August 12, 201016 yr I was just messing with Stanton's numbers. If he can perform consistently at the rate he has so far this year, then a full season's stats looks pretty impressive. I know he went in a pretty bad slump soon after his call up, and who knows how often that kind of thing will occur. I would like to see a little higher avg out of him long term, but i know he's fighting an up hill battle bc he struggled so much early. Here is what I came up with: based on a 550 ab season, which can be lower, or higher, due to unpredictable factors, I have him with .260 avg, 143 hits, 32 hr's, 102 rbi's, 41 2b's. I can live with that kind of production. What are your thoughts? Also, do you think he will out perform or under-perform this prediction.
August 12, 201016 yr I expect a baseline .250/.350/.525, with really really scary peak years when he randomly hits .270-.280. Always going to whiff which will keep the average down, but the power is undeniable.
August 12, 201016 yr .350/.550/.900 (1.450) +35 UZR 7.0 Speed RAR: 140 WAR: 14 Come on mystikol, be realistic... SLG% is too low.
August 12, 201016 yr Keep in mind he's been hitting low in the lineup with little protection as well. It's still early. Pitchers will adjust to him, but I have no doubt he'll adjust back as well. You don't make it to the majors at his age on power alone - he's done a great job learning the other things to level-up through the system - and now the lineup. Everyone makes the Reynolds comparison because of the Power and K's, but Reynolds came out and publicly stated that he's not going to change his game to cut down on his strikeouts. In the last year he's gone from a .250/.260 hitter to hitting .220 this year. He should probably revisit the strikeout approach. I don't see Stanton sharing that attitude. He wants to put the ball in play. I'll let you numbers guys handle the serious projection work, but as we head into the new ballpark I think .260/35R's is realistic. I think his RBI numbers will be off the charts with guys like Hanley/Morrison/Coghlan getting on in front of him.
August 12, 201016 yr I expect a baseline .250/.350/.525, with really really scary peak years when he randomly hits .270-.280. Always going to whiff which will keep the average down, but the power is undeniable. He's basically putting those numbers up right now as just a rookie. Stanton can EASILY be a .900+ OPS player as early as next year. I think the BA if right, but lower the OBP and higher the slugging % and I'd say that will be his baseline. .260/.330/.550 baseline is what I think he should be capable of doing over the span of an entire career. He'll always strike out a lot, but he has so much raw power it's insane. I don't like jumping the gun on young players and building too high of expectations, but I honestly expect him to be a consistent 35+ home run per year player with a 30+ doubles. The sky is the limit for this kid, and knowing Stanton he'll work hard to exceed even that.
August 12, 201016 yr Stanton's strikeouts will go down and his walks will go up as he goes through the league a few times and the poor pitch recognition from inexperience decreases. If Uggla can do it, then certainly a more talented and more fundamentally sound Stanton will as well. Stanton is going to get a lot of hits with the insanely hot grounders and low lines he produces. He will be good for forty dingers. Giancarlo will do 280/400/550 easy by 2012. And then, who knows. It will all come down to pitch recognition and lineup protection.
August 12, 201016 yr For comparison sake: AB/BA/HR/RBI/OBP/SLG SO Miguel Cabrera 314 ABs, 0.268BA 12 HR, 62RBI, 0.325/0.468 84 SO Adam Dunn 244 ABs, 0.262BA, 19HR, 43RBI, 0.370/0.578 74 SO Ryan Howard 312ABs, 0.288BA, 22HR, 63RBI, 0.356/0.567 100 SO Stanton on pace: 371 ABs, 0.259BA, 22HR, 69 RBI, 0.332/0.519 131 SO I dont think he projects exactly like any of these guys, but his stats show a good projection in terms of rookie years.
August 12, 201016 yr I expect a baseline .250/.350/.525, with really really scary peak years when he randomly hits .270-.280. Always going to whiff which will keep the average down, but the power is undeniable. So like a 6 WAR (I'm estimating based on his current WAR and other stuff on fangraphs)? That's just silly. Hanley: 6 WAR Stanton: 6 WAR JJ: 6 WAR Uggla: 4 WAR Gaby: 3 WAR That's a tremendous core.
August 12, 201016 yr For comparison sake: AB/BA/HR/RBI/OBP/SLG SO Miguel Cabrera 314 ABs, 0.268BA 12 HR, 62RBI, 0.325/0.468 84 SO Adam Dunn 244 ABs, 0.262BA, 19HR, 43RBI, 0.370/0.578 74 SO Ryan Howard 312ABs, 0.288BA, 22HR, 63RBI, 0.356/0.567 100 SO Stanton on pace: 371 ABs, 0.259BA, 22HR, 69 RBI, 0.332/0.519 131 SO I dont think he projects exactly like any of these guys, but his stats show a good projection in terms of rookie years. Howard was 25 that year, so he's a bad comp. Cabrera is a below-average fielder, and Dunn is horribad. And they are both slow as sh*t. Stanton is going to be a very good OF, and he's slightly-above-average in speed. With his work ethic, I bet he becomes an above-average baserunner, too. So, whatever the raw hitting numbers show (I'm not picking on your comparables per se), Stanton gets a bit of a bump from speed/defense. And when you contemplate that, it's scary.
August 12, 201016 yr I just can't wait to go to a game where he hits a screamer....sounds great on TV
August 12, 201016 yr Rotoworld: Mike Stanton was 5-for-5 with a home run in the Marlins' win over the Nationals Wednesday. He had a pair of doubles and singles and a long home run to left field, driving in four on the night and scoring twice. Stanton entered the game with a .239 average but saw that mark jump up 20 points to .259. He's still striking out in over 1/3 of his plate appearances and in reality should probably be at Triple-A right now, but the talent here is undeniable. :lol :lol :lol
August 12, 201016 yr The guy hitting 296/.400/.630/1.030 in the second half should be in AAA. God RotoWorld has the worst analysis.
August 12, 201016 yr The guy hitting 296/.400/.630/1.030 in the second half should be in AAA. God RotoWorld has the worst analysis. I wonder if they are just saying that because of his age and that he skipped AAA altogether. Regardless, a stupid thing to say
August 12, 201016 yr The guy hitting 296/.400/.630/1.030 in the second half should be in AAA. God RotoWorld has the worst analysis. I wonder if they are just saying that because of his age and that he skipped AAA altogether. Regardless, a stupid thing to say He is the first player ever under the age of 21 to knock in 4 runs AND go 5 for 5 in the same game with 2 doubles and a Home Run... Yeah, he doesn't belong in the bigs
August 12, 201016 yr The guy hitting 296/.400/.630/1.030 in the second half should be in AAA. God RotoWorld has the worst analysis. No one in the MLB even has a slugging percentage that high. By this logic, Mark Reynolds probably doesn't belong to be in the big leagues too.
August 13, 201016 yr I expect a baseline .250/.350/.525, with really really scary peak years when he randomly hits .270-.280. Always going to whiff which will keep the average down, but the power is undeniable. So like a 6 WAR (I'm estimating based on his current WAR and other stuff on fangraphs)? That's just silly. Hanley: 6 WAR Stanton: 6 WAR JJ: 6 WAR Uggla: 4 WAR Gaby: 3 WAR That's a tremendous core. Probably a bit high by 1 with Uggla and Gaby (but that's still good for both of them), but I expect big strides with Morrison, Coghlan, and Maybin turning into good starting players. Back of the rotation has plenty of talent with Volatad, West, Anibal, Miller, Sanabia, and Hand coming fast. This team needs a # 2 (or Nolasco consistency), a veteran lefty and righty in the pen, and not to skimp on the bench. Everything else is in place. Dominguez, Cousins, and the AA relievers working out becomes a bonus.
August 13, 201016 yr in his peak i can see him hitting .290 .360 obp .520 slg with 50 hr's, 115 rbi's and 10 sb's. i expect the k's to go down with the rave reviews of his work ethic
August 13, 201016 yr in his peak i can see him hitting .290 .360 obp .520 slg with 50 hr's, 115 rbi's and 10 sb's. i expect the k's to go down with the rave reviews of his work ethic In all honesty, I think his average will never be higher than .280 in a year. But his OBP could approach .400 if his plate discipline improves. Those K's will easily be turned into BB's. A lot of Stanton's K's this year were from him chasing pitches out of the zone by being too aggressive. I expect that to change at least by 2012.
August 13, 201016 yr I'm expecting something like this in his prime: .300 AVG | .440 OBP | .670 SLG | 1.100 OPS | 10.0 WAR | 15.0 UZR | 6.5 SPD
August 13, 201016 yr They say the Great American Ballpark is a good hitters park, so I'm looking forward to seeing if Stanton can hit a "Reggie Abercrombie" bomb there into the upper deck
August 13, 201016 yr I expect a baseline .250/.350/.525, with really really scary peak years when he randomly hits .270-.280. Always going to whiff which will keep the average down, but the power is undeniable. So like a 6 WAR (I'm estimating based on his current WAR and other stuff on fangraphs)? That's just silly. Hanley: 6 WAR Stanton: 6 WAR JJ: 6 WAR Uggla: 4 WAR Gaby: 3 WAR That's a tremendous core. Probably a bit high by 1 with Uggla and Gaby (but that's still good for both of them), but I expect big strides with Morrison, Coghlan, and Maybin turning into good starting players. Back of the rotation has plenty of talent with Volatad, West, Anibal, Miller, Sanabia, and Hand coming fast. This team needs a # 2 (or Nolasco consistency), a veteran lefty and righty in the pen, and not to skimp on the bench. Everything else is in place. Dominguez, Cousins, and the AA relievers working out becomes a bonus. Argggh it feels like we're SO CLOSE! Uggla is 4.1 this year, 2.9 last year, 4.6 the year before. I think for the next couple of years he should be good for 3.5+ on average, although his defense may decline rapidly.
August 13, 201016 yr in his peak i can see him hitting .290 .360 obp .520 slg with 50 hr's, 115 rbi's and 10 sb's. i expect the k's to go down with the rave reviews of his work ethic In all honesty, I think his average will never be higher than .280 in a year. But his OBP could approach .400 if his plate discipline improves. Those K's will easily be turned into BB's. A lot of Stanton's K's this year were from him chasing pitches out of the zone by being too aggressive. I expect that to change at least by 2012. I think there is a possibility that in his prime he hits .300. We'll all expect that his discipline improves and that will hit K's down that pull his BA down. The thing that makes me think he can hit .300 someday is that he just hits the ball SO hard that he's turning what would usually be groundouts into base hits. Hell, he's getting base hits hitting it right at fielders.
August 13, 201016 yr I think he can easily do better than a .350 OBP. He strikes out a lot, but his walk numbers are decent. I think he'll eventually be putting up an OBP in the .380 range and bottom out around .365-.370 range.
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