A little negativity for your All-Star Break reading pleasure.....

 

As Marlins wait to sign Johnson, he's more likely to be gone

 

 

By Juan C. Rodriguez South Florida Sun-Sentinel

 

July 14, 2009

 

From somewhere on that parcel of flattened land in Little Havana, a 10 1/2 -inch high mound will rise. And from that mound in just more than two seasons, someone will throw the first pitch at the Marlins Get your Marlins Tickets now!' new ballpark.

 

No need for manager Fredi Gonzalez to name his 2012 Opening Day starter just yet, but he would receive no complaints from Marlins fans if he gave Josh Johnson the nod forthwith. Tonight, Johnson is in St. Louis, where he is representing the Marlins along with shortstop Hanley Ramirez at the All-Star Game.

 

While the Marlins last season took care of one franchise player, giving Ramirez a six-year, $70 million contract, Johnson is under their control for two more seasons. It's a little premature to assume Johnson will be in Dodger blue or Yankee pinstripes by 2012, but the longer the Marlins wait to sign him, the more realistic the possibility.

 

"As long as health is good it's sort of a perfect storm for JJ," said Matt Sosnick, Johnson's San Francisco-based agent, who also represents Ricky Nolasco. "He's young, he throws hard, he has great stuff. … I understand they're different pitchers, but I consider JJ and Nolasco both No. 1 starters. Nolasco is a year behind, but both those guys are front-of-the-rotation-type guys who are absolute aces if they stay healthy for the rest of their careers."

 

The Marlins have some wiggle room with Nolasco, who won't qualify for free agency until after 2012. Johnson is a priority and fans are clamoring for the Marlins to eliminate any question surrounding his long-term future.

 

Drafted in the fourth round in 2002, Johnson would love to prolong his stay with the only organization he's known.

 

"It would be awesome," said Johnson, 25. "Family is first, so it would definitely be great for my family, but that's what I pay my agent to do, to worry about all that stuff. He's trying to get me to start thinking about it. For me, I go about my business the same way every day and try not to worry about it."

 

The Marlins are mum both on their plan for Johnson and their organizational strategy regarding pitchers and multiyear deals. Team President David Samson has said the Marlins would not sign arbitration-eligible players to multiyear contracts that don't buy out at least one year of free agency.

 

This regime does not have much of a track record signing pitchers long term. In 2004, the team made free agent Carl Pavano a three-year offer after his 18-8 All-Star season here. He ultimately signed a four-year, $39.95 million deal with the Yankees.

 

The Marlins bought out three of Ramirez's free-agent years at an average of $15 million. That's a relative bargain considering what Ramirez would have commanded on the open market.

 

Yet it was worth it for Ramirez because he was still three years away from free agency.

 

Johnson is only two years away. After next season, as an arbitration-eligible player with more than five years of service time, he can compare himself to all pitchers in the game, not just those with the same amount of service time. That should equate to an eight-figure salary in 2011.

 

Thus, unless the Marlins put a reasonable offer on the table, they could soon find themselves having to guarantee five or more years at huge numbers, a la A.J. Burnett (five years, $82.5 million) or worse yet CC Sabathia (seven years, $162 million), to keep Johnson.

 

The same year-to-year approach with Miguel Cabrera led to his salary exploding in arbitration. The Marlins ultimately traded him to the Tigers, who gave him the eight-year, $152.3 million deal the Marlins couldn't afford.

 

"[Johnson's] next two years are what they're going to be in arbitration, but once you get past that the money is pretty mind-boggling for a guy like that," Sosnick said. "However [the Marlins] decide to approach it, I'm totally comfortable with it. It is within their rights to choose their strategy with their arbitration guys."

 

Since 2005, several pitchers in their arbitration years, like Johnson, have signed four-year deals, giving up two free-agent seasons. Some examples: Sabathia ($29.75 million), Johan Santana ($40 million), Ben Sheets ($38.5 million), Tim Hudson ($47 million), Aaron Harang ($36.5 million) and Zack Greinke ($38 million).

 

In the case of Harang and Hudson, their contracts included fifth-year club options. Perhaps the Marlins would consider a fifth-year vesting option.

 

So what's the best cost-effective strategy for the Marlins? Unless Johnson gives them a huge break on the free-agent years, a five-year deal would top $60 million.

 

Sosnick wouldn't discuss what Johnson will or won't consider, but it would behoove them to take a serious look at an offer in the neighborhood of the aforementioned. Johnson would get lifelong security, plus at the end of the deal he'd still be at prime pitching age (30) and able to cash in again.

 

One difference between Johnson and his counterparts mentioned above is he's already had a major arm surgery. Sosnick thinks that helps more than it hurts.

 

"It's a huge positive," he said. "His arm is going to be strong. You're talking about a guy who has very limited soreness after he throws and he's sitting at 96 mph every game. He's already been surgically rebuilt and he came back throwing harder. I think his chance of injury is greatly diminished."

 

Opening Day 2012 remains far off, but in terms of whether Johnson throws that first pitch, it seems right around the corner.

I really don't know what will happen, but I don't want to see JJ traded away next year or the year after. Of course everyone would like to lock him up, but I'm afraid the FO is going to handle JJ the same way they did Miggy. Signing Hanley LT makes me feel better, but I'm just not sure if this will happen. How much would we expect payroll to increase if we lock JJ up?

One difference between Johnson and his counterparts mentioned above is he's already had a major arm surgery. Sosnick thinks that helps more than it hurts.

 

"It's a huge positive," he said. "His arm is going to be strong. You're talking about a guy who has very limited soreness after he throws and he's sitting at 96 mph every game. He's already been surgically rebuilt and he came back throwing harder. I think his chance of injury is greatly diminished."

 

 

Interesting point... It that just total BS or is there something to that? Could it actually help your case in contract negotiations that you've already been through major arm surgery? I mean it has to work against you, doesn't it?

Maybe not. I've never heard of anyone who had TJ surgery having it twice.

 

As opposed to shoulder labrum-tear problems (Sanchez) which can and often do recur. One of our relievers (Nelson, IIRC) of last year married a nurse or radiologist he met while hospitalized for his 3rd go-round on his labrum.

We need to sign him in the fall or so, at the latest, to avoid having his salary exploding in arbitration. It will make more fiscal sense for the Marlins to sign him now.

Lets be realistic here .... there's no possible way we'll be able to sign JJ after 2 years if he keeps his current numbers up. This guy is an absolute stud ... a 15-20 game winner with a sub 3 ERA. The front office will do something in the next 2 years to try and get the most value for JJ as opposed to letting him walk after 2 years.

 

If he signs with Boston, NY, or LA .... he will receive close to a $100 million contract. My guess is about $15 million a year. I'm all for trading him and getting some very reputable prospects in return.

As I say to many, stop reading that rag, the Sun-Sentinel.

 

Also, I think we actually have a pretty good chance of signing him in the offseason.

As I say to many, stop reading that rag, the Sun-Sentinel.

 

Is there a problem with that article?

I think that the team will sign JJ this offseason barring any unavoidable incident.

I think we actually have a pretty good chance of signing him in the offseason

 

I agree and hope we do.

 

A 3-year deal would meet their criteria of locking up at least one free-agent year. A 3-year deal would guarantee that he's around to pitch the opener in the new stadium. A 3-year deal is also the longest duration contract for which they can buy 70% disability coverage, and, given their reluctance to sign pitchers long-term AT ALL, it's rather unlikely that they would go naked on any portion of any contract with any pitcher.

 

If they offer a 3-year deal I would imagine that JJ will take it as it would necessarily be for serious money and he'd be set for life no matter what happens.

 

Just in case anyone can't tell by now, I think that any deal will be for 3 years.

 

:lol

I'm guessing 4 years, but 3 seems more likely.

oh I absolutely think they'll sign him.

The Marlins may ultimately go the way many teams have gone about players like JJ, give him a 4 year deal, buy out two years of his arbitration years.

 

Johan got 4 years $40 million, Sheets 4 years $38.5 million, Ervin Santana got 3 years $30 million, Greinke 4 years $38 million, and so on. Interesting is that some teams have placed a 5th year club option into that sort of rise oriented contract, so it would be interesting to see whether the Marlins put that kind of option in, and if they do whether JJ would accept such a contract.

Maybe not. I've never heard of anyone who had TJ surgery having it twice.

 

As opposed to shoulder labrum-tear problems (Sanchez) which can and often do recur. One of our relievers (Nelson, IIRC) of last year married a nurse or radiologist he met while hospitalized for his 3rd go-round on his labrum.

 

 

 

Spoony had it twice I believe. But you are right, it'd be a freak occurrence.

Lets be realistic here .... there's no possible way we'll be able to sign JJ after 2 years if he keeps his current numbers up. This guy is an absolute stud ... a 15-20 game winner with a sub 3 ERA. The front office will do something in the next 2 years to try and get the most value for JJ as opposed to letting him walk after 2 years.

 

If he signs with Boston, NY, or LA .... he will receive close to a $100 million contract. My guess is about $15 million a year. I'm all for trading him and getting some very reputable prospects in return.

Trade him and lets just keep re-building huh? Wow the knowledge on this board is amazing!

Johnson is going to cost around 5/$60. If he ends the year bananas, maybe creep up to $5/65-70 range. Still a lot of money, but this isn't doom and gloom money. I think that is a very reasonable contract for a player coming of a major arm surgery, a half season, an excellent first full year back, and still two entire years away from free agency. It also slots him above all of the Greinke, Wainwright, Lester, Shields, etc contracts that have been signed recently by players with similar service time and top of the rotation starter potential. And the Marlins have no other player in their organization that is worth a long contract at the moment either. It makes sense for all parties. It's going to happen this offseason.

 

As for Nolasco, you're getting Dave Bush money ($4 millionish) next year in arbitration. Thanks for that stellar first half.

The Marlins may ultimately go the way many teams have gone about players like JJ, give him a 4 year deal, buy out two years of his arbitration years.

 

Johan got 4 years $40 million, Sheets 4 years $38.5 million, Ervin Santana got 3 years $30 million, Greinke 4 years $38 million, and so on. Interesting is that some teams have placed a 5th year club option into that sort of rise oriented contract, so it would be interesting to see whether the Marlins put that kind of option in, and if they do whether JJ would accept such a contract.

 

A lot of those contracts were for different service time years. So they aren't all exactly on point.

 

But Greinke is dead on. Service time, performance. You name it. Greinke is the model. Throw a $1-2.5 million extra on each of the 4 years, and plop $15 million for a 5th year, and done deal. I'm telling you. Johnson will get a 5 year, $60ish deal when all is said and done. Maybe up to $70 if he is absolutely awesome awesome the rest of the year and keeps a sub 3 era, wins 18, etc.

Maybe not. I've never heard of anyone who had TJ surgery having it twice.

 

As opposed to shoulder labrum-tear problems (Sanchez) which can and often do recur. One of our relievers (Nelson, IIRC) of last year married a nurse or radiologist he met while hospitalized for his 3rd go-round on his labrum.

 

 

 

Spoony had it twice I believe. But you are right, it'd be a freak occurrence.

 

That's the name that came to mind when I first read the comment. And I only knew that name because it was with the Marlins. No idea about other players. But it seems to me if the elbow is so much better, then pitching has got to put more wear and tear on the shoulder. Just because you have one surgery dosen't make you immune to other problems. Of course I'm no doctor, so what do I know.

 

I think they break our tradition and sign him LT. 4 years with a club option for the 5th seems to be the best for both sides. And what the heck...If he does get injured long term the insurance company picks up his payroll.

As I say to many, stop reading that rag, the Sun-Sentinel.

 

Is there a problem with that article?

 

 

In ways, yes. Taking what should be a happy time for us fans and turning it into a "shame on the Marlins." Come on. Talking about our Opening Day starter in 2012? This guy have some kind of crystal ball and know that other pitchers we have are not going to live up to expectations or that we won't aquire someone else between now and then?

 

I see this article along the same lines as winning a championship and some reporter in the club house asking "but can they repeat" before the champagne even stops flowing. IOW, enjoy the moment. There will be time for questions later.

Yup, 2003 and 2005 on Spooney. I had forgotten him. Maybe because it didn't work. After being out in '06 and '07, he has apparently not pitched for anything other than Baltimore's Low-A team in '08.

 

If he does get injured long term the insurance company picks up his payroll.

 

The problem is that nobody is writing anything longer than 3-year coverage (at 70% of salary.) So, to get to a 4 or 5 year scenario, Loria will have to stick his neck out on the fattest money years of the contract, Loria being a guy who hates the whole idea of signing pitching long-term.

 

Which is why 3 years seems more likely to me, although longer would be nice.

The Marlins may ultimately go the way many teams have gone about players like JJ, give him a 4 year deal, buy out two years of his arbitration years.

 

Johan got 4 years $40 million, Sheets 4 years $38.5 million, Ervin Santana got 3 years $30 million, Greinke 4 years $38 million, and so on. Interesting is that some teams have placed a 5th year club option into that sort of rise oriented contract, so it would be interesting to see whether the Marlins put that kind of option in, and if they do whether JJ would accept such a contract.

 

 

I agree with you that this will be the most likely scenario.

... I'm all for trading him and getting some very reputable prospects in return.  

 

So what the hell is the point of a baseball team in this town?

 

I hate it when people think like this- yes its realistic i know (and it probably will happen), but as a fan you shouldn't settle with something like this happening to your team year after year. I say sign him- I want to see JJ pitch the 1st game in 2012 in the new ballpark!

Yup, 2003 and 2005 on Spooney. I had forgotten him. Maybe because it didn't work. After being out in '06 and '07, he has apparently not pitched for anything other than Baltimore's Low-A team in '08.

 

If he does get injured long term the insurance company picks up his payroll.

 

The problem is that nobody is writing anything longer than 3-year coverage (at 70% of salary.) So, to get to a 4 or 5 year scenario, Loria will have to stick his neck out on the fattest money years of the contract, Loria being a guy who hates the whole idea of signing pitching long-term.

 

Which is why 3 years seems more likely to me, although longer would be nice.

 

 

First time I had heard this. But that 3 year would be renewable, maybe even yearly? But I don't have any inside info on that stuff, so just guessing. 70% of salary sounds about right. Kinda like workmens comp. Which raises another question. It's a biz and the players are employees. Do they also pay into WC for them? I would imagine they have to for FO personnel and other folks on the payroll. I've never seen any type of breakdown on this type thing. And it's one thing most fans never take into consideration. How much an employee actually costs an employer, minus bonuses and such. For instance, a guy making $15 per hour costs the employer about $20 an hour (rounded off and per hr to make things easier).

 

BTW I'm sticking with the 4 year and 5th year option. Just makes more sense to both sides. And done this off season.

First time I had heard this. But that 3 year would be renewable, maybe even yearly?

 

 

I ran across this 3-year tidbit when I was looking into what disability coverage costs were to evaluate the present value of Hanley's contract on another thread. The details were in a NYT article about A-Rod's 2001 contract. While 5 or more years' coverage used to be available, sometime in '02 or '03 the very few insurers who write this stuff apparently all moved to a 3-year limit.

 

As I understand it, the coverage is written up-front for the entire period with the premiums probably payable in installments, so not "renewable" in the usual sense. I think that the 70% limit is an underwriting restriction designed to somewhat minimize the incentive for fraud by having an underperforming player magically become "disabled," a progressively larger risk as coverage approaches 100%.

 

While teams can no doubt buy another chunk of coverage after the first 3 years have passed, that only works if the guy isn't already injured or hasn't otherwise become uninsurable. Which sort of defeats the purpose of the insurance in the first place, and the back-end years of a contract are usually the fattest and biggest risk. Which is why I think that Loria might be very reluctant to offer more than 3 years. Not that he won't, it just makes it less likely.

 

Certainly, teams pay WC on all "regular" employees and I don't see any reason why players wouldn't also be covered unless there is some specific exemption in the law. I haven't checked.

 

Your point on hidden employee costs is well taken. Many people are unaware of all the costs beyond basic compensation. 7.65% employer FICA, 1 to 2% combined state unemployment and FUTA, 1 to 10% work comp insurance coverage (depending on industry,) pension contributions, life, health and disability insurance coverage, etc., etc.

Lets be realistic here .... there's no possible way we'll be able to sign JJ after 2 years if he keeps his current numbers up. This guy is an absolute stud ... a 15-20 game winner with a sub 3 ERA. The front office will do something in the next 2 years to try and get the most value for JJ as opposed to letting him walk after 2 years.

 

If he signs with Boston, NY, or LA .... he will receive close to a $100 million contract. My guess is about $15 million a year. I'm all for trading him and getting some very reputable prospects in return.

 

 

 

 

How can you say something like that?