I’m torn about adding to this team. It’s nice to see some better talent, and I’m happy they are at .500. They also have an awful run differential. Maybe I’m just lazily splitting the difference, but if they’re going to make deals, I hope it’s for players with control beyond this year (or they sign them to extensions right away).

3 hours ago, WillyumKeef said:

It's something mental with Cabrera. His career BB/9 in the minors is 3.1. 

Majors 5.5

3.1 in minors is fairly bad, especially with his stuff.

 

I believe in him.

13 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

I’m torn about adding to this team. I’m happy they are at .500. They also have an awful run differential.

Haven't we in the past had a positive run differential and at the same time been 10 under .500 and in fourth or last place? When's the best time to add then? Right now a postseason spot is in reach, add to this team. 

9 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Haven't we in the past had a positive run differential and at the same time been 10 under .500 and in fourth or last place? When's the best time to add then? Right now a postseason spot is in reach, add to this team. 

Agreed. 

I also saw someone say yesterday that this isn't a contending team. They'd potentially make the playoffs (tied with SD for final WC slot) if the season ended today. That's a contending team in my book.

The mistake would be sitting by and waiting for that to fade.

What was the run differential on the 03 team when McKeon came in?

1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

Agreed. 

I also saw someone say yesterday that this isn't a contending team. They'd potentially make the playoffs (tied with SD for final WC slot) if the season ended today. That's a contending team in my book.

The mistake would be sitting by and waiting for that to fade.

The postseason slots go by wins and losses and games back, not by run differential.

Just now, SilverBullet said:

The postseason slots go by wins and losses and games back, not by run differential.

Run differential is a more overrated stat than 1 run wins

47 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Run differential is a more overrated stat than 1 run wins

I really do wonder if Kim thinks the Marlins are good or merely lucky now that they've literally reversed their 1 run fortunes since last year.  I hope she still believes it's more luck than talent and doesn't believe repeated 1 run victories are a sustainable path to success.

16 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

I’m torn about adding to this team. It’s nice to see some better talent, and I’m happy they are at .500. They also have an awful run differential. Maybe I’m just lazily splitting the difference, but if they’re going to make deals, I hope it’s for players with control beyond this year (or they sign them to extensions right away).

I'm not torn.  Add.  Don't be like 2020 and just do nothing to build on the feel good/success.

I agree that moves should be made for controllable assets, though.  Short term pieces should only be acquired closer to the deadline if we're "for sure" in contention and need a few "final" pieces.

 

3 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

Agreed. 

I also saw someone say yesterday that this isn't a contending team. They'd potentially make the playoffs (tied with SD for final WC slot) if the season ended today. That's a contending team in my book.

The mistake would be sitting by and waiting for that to fade.

Yeah, how many times do we see us doing ok and then collapse.

 

58 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Run differential is a more overrated stat than 1 run wins

Agreed.  You can have a bunch of close games, and then have 2 blowout losses and your run differential plummets into the negative.

Sure, differential in general would mean you're scoring more than your opponent and winning, but it's not always the case.

4 hours ago, hovertical said:

I really do wonder if Kim thinks the Marlins are good or merely lucky now that they've literally reversed their 1 run fortunes since last year.  I hope she still believes it's more luck than talent and doesn't believe repeated 1 run victories are a sustainable path to success.

The 1 run thing isn't sustainable but it's gotten us this far. She could realize this and still try to add to the team to be better from here on out. The 1 run wins still count so take advantage of them now so I would love if she did that.

Run differential is one of the best predictors of future success, better than 1-run games record, for sure. Discrediting it doesn’t make sense. 

20 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

Run differential is one of the best predictors of future success, better than 1-run games record, for sure. Discrediting it doesn’t make sense. 

2007 Diamondbacks: -20 run differential, 90-72 record.

33 minutes ago, Michael said:

2007 Diamondbacks: -20 run differential, 90-72 record.

Outlier m8

27 minutes ago, Michael said:

2007 Diamondbacks: -20 run differential, 90-72 record.

i'm sure that's an outlier though and typically teams with really good run differential will win more games than lose.  12-0 in 1 run games is a bit on the lucky/outlier side of things right now as well.  There's a reason it's an MLB record now.  Good and great teams are going to trend towards a + run differential and win more 1 run games than they lose.  Saying one is a better indicator of success than the other isn't really a factual statement (at least with what's been presented on these boards so far).  I would be willing to bet 3 or 4 of @pollythewog houses though that the great teams excel at both.  Some years teams do seem to have the balls land just fair more than just foul though too in close games but those are just outliers. 

In a nutshell, Kim is blind if she thinks 12-0 in one run games is purely a mark of how 'good' this team is versus a mixture of being better this year and also having some luck mixed in to get to that result.  I want to see her add more NOW rather than wait until the deadline.  I don't know who would be available for trade though to be honest as so many teams are still in it.

Hi.

Edited May 12, 20233 yr by FishFan95

1 hour ago, mystikol87 said:

Run differential is one of the best predictors of future success, better than 1-run games record, for sure. Discrediting it doesn’t make sense. 

So the Marlins should ignore their current decent position in the postseason standings and not bother the rest of the season? 

Why even play the rest of the games if the predictors say there's no chance?

Just step aside and let the other teams jump ahead of us? 

Might as well just forfeit the rest of the season if the run differential is bad at this point right?

Another thought... if a team can add a new player or two to the lineup, doesn't that completely shake up the argument of run differential as a predictor because the players and lineup change? The run differential is based off the lineup from previous games. If additions change the lineup then there's no way it's an accurate predictor anymore is it? 

Just now, SilverBullet said:

Another thought... if a team can add a new player or two to the lineup, doesn't that completely shake up the argument of run differential as a predictor because the players and lineup change? The run differential is based off the lineup from previous games. If additions change the lineup then there's no way it's an accurate predictor anymore is it? 

Yep, one of the reasons it isn't a useful stat.

1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

Yep, one of the reasons it isn't a useful stat.

Who was the old manager who would say that stats explain what has already happened, doesn't guarantee what's gonna happen next. I can never remember who said it but that has always stuck with me. 

16 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Who was the old manager who would say that stats explain what has already happened, doesn't guarantee what's gonna happen next. I can never remember who said it but that has always stuck with me. 

To be fair, if a guy is batting .200 for five years a in row, chances are, he's a .200 hitter. While nothing is 100 percent certain, past performance is absolutely the best predictor of future results and anyone who tries to deny it is kidding themselves. This is why certain free agents get paid significantly more than others. Because of what they've done in the past.

As for the run differential argument, we are talking about a very small sample size here where a couple of blowout losses will severely skew the numbers. We are only 40 games into a 162-game season, so yes; the run differential is obviously subject to change, especially if and when guys like Segura get their heads out of their rear ends. It is also additionally subject to change if the Marlins acquire another player or two (as you already mentioned).

That being said, the Marlins are also 12-0 in one-run games, which is not sustainable. So while the run differential is subject to change, so is the club's record in one-run games, which is a scary thought.

1 hour ago, Michael said:

2007 Diamondbacks: -20 run differential, 90-72 record.

To be fair, this is one example from 16 years ago. The exception doesn't make the rule.

While I certainly don't think run differential is a be-all-end-all statistic, it is typically one of the best indications how good a team actually is over the course of 162 games. Just look at the standings from previous seasons. The teams with the best records almost always also have the best run differentials.

Like I said: over the course of 40 games, it's a mediocre stat at best because the sample size is so small. But once you start really getting into the meat of the season in July and August, it will usually tell you which teams are contenders and which teams aren't.

1 hour ago, Valid said:

past performance is absolutely the best predictor of future results and anyone who tries to deny it is kidding themselves.

Yea for sure, I'm not denying that. The manager was kinda talking about how a guy can be a .200 hitter and never hit a homer or something and then one day they can hit a walkoff homer off the best closer. The future isn't guaranteed by the past, so for what we've discussed today it's just kinda saying that there's no reason the Marlins shouldn't try to make some moves and capitalize on their solid start to this season and maybe it works out. Can't just pack it in based off predictors. 

2 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

So the Marlins should ignore their current decent position in the postseason standings and not bother the rest of the season? 

Why even play the rest of the games if the predictors say there's no chance?

Just step aside and let the other teams jump ahead of us? 

Might as well just forfeit the rest of the season if the run differential is bad at this point right?

Why so salty? I neither said nor implied any such thing.

2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

Yep, one of the reasons it isn't a useful stat.

It isn’t even useful? Lol. So what stat is actually useful then?

The Marlins have had more than a “couple of blowout losses” to get to -54. I think the best argument in their favor is that they are just -22 against everyone besides the Braves.