http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/12/20/7424211/yankees-marlins-trade-prado-eovaldi-mlb

 

Article on the trade with NY that's pro-Marlins.

they could sign Shcerzer and Jung-Ho Kang right now and still be right around $100m

 

with that said: they should sign Scherzer and Jung-Ho Kang

 

 

Poptart, you just love seeing money change hands

maybe I secretly represent every MLB player and get a cut. whatever brah

 

you can't try to tell me that Scherzer wouldn't improve the team tho

 

 

He would but it's a bad contract considering the massive amount of money he already turned down from Detroit. Like it or not we will never have a Dodgers payroll so you'd be lessening the chances of keeping Jose with that deal

Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

 

 

Alchemy was conventional wisdom too at one point in time, which doesn't mean that it was right. In this case conventional wisdom is a bad thing, because statistics prove otherwise.

 

And saying that Gordon will "impact more than stats will provide" sounds like a ridiculous Wild Cardism to me.

 

 

I mean its a given they're gonna bat Dee 1st so it's kinda moot. Redmond and Hill can hardly contain their excitement, they feel like it's the Pierre-Castillo magic again from 2003.

 

 

Agreed, but obviously the point of message boards like this one is to sometimes question practice and discuss what teams should be doing.

 

 

Does anyone think Nick Wittgren has a chance at contributing in the Majors this season?

 

I know he took somewhat of a step back in 2014, so I wonder what the Marlins envision for him.

 

 

Does anyone think Nick Wittgren has a chance at contributing in the Majors this season?

 

I know he took somewhat of a step back in 2014, so I wonder what the Marlins envision for him.

 

 

 

Marlins pen is pretty good, and set, so I doubt it.

If you hit Gordon 7th you just eliminated the most useful part of his game. With Morse/Ozuna/Salty hitting in front of him if any of them simply get on base you basically took away Gordon's game. I understand you're saying put him 7th because as a hitter he's worse than guys like Yelich and Prado and doesn't have a real good ability to walk and get on base, but you don't trade for a guy coming off a 60+ stolen base season and not bat him leadoff.

 

That's stupid and basically turns Gordon from a threat to score to start off every game to a likely average bat with much fewer chances to steal bases and show the main skill he brings to this team.

 

His steals are actually more valuable later in the lineup, when him advancing to scoring position helps hitters with less power than the middle of the order. On Base AND Speed leading off? Yes. Poor On Base and Speed leading off? Not ideal.

 

 

Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

 

Elaborate on why Gordon will 'impact more than the stats can provide.' Interested in hearing it.

 

 

Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

 

Elaborate on why Gordon will 'impact more than the stats can provide.' Interested in hearing it.

I can think of a couple. When he does get on, pitcher has to use slid step, that will impact are number 2 hitter for the better. Also lefty hitter will always have a bigger hole with first baseman always having to hold gordon. Just some things stats won't see by having a speedster leading off.

Having a hitter at the top of the lineup who is more likely to avoid making outs is much more statistically desirable than having a guy who steals 60 SBs. The base stealing component is conventional wisdom, but really overstated.

 

The general rule for sabermetric lineup optimization is to avoid as many outs as possible at the top of the lineup. But of course, if the OBP between two players is very similar, then you would default toward the guy with more SBs.

 

Also, Ozuna, Saltalamacchia, and Morse are note exactly high OBP guys, so you are drastically overstating the impact that their presence on base will have on Gordon's "most useful part of the game" (SBs). All three are much more balanced toward power than on base ability. In fact, if you are really that worried about other guys being on base in front of Gordon, then you would just swap him with Hechavarria (hit Gordon 8th). Then you set him up better to be moved around by Yelich and Prado.

 

So in other words, in my scenario, the only real measurable impact on reducing Gordon's opportunities to steal bases would be him getting less PAs over the course of the season, which should be the case anyway.

 

 

 

Why do people try and reinvent the wheel? Conventional wisdom isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having Gordon lead off will impact more than the stats can provide, and that's why managers still put players like him at the top. They have more of a positive impact than OBP alone will suggest.

 

 

Alchemy was conventional wisdom too at one point in time, which doesn't mean that it was right. In this case conventional wisdom is a bad thing, because statistics prove otherwise.

 

And saying that Gordon will "impact more than stats will provide" sounds like a ridiculous Wild Cardism to me.

 

 

 

I have to disagree with this being just another "wild cardism" here. Having speed on the bases is thought to affect certain things, particularly pitch selection (a lot more fast balls and a lot less off speed pitches) and pitcher confidence (ie, the runner is a major distraction to the pitcher as he has to try and hold the runner). This in turn, in theory, would increase avg and slugging numbers for batters, particularly when the speed is on first.

 

Whether any of this is true or not, I'm not sure. There is probably a site out there (fangraphs, possibly?) that might give you information on how much of an improvement there was in their batting stats when Gordon was on first as opposed to not, or as opposed to when someone else without speed was on first (might be more applicable here), but I'm not too interested in doing that research.

 

Just saying, that's not really just a wild card thing. Though I do think it's something that is a bit overstated.

 

 

The fact that someone thinks thats just me being me says just how much some people know about baseball outside of the statistical realm.

 

I wish I could take credit for those theories, but it's baseball 101 for anyone who plays or manages the game.

The running game is certainly an hindrance to opposing pitchers, but by no means something outside of the realm of statistics. As you much of what Undakai is alluding to can be subject to sabermetric inquiry. However, keep in mind that just having runners on base also puts pressure on the opposing pitcher and places guys like Stanton in more favorable positions. But again, remember that Gordon does not get on base at the same rate as someone like Yelich or Prado does.

 

The main rule of them is that the worst thing that a top of the order hitter can do is make a lot of outs. Gordon makes more outs than he should to be in that role, even with his speed.

 

 

Didn't think this needed a new topic so I just dug this one up... Apparently both the Red Sox and Giants are lukewarm to signing Shields and thus his market is suddenly dwindling. Any chance this opens up a window of opportunity for a lesser team like the Marlins to make a little stronger push?

 

Even though we haven't been closely linked to him, the less big money teams that want Shields means we can at least take a shot at him.

Didn't think this needed a new topic so I just dug this one up... Apparently both the Red Sox and Giants are lukewarm to signing Shields and thus his market is suddenly dwindling. Any chance this opens up a window of opportunity for a lesser team like the Marlins to make a little stronger push?

 

Even though we haven't been closely linked to him, the less big money teams that want Shields means we can at least take a shot at him.

 

 

 

I say go for it if the price is somewhat right.

I would assume they absolutely will at the very least inquire.

 

 

I think it would make a lot of sense if the shields market doesnt find him a long term deal to try and sign him to a 2-3 year deal with more money per year. He gets more money over the short term while he also gets to get back into free agency in a few years. He obviously wouldn't do that if he can find a 4-5 year deal but it would be worth looking into if he can't find that. He would be a good fit for us for the right terms.

 

 

According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, the Marlins are showing interest in free agent right-hander James Shields.

Several teams have been rumored to have interest in the veteran hurler this winter, though nothing substantive has developed yet. It's likely that he'll have to wait until Max Scherzer signs before his market really heats up.

 

 

Rotoworld blurb

 

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Ideal scenario. Go for a strong 4 year offer ($75+, vesting 5th on innings pitched), and trade Cishek, and attach Haren to him, to clear salary (approx. $17 million) to help pay for this (not having a first rounder next year will also help pay for it, for better or worse). Would get a good player or two with moving Cishek as well even if Haren is involved.

 

Go for it Marlins. This is your Jayson Werth contract moment which doesn't make total sense but you need to do it.

 

 

Id go 3 for 65-70 and see if that gets him. Id rather not go over 3 years for Shields but i really think he would be a huge addition i wouldn't be too opposed to doing whatever it takes to get him.

 

 

Lou, you're always giving second to none insight... But Cishek isn't being traded. Disney recently released a big hit, "Let it go".

Shields will be 33 next season. 4/75 with option is way more than I'd like to see the Marlins spend.

 

 

I would hate our bullpen if we traded cishek. Not a huge fan of it as it is. Anyways with all the covering of contracts by other teams i would like to see loria open his fucking pockets. We have to have a big move coming, why would we have all these teams covering salaries so much this offseason? Maybe just because we are the marlins and thats how we roll but I would love to see some foresight all offseason that leads to a big deal for a guy like Shields.