Washington definitely worries me in regards to Buehrle. They don't seem afraid to overspend to get what they want.

 

I'd be more worried about the Yankees. They are reportedly interested in him and not only are they unafraid to overpay, they also have unlimited funds to do so.

What kind of contracts do you guys see Buehrle and Jackson commanding? Both 3 year deals I would assume

Washington definitely worries me in regards to Buehrle. They don't seem afraid to overspend to get what they want.

 

I'd be more worried about the Yankees. They are reportedly interested in him and not only are they unafraid to overpay, they also have unlimited funds to do so.

I really have nothing to base this on but I can't see Buehrle playing in NY.

 

But then again, money talks

So one guy sucks, and we can't understand why anyone would be interested. The other guy is basically unquestionable.

 

Last three years:

 

Buerhle: 629 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.316 WHIP

Jackson: 623 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.363 WHIP

 

Jackson has allowed 1 earned run more over the last 3 years.

 

Right now, they're basically the same pitcher. They arrive at their outcomes in different ways, but the outcomes are largely similar.

 

The difference is one guy is 28 on opening day and the other is 33. Given the next 3-4 years, one guy is a much better bet to be the better pitcher. I'll let you guys decide which.

 

 

 

 

"He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills."

i would love to see that stat on a baseball card

 

 

It's called "Home Runs Allowed." It's not a very difficult concept. Good burn, though.

 

Are you going to completely ignore peripherals? Mark Buerhle is exponentially more likely to keep producing the type of season that Mark Buerhle has put up for the last decade than Jackson is. Will Mark Buerhle have an outstanding season? Probably not. But he probably won't have a terrible season either. With Jackson, it's either gonna be a great season, or a terrible one.

 

Yes, Jackson strikes out more batters, but he also walks more batters. He also has higher line drive rates, along with lower ground ball rates. This is all conducive to more inconsistent play. Do we really need another Ricky Nolasco? We'd be better off just keeping Nolasco and not signing either rather than spending the money it would take to sign Jackson (I'm gonna estimate something around 4/50) and then trading Ricky.

So one guy sucks, and we can't understand why anyone would be interested. The other guy is basically unquestionable.

 

Last three years:

 

Buerhle: 629 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.316 WHIP

Jackson: 623 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.363 WHIP

 

Jackson has allowed 1 earned run more over the last 3 years.

 

Right now, they're basically the same pitcher. They arrive at their outcomes in different ways, but the outcomes are largely similar.

 

The difference is one guy is 28 on opening day and the other is 33. Given the next 3-4 years, one guy is a much better bet to be the better pitcher. I'll let you guys decide which.

 

 

 

 

"He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills."

i would love to see that stat on a baseball card

 

 

It's called "Home Runs Allowed." It's not a very difficult concept. Good burn, though.

 

Are you going to completely ignore peripherals? Mark Buerhle is exponentially more likely to keep producing the type of season that Mark Buerhle has put up for the last decade than Jackson is. Will Mark Buerhle have an outstanding season? Probably not. But he probably won't have a terrible season either. With Jackson, it's either gonna be a great season, or a terrible one.

 

Yes, Jackson strikes out more batters, but he also walks more batters. He also has higher line drive rates, along with lower ground ball rates. This is all conducive to more inconsistent play. Do we really need another Ricky Nolasco? We'd be better off just keeping Nolasco and not signing either rather than spending the money it would take to sign Jackson (I'm gonna estimate something around 4/50) and then trading Ricky.

 

thank you.

whether you guys want buehrle or not, we have no need for guys like edwin jackson unless you want a walk and hit each inning. he is a 1.40 WHIP easily and is only a decent strikeout pitcher.

 

and hes like ricky in that when hes bad, hes horrible.

 

 

It's incredible how you just ignored bobbob's post which states otherwise.

 

Seriously, who cares about Edwin Jackson's career #'s? He's clearly been a different pitcher the last 3 years than he was at the beginning of his career when he sucked. 3 years of 200+ innings is a telling sample.

 

As stated, Jackson has more upside as well. And he'd probably be cheaper.

 

I'll take Buehrle like anyone else but I certainly wouldn't mind Edwin Jackson.

 

im sorry but i dont want to spend significant money on a guy whose "good year" last year was 199.1 innings yet had 225 hits, 62 walks (considered very good for him), and a mediocre 148 strikeouts to go along with a 1.44 whip.

 

very serviceable but not worth it when we dont know if javy will be back, ricky blows, and JJ is never healthy.

 

i would have taken a shot at him after 2009 but hes ricky nolasco with less control, less strikouts, and a slightly better career ERA.

 

we do not need another guy like that. we need a better pitcher whether its buerhle or not.

So one guy sucks, and we can't understand why anyone would be interested. The other guy is basically unquestionable.

 

Last three years:

 

Buerhle: 629 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.316 WHIP

Jackson: 623 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.363 WHIP

 

Jackson has allowed 1 earned run more over the last 3 years.

 

Right now, they're basically the same pitcher. They arrive at their outcomes in different ways, but the outcomes are largely similar.

 

The difference is one guy is 28 on opening day and the other is 33. Given the next 3-4 years, one guy is a much better bet to be the better pitcher. I'll let you guys decide which.

 

 

 

 

"He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills."

i would love to see that stat on a baseball card

 

 

It's called "Home Runs Allowed." It's not a very difficult concept. Good burn, though.

 

Are you going to completely ignore peripherals? Mark Buerhle is exponentially more likely to keep producing the type of season that Mark Buerhle has put up for the last decade than Jackson is. Will Mark Buerhle have an outstanding season? Probably not. But he probably won't have a terrible season either. With Jackson, it's either gonna be a great season, or a terrible one.

 

Yes, Jackson strikes out more batters, but he also walks more batters. He also has higher line drive rates, along with lower ground ball rates. This is all conducive to more inconsistent play. Do we really need another Ricky Nolasco? We'd be better off just keeping Nolasco and not signing either rather than spending the money it would take to sign Jackson (I'm gonna estimate something around 4/50) and then trading Ricky.

 

Jackson last three years:

2009: FIP 4.28, xFIP 4.32, 39.1% GB, 18.4% LD

2010: FIP 3.86, xFIP 3.71, 49.4% GB, 18.8% LD

2011: FIP 3.55, xFIP 3.73, 43.7% GB, 24.9% LD

 

Buerhle last three years:

2009: FIP 4.46, xFIP 4.37, 45.2% GB, 18.9% LD

2010: FIP 3.90, xFIP 4.49, 45.7% GB, 15.9% LD

2011: FIP 3.98, xFIP 4.14, 44.9%, 19.7% LD

 

I am not going to completely ignore peripherals. They're very close. But like I said, one's on the upswing of his career, one's on the down.

 

I'm honestly a little bit shocked at how strongly against Jackson some people here are. Perception's a hard thing to change.

Its hard to get a grasp on Jackson since he's been on 5 teams in 4 years. He had a pretty bleak tenure in TB followed by one year in Detroit.. in which he spun an all-star first half (terrible 2nd half) in to a 2 year deal from Arizona. He immediately went to crap in Arizona. Getting traded to Chicago seemed to have woken him up in the 2nd half of last year. Had a solid season this year for two teams which he again will spin in to another contract. I think there's a fear, at least from me, that we could see a pitcher like we saw in Arizona after he gets a new contract.. which would be a gigantic blow to the fish.

 

I dunno.. I understand each side of the argument.. I'd just much rather have Buehrle. I think he could be 15 game winner, 3.30 type pitcher for us.

I absolutely understand both arguments. I don't understand the over-the-top criticisms of Jackson while Buerhle is unquestioned.

Jackson is more inconsistent. We need a sure thing veteran pitcher, especially a lefty. Especially just for the clubhouse, enough of having a team of 26 year olds only.

Jackson is more inconsistent.

 

 

While acknowledging the flaws in the stat, Mark Buerhle only averages two more quality starts per season over the last three years.

 

You guys are really overstating the differences between the two.

i just want the veteran lefty. i also love the fact that his games go about 2 hours. he is the anti volstad.

I want the guy who will give us the best 3 or 4 seasons of baseball.

I want the guy who will give us the best 3 or 4 seasons of baseball.

 

when talking about starting pitching for us, I'm fine with just a 1 year deal for buehrle rather than a longterm deal for another righty in jackson who has had success, yes, but has also had a few years where he has been bad.

Buerhle's not signing a one-year deal.

Offer him a 1 year, $45 million deal. He can't refuse.

Buerhle's not signing a one-year deal.

 

id rather sign buehrle to a 2-3 year deal than jackson to a long term deal any day

Buerhle's not signing a one-year deal.

 

id rather sign buehrle to a 2-3 year deal than jackson to a long term deal any day

 

Buerhle's not signing for two years. He's probably not signing for three years.

 

He's 32. He's got one big paycheck left, and it's coming this summer. He's not going to settle.

Buehrle should be our top priority. People are going to overpay for Wilson and Jackson because the market is thin, and IMO they are question marks. Buehrle proves year in and year out that he is a top of the line starter, and the guy is not as old as you'd think... Nothing scares me about him. If we are going to commit that kind of money to the rotation, and we can't afford mistakes, this is the guy.

 

 

I think there are certainly reasons not to want to sign him:

 

He'll be 33 years old opening day.

He doesn't strike anyone out.

He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills.

He relies on his defense a lot, and there's no guarantee we'll be running out a great one behind him.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't sign him, but there's no upside left in him anymore, and there's always the possibility that things catch up to him. I'd be fine if we did, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more than a 4 ERA every year.

 

Yes, at an almost guaranteed 200+ innings, a 4 ERA is really cool. He would absolutely solidify our staff. But it's a safe move that has very little upside. I can absolutely see why people wouldn't be big on it.

I think that's a fair assessment..

 

My argument would be that Buehrle has been the same pitcher his entire career... he won't blow you away but he's a terrifically intelligent pithcer who works extremely fast and has great mechanics. So for the next 3 years I see no reason why his ability won't stay the same.. which with a move the NL, his upside would be an ERA closer to 3 than 4... which would be extremely valuable to us.

 

I know a "clubhouse guy" and "fan favorites" are dirty words around here.. but he's got that going for him too... not that it really matters.

 

I think yours is a much better assesment than the one you quoted, Lou.

 

Keep in mind, the Florida Marlins DO NOT sign pitchers to deals past 3 years unless their name is Josh Johnson. That basically means Jackson is definitely out, considering he will most certainly command a 4-6 year deal and I don't see Beinfest handing out a guarantee like that to Jackson.

 

NOW, I certainly see a 3-year deal in Buehrle's future... Like you said, he has been the absolute model for consistency, the same way Javy Vazquez has been, and almost every sign says you will not lose by signing him. The Marlins talk about spending money wisely, let's give the dollars to a guy that has shown he ALWAYS deserves his salary and will only grab a 3-year deal anyway...

I like that people list all of these reasons why Buerhle is an attractive candidate in free agency and then think he's going to take a 3-year contract. Apparently both him and his agent, not to mention every single team in the league, are unaware of how good of a pitcher he is. He's our little secret!

What you all didn't know is that Ozzie has put little mindcontrolling microchips in all of his former players.

The team that offers him the 4th year will probably be the team that signs him.

For what it's worth, the results of FanGraph's fansourcing experiment to see what their readers thought the contracts of FAs would be were released.

 

Buehrle's average result was 2.7 years, $11.1 million per.

Jackson's were 3.3 years, $10.4 million per.

 

Not saying it's worth much, except as a though experiment, but it's interesting to see the perceptions of each. People don't think their contracts will be too dissimilar.

Buehrle should be our top priority. People are going to overpay for Wilson and Jackson because the market is thin, and IMO they are question marks. Buehrle proves year in and year out that he is a top of the line starter, and the guy is not as old as you'd think... Nothing scares me about him. If we are going to commit that kind of money to the rotation, and we can't afford mistakes, this is the guy.

 

 

I think there are certainly reasons not to want to sign him:

 

He'll be 33 years old opening day.

He doesn't strike anyone out.

He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills.

He relies on his defense a lot, and there's no guarantee we'll be running out a great one behind him.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't sign him, but there's no upside left in him anymore, and there's always the possibility that things catch up to him. I'd be fine if we did, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more than a 4 ERA every year.

 

Yes, at an almost guaranteed 200+ innings, a 4 ERA is really cool. He would absolutely solidify our staff. But it's a safe move that has very little upside. I can absolutely see why people wouldn't be big on it.

I think that's a fair assessment..

 

My argument would be that Buehrle has been the same pitcher his entire career... he won't blow you away but he's a terrifically intelligent pithcer who works extremely fast and has great mechanics. So for the next 3 years I see no reason why his ability won't stay the same.. which with a move the NL, his upside would be an ERA closer to 3 than 4... which would be extremely valuable to us.

 

I know a "clubhouse guy" and "fan favorites" are dirty words around here.. but he's got that going for him too... not that it really matters.

 

I think yours is a much better assesment than the one you quoted, Lou.

 

Keep in mind, the Florida Marlins DO NOT sign pitchers to deals past 3 years unless their name is Josh Johnson. That basically means Jackson is definitely out, considering he will most certainly command a 4-6 year deal and I don't see Beinfest handing out a guarantee like that to Jackson.

 

NOW, I certainly see a 3-year deal in Buehrle's future... Like you said, he has been the absolute model for consistency, the same way Javy Vazquez has been, and almost every sign says you will not lose by signing him. The Marlins talk about spending money wisely, let's give the dollars to a guy that has shown he ALWAYS deserves his salary and will only grab a 3-year deal anyway...

Nice jab at bobbob, even though he actually used facts and Iowa simply painted some broad strokes (not that there's anything wrong with broad strokes, just that they don't qualify as a "much better assessment" than facts).

 

And your analysis is garbage. The pre-2011 Marlins spending habits are borderline irrelevant. They haven't been a player for a major free agent starting pitcher for a very long time, and not with the promise of the new revenue stream.

 

Vazquez was miserable for a couple of months and brilliant for a couple. He ended with good stats, sure, but not a "consistent" season. And his last 4 ERAs were 4.67, 2.87, 5.32, 3.69. His average yearly ERA change is greater than 2.00. Yeah, a model of consistency.

Buehrle should be our top priority. People are going to overpay for Wilson and Jackson because the market is thin, and IMO they are question marks. Buehrle proves year in and year out that he is a top of the line starter, and the guy is not as old as you'd think... Nothing scares me about him. If we are going to commit that kind of money to the rotation, and we can't afford mistakes, this is the guy.

 

 

I think there are certainly reasons not to want to sign him:

 

He'll be 33 years old opening day.

He doesn't strike anyone out.

He doesn't have elite home run prevention skills.

He relies on his defense a lot, and there's no guarantee we'll be running out a great one behind him.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't sign him, but there's no upside left in him anymore, and there's always the possibility that things catch up to him. I'd be fine if we did, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more than a 4 ERA every year.

 

Yes, at an almost guaranteed 200+ innings, a 4 ERA is really cool. He would absolutely solidify our staff. But it's a safe move that has very little upside. I can absolutely see why people wouldn't be big on it.

I think that's a fair assessment..

 

My argument would be that Buehrle has been the same pitcher his entire career... he won't blow you away but he's a terrifically intelligent pithcer who works extremely fast and has great mechanics. So for the next 3 years I see no reason why his ability won't stay the same.. which with a move the NL, his upside would be an ERA closer to 3 than 4... which would be extremely valuable to us.

 

I know a "clubhouse guy" and "fan favorites" are dirty words around here.. but he's got that going for him too... not that it really matters.

 

I think yours is a much better assesment than the one you quoted, Lou.

 

Keep in mind, the Florida Marlins DO NOT sign pitchers to deals past 3 years unless their name is Josh Johnson. That basically means Jackson is definitely out, considering he will most certainly command a 4-6 year deal and I don't see Beinfest handing out a guarantee like that to Jackson.

 

NOW, I certainly see a 3-year deal in Buehrle's future... Like you said, he has been the absolute model for consistency, the same way Javy Vazquez has been, and almost every sign says you will not lose by signing him. The Marlins talk about spending money wisely, let's give the dollars to a guy that has shown he ALWAYS deserves his salary and will only grab a 3-year deal anyway...

 

You actually think some team might offer Edwin Jackson 6 years?

You think Buehrle is not capable of getting more than 3?

 

The Marlins don't spend more than 3 years on pitchers because they've never spent this way before. They spent on Josh Johnson because he's been the only pitcher in recent years to be awesome enough to get such a contract. At least when healthy. When did the Marlins come out with the policy saying they would never spend more than 3 years on a pitcher?