June 6, 201412 yr With pick No. 227 (8th Round) The Marlins select CF Stone Garrett (6'2" 195 lbs) from George Ranch HS in Texas. Mlb.com scouting report: Listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Garrett looks the part of a big league corner outfielder and has the requisite raw power. But after an inconsistent spring, scouts have questions about his overall hitting ability. Garrett has a stiff, mechanical swing and will need to refine his approach. If he can make more contact, he will be able to unlock more of his power. Garrett is an average runner with a fringy arm. He plays mostly left field in high school and will likely stay there whether he signs or upholds his commitment to Rice.
June 6, 201412 yr Author You're hearing that he could be in the MLB rotation by at 19 years old? http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mia/phil-rogers-tyler-kolek-grown-from-same-blue-collar-texas-roots-as-nolan-ryan?ymd=20140605&content_id=78422622&vkey=news_mia "The original Ryan doesn't think they'll have to wait that long for Kolek to complete his development. If Ryan is right, he could be working alongside Jose Fernandez shortly after Fernandez returns from Tommy John surgery." ^ I wouldn't just make something up and post it for no reason.
June 6, 201412 yr Fish take LHP Michael Mader (6'2" 195 lbs) from Chipola College in Florida Scouting report from mlb.com: Mader was named the 2013 Panhandle Conference Pitcher of the Year as a freshman after going 8-3 with a 3.19 ERA. Though he wasn't honored for a second year in a row, scouts say his stuff has improved this spring. Mader has added some velocity to his fastball, which tops out at 95 mph. More typically it sits in the low 90s with tailing action. His breaking ball has the most potential of his secondary offerings. At its best, it looks like a biting curveball, but it can get slurvy. There is some effort in his delivery, and he struggled with his control at times. Mader was expected to be drafted last year, but he told teams he preferred to return for another season at Chipola and ultimately wasn't selected. Should he decide to return to school again, he is committed to Florida State. If they can sign him it is a very solid pick
June 6, 201412 yr Now that I've been variously claimed to be Samson, Loria and Beinfest, today I'll be, uh, let's see, how about Jennings? Just for one post. The bitching about Loria on this thread has been nothing short of ridiculous. Nobody here has ANY idea if Loria had anything to say about the #2 pick or any other pick. Rodon was rumored to be his preference. Nobody here knows if that was true or, if true, if it mattered. For all we know, upon the Beinfest firing, the new, incoming, reconfigured FO demanded and got total autonomy on drafting and probably many other things. Rodon was supposed to cost 8 mill, but the slot money for Kolek is 6.8 mill and that's supposed to make the difference? Please. People constantly seem to forget that any and every MLB operation costs 300+ mill/year to run. A mill here or there is certainly not peanuts, but in the context of 300+ mill is rarely determinative of much at all. I like Kolek. A lot. I think that Nolan Ryan is probably right -- he'll get here faster than the conventional wisdom would predict. Hopefully, he turns into a monster like Jose. Of course it's ridiculous but so is your undying defense of him. The point is 1.2 million should NOT make a difference to a major league baseball team but based on previous actions of this team that kind of money does seem to affect decisions and it doesn't matter if that is Loria directly making the decision or setting a tiny and super strict budget where it makes a difference either way. As you said that kind of money should not make a difference. This high in the draft you have to take best player available. Taking a guy to save so little is a terrible decision. Now if this was a different team we would all assume that the team just thought Kolek was a better prospect. Because of the history of this franchise, including transactions of just last week, it would be naive to assume that even though it may be true.
June 7, 201412 yr Defense of Loria ridiculous? Not at all. Here's what the FO faced. The slot value for the #2 pick is 6.8 mill. The Marlins had the largest budget cap of all 30 teams at 14.2 mill until they traded 1.46 mill off to PIT, leaving a 12.74 mill cap. HOU was then 1st at 13.4 mill. By comparison, BOS (ignoring compensatory, etc. picks) has a total cap of about 5 mill. 12.74 mill? Doesn't sound like Loria or anyone else is being "cheap." The Marlins can sign Kolek for more or less than 6.8 mill -- if more, it comes out of the hides of the picks in the next 9 rounds, unless the Marlins want to pay a penalty of 75% of any overage betwixt and between all of picks in the 1st 10 rounds. And you can't just refuse to sign anyone to avoid going over your cap. If we had taken Rodon as the #2, he still wanted 8 mill (7.9 mill is the #1 slot money) -- Boras is his agent. That's a potential 1.2 mill overage with a 75% penalty on any (total for all 10 rounds) overage -- could be up to 900K. And what's the penalty for ANY overage above 637K (5%)? LOSS OF NEXT YEAR'S 1ST ROUND PICK. Go 10% over (1.274 mill)? Lose next year's 1st AND 2nd round picks. No MLB team has ever done either. Can you imagine the outcry and gnashing of teeth, and perhaps calls for Loria's head on a platter if the Marlins were forced into doing that? The FO obviously liked Kolek. A LOT. Every senior FO guy actually went to TX to watch him play and talk to him. So, what would you rather do? Draft a guy who can probably be signed for slot money or maybe less (HOU signed their last two #1s for over 1 mill less than slot) or sign a guy who you ALREADY KNOW will cost you 1.2 mill MORE than slot and may screw up your ability to sign the rest of your picks (leaving only 4.7 mill instead of 5.9 mill for all of them) and possibly ALSO cost you a future pick or two? This was NOT just about a lousy 1.2 mill or even 1.2 mill plus a .9 mill penalty (which nobody whining about Loria above even knew about, never mind the potential loss of future picks.) This was just nothing but the usual supposition and conclusion-jumping about Loria. As it turns out, the fact that the FO was MUCH more interested in Kolek than Rodon all along (nobody knew the travel schedules of the FO guys until now -- as they said "We spent a lot of hours on him. We helped the economy in Shepherd, Texas") and the very serious implications of what Rodon/Boras was demanding on the rest of the draft and possibly next year's draft almost certainly had everything to do with our choice.
June 7, 201412 yr I don't recall ever reading that Rodon wanted number 1 ($8 million) money. In fact, I thought I read that he was just looking for something north of $6 million. While Boras has the reputation of being a hardass, Rodon has very little leverage in this situation. He's a college arm who fell in the rankings because of overuse and slight performance decline. Now if the Marlins considered drafting him a year ago, that'd be a different story, but under the present circumstances, I'd bet that they could sign Rodon for the slot value if they wanted him. I also bet they end up signing Kolek below slot value too.
June 7, 201412 yr I don't recall ever reading that Rodon wanted number 1 ($8 million) money. Here's one example -- Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State: The overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall before the season began struggled at times. Though a number of people in Houston's front office adore Rodon, he wants every bit of the near-$8 million, and the Astros' strategy as seen in their previous two years picking 1-1 is not to pay slot. https://sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb-draft-chaos-is-upon-us-143611758.html I've also seen the 8 mill number mentioned elsewhere. Boras seems to think he's worth 8, #1 or not. Who needs that aggravation? Boras is Boras and if you want Rodon you have to deal with him. Not that Rodon has any leverage, he can't say "I want to go to college again," but if you really wanted Kolek all along -- and they certainly seem to have -- why even bother with the possibilities of all of the downsides of Rodon? Downsides being both the draft-money limit problems and his possible physical problems due to innings. So they didn't. I think it's kind of funny that both HOU and the Marlins passed on him.
June 7, 201412 yr MLB Trade Rumors, for one, has said that Rodon "wants" "more than $6 million" and of course "wanting" is not the same as "willing to sign for." Although I cannot deny the $8 million figure as something he "wants," most of the information points to it being unlikely that he only signs for a figure in that neighborhood. The lack of leverage simply cannot be overlooked. A year ago he was projected to be the clear favorite for the first overall pick a la Strasburg, but then his coach went ahead and overused him, his performance dropped, and then he fell as low as five or six in some mock drafts. If Rodon will only sign for a little over the #2 slot value and the Marlins think he's the BPA, you absolutely pay a little over slot at the expense of the later picks. You simply cannot fuck up the second overall pick. They would have been better off skimping on that 39th pick (and allocating some for #2), instead of trading it to Pittsburgh for Morris. I genuinely do not believe that the Marlins were being confronted with the possibility of paying an overage penalty or losing a draft pick here. I have no doubts that they liked Kolek, but there is no evidence to suggest that they liked his talent "all along" over Rodon here, which is why it seems reasonable to assume that cheapness plays a part.
June 7, 201412 yr Huh. Seems that even a Cubs guy thought they were after Kolek all along. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins were going to draft Tyler Kolek just a few weeks ago but I was just told that the Marlins have been leaning heavily now toward OF'er Alex Jackson. http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/05/mlb-draft-notes-marlins-ramping-up-scouting-efforts-on-alex-jackson-and-could-sox-pick-nick-gordon/ That piece was written 3 weeks ago by a neutral observer (of us) in Chicago, so Arguello was onto something 5-6 weeks ago, even though he doubted his original information, which turned out to be right. The Marlins went after Kolek -- they spent a small fortune traipsing back and forth to Texas and staying there to watch and talk to Kolek, as they've said. They obviously didn't think that Rodon was either the BPA or BAA. There's plenty of evidence that they liked Kolek "all along" over Rodon, never mind the huge possible cost-of-signing problems and penalties associated with Rodon and it's not reasonable at all to assume that cheapness played any part in it. That's just more of the usual Loria-bashing.
June 7, 201412 yr Oh, please. There were plenty of "guys" who thought that the Marlins were in pursuit of Rodon too. You cannot pick one representative from the Cubs and pass it off as authoritative. The Cubs guy was also saying that the Marlins were moving toward Jackson, which we know now wasn't the case. So he was basically wrong or getting old information there. You also mentioned yourself the report where Loria was interested in Rodon. I also wouldn't dwell too much on the "spending a small fortune to go to Texas" line. Weren't you the one saying recently that $1.2 million was basically chump change in the scheme of things (the scope of the Marlins operating budget)? The travel expenses for something like that are less than pocket change. And of course the Marlins are going to be spending time/money investigating all of the players considered to be at the top of the draft. The bottom line is that traveling to Texas by no means suggests that the Marlins "obviously" didn't think that Rodon was the best player available. You should know better. I have yet to see any reason or one ounce evidence to suggest that the Marlins genuinely considered Kolek the BPA. The fact that most of baseball appears to consider Rodon the better arm supports the theory that the Marlins went with Kolek for his lower cost/signability.
June 7, 201412 yr And, of course, now that the pick has been made, the Marlins are going to skew their rhetoric to make it sound more like that Kolek was "their guy" all along. All teams do that. I wouldn't take the "we loved him so much we went to his sheep farm" remark at face value. This pick was obviously about signability and not BPA.
June 7, 201412 yr And, of course, now that the pick has been made, the Marlins are going to skew their rhetoric to make it sound more like that Kolek was "their guy" all along. All teams do that. I wouldn't take the "we loved him so much we went to his sheep farm" remark at face value. This pick was obviously about signability and not BPA. And the kicker is that even though they took him for signability, they still went cheap with theit other picks. Gatewood was available at 36. For an organization so devoid of any talent at SS, it makes no sense to pass up on him except for $$$ issues (Instead they take the guy who was listed in the top 200).
June 7, 201412 yr I'm no MLB Draft expert, but why do people assume we went with Kolek because of price tag? The second I read a write-up on Kolek I figured he was our guy based purely on history. This franchise (at least post-2000) has been built on prep power arms, and this guy might be the biggest prep power arm ever. It's a natural fit.
June 7, 201412 yr This pick was obviously about signability and not BPA. How can you argue against ... that Rodon was not demanding $8 Mill and could have signed at slot, and then go and say we didn't draft the BPA due to money issues? You can't have it both ways. If they felt they could have got Rodon at slot, and still took Kolek, that means he was their BPA. And considering his fastball graded out at 80 and is the best prep fastball ever, I can't say I can blame them.
June 7, 201412 yr And the kicker is that even though they took him for signability, they still went cheap with theit other picks. Gatewood was available at 36. For an organization so devoid of any talent at SS, it makes no sense to pass up on him except for $$$ issues (Instead they take the guy who was listed in the top 200). Gatewood's hit tool had become so questionable Law actually ridiculued the Brewers for taking him so early... The SS we got from Texas actually sounds like a hell of an athlete with some unreal bat speed and I am glad they took him.
June 7, 201412 yr How can you argue against ... that Rodon was not demanding $8 Mill and could have signed at slot, and then go and say we didn't draft the BPA due to money issues? You can't have it both ways. If they felt they could have got Rodon at slot, and still took Kolek, that means he was their BPA. And considering his fastball graded out at 80 and is the best prep fastball ever, I can't say I can blame them. You're objection makes no sense. While I might not be surprised if the Marlins could sign Rodon for close to slot, the Marlins might not have that perception. Of course, this also doesn't mean that the Marlins were convinced that Rodon would sign for $8 million--it could have been more that they didn't want to pay much more than $6 million.
June 7, 201412 yr I'm no MLB Draft expert, but why do people assume we went with Kolek because of price tag? The second I read a write-up on Kolek I figured he was our guy based purely on history. This franchise (at least post-2000) has been built on prep power arms, and this guy might be the biggest prep power arm ever. It's a natural fit. I'm not sure if the mid first round picks that the Marlins have had thus far really serve as accurate historical precedent for a 2nd overall pick. In my opinion at least, the 2nd overall pick demands for less "raw talent" and more polish, because it's a can't miss scenario. I like Kolek overall and am far from calling it a bad pick (though he does seem to have some minor command issues), but I'd rather they have drafted Rodon.
June 7, 201412 yr You're objection makes no sense. While I might not be surprised if the Marlins could sign Rodon for close to slot, the Marlins might not have that perception. Of course, this also doesn't mean that the Marlins were convinced that Rodon would sign for $8 million--it could have been more that they didn't want to pay much more than $6 million. Or it could have been they felt Kolek was the better pick. We are talking about the two pitchers with the two best pitches in the draft, one with a longer time table but higher upside and one that's close to the majors but carries risks as well. As I have mentioned several times, since we have so many arms at the top of the system, they have time to develop Kolek and still be competitive at the ML level for years with the pitching currently available at the top of the farm.
June 7, 201412 yr Again, It's possible that they saw Kolek as the better pick, but there's no real evidence for that yet. There's no hard evidence that signability was the main concern, but the circumstances point in that direction. You're point about drafting younger arms because the Marlins have a lot of near MLB ready pitching is still idiotic. First, that would go against the BPA philosophy. Second, the Marlins have a potential to be a legitimately good team on the horizon if they manage to keep Stanton around for a year or two. With that in mind, you absolutely play for the near future than the distant future. This team could be crazy good in 2016, and having someone like Rodon would be a great asset. Even if they trade Stanton soon, the pieces they get in return could be a big part of the near future too.
June 7, 201412 yr Anyway, it's beyond idiotic to suggest that the Marlins would base their 2nd overall pick on the fact that they have Brian Flynn, Desclafani, and Nicolino in their minor league system.
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