The Swede

In terms of the rotation, I think we need to get Moehler and Mitre out of there (I don't care that Mitre had one good start). I think we have our 1,3,5 starters set for the next few years in Willis, Olsen, and Vargas. I think that the X-factors for this rotation will be Sanchez and Volstad. We need a power right-handed pitcher to replace either Beckett or Burnett. If Sanchez can come up by the end of the year and has the stuff that "they" say he does, then I think this team can become very good very quickly. Also, if Volstad adds some velocity over the next 2 years, he could be that pitcher. My bigggest disappointment over the fire sale is that we did not trade for enough power arms to replace Beckett. (I don't consider pitching in the low 90s a power pitcher.) Petit, Hernandez, Nolasco, Pinto are finesse pitchers more or less. (Though Nolasco was pitching in the 92-94 range, which is faster than the scouting reports suggested.) The reason I like Dombrowski so much is that he places the highest priority on right-handed power pitcher (see Beckett, Burnett, Penny with Marlins and now Verlander, Bonderman, and Zumaya with Tigers). In response to the comment that Mitre is a poor man's Kevin Brown, I think that is a gross exaggeration. Brown threw in the mid to high 90s and was largely a strikeout pitcher even though he got a ton of ground balls. I think a better comparison is Mitre to Pavano. All in all, the team showed some nice signs from the first series, and I am excited to see some of our young starters pitch in the majors this year.

I think everyone here is being a little too optimistic and congratulating. Let's be fair. The hitting was pathetic. Oswalt looked good but not unhittable. He threw mostly fastballs that we fouled off or took for strike three 7 times. I can only recall one at bat in which a ball was hit somewhat solidly and that was Hermida's single (I did miss the first inning.) Other than that everything was a SO, pop-up to an infielder in foul ground, or a weak ground out. The only two balls I remember being hit into the outfield were Cabrera's routine fly balls. Oswalt is a great pitcher but he did not have dominant stuff today. I am not sure what good at bats people are referring to. We had 4 hits (2 of which were infield singles), very few well hit balls, and a couple walks. Also, Lidge did not look good. He had no command of his pitches tonight. But I will disegard our at-bats against him because it was such a small sample. The defense was bad. The pitching was good, but let's remember that this is a mediocre to below average hitting team in the Astros. Willis looked ok. He was wild and couldn't locate pitches the majority of the time. He had very few swings and misses and his SOs came on pitches way out of the strikezone that I feel batters may have swung at because it is still early in the year. Johnson's stuff looked good, but he had inconsistent command. Martinez looked very good. Just because the team is young is not a reason to hold them to a different standard. This is supposed to be a major league team, though a bad one at that. I think everyone is congratulating this team too much for losing and looking quite pathetic in a number of areas. I don't really care that they are rookies; if they play poorly they should be treated as any other poor performing team. I do see this team losing close to 100 games. There will be many many games this year in which we don't come close to providing adequate run support. Also, remember that tonight was our best team with Willis on the mound. He may not have had his stuff tonight but he fought through five innings. Let's see how everyone feels with the other starters on the mound when we lose 5 or 6 to nothing. I don't expect us to come within 5 runs of the Astros tomorrow with Mitre pitching. I just wish that people on this board wouldn't delude themselves into thinking this is a decent team.

Record 62-98 Rotation: Willis 11-15 4.20 ERA 33 starts Olsen 10-16 4.50 ERA 33 starts Vargas 8-16 4.90 ERA 33 starts Mitre 1-5 6.00 ERA 10 starts Moehler 7-11 4.80 ERA 23 starts Johnson 3-3 5.00 ERA 10 starts Petit 2-5 5.00 ERA 10 starts Nolasco 2-4 4.80 ERA 10 starts Bullpen: Waste of Time Predicting that Lineup: Ramirez .250 6 HR 50 RBI 15 SB Hermida .270 18HR 65 RBI 10 SB Cabrera .285 29HR 90 RBI Jacobs .255 14HR 65 RBI Willingham .250 8HR 55RBI Olivo .230 4HR 35RBI / Aguila .225 3HR 35 RBI Abercombie .220 9HR 50RBI Uggla .220 3HR 45 RBI

...and combine that with the fact that the Marlins chose him over a more skilled (and cheaper) Josh Beckett and you see the issue I have. I am not so sure that the Marlins chose to keep him over Beckett. I bet at least part of it had to do with the Red Sox (and Rangers) wanting Beckett over Willis. We needed to trade one to get rid of Lowell.

Depending upon what we would get, I like the idea of trading Dontrelle. If we could nab an elite pitching prospect (i.e. Verlander, Cain, Billingsly, Liriano, etc.) and a good position prospect, I would do it immediately. I think Willis is very overrated. He is a very good pitcher, but not elite. I don't think he will ever reproduce the season he had last year, especially not on a team as bad and as young as the Marlins. His trade value will never be this high again. The key to successful general management is knowing when to sell high and buy low, even if it means making an unpopular decision.

No suprise, just hopefully it's not too long before Nolasco and Johnson take Moehler and Mitre's spots. Once the season gets going, the order of the rotation means very little because each team is at a different point in their rotation anyway; however, for the first few weeks or so, if means taking some pressure off Vargas by letting him pitch against other teams 4th starters, I think the decision is reasonable.

Well, we know either way he'll hit... Do we?

I don't particularly like this trade for either team. The Reds should never have traded Pena: he's a young and a great raw talent that they can build around. They got rid of Casey, which I thought was a signal that Pena was better than Casey in their eyes. I understand they need pitching, but Arroyo is not going to change anything. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy, and the Reds aren't going anywhere anyway, so I think they should either wait and try and develop a front of the rotation guy or sign one. As for the Red Sox, I don't think Pena is worth much to them right now. He will struggle with strikeouts, inconsistent at-bats, and again complain that he is not an everyday starter. He is not an OBP guy the way Epstein likes and is a raw hitter in general that will struggle against veteran pitchers on the Yanks and Jays and the refined, Leo-Mazzone Orioles pitchers. They can't develop him much because of Manny in left, Ortiz at DH, and for now Nixon in Right. Pena was adamant about not playing first. I think that Pena will be better Nixon in a couple years but not now. As a big market team, they can afford to pick up a more established hitter during the year or in the offseason in a salary dump trade or signing. Also, I think Arroyo has much more value to the Red Sox now than trade value. Yes the Red Sox have seven starters before the trade (Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Wells, Arroyo, and Papelbon), but relying upon 39 year old Schilling, 39 year old Wakefield, and 42 year old Wells to each make 30+ starts is dangerous. Schilling for all everyone knows may be finished as an effective starter. He was hurt most of last year and largely ineffective when he did pitch. Though Wakefield puts less stress on his arm as a knuckleballer, eventually he will decline and 39 is very old. Wells is 42, still overweight, and still has back problems. He cannot be relied upon for 30+ starts. Papelbon is highly touted but he is still a rookie and like all others will have growing pains in his first full year. The Red Sox don't want to and shouldn't have to rely on him down the stretch in the league's best division. Also, Arroyo may be able to stablize a bullpen that has problems. Good starting pitching is what is going to get the Red Sox into the playoffs this year, not hitting. I think exchanging Lowell, Gonzalez, and Loretta for Mueller, Renteria, and Walker will cost the Red Sox a fair amount of runs to the point that they can't count on their offense to score 6 runs or more every game. Come playoff time, I don't think that this trade will hurt the Red Sox much because they will only use 4 starters, but it will hurt in the regular season. I think the Yanks will struggle when their starting pitchers gets hurt/fails and that is where the Sox need to make up games. In my opinion, this puts a question mark on the rotation. Perhaps they think that Pena is the next Ortiz. And perhaps they think that Papelbon and possibly Lester are major league, playoff contending ready this year. But I feel like Red Sox need not develop hitters at this point, and that Arroyo will be a nice, cheap back of the rotation guy when Schilling, Wells, and Wakefield retire. (Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, Clement, and Arroyo seems like a stacked rotation to me).

What news?

I guess I would go back to the Mets.

f***. Pavano: NY Penny: LA AJ: $ Land Beckett: Red Sox Pitching wins championships. When did our FO forget that? All of those guys gone, and what to show for it? Some draft pick Lo Duca, Mota + Encarnacion - Encarnacion out, Mota in the sh*t house and Lo Duca on the way out Some draft pick Prospects. You've gotta be kidding me. Great post. I think you hit it on the head. This is the difference between the Marlins and the A's. The A's kept their young, cheap ace (Harden), replaced the older, less talented ones (Hudson, Mulder) with minor leaguers they built up and what they got in return for trades, and kept one (Zito). The marlins were always vacilating on what they wanted to do, and that came back to really hurt them now and in the long run.

Considering his talent, the free agent market for starting pitchers, performance, and current starting pitcher's salaries, AJ Burnett is absolutely worth 12-15 million. I wish the Marlins could re-sign him, but that is a pipe dream.

Burnett's comments simply mean that there is no chance that he returns next year as a Marlin. (And I can't say I blame him.)

August 5, 2005 - SportsTicker OF Juan Encarnacion was given the night off Friday. "He had some bad swings the other day," manager Jack McKeon said. "His wrist is bothering him. It's time to give him a breather." Encarnacion was available to pinch hit. ... 1B Carlos Delgado missed his ninth straight game Friday with a sore left elbow. Delgado took batting practice Friday and also was available to pinch hit. He is expected to return to the lineup Saturday or Sunday. ... 3B Mike Lowell avoided a strike out in 52 straight plate appearances until Cincinnati LHP Eric Milton struck him out in his first at-bat Friday. Lowell last fanned in the sixth inning against Arizona's Greg Aquino on July 20. The stretch topped his previous career best of 44 plate appearances from July 14-27, 2000. ... OF Miguel Cabrera has 255 RBI since he was promoted from Class AA on June 20, 2003. In that period only St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols has driven in more runs, with 272. from espn.com

I was wondering if anyone else had noticed a changed in Beckett's wind-up this year.? It appears that he is less up-right as he approaches the plate and plants his left foot.? He now has an arch in his back (similar to David Cone) as he delivers.? Perhaps this change was made to put less pressure on the lower back/obliques.? However, it seems that Beckett has lost velocity on his 4-seam fastball and has lost some movement on his 2-seamer/change.? Also, it seems that he hasn't had a sharp breaking ball, but that could be for other reasons. Has anyone else noticed or have a report about it? 889324[/snapback] Swede I was going to post the exact same thing last night. He's developed that little hitch... reminds me of Pavano a little. Not sure if it's serving him well or not yet... delivery doesn't look as smooth as it used to, but we'll have to wait & see. As you said, maybe it's something to ease pressure on his obliques after the injury... 889529[/snapback] I think he has been doing this all year. Perhaps it is a preventative measure. I don't like it because i think it has taken some of the snap/sharp break away from his curveball.

I was wondering if anyone else had noticed a changed in Beckett's wind-up this year. It appears that he is less up-right as he approaches the plate and plants his left foot. He now has an arch in his back (similar to David Cone) as he delivers. Perhaps this change was made to put less pressure on the lower back/obliques. However, it seems that Beckett has lost velocity on his 4-seam fastball and has lost some movement on his 2-seamer/change. Also, it seems that he hasn't had a sharp breaking ball, but that could be for other reasons. Has anyone else noticed or have a report about it?

Simply, I think this trade makes the team worse, and it seems uncharacteristic of Riley. The heat were the best offensive team in the nba last year, and they didn't need more offense. They needed better perimeter defense, rebounding, athleticism, and size at the guard/small forward position. Both Walker and Williams are defensive liabilities. Though Walker does add rebounding, which is important considering that Haslem is undersized, he is slow, unathletic, and struggles to cover quick small forwards. Williams is a poor on-the-ball defender and is a small point guard. The heat need a big point guard who can cover 2-guards who are too tall or possibly too active for wade to cover. Walker, however, is an excellent addition offensively. He is a very versatile offensive player who can be the consistent third scoring option both inside and out that Jones could not consistently be. Williams, in my mind, is the exact opposite of what we need in a point guard. We don't need someone to penetrate and create shots, Wade does that. We need an unselfish, technically sound ball handler, who can run the offense without getting in the way and hit open jump shots. Williams dribbles too much, is not fundamentally sound, too flashy, and a poor perimeter shooter percentage wise. He will try to create too much. This trade ruins team chemistry, which unlike in baseball, does lead to wins. It replaces a key role player in Eddie Jones with two guys who are notorious for being unable to play their role. Offensively, there simply will not be enough shots to go around. I fear that the great team offense we had last year will deteriorate into individual play. We lose balance between playmakers and role players, which is incredibly important. Also, our weakness, team defense especially perimeter defense, now becomes a gaping whole. This is fine against bad to mediocre teams, but against a technically solid, well-coached team (a la the Spurs and Pistons) could become a disaster. I probably hated Eddie Jones more than anyone in South Florida, but with the evolution of team, I fundamentally disagreed with trading him. He was precisely what the Heat needed at the 2-guard (not the 3). He is one of the best on-the-ball defenders. He is quick and athletic, and, except for early last year, is a consistent perimeter shooter. His three point shooting percentage is always near the top of the league. As long as Eddie need not be relied upon as the focal point of the offense, he was able to stretch opposing defenses and catch them off-guard. Most importantly, he was a lock-down defender. Perhaps, we just wanted to dump Jones salary. But we took on 6 years of Walker. There is no way that Walker stays productive when he is 34 and 35, so we will be stuck with an Eddie Jones contract 4 years from now. I would have preferred just doing the Walker part of the deal, which had nothing to do with Eddie Jones. Jones was traded for Williams and Posey. I feel the best team would have been with Walker and Jones. I am surprised that Riley who stresses length, athleticism, traditional fundamentals, and most importantly defense would do this trade. I am particularly surprised by his comment that Williams gives us playmaking at point guard we haven't since Hardaway, considering that the Heat have the best playmaking guard in the league in Wade. I hope that Riley is not trying to change his style because the league is changing. Just because no one in the west, except for the spurs, plays defense, does not mean that heat should follow that trend. I guess in all... I am just shocked and disappointed.

Thanks.

Essentially, I think that the Marlins need to choose over the next 4 days or so whether we want to win now and sacrifice the future or try to prolong our competitiveness as long as possible until we become a solid revenue generating team with a new stadium (if that is even possible). And the deadline deal(s) or the lack thereof need to reflect that decision unwaveringly. Specifically, if the Marlins think that this team is good enough to go to the playoffs and be competitive now, then they need to hold on to Burnett and try to add another piece whether it be a backend bullpen reliever or bat by giving up minor leaguers. This would mortgage the future tremendously: Burnett is unsignable, our rotation would be in trouble next year, and, as is, the position team is not good enough to carry a team (a la the Yankees). Plus, we don't have a replacement for Burnett in the minors. Olsen is good, but not a number 1 or 2. This may seem drastic, but I think the Marlins are good enough with this team to compete, so I don't think it is such a bad decision. The second option is to prolong our competitiveness as long as possible. That means finding a replacement for Burnett for either next year or the year after. The only way to do that is to trade Burnett for top level minor league pitching prospects that can blossom into front of rotation pitchers and remain cheap for a few more years. What the Marlins cannot do is try to trade for current non-core needs. And by this I mean adding a veteran starter now (i.e. Contreras, Arroyo) to try and patch up a rotation for the time being (and possibly next year), a fickle reliever (Marte, Julio) who may not stay or will at a premium, and a midlevel prospect is useless. We won't be competitive enough with that veteran now, and the midlevel prospect is not a replacement for the future. We cannot trade Burnett for spare parts, otherwise we lose both ways. We need to get a potential "core" player in return. Of all the deals I have read about, only a variation of the Red Sox offer and the possible (but highly improbable) Angels offer. Only, Anibel Sanchez or Ervin Santana are the types of players for whom to close a deal. These two potentially are replacements for Burnett, and they would be core players. Arroyo in that offer in my mind is meaningless. He is another 4th or 5th starter. A nice throw-in, but the deal is about Sanchez. (I would prefer to get another prospect instead of Arroyo.) (Personally, I think that McCarthey has fallen somewhat as a prospect and is not a front of the rotation guy. He is closer to a 3.) We need to do something similar to what the A's did. If you choose the future, then trade for close to major league ready top pitching prospects. However, we are in a much better position than the As. We have relatively cheap position talent, and we have 2 good young starters in Beckett and Willis already. We don't need to trade for outfielders or start anew in the rotation. What could be disastrous is if the Marlins try to ride the middle, which is what their public comments have suggested. Trade for a cheap 4th starter for the next couple years and a reliever and a midlevel prospect. That would set us back a few years. We don't cut payroll, we can't win now, and we don't get a potential replacement for the future. As much as I hated the Penny deal last, the FO's heart was in the right place (even if its head wasn't). They faced a similar decision, and they chose to win now. They could have traded our best starter in Pavano for top minor league talent. Instead, they chose to trade Penny for what they thought would put them over the top. I disagreed about what the impact of the personel change would be, but not the strategy. I just hope that the 2005 Beinfest makes a firm decision one way or the other, just like the 2004 Beinfest.

Thanks.

I sincerely doubt that Livan will miss a single start. He's probably upset with something and he got a little too emotionl. He will be calmed down by his next start. Take those comments with a grain of salt.

I don't understand why people on this board think that Zito is available. The A's are back in the thick of race now, and their team is looking great. Beane has said all along that Zito is not available. Zito has seemed to regain his form from a few years ago. His ERA is down to ~3.5, his SO are up, and his velocity is up. Plus, the As control him for a very reasonable 7.5 mill next year. Besides if Zito were to be traded he would net a better deal than Burnett.

Wade Miller might be an option as well, the Red Sox were public in saying he wasn't the answer they were looking for(meaning hes not what they thought he would be when they signed him) and he could very easily have a damn good year next year at the pitcher friendly Pro. 867794[/snapback] If they included Wade Miller, I would trade Burnett in a heartbeat. Even though he has lost a little on his fastball, he has really good stuff and a quality pitcher. I don't know how realistic it is that they would include him, but I can figure this: when Schilling goes back into the rotation either Arroyo or Miller will get dropped out. If they get Burnett and Schilling then both would be dropped, so they may be willing to part with him.

man the only time i will get nervous is when they officially report it, think people! beinfest will not get ripped off, if for some reason we do this trade we have a back up plan, another trade. 866580[/snapback] Well to be fair, Beinfest did get ripped off last year in trading a young top to mid of the rotation starter for "spare parts."

With all the trade talk, I was wondering if anyone who has a subscription to Baseball America can post the latest top 20 or 100 prospect list. Also, if you can find their scouting report on Penn, McCarthy, Anderson, Sweeney. Thanks.