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Now that Hanley is (theoretically) signed


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Obviously Hanley is a special case, I don't know if I'd give the years to anyone else that he got..

 

but of the big names for the lineup, what would you offer?

 

the big names eligible for the first time, and who deserve multiyears (not that the Marlins will give any of them multiyear deals to buy out some time in the future):

 

Olsen, Uggla, Willingham, Jacobs, Gregg, Nolasco, Hermida

 

I'd try and sign Willingham, Hermida, Uggla, and Jacobs to 3 or 4 year deals at 3.5-4M per

Olsen is having an awesome start, but they may choose to go year to year with him for the time being, justifiably

Gregg probably isn't in their long range plans, but it behooves them to sign him affordably, he always can be flipped

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Obviously Hanley is a special case, I don't know if I'd give the years to anyone else that he got..

 

but of the big names for the lineup, what would you offer?

 

the big names eligible for the first time, and who deserve multiyears (not that the Marlins will give any of them multiyear deals to buy out some time in the future):

 

Olsen, Uggla, Willingham, Jacobs, Gregg, Nolasco, Hermida

 

I'd try and sign Willingham, Hermida, Uggla, and Jacobs to 3 or 4 year deals at 3.5-4M per

Olsen is having an awesome start, but they may choose to go year to year with him for the time being, justifiably

Gregg probably isn't in their long range plans, but it behooves them to sign him affordably, he always can be flipped

 

Olsen, I think he's finally matured (I hope)

Hammer

Hermida, I think he's the real deal

Jacobs

 

Uggla, Nolasco, and Gregg, I would let walk. I like Uggla, but, I know this sounds crazy, I would like to see Andino at second, just for a full season. To see what he can do

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you dont have to let them walk, they are under club control, so you pay them year to year, trade them, or try and give them a contract to avoid the arbitration process

 

Beinfest (or maybe Loria & Samson) prefer not giving guaranteed contracts, so players are always on their toes and feel the pressure to perform for that next contract. There IS something to be said for that, the danger is if a guy jumps expectations or over performs and deserves a super salary thru arbitration. I mean, they probably could have given Miguel a contract for less than or equal to what Hanley is getting now 2 or 3 years ago and would have looked like geniuses. (Like the Cards did giving Pujols a 10 year/100 million deal); similarly they could have given Willis a big deal after his 2nd place Cy Young finish (and probably most people would have praised it to no end) then we would have been regretting it ever since...

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Retain:

 

Hermida, Uggla, Hammer, Jake, Olsen

 

Even if one likes Coughlin, we have a hole at 3B also, and I just don't buy into Andino as an IF solution anywhere. Uggla can play 3B.

 

I'd inflate Gregg's save numbers and sell him high, then put Nolasco in that spot. Nolasco will also run up saves and I'd repeat. Closers are over rated and sell for far more than they are worth.

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Out of that group, the only players I'd consider giving more than 1 year deals to are Willingham and Hermida. And with Willingham, I wouldn't want more than a 3 year deal.

 

Gregg can, and should, be traded. He's nothing special. Go to arbitration with Nolasco. He should be a solid back of the rotation or, preferably, very good set-up man for the next few years. If necessary, ship off one of Uggla or Jacobs. I really like watching both of them play, but if you have to cut salary somewhere, those are the guys to trade. Coughlan and Sanchez can replace them eventually; if Coughlan, who is scuffling a bit in AA, needs another full year down there, go with Andino/Amezaga in a platoon next year. At least you'd get defense, and if you're lucky league average production at the plate. To replace Jacobs, you could even consider moving Willy to 1B if a LF became available or emerged from the minors (Raynor?).

 

Olsen is an interesting case. I wouldn't ink him to a big deal after this season because of all the young guns in the minors, but it wouldn't be the worst way to spend the money. I'd rather see it spend on Hermida and Willingham and just take Olsen to arby. If he continues producing through 2009, you can think about locking him up then depending on the status of all the young, cheap guys and the future payroll parameters.

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Why anyone would give Willingham anything more than a one year deal with the worst of all position players chronic injuries (labrums and elbows aside), a bad back is beyond me. This is not an "I don't like Willingham" post, I like the guy, a lot. but Unlike Jacobs where he's had a series of freak problems, Willingham's is recurring and like McPherson (I don't know enough about either particular problem) could require surgery at some point, even conceivably this season if it flares up again.

 

Good, productive player. Not the guy you want to give any long term commitment to and in his case three years is too long.

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Why anyone would give Willingham anything more than a one year deal with the worst of all position players chronic injuries (labrums and elbows aside), a bad back is beyond me. This is not an "I don't like Willingham" post, I like the guy, a lot. but Unlike Jacobs where he's had a series of freak problems, Willingham's is recurring and like McPherson (I don't know enough about either particular problem) could require surgery at some point, even conceivably this season if it flares up again.

 

Good, productive player. Not the guy you want to give any long term commitment to and in his case three years is too long.

 

Willingham always has a series of short term problems... but he will still play. You cant make the defense for Jacobs, they arent "freak" injuries. As long as the guy plays 130+ or so games, I dont see injury as a big problem.

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Why anyone would give Willingham anything more than a one year deal with the worst of all position players chronic injuries (labrums and elbows aside), a bad back is beyond me. This is not an "I don't like Willingham" post, I like the guy, a lot. but Unlike Jacobs where he's had a series of freak problems, Willingham's is recurring and like McPherson (I don't know enough about either particular problem) could require surgery at some point, even conceivably this season if it flares up again.

 

Good, productive player. Not the guy you want to give any long term commitment to and in his case three years is too long.

 

Willingham always has a series of short term problems... but he will still play. You cant make the defense for Jacobs, they arent "freak" injuries. As long as the guy plays 130+ or so games, I dont see injury as a big problem.

 

I realize by your sig you're in love with Willingham but try to be rational.

 

Jacobs - broken foot, left hand, right thumb, now an everyday quad.

 

Willingham - Recurring *back* problems going back to 2006. Said so himself. Same problem every time. His problem is skeletal not muscular and it doesn't get better without either regular cortisone treatments or eventually surgery.

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Even if one likes Coughlin, we have a hole at 3B also, and I just don't buy into Andino as an IF solution anywhere. Uggla can play 3B.

 

Does Uggla have the arm to play 3rd?

 

Yes, and the quickness and insticts, he just lacks the range to play SS. One of the common criticisms of our defense is that we have a 3B playing 2B.

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If we have the offensive core of Hermida, Uggla, and Jacobs retained and intact entering the 2011 season, I'll be satisfied.

 

I like the idea of moving Danny to 3rd with Coghlan coming up. I am also a huge Willingham fan, when he stays healthy he is a 100+ RBI guy. However, Marlins2003 makes a good point about his nagging back injuries. They don't seem like the type of thing that will work itself out, surgery might be the only solution.

 

If he can put up 480+ AB's this season it will be encouraging, but won't have me convinced.

 

As far as pitching goes, lock up Olsen and a few bullepen guys. I've never really cared for Nolasco but he might work out in the bullpen or atleast get us a prospect or two. Anibel and JJ need to be locked up as well.

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Anibal & JJ are classic examples of guys who should go to arbitration, no need for the Marlins to gamble on their health (at least not yet), they haven't DONE much to warrant more than the minimum or slightly over at this point due to the injury factors.

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With respect to Uggla , Jacobs, and Willingham we hold all the chips when negotiating all came in their mid to late 20's we can get the best years out of them without having to enter into a long term agreement with any of them. I think they all are nice pieces but none of them are untouchable and I think in a year or two we might have home grown options to replace any or all of them if needed.

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My keepers:

1. Josh Willingham (mature, and consistent)

2. Jeremy Hermida (obvious)

3. Reynel Pinto

 

Gregg - No way

Uggla - No (b/c we have a guy by the name of Chris Coghlan who can easily replace him in the near future)

Jacobs - No (he's not THAT young, and once again, we have guys like Gaby Sanchez in the minors)

 

I'm unsure about Olsen, just b/c I think Josh Johnson is better (it all depends how JJ looks after he comes back...)

 

Also...I'd hang on to Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller (never forget about these 2...funny how they become forgettable after struggling early on in their careers).

 

Remember it was just last year, Olsen was hated...he always had potential, and look now. Andrew Miller's potential is better than Olsen's (just ask any scout). Miller is only 22 years old, folks.

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Why anyone would give Willingham anything more than a one year deal with the worst of all position players chronic injuries (labrums and elbows aside), a bad back is beyond me. This is not an "I don't like Willingham" post, I like the guy, a lot. but Unlike Jacobs where he's had a series of freak problems, Willingham's is recurring and like McPherson (I don't know enough about either particular problem) could require surgery at some point, even conceivably this season if it flares up again.

 

Good, productive player. Not the guy you want to give any long term commitment to and in his case three years is too long.

 

Willingham always has a series of short term problems... but he will still play. You cant make the defense for Jacobs, they arent "freak" injuries. As long as the guy plays 130+ or so games, I dont see injury as a big problem.

 

I realize by your sig you're in love with Willingham but try to be rational.

 

Jacobs - broken foot, left hand, right thumb, now an everyday quad.

 

Willingham - Recurring *back* problems going back to 2006. Said so himself. Same problem every time. His problem is skeletal not muscular and it doesn't get better without either regular cortisone treatments or eventually surgery.

Agreed.

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Why anyone would give Willingham anything more than a one year deal with the worst of all position players chronic injuries (labrums and elbows aside), a bad back is beyond me. This is not an "I don't like Willingham" post, I like the guy, a lot. but Unlike Jacobs where he's had a series of freak problems, Willingham's is recurring and like McPherson (I don't know enough about either particular problem) could require surgery at some point, even conceivably this season if it flares up again.

 

Good, productive player. Not the guy you want to give any long term commitment to and in his case three years is too long.

 

This is a fair point. I don't really agree with the entirety of it (and never specified it had to be three years, just that I wouldn't go longer than 3), but I can see where you're coming from.

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