September 23, 200916 yr • The Marlins plan to make a multiyear offer to Josh Johnson, who's eligible for free agency after 2011, and we hear he would be receptive to a four-year, $50 million deal. But it would be surprising if Florida offered that much over four years. In arbitration, Johnson could get $4 million-plus this winter and $10 million-plus next. If he doesn't sign an extension, ``our expectation is he will sign one of the two or three biggest free agent contracts ever for a pitcher,'' agent Matt Sosnick said. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/columnists/barry-jackson/story/1246620-p2.html ------------------- Clearly this blurb is coming from Sosnick who is posturing already to try and get $50 million over 4. Which is not going to happen. Secondly, it looks like the low arbitration projection is going to be more realistic then the median/high projections I had. I think one explanation of this is, JJ's current 3.15 era ranks 17th in baseball. In 2008, this would have been 12th. In 2007 9th. In 2006 5th. In 2005 10th. In 2004 8th. Basically, this has been the most pitching intensive season of the decade. And in a comparison argument, yea Johnson is great. But a lot of great guys are out there now. I'm thinking this is going to make a significant difference with Johnson and Nolasco. So if Johnson is going to make $4.50-4.75 in arbitration next year, let's say he is going to follow the Zambrano model and make $10-11 million in 2011, and then as a free agent pitcher be worth around $16-18 million per season. Adding all that up, adds to the $50 million Sosnick wants. That would not happen with a a 2 year arbitration buyout. I would imagine the Marlins offer something like this 2009 $4.5 2010 9 2011 13 2012 14.5 2013 14 (option, 1 buyout) This is a 4/$42, 5/$55, deal. This is above Greinke, the highest comparable (4/$38). This is slightly below by $1-2 million what I projected for a contract back in June. But I think this is a bit safer after seeing a blurb basically credited by his agent at $4 million + in 2010, rather than mid $5 million. I'm kind of shocked Johnson is 17th in era this year with a 3.15. But hey, I'll take any sort of comparison to try and keep him down so we can keep an extra arbitration player in 2010.
September 23, 200916 yr While not unexpected, good to see the Marlins are expected to make the offer. And great news on the arbitration figures! Saving $1 MM+ should be enough to resign Anibal if they weren't already planning to (I know the moves don't happen in a vacuum, I'm just saying.......)
September 23, 200916 yr I'm just glad the Marlins are interested in offering him a long term deal! That's great!
September 23, 200916 yr Will be awesome if we sign him, I just pray he doesn't get hurt right after we sign him. Man that would suck.
September 23, 200916 yr It is of huge importance that we do lock up JJ so we have the comfort and knowledge that every 5th day for the next few years we can run out one of the premier pitchers in baseball.
September 23, 200916 yr Like that were attempting to sign long term, but health is an issue hear.. I doubt he takes it anways
September 23, 200916 yr If I'm JJ I take the deal. Guaranteed money is always a good thing especially if I'm a pitcher who went through tommy john. Even w/out surgery I take this deal. Set for life vs taking a risk to get a few mil more? Nah no thanks.
September 23, 200916 yr Author If I'm JJ I take the deal. Guaranteed money is always a good thing especially if I'm a pitcher who went through tommy john. Even w/out surgery I take this deal. Set for life vs taking a risk to get a few mil more? Nah no thanks. This is the big one - set for life. $40 million is set for life money, even if you could potentially make bonkers money in free agency post 2011. There is a lot bigger difference between $4.5 million and $42 million, than $42 million and $110 million. With the possibility to get the $110 two years down the road. That's all I'm saying. If the Marlins offer more than $40 over 4 years, JJ will take that offer. He is absolutely crazy if he doesn't. Sosnick's only hope here is to try and get as much over $40 as he can.
September 23, 200916 yr Like that were attempting to sign long term, but health is an issue hear.. I doubt he takes it anways I'm actually not that worried about Josh. I know the TJ thing happened, but that was really a 1.5 year long injury he was dealing with. Guys who have had shoulder injuries and other similar problems are much more bothersome to me than once having the TJ surgery. Besides, the absolute only way we can hope to compete going forward is to have an ace like Johnson. We have absolutely no potential aces on our roster besides him.
September 23, 200916 yr One more season then trade.The players we can get in return will surpass just keeping Josh Johnson.Trust me, we will be better off trading him, Unlike Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla.
September 23, 200916 yr One more season then trade.The players we can get in return will surpass just keeping Josh Johnson.Trust me, we will be better off trading him, Unlike Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla. Could you explain how?
September 23, 200916 yr One more season then trade.The players we can get in return will surpass just keeping Josh Johnson.Trust me, we will be better off trading him, Unlike Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla. Could you explain how? He can't. He's just saying that to be annoying.
September 23, 200916 yr Author One more season then trade.The players we can get in return will surpass just keeping Josh Johnson.Trust me, we will be better off trading him, Unlike Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla. You're an embarrassment
September 23, 200916 yr Are you forgetting who the Marlins owner is?!!!!!!!.We can get a great grade A outfielder, and grade A starting pitcher.
September 23, 200916 yr Author Are you forgetting who the Marlins owner is?!!!!!!!.We can get a great grade A outfielder, and grade A starting pitcher. We don't have payroll problems coming up, and we have a new stadium. We could get a potential grade A outfielder and a potential grade A starting pitcher. Or we could keep a grade A starting pitcher about to enter his prime. It's stupid to trade him. Hanley and Johnson are pieces 1 and 2 of the core. You build teams around them.
September 24, 200916 yr Are you forgetting who the Marlins owner is?!!!!!!!.We can get a great grade A outfielder, and grade A starting pitcher. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. That's the mantra said by many in the scouting community and the reason is that there is incredible uncertainty with any pitcher who hasn't performed for several years in the majors because there are any number of ways that talented arms can fail, and certainly injuries can be a big part of that. This uncertainty is far greater than that surrounding hitting prospects. Out of all the pitching prospects we saw come into the ranks in 2006, only Johnson and Nolasco are really still going strong. Anibal Sanchez was an injury bust, although the way he dealt with his injury issues was also a factor. Scott Olsen pretty much sucks. Yusmeiro Petit is below average. There are a whole list of guys that just haven't been effective. As much as everyone hails what we have done, the Marlins prospect only approach hasn't resulted in a playoff season and the only way we are ever going to make that happen is to have an ace in the fold like Johnson. We need much more than him to make the playoffs, that much is clearly evident, but getting there without him is unbelievably harder. And no matter who you bring in prospect wise, you're going to have to wait years for him to mature into a frontline role if he is even capable of it. I also think it bears mentioning that by some measures we have an above average number of young pitchers yet most of them, despite their perceived talent level, have been ineffective this year except for Johnson and Nolasco. That should explain the percentages pretty clearly. Josh Johnson is premium talent, and premium talent is the only way you win championships. Just like we'd be crazy to deal Ramirez, we'd be crazy to deal Johnson if we can sign him.
September 24, 200916 yr If the Marlins are indeed considering making him an offer, please do the right thing and shut him down for the season immediately.
September 24, 200916 yr If the Marlins are indeed considering making him an offer, please do the right thing and shut him down for the season immediately. Yeah, this.
September 24, 200916 yr Honeslty, 4 years 40 million is a fair offer, or 5 years 50 million--- with bonuses for JJ for reachin a win plateau each year, an innings plateau---as well as awards bonuses. Say each only gets the bonus each year he does it. He gets it in 2010, he gets the bonus. He has to reach them again in 2011 to get the bonus again. 15 Wins= 1 Million More each season he does it. 180 Innings= 1 Million more each season he does it. Cy Young= 1 Million more each season he does it. All Star= 550k each season he does it. NLCS/ALCS MVP= 500k each time he does it. WS MVP= 1 Mil each time he does it. In that regard, he can make upwards of 5 million extra in a championship season, should be happy.
September 24, 200916 yr Are you forgetting who the Marlins owner is?!!!!!!!.We can get a great grade A outfielder, and grade A starting pitcher. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. That's the mantra said by many in the scouting community and the reason is that there is incredible uncertainty with any pitcher who hasn't performed for several years in the majors because there are any number of ways that talented arms can fail, and certainly injuries can be a big part of that. This uncertainty is far greater than that surrounding hitting prospects. Out of all the pitching prospects we saw come into the ranks in 2006, only Johnson and Nolasco are really still going strong. Anibal Sanchez was an injury bust, although the way he dealt with his injury issues was also a factor. Scott Olsen pretty much sucks. Yusmeiro Petit is below average. There are a whole list of guys that just haven't been effective. As much as everyone hails what we have done, the Marlins prospect only approach hasn't resulted in a playoff season and the only way we are ever going to make that happen is to have an ace in the fold like Johnson. We need much more than him to make the playoffs, that much is clearly evident, but getting there without him is unbelievably harder. And no matter who you bring in prospect wise, you're going to have to wait years for him to mature into a frontline role if he is even capable of it. I also think it bears mentioning that by some measures we have an above average number of young pitchers yet most of them, despite their perceived talent level, have been ineffective this year except for Johnson and Nolasco. That should explain the percentages pretty clearly. Josh Johnson is premium talent, and premium talent is the only way you win championships. Just like we'd be crazy to deal Ramirez, we'd be crazy to deal Johnson if we can sign him. Nolasco still really going strong? With a 5.34 ERA and 22 HRs?
September 24, 200916 yr Author Honeslty, 4 years 40 million is a fair offer, or 5 years 50 million--- with bonuses for JJ for reachin a win plateau each year, an innings plateau---as well as awards bonuses. Say each only gets the bonus each year he does it. He gets it in 2010, he gets the bonus. He has to reach them again in 2011 to get the bonus again. 15 Wins= 1 Million More each season he does it. 180 Innings= 1 Million more each season he does it. Cy Young= 1 Million more each season he does it. All Star= 550k each season he does it. NLCS/ALCS MVP= 500k each time he does it. WS MVP= 1 Mil each time he does it. In that regard, he can make upwards of 5 million extra in a championship season, should be happy. So you want to give him more than $50 million for 4 years with this incentive recommendation. NO
September 24, 200916 yr If the Marlins are indeed considering making him an offer, please do the right thing and shut him down for the season immediately. Yeah, this. Wouldn't you guys say that that sends the wrong message to the fanbase? Call it a long shot or whatever, but the Marlins still aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Other young pitchers (on teams that have been eliminated) haven't even been shutdown...I highly doubt the Marlins shutdown Johnson.
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