Just now, rmc523 said:

The answer should be sign Swanson AND trade for Reynolds, etc.

 

----

 

I mean, they showed us last offseason that they had no problem wasting money on players not worth what they spent.

Yes - and they still COULD do it! Maybe they had to wait for Rodon to get off the board and now the top 5 SP available in the league are Pablo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett, and Luzardo, and I don't think that is hyperbole as who wants to give Eovaldi $80m when you could trade some FV50 prospects or two for those guys making peanuts and controlled for 2, 4, 6, 6, and 4 years there.

But Bruce seemingly is that cheap.

28 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

BECAUSE THEY DO NOT CARE AND/OR DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING

They are all professional baseball people so they of course know what they're doing, it's just want to make big signings or big trades OR NOT. 

55 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

If we got that and a closer I'd say we had a pretty good offseason but I don't see it happening so oh well.

I think getting those guys alone sucks as mentioned above. Let's assume Turner/Conforto were to cost $25m dollars in payroll. If I'm trying to figure out how best to serve this franchise longterm and Bruce says you have $25m to spend. It's not signing those guys - it's absorption. 

Yankees are in luxury tax hell. Donaldson makes 1/$27.5 then a $6m buyout next year. Hicks makes 1/$10.7, and then $9.7m, $9.7m, and $1m buyout (yikes). Same positions as Turner and Conforto.

IF the Marlins were to absorb $25m of Donaldson and Hicks in 2023 (so Marlins $25m, Yankees $13m) - which is what Turner and Conforto make, Yankees eat Donaldson buyout and half of Hicks here on out (so Marlins have Hicks for $4.5m in 2024 and 2025 and Yankees pay the buyout)..... Donaldson/Hicks have a 3 WAR 2023 projection and Turner/Conforto a 4 WAR projection. Of course, Conforto *could* explode (would he?) so the upside is much better with him, but you didn't just bail the Yankees out of $25m in 2023 here, they are a 2x Luxury tax payor so you've bailed the Yankees out of $37.5m in 2023 and got another $9m off their books eating part of Hicks for a nominal amount in 24/25. That is a lot of money. This is saving the Yankees $50m on those players.

So why not do something like this if our north star is Bruce has $25m to spend.

Yankees - Braxton Garrett, Joey Wendle, and saving $32 million dollars in 2023, and $9-14m dollars in 2024/2025 combined depending on luxury status
Marlins - Donaldson, Hicks, Peraza, Pereira, Throw-in Outside top 20 arm(s)

(The $37.5m number changed because Wendle makes some money. They'd roll out IKF/Wendle at SS, Cabrera/LeMahieu/Wendle at 3B, and wait on Volpe/Sweeney. They could also just sign Swanson and accept luxury hell, but they cleared out all that deadweight money for them so do they care?)

Peraza is very very good and they love him so something notable will have to go back with Garrett. A controlled lefty the Marlins can burn? Sign me up for a longterm SS who looks great. Pereira is 2024 starter and they can slum with Hicks/Sanchez/DLC/Bleday in CF until it happens. Donaldson is likely traded to a contender at the deadline so they'll likely save some money there if he looks good. He could be a good DH contender someone can pick up for nothing. Who cares TBH.

So now you got SS and CF figured out on paper, and basically all of this money sheds off by 2024 as who cares about those limited amounts Hicks makes.

Also, Marlins still have $5m to spend here since I'm hypothetically moving Wendle, so find a bulk reliever to be 6th SP/bullpen for 2023.

Is this a contending team? Fuck no, but this is a lot smarter than some 1 and done Turner/Conforto deals. And yes, this is a kick the can/move the goalpost decision but *this* at least makes sense.

And you still got Pablo to trade so you could jack up the Blue jays for Danny Jansen/Orelvis Martinez/others (now you gain salary with jansen, but lose with Pablo so now you have $8m to spend in 2023).

All of a sudden the team looks like this:

Jansen, Fortes (Stallings can be moved for whatever)
Cooper (With Berry coming)
Jazz (Edwards AAA)
Peraza, Rojas
Donaldson, Berti (with Groshans and AAA and O. Martinez coming after)
DLC, Sanchez (with Bleday in AAA still)
Hicks (with Pereira coming)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, $8m Stop Gap 2023 SP (with Eury, Eder, Meyer, Sixto, AND Fulton coming)
And the bullpen is average at best, but you'd hope a SP trickle down eventually happens here... or just fucking trade Salas/whoever for David Bednar because you don't need 2B/SS/3B as you just got Peraza and O. Martinez who are absolutely massive prospects.

 

This cost you Pablo, Garrett, Wendle, and absorbing a lot of Donaldson/Hicks.

Now THAT is how you spend $25m. Fuck this Turner/Conforto bullshit. If you're going to be cheap, you MUST be creative. 

1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

Why are you here and typing 27,000 posts?

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Why are you here and typing 27,000 posts?

Excuse me?