Posted December 17, 200816 yr http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/267349.html TOP TEN PROSPECTS 1. Cameron Maybin, of 2. Mike Stanton, of 3. Logan Morrison, 1b 4. Sean West, lhp 5. Ryan Tucker, rhp 6. Matt Dominguez, 3b 7. Kyle Skipworth, c 8. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b 9. Chris Coghlan, 2b 10. Jose Ceda, rhp BEST TOOLS Best Hitter for Average Logan Morrison Best Power Hitter Mike Stanton Best Strike-Zone Discipline Chris Coghlan Fastest Baserunner John Raynor Best Athlete Mike Stanton Best Fastball Jose Ceda Best Curveball Brad Hand Best Slider Sean West Best Changeup Aaron Thompson Best Control Graham Taylor Best Defensive Catcher Brett Hayes Best Defensive Infielder Matt Dominguez Best Infield Arm Matt Dominguez Best Defensive Outfielder Cameron Maybin Best Outfield Arm Brett Carroll (There are detailed scouting reports provided as well, but you have to be a member. Someone can post those hopefully.)* * MOD NOTE: Can't -- board rules. (edit: oh, sorry about that, didn't realize)
December 17, 200816 yr You left out the best part the projected line-up for 2012, follow the link c-Skipworth 1b-Sanchez 2b-Uggla ss-Ramirez 3b-Dominguez lf-Morrison cf-Maybin rf-Stanton rotation Johnson Nolasco Volstad Miller West closer Tucker I know they base these on future projections, but does anyone truly believe that Uggla will still be a Marlin in 2012, especially since Coghlan is in the Fish top 10 prospects
December 17, 200816 yr not unless he stays for pennies. and I wet my pants thinking about that 2012 lineup.
December 17, 200816 yr not unless he stays for pennies. and I wet my pants thinking about that 2012 lineup. I'm with you on that one, and don't forget the rotation. :thumbup
December 17, 200816 yr Author not unless he stays for pennies. and I wet my pants thinking about that 2012 lineup. I'm with you on that one, and don't forget the rotation. :thumbup Well, by then Nolasco and JJ will prob be gone, as they'd hit Free Agency. Would prob be: Volstad, Miller, Sanchez, West?, DeLaCruz? (Trading JJ/Nolasco/Uggla/Cantu, etc. would have to bring back a candidate or two for this rotation)
December 18, 200816 yr not unless he stays for pennies. and I wet my pants thinking about that 2012 lineup. I'm with you on that one, and don't forget the rotation. :thumbup I personally would prefer if Logan can stay at 1B and one of Cousins/Petersen/Raynor/Galloway (probably the first 2) becomes a better player to have in the lineup than Gaby, because I think the first two have more upside. And yeah, Uggla will definitely not be here. By 2012, we'll be in the new stadium, so hanging onto our starters may be more feasible. That said, DLC probably doesn't have enough of a repertoire to be a starter, and if we're staying in the organization and assuming none of our lower-level SP prospects develop, then Aaron Thompson is more likely to make the rotation. I'm stunned that Dominguez is so low - I think he's ahead of both Tucker and West. However, if those 2 are really better than Dominguez (and Dominguez is an absolute defensive stud with a high-ceiling bat and a good work ethic and high baseball I.Q.), then that is tremendous. I also love how Jose Ceda was #3 in Chicago, had a tremendous year last year when used as an RP, and is still only #10 in our organization. Just shows you how deep we are. Personally, I'd put him ahead of Coghlan and Gaby easily, as they project to average to slightly above average starters at best, while Ceda has an extremely high ceiling. I don't even really think you can say that he's too far behind Tucker, in fact. I would love to see those scouting reports.
December 18, 200816 yr I'd put Ceda ahead of tucker when it comes to RP and the only possible explanation to have Tucker that high is that BP is still viewing him as a starter.
December 18, 200816 yr 1. Cameron Maybin, of Born: April 4, 1987 B-T: R - R Ht: 6-4 Wt: 205 Drafted: HSAsheville, N.C., 2005 (1st round). Signed by: Bill Buck (Tigers). Background: Once considered untouchable and the jewel of the Tigers system, Maybin was pried away in December 2007 as part of an eight-player blockbuster that cost the Marlins franchise stalwarts Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Lefty Andrew Miller also came south along with four lesser prospects, and though Miller broke camp with Florida last season, it's Maybin who will determine the eventual success or failure of the deal. The 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft, he signed for $2.65 million. Widely considered among the best athletes in that draft, the main reason for his modest slide was a perception that his bat would need more time to develop. He shot holes in that theory by reaching the majors at age 20 in 2007, his second pro season. His first two big league hits came off Roger Clemens, a single and homer, but overall he struggled at the plate in a brief cameo with the contending Tigers. Nagging injuries have slowed his progress the past two seasons. In 2007, he partially dislocated his right shoulder and strained his left shoulder. In 2008, he missed three weeks in July with a pulled ribcage muscle and a few days in August with a staph infection. He still managed to bounce back in time to lead Double-A Carolina within one win of a Southern League championship before dazzling onlookers during an eight-game audition with the Marlins in late September. He ranked as the top position prospect in the SL. Strengths: Maybin has five-tool ability. His quick hands give him lightning bat speed, which combined with his raw strength should allow him to hit for plus power as he fills out and makes more consistent contact. He also has the plus-plus speed to beat out infield hits and steal bases. While his plate discipline still has a ways to go, it has improved notably and he does draw walks. Defensively, he has tremendous closing speed and strong instincts that enable him to read the ball off the bat and make highlight-reel plays in center field. He also brandishes a strong throwing arm that evokes memories of a young Andre Dawson, now a Marlins special assistant. It was Mr. Marlin, Jeff Conine, who compared Maybin to a young Devon White during a late-season broadcasting cameo. Maybin also draws praise for his makeup. Weaknesses: Strikeouts remain the biggest concern for Maybin, who was fanned in 31 percent of his at-bats as a pro. He's still learning to recognize the spin on offspeed pitches and to lay off fastballs up in the zone. He has a late hitch in his swing that counteracts some of his bat speed. He batted leadoff after his callup and delivered four-hit games in his first two starts, but he fits better a bit lower in the lineup at this stage of his career. Maybin could be a more aggressive and effective basestealer, and Florida believes he'll become a major threat once he learns how to read pitchers and lengthen his leads. He has an awkward running style in which he swings his arms out from his sides and sometimes loses ground as he rounds a base. The Future: After giving the Marlins a tantalizing taste of his abilities last September, Maybin will get every opportunity to seize the center-field job for good come spring training. Only a disastrous showing would send him back to the minors for more seasoning. He should develop into the best all-around center fielder in Florida's brief history. 2. Mike Stanton, of Born: Nov. 8, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-5 Wt: 205 Drafted: HSSherman Oaks, Calif., 2007 (2nd round). Signed by: Tim McDonnell. Background: Southern California offered Stanton a baseball scholarship and a walk-on opportunity as a receiver/defensive back at Southern California, while Nevada-Las Vegas wanted him to play football and walk-on in baseball. Instead, the Marlins stole him in the second round of the 2007 draft for $475,000. In his first full pro season, he ranked second in the minors in homers (39) and total bases (286) and fourth in slugging (.611). Strengths: While low Class A Greensboro's NewBridge Bank Park is a bandbox, Stanton's homers weren't flukes. He hit 18 on the road and showed regular light-tower power, prompting comparisons to a young Dave Winfield. He has plus speed and runs out every ball, never letting opponents or the score get him off his game. He has a solid-average arm and played well in both center and right field in 2008. Weaknesses: Stanton's strikeout totals remain high, but Florida insists he has no problem with pitch recognition. He has yet to develop basestealing instincts. He worked with Greensboro pitching coach John Duffy to improve his throwing mechanics and get more out of his arm strength. The Future: Even when he could have helped them acquire Manny Ramirez for the stretch drive, the Marlins deemed Stanton strictly off limits. They're already daydreaming about an outfield that includes Cameron Maybin in center and Stanton in right, but the latter probably won't arrive until 2010 at the soonest. 3. Logan Morrison, 1b Born: Aug. 25, 1987 B-T: L-L Ht: 6-2 Wt: 215 Drafted: Maple Woods (Mo.) CC, D/F 2005 (22nd round). Signed by: Mark Willoughby/Ryan Wardinsky. Background: Morrison turned down $95,000 as a 22nd-round pick out of high school so he could attend Maple Woods (Mo.) CC, the same school that produced Albert Pujols. While there, he grew two inches and added 20 pounds of muscle, prompting the Marlins to sign him for $225,000 as a draft-and-follow. He exploded last season to claim MVP honors in the high Class A Florida State League, which he led in batting (.332), hits (162), doubles (38) and on-base percentage (.402). Strengths: Morrison has a flat swing that stays in the zone for an exceptionally long time. He has plus power and blasted several memorable shots last season, but he does a nice job of ignoring that temptation and working the gaps. His plate discipline keeps improving and he refrains from chasing pitches out of the zone. He projects as a .300 hitter with 30-homer potential. He keeps getting better defensively, too, flashing a strong arm and a willingness to nail lead runners. Weaknesses: Morrison's range at first base is still fairly limited. He's a below-average runner, though not bad once he gets going. Offensively, however, there's not much not to like. The Future: After batting .404/.444/.667 in the Arizona Fall League, Morrison will head to Florida's new Double-A Jacksonville affiliate. He could get to the majors at some point in 2009 and battle Gaby Sanchez for a starting job. The Marlins also could move Morrison to left field after he showed decent aptitude there in the AFL. 4. Sean West, lhp Born: June 15, 1986 B-T: L-L Ht: 6-8 Wt: 200 Drafted: HSShreveport, La., 2005 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Ryan Fox. Background: Signed for $775,000 out of high school, West continues to tantalize with what might be the highest ceiling of the five pitchers the Marlins drafted before the second round in 2005. He missed the entire 2007 season following surgery to repair a torn labrum, and he pitched only three times in the first two months last season because of blisters. He got better each month afterward and then greatly impressed scouts in the Arizona Fall League. Strengths: His big frame and three-quarters arm slot have earned him comparisons to a young Randy Johnson. West owns a big fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96. He features two different sliders, one tighter than the other, and his changeup has shown potential. He continues to mature on and off the mound, battling through outings when he lacks his best stuff. Weaknesses: Not surprisingly for such a big man, West struggles at times with his delivery. He tends to shorten his stride, which causes his front side to become too stiff and leaves his arm to drag behind his body, negatively affecting his control. He needs to trust his changeup more. The Future: West has yet to pitch above Class A, but his strong work in Arizona has put him on the fast track to the majors. The Marlins will continue to be very careful with him, properly viewing him as a future rotation topper. He figures to open the year at Double-A Jacksonville, but a call to the majors isn't far away. 5. Ryan Tucker, rhp Born: Dec. 6, 1986 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-2 Wt: 190 Drafted: HSTemple City, Calif., 2005 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: John Cole. Background: A 2005 compensation pick for the loss of former closer Armando Benitez, Tucker signed for $975,000 and reached the majors midway through his third full pro season. However, he was back in Double-A three weeks later after taking his lumps. Strengths: Blessed with an overpowering fastball that continues to rank among the best in the system, Tucker pitches at 92-95 mph and touches 97. When his slider is on, it's tight and features late break. He continued to use his changeup even after successfully lobbying for a bullpen assignment upon his return to Carolina. His mound presence is a plus and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria raves about his bulldog mentality. Weaknesses: Tucker has a tendency to rely too heavily on his fastball, a failing big leaguers readily exploited. His slider command is inconsistent, causing him to lose confidence with the pitch. Previous attempts at mastering a curveball and cutter were scrapped. He can be hard on himself, growing too emotional when things go against him. He drew a 2007 suspension for twice having words with high Class A Jupiter pitching coach Reid Cornelius, but there have been no further problems. The Future: With the big league rotation seemingly overbooked, Tucker is wisely angling for a future in short relief. If he doesn't make the Florida bullpen out of spring training, he'll likely head to the club's new Triple-A New Orleans affiliate and return to starting. 6. Matt Dominguez, 3b Born: Aug. 28, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-2 Wt: 180 Drafted: HSChatsworth, Calif., 2007 (1st round). Signed by: Tim McDonnell. Background: Despite his all-around excellence, Dominguez is used to being overshadowed. He shared the left side of the Chatsworth (Calif.) High infield with Mike Moustakas, who went second overall in the 2007 draft10 picks ahead of Dominguez. He had a lackluster pro debut after signing for $1.8 million but recovered nicely in 2008 at Greensboro, though Mike Stanton generated more headlines. Strengths: Dominguez's defense is the first thing everyone notices. He has exceptionally smooth hands and actions in the field, along with a strong arm and quick release that have drawn comparisons to Mike Lowell's. Dominguez could play third base in the big leagues right now. His bat really came around last season, as he showed a quicker bat and more fluid swing than he had in his debut. Weaknesses: Adding strength remains a must, especially after a bout with mononucleosis cost Dominguez the first six weeks of last season and caused him to drop 15 pounds. He has a tendency to lunge at times at the plate and can get tied up with hard stuff on the inner half. He's a below-average runner whose quickness and range have been called into question. The Future: Next season will be key for Dominguez as he makes the transition from hitter-friendly Greensboro to the larger parks of the Florida State League. He remains the top third baseman in the system and should reach the majors in 2011. 7. Kyle Skipworth, c Born: March 1, 1990 B-T: L-R Ht: 6-3 Wt: 195 Drafted: HSRubidoux, Calif., 2008 (1st round). Signed by: Robby Corsaro. Background: Skipworth didn't become a full-time catcher until he was a junior in high school, after the incumbent catcher (the head coach's brother) graduated. As a senior, he drew comparisons to Joe Mauer, the only other prep catcher taken in the top 10 picks in the past 13 drafts, and set a California state record with hits in 18 consecutive plate appearances. Drafted sixth overall, Skipworth signed quickly for $2.3 million. Strengths: Though he struggled in his pro debut, the Mauer comparisons extend to his hitting. Skipworth has the bat speed and strength to hit for average and power as he matures. A first-rate receiver with excellent hands and footwork, he required little tweaking from roving catching instructor Tim Cossins. He quickly took on game-calling responsibilities and showed a knack for handling pitchers. He has a strong, accurate throwing arm and a quick release, which helped him led the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League by nailing 36 percent of basestealers. Weaknesses: Skipworth piled up too many strikeouts in the GCL, but he isn't the first high pick to struggle in his first pro summer. He needs to add strength and bulk to his lanky frame. His arm action can get long at times. He never had called pitches until he reached pro ball, so that has been an adjustment. The Future: The Marlins haven't had a catcher this promising since Charles Johnson in the early 1990s. Skipworth will start 2009 in low Class A, and his bat will dictate how fast he climbs. 8. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b Born: Sept. 2, 1983 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-2 Wt: 225 Drafted: Miami, 2005 (4th round). Signed by: John Martin. Background: Suspended under a cloud of mystery his entire junior year at Miami, Sanchez was a fourth-round steal for the Marlins. He signed $250,000, largely on the recommendation of East Coast scouting supervisor Mike Cadahia, who had known him for years. Sanchez won the short-season New York-Penn League batting title at .355 in his pro debut and the Southern League MVP award last summer. Strengths: His plate discipline ranks right with Chris Coghlan's as the best in the system. Sanchez makes excellent adjustments from pitch to pitch and has learned to use the whole field. He shows outstanding gap power and could hit almost anywhere in the lineup besides leadoff. After trying catcher and third base, he has worked hard to become a plus defender at first base, with managers rating him the best in the SL. Weaknesses: Big-time power isn't in Sanchez's toolbox, as his 17 homers last season were a career high. He tends to dive for balls and can struggle against top pitching, with some scouts questioning his bat speed. He'll have to keep a close watch on his conditioning. He has below-average speed, though his lateral quickness has improved. The Future: Having reached the majors for a brief look last September, Sanchez heads to spring training with an excellent shot at winning the starting first-base job. The Marlins dealt incumbent Mike Jacobs to the Royals in a salary-related move, but they also did so knowing Sanchez was ready to break through. 9. Chris Coghlan, 2b Born: June 18, 1985 B-T: L-R Ht: 6-1 Wt: 195 Drafted: HSMississippi, 2006 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Mark Willoughby. Background: Winning the Cape Cod League batting title put Coghlan on the map the summer before his draft year in 2006. Selected 36th overall and signed for $950,000, he represented the Marlins at the Futures Game in his first full season and was MVP of the Southern League all-star game in 2008. Strengths: Coghlan has an innate ability to put the barrel of the bat on the ball. He also shows strong plate discipline, and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria proudly calls him a professional hitter. A solid-average runner, Coghlan has made himself into a legitimate basestealing threat by studying pitchers. Predominantly a third baseman in college, he has made himself into a solid second baseman. His baseball smarts and work ethic bode well for him. Weaknesses: Coghlan's hands aren't the softest, and he remains a work in progress around the bag at second. He probably won't hit for much power, though he does tend to find the gaps. The Future: It was a surprise when the Marlins acquired slick-fielding second baseman Emilio Bonifacio from the Nationals in November. Coghlan is a superior hitter and could bounce back to third base if needed, but his fast track to the majors as Dan Uggla's eventual replacement has gained a potential roadblock. 10. Jose Ceda, rhp Born: Jan 28, 1987 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-4 Wt: 275 Signed: Dominican Republic, 2004. Signed by: Felix Francisco/Randy Smith (Padres). Background: It's rare for a young power arm like Ceda to get traded twice in two years, but that was the case when the Marlins somehow acquired him for Kevin Gregg in November. Chicago had stolen him from the Padres in a mid-2006 deal for Todd Walker. Strengths: His hulking frame and power repertoire have earned him comparisons to Lee Smith and Armando Benitez. Ceda's fastball sits at 95-97 mph and touches 100, and he also flashes a hard slider that can be overpowering. He moved to the bullpen for good in June, and he has a 2.12 ERA, .149 opponent average and 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings in that role over the last two years. Weaknesses: Ceda's command and control are inconsistent because he doesn't always repeat his delivery well. Escogido dropped him in the Dominican League this winter after he walked two batters and threw a wild pitch without recording an out in his lone outing. His changeup was a weak third pitch, though he doesn't need it now as a reliever. Durability has been an issue, though more when he was a starter. He missed two months with a stiff shoulder in 2007. His weight remains a concern and likely always will for such a large man. The Future: He'll get every opportunity to break camp with the Marlins in 2009. He likely would start out by setting up young closer Matt Lindstrom, but some believe it's only a matter of time before the job is Ceda's.
December 18, 200816 yr Personally, I think it's the right 10 players but the order is wrong. Tucker and Ceda should probably be 9-10 as you can't put players projected as average or better position players behind them, or a SP like West. Maybin Stanton Morrison Dominguez West Skipworth Coghlan G. Sanchez Ceda Tucker Next 10 is probably this group of players. Thompson Hand Cruz Galloway Cousins Raynor Leroux Sinkbiel Petersen Smolinski
December 18, 200816 yr Personally, I think it's the right 10 players but the order is wrong. Tucker and Ceda should probably be 9-10 as you can't put players projected as average or better position players behind them, or a SP like West. Maybin Stanton Morrison Dominguez West Skipworth Coghlan G. Sanchez Ceda Tucker Next 10 is probably this group of players. Thompson Hand Cruz Galloway Cousins Raynor Leroux Sinkbiel Petersen Smolinski Just out of curiosity, where would or do you rank Rick Vanden Hurk?
December 18, 200816 yr Just out of curiosity, where would or do you rank Rick Vanden Hurk? He is not a prospect because of his service time, but I'd imagine somewhere 13-18 if he qualified. Gotta love his arm.
December 20, 200816 yr I am not a big fan of Coughlin, and I doubt that will change, but I am excited at the possiblities of this team: C: Skipworth 1B: Morrison 2B: Uggla 3B: Dominguez SS: Ramirez LF: Hermida CF: Maybin RF: Stanton SP: Nolasco SP: Johnson SP: Miller SP: Volstad SP: West With Tucker, and Ceda being hot-stuff bullpen guys
December 20, 200816 yr I am not a big fan of Coughlin, and I doubt that will change, but I am excited at the possiblities of this team: C: Skipworth 1B: Morrison 2B: Uggla 3B: Dominguez SS: Ramirez LF: Hermida CF: Maybin RF: Stanton SP: Nolasco SP: Johnson SP: Miller SP: Volstad SP: West With Tucker, and Ceda being hot-stuff bullpen guys We don't have the money for that. At least six of Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, McPherson, Amezaga, Nolasco, Johnson, and Anibal, have to go, and the year after that whichever 2-3 of those guys are left, along with Lindstrom and Nunez, three more of them are going to have to go. Basically, the Marlins can keep two of JJ, Nolasco, and Anibal long term. Starters come first even if Hermida pans out, or Uggla keeps it up. After that, we should be 'ok' at payroll until the stadium allows us to increase to the $60-70 range (basically when Maybin, Volstad, G. Sanchez, Tucker, Baker, Bonifacio, etc start hitting arbitration). I see it more like this in a best case scenario, using all players the Marlins currently have. C - Skipworth (Baker) 1B - G. Sanchez (Morrison, Stanton) 2B - Coghlan (Bonifacio, Smolinksi) SS - Hanley (Bonifacio, Smolinski) 3B - Dominguez (Coghlan, Bonifacio) LF - Morrison (Raynor, Cousins) CF - Maybin (Cousins, Bonifacio) RF - Stanton (Cousins, Raynor) B - Raynor, Cousins, Bonifacio, Smolinski, Baker SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Miller, Volstad, West RP - Tucker, Ceda, Cruz, Leroux, Thompson, Vanden Hurk/Sinkbiel/Wood, Hand/Olmos Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, McPhrerson, Amezaga, Anibal, Lindstrom, and Nunez traded to replace the entire farm system or upgrade any of the players above.
December 20, 200816 yr We don't have the money for that. At least six of Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, McPherson, Amezaga, Nolasco, Johnson, and Anibal, have to go, and the year after that whichever 2-3 of those guys are left, along with Lindstrom and Nunez, three more of them are going to have to go. Stadium will = put up or shut up. And I bolded 5 of your 6 of them for you since they weren't on the team I was talking about anyhow. And the payroll on that team would not be out of bounds. Sub-$60m, which is someplace Loria has already been, and will go back to once there is some more revenue.
December 20, 200816 yr We don't have the money for that. At least six of Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, McPherson, Amezaga, Nolasco, Johnson, and Anibal, have to go, and the year after that whichever 2-3 of those guys are left, along with Lindstrom and Nunez, three more of them are going to have to go. Stadium will = put up or shut up. And I bolded 5 of your 6 of them for you since they weren't on the team I was talking about anyhow. And the payroll on that team would not be out of bounds. Sub-$60m, which is someplace Loria has already been, and will go back to once there is some more revenue. Why do you always do this? I'll lay it out for you better this time. You're conveniently taking the lowest payroll options and missing the point. PROJECTED 2010 SALARY C John Baker $410,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $410,000 2B Dan Uggla $8,000,000 3B Young 3B Need to Acquire $400,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000 CF Cameron Maybin $410,000 RF Cousins/Raynor $400,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000 B Cousins/Raynor $400,000 B Young Catcher $400,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Chris Coghlan $400,000 SP Josh Johnson $4,000,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $420,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,500,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $2,500,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,000,000 RP Jose Ceda $410,000 RP Ryan Tucker $410,000 RP Eulogio De La Cruz $420,000 RP Meyer/Kroenke/Thompson $420,000 RP 2nd lefty need to acquire $400,000 $43,570,000, with randomly assigning CC to 3B, backup catcher, and back end of the bullpen. And I'm over estimating Johnson and Hermida, under estimating Uggla and Nolasco, to try and be kind of fair as those are the four "big" arbitration cases post 2010. If Nolasco doesn't have a set back, which this is, he could get to $ 5-6 quick. If Uggla repeats 2008, he's over $10, etc. We've already gotten rid of Cantu, Ross, Amezaga, and McPherson and are well over $40 million (if that is the magic number). What do we know about the Marlins? We preserve pitching, and all of this pitching is more projectionable than Olsen where we probably won't trade it as we can leave West, Leroux, Winters, etc all in AAA for 1 more year compared to excellent MLB options. Where can we save money? We have 9 CC position players, Hanley, and Helms. This leaves two players: Uggla and Hermida. We have Coghlan/Bonifacio, and we have Morrison/Raynor/Cousins, all done with AAA at that point. Maybe one stays for 2010 and payroll goes to the $36-38 range, but that's about it. Take your pick for either. PROJECTED 2011 PAYROLL C John Baker $420,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $420,000 2B Chris Coghlan $420,000 3B Young 3B Need to Acquire $420,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $11,000,000 LF Logan Morrison $420,000 CF Cameron Maybin $420,000 RF Cousins/Raynor $420,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $420,000 B Cousins/Raynor $420,000 B Young Catcher $420,000 B Another 1B/3B type $420,000 B Another Middle infielder $420,000 SP Josh Johnson $6,000,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $6,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $420,000 SP Andrew Miller $4,000,000 SP Sean West $410,000 RP Jose Ceda $410,000 RP Ryan Tucker $410,000 RP Chris Leroux $400,000 RP Eulogio De La Cruz $420,000 RP Aaron Thompson $410,000 RP Vanden Hurk/Wood/Winters $410,000 RP Second Lefty $400,000 $35,730,000, and this gets more hypothetical but you get the idea. I am generously giving the Marlins CC options on the bench and starting 3B here. Uggla is going to be well over $10, Hermida would be at least $7-8 if he pans out. You see payroll going over $50 before the stadium? I don't. In addition, Anibal would be around $4, Lindstrom (with saves) is over $4 now, and Nunez is around $1.5. I took them all out just to show how Hanley, JJ, Nolasco, Miller, and the other 21 players on the team club controlled is approaching $36 million Maybe the Marlins keep one of Hermida, Anibal, Lindstrom, or Nunez here and have a $38-42 salary, but that is literally it. Uggla is to pricey. Also, we obviously have a lot of internal replacements already, plus this entire analysis is showing relatively no gains from acquiring young players from other trades which can help areas of the team. We're in good shape - just not on exploding arbitration figures. It sucks, but this is just the reality of the situation. PROJECTED 2012 PAYROLL C Kyle Skipworth $410,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $3,000,000 < - 1st year Arb 2B Chris Coghlan $430,000 3B Matt Dominguez $410,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000 LF Logan Morrison $420,000 CF Cameron Maybin $4,500,000 < - 1st year Arb RF Mike Stanton $410,000 B John Raynor $420,000 B Scott Cousins $420,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $1,250,000 < - 1st year Arb B Jake Smolinski $410,000 B John Baker $1,500,000 < - 1st year Arb SP Josh Johnson $13,000,000 < - 1st year FA SP Ricky Nolasco $13,000,000 < - 1st year FA SP Chris Volstad $3,000,000 < - 1st year Arb SP Andrew Miller $7,000,000 < - 3rd year Arb SP Sean West $420,000 RP Jose Ceda $410,000 RP Ryan Tucker $1,250,000 < - 1st year Arb RP Chris Leroux $420,000 RP Eulogio De La Cruz $1,000,000 < - 1st year Arb RP Aaron Thompson $430,000 RP Wood/Winteers/Dean/Whatever $410,000 RP Olmos/Hand $410,000 $69,330,000 This is sheer guesstimation at all of these players panning out perfectly, and guessing on general inflation, but it is merely meant to show the general idea of how much this team is going to cost. I don't want to get into random crap like removing a few guys here and there off the team to figure out how to fit in $10+ million Uggla and Hermida through hypothetical trades and acquisitions through the years, but it's just heavily heavily unlikely this team pays them longterm when we have to pay Hanley and the starting rotation (both way more important), and that we have alternatives. Also, Uggla is going to be coming out of his prime now and it would be a bad idea to sign him in free agency, which is what 2012 is. Simply put, we have moderate arbitration issues with the 2010 and 2011 teams and we have to shed the all the arbitration eligible players that are not Hanley or a SP (and even then, we have to shed at least Anibal, and maybe one of JJ/Nolasco if a great SP prospect is brought back in trade), and then bank on the success of our farm system to fill in the holes. I'm pretty damn confident in Maybin, Volstad, Morrison, Stanton, Dominguez, West, G. Sanchez, Coghlan, Baker, Tucker, Ceda, Thompson, Raynor, Cousins, Bonifacio, etc, etc to turn into MLB players where this won't be that big of a deal. What's icing on the cake is Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, Amezaga, Anibal, Lindstrom, Nunez, and maybe another SP or something, are going to bring in heaps of talent to challenge what we already have and provide further depth. Add in stadium revenue to keep the 2012 team together, and the Marlins are going to be a force.
December 20, 200816 yr Why do you always do this? I'll lay it out for you better this time. You're conveniently taking the lowest payroll options and missing the point. I don't know how I 'always' do something, but anyhow. You are ending a year later than I am, the team will need to show a commitment to winning before the new park opens or nobody will come to it, and Loria knows this. MLB revenue sharing will be such in 2011, that the team will be able to put out a $50m+ product. So you are a year later in your projections than I was even thinking about, and are discounting the possibility of any arbritration+ buyout contract for any of the young guys. You even include players I doubt will stick with the organization past this season. We may not see Skipworth by 2011, but the rest of those guys are going to get their shot by then.
December 20, 200816 yr Why do you always do this? I'll lay it out for you better this time. You're conveniently taking the lowest payroll options and missing the point. I don't know how I 'always' do something, but anyhow. You are ending a year later than I am, the team will need to show a commitment to winning before the new park opens or nobody will come to it, and Loria knows this. MLB revenue sharing will be such in 2011, that the team will be able to put out a $50m+ product. So you are a year later in your projections than I was even thinking about, and are discounting the possibility of any arbritration+ buyout contract for any of the young guys. You even include players I doubt will stick with the organization past this season. We may not see Skipworth by 2011, but the rest of those guys are going to get their shot by then. You are putting way to much faith into Loria to field $50 million teams 2010 and 2011 to keep this team completely together. Buyouts also wouldn't have an effect until 2012.
December 20, 200816 yr You are putting way to much faith into Loria to field $50 million teams 2010 and 2011 to keep this team completely together. Buyouts also wouldn't have an effect until 2012. I think we may have a difference of opinion on the term 'completely together', I am talking about Uggla and 4 of the pitchers (and maybe Hermida if he shapes up)
December 21, 200816 yr I don't like the order of the list. I LOL'ed @ following Lou's epic post with this :cool (Not that that's your problem, just funny)
December 21, 200816 yr You are putting way to much faith into Loria to field $50 million teams 2010 and 2011 to keep this team completely together. Buyouts also wouldn't have an effect until 2012. I think we may have a difference of opinion on the term 'completely together', I am talking about Uggla and 4 of the pitchers (and maybe Hermida if he shapes up) I'm following you exactly. I'm saying there isn't money for one of them, let alone both unless we start jettisoning pitchers, like Anibal and Johnson/Nolasco. All of what was posted is assuming a $40 million salary. You can keep Uggla if you project over $46-47 million for 2010 and 2011. Which really, if West is big time we still have 4 starters, and if someone from Thompson/Sinkbiel/Trahern pan out, or the team acquires a SP with trading Anibal or Johnson/Nolasco themselves, or Ross/Cantu, then I can see Uggla or Hermida maybe staying around because we won't be paying that much to the staff, but it's still doubtful. Have to defer to keeping all of the pitching, and Coghlan/Bonifacio and a slew OF are going to bump them off the team.
December 21, 200816 yr I don't like the order of the list. I LOL'ed @ following Lou's epic post with this :cool (Not that that's your problem, just funny) :lol For what it's worth, my list would be... 1. Maybin 2. Morrison 3. Stanton 4. Dominguez 5. West 6. Skipworth 7. Ceda 8. G.Sanchez 9. Tucker 10. Coghlan
December 21, 200816 yr I don't like the order of the list. I LOL'ed @ following Lou's epic post with this :cool (Not that that's your problem, just funny) :lol For what it's worth, my list would be... 1. Maybin 2. Morrison 3. Stanton 4. Dominguez 5. West 6. Skipworth 7. Ceda 8. G.Sanchez 9. Tucker 10. Coghlan I like that list, although I'm tempted to put Stanton #2, although Morrison is closer to the ML and still a monster prospect, so I can live with him at #2.
January 14, 200916 yr FTR, Mike Berardino wrote the Top 10 list (as well as a short rundown of the team's current makeup). http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/267349.html I would've been curious to hear someone else's take, but I guess it'd be hard for someone who doesn't regularly follow the team to do a good job? Does anyone know if Berardino also wrote the analyses? Here's something I found interesting that I got to through ESPN's MLB section: By Jim Callis January 12, 2009 E-mail Print While the Hall of Fame interests me, I can't get too worked up about it. Rickey Henderson obviously belongs. I'm not sure I would have voted for Jim Rice, but he doesn't ruin Cooperstown. I would have voted for Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines, who didn't get in, but that won't keep me up at nights. As upset as some people get about the inclusions and exclusions, baseball still has the most meaningful Hall of Fame of any of the major sports. I've been getting a lot of questions about the 2009 Prospect Handbook, which is expected to ship next week. If you haven't ordered one yet, here's an incentive to do so directly from us. Everyone who buys the book from Baseball America will get a bonus insert with detailed scouting reports on each team's No. 31 prospect, to accompany the Top 30s that appear in the book. I enjoyed reading your list of the American League's top 10 prospects in the Dec. 22 Ask BA. Who do you think are the 10 best prospects in the National League? Ernie Monaco Milford, N.J. When I put together my overall Top 50 for the Handbook, the top two choices were easy: Rays lefthander David Price and Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. After that, it got more murky, though I eventually settled on Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez as my No. 3 prospect, making him tops on my NL list. 1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates Spring injury, summer holdout overshadow his devastating hitting ability. 2. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants Showed much more polish than expected in first full season, led minors with 1.46 ERA. 3. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals The best player developed by St. Louis since Albert Pujols is ready for the majors at 22. 4. Buster Posey, c, Giants Has the tools to become the NL's version of Joe Mauer. 5. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Braves Displayed four plus pitches at times while blowing away Arizona Fall League hitters. 6. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins The best hitter in the minors who hasn't received the hype he deserves. 7. Jason Heyward, of, Braves It's still unfathomable how he lasted 14 picks in the 2007 draft. 8. Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies Colorado has done a fine job of developing the once-raw Fowler. 9. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins Strikeouts are still a concern, but there's a lot of Andre Dawson in him. 10. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins Hit 39 homers in first full season after turning down a shot to play two sports at USC. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/267429.html 3 out of the Top 10 NL Prospects. Other teams include the Giants with 2, the Braves with 2, and the Rockies/Cardinals/Pirates each with 1. Very impressive in my mind, especially considering the youngsters we also have in the ML who are performing at a high level already.
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